_________________________________________________________________________________________ Jim Goodman's "PSYCLE" missive #1 created Dec.18, 1997 (714) 786-2577 specific, valuable, actionable, directly applicable future price predictive commentary. and Significant Disclaimers must be acknowledged, as to opinions shared herein. "PSYCLE SENSE" since mid-December, as expected/predicted, equities have split, into two, exploitable parts--- the "still-loved by the street, previously strong but now topping-but they don't know it" sectors, and, the used to be loved by the street near their top, and now are depressed-scary sectors....dig? going back decades, this is quite normal, this time of year....since "PSYCLE" traders have NO emotion, and ignore 95 % of all "fundamentals/news junk", our paths are clear.... be sure to read all introductory/background "PSYCLE" material (see bullets) to better understand and appreciate how and why we do what we do, for you.... Buy Long, for cash, on margin, and/or, L.T. in-the-money-only Calls Options where suitable, a package of truly depresseds, and/or "exhaustion V bottom" stocks, in favored industry groups.....and/or, buy long, L.T., in-the-money Only, Puts Options, where suitable, on extended issues, all only, with close stops, always diversified.... At a minimum, normal tax-selling bounces should occur in many depresseds, in the Dec. to Feb. period, and, many extended issues should decline towards their normal support, around their still-rising, 200 day moving averages.....at this stage, one should NOT, just "buy and forget long term" anything....especially issues which have not yet had a correction....we have NO attachments to any issues, nor "scenarios", right? Last, the recent "Asian" drops/story, is NO different, than a/the normal stage 6 or 7, "PSYCLE sm" "exhaustion drop-on-over-Media-coverage" drop, in the Mexican, Japan, Silicon Valley, Golds, issues, in recent years....as I teach, ALL final drops, in ANY industry group, occurs the same way, historically....No overreaction, NO need to waste time following reported media stories, but YES, to knowing, that the lows are likely to occur, just AS the media and the 95 % are most scared/bearish, right ? cool.... Have you learned ANYTHING about how bottoms/tops tend to form ? obviously, the KEY, is to learn, the long-existing, repeating signs/patterns, and remove all potentially damaging emotions and misbeliefs you may have, which prevent you from buying near lows/putting near highs, PSY-choligcally....call me immediately for help, with the long, or short side, of this market....it's pretty simple here, with close stops.... * Actions you should be (have been) taking here: (always view their 1 & 2-year charts) 1) on the Long side: where suitable, you can BUY, Long, near recent Lows Only, these: in depressed Computers/Semis/Techs/www: SHVA, OAKT, NSCP, ASND, CUBE, RATL, CYMI., ISSI, MSN, DGN, UTR, SKM, SGI., MU, CS, in Precious Metals: CRRS, ASA, BGO, CAU, VGZ, REO, RYO, TVX, ECO, HM, in Steels: NSS, WS, BS, in Retails: PETM, ANN, some are "PSYCLE sm" stage 6 or 7, EVB's, some are pullbacks after stage 2 breakouts, some are double-bottoms, some are in longer bases....always with close stops.... and, we are also watching these, for better potential EVB's soon ? in depressed Techs, Metals, Health, Leisure, Asian: DROOY, CLCDF, OXHP, BOST, BOMZ, ESOL, TLCM, RAYS, ORCL, ALSC, FTPS, ALDA, SPCT, GTIS, KLIC, QSII., EFII, AXC, DGX, SWW, CYM, LH, LTV, LXR, SME, CCC, NRD, AMD, MMG, CPX, APM, CHK, FRO, LSI., IVX, CIR, NIN, EC, AA, KF, N..... 2) to exploit the short/down side, we prefer L.T., in-the-money Puts Options, and never "sell short", always Only near their high, with close stops, on new highs/breaks of patterns, diversified: (note: some of these are already down, and therefore too late to begin puts, and some are shorter-term rolling tops, and some are double-tops, check out their 1-year chart patterns for best/educational benefit). Bank./Insur./Finls.: WAMU, TROW, SIVB, LEH, UBS, TMK, AGC, BBI., IMP, Techs: SEPR, QWST, WCII., CGX, Retails: BBBY, CBRL, SWY, ABS, KSS, TBL, MAY, CNS, WAG, HD, Health: ALCD, AVEI., RGCI., PFE, SGP, CAH, MCK, GDT, others: IFSIA, PHB, HTN, KMT, AES, OI. G., obviously, fewer great, rolling umbrella "PSYCLE" tops recently, with many "Techs" already having fallen, to either, their 200 DMA's, or having already had huge drops already....check out the charts on these issues, which I previously specifically gave out in recent months, near their rolling/umbrella tops, for your future educational benefit: DANKY, BAANF, CBTSY, CNTO, BBRC, STGE, CTRX, SEBL, MSFT, DELL, FAST, PSSI., APC, NBR, HAL, MRE, ABF, FHT, ADI., RHI., LU....besides some extended Techs, I also had specifically given the top in extended Energy/Oil Service issues, which were VG S.T. H & S tops, as the 95 % were still in love with them.... * so, here is my inaugural WWFN missive, for your benefit....please understand, my lists change constantly, and I cannot be responsible for your actions if we do not have a formal arrangement....call me any time, to learn more about me and my "PSYCLE sm," historical, or personal, investing/trading benefits....and have a great holiday period.... Jim Goodman 1988-1998 all rights reserved ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Jim Goodman's updated "PSYCLE sm" missive # 2, created Jan. 9, 1998 following up previous ideas shared, some new groups added, same basic song.... plenty of specific actions one can take....Longs near lows, Puts near highs....again, significant, disclaimers must be acknowledged, as to any output herein.... * first--- read, re-read, printout my last missive, and all my CUMULATIVE updates, and refer back to it/them, as you read this update....check all chart patterns....also, read all enclosed educational/background 'bulleted' info.... * "PSYCLE SENSE sm": as expected/predicted, many extended issues have indeed fallen, in industry groups suggested, while many depresseds continue to carve out potential buyable bases....also, the "Asian" thing unfolds as normal/expected....no biggie, if one is properly positioned, as usual....everything occurs, as things have historically unfolded, and this is just another normal Dec./Jan. period, with the "latest" overblown crisis Media item.....right ? what have YOU been doing lately ? * Actions you could/should have been/be taking/taken (always via 1 & 2-year charts): (some previously given last time, some are new, remember, lists change) 1) to exploit the Long side: where suitable, you can still BUY, long, near recent lows ONLY, with close stops, diversified, these: * in depressed Computers/Semis/Techs/www: KLAC, SPCT, CYMI., ISSI, EFII., KLIC, QSII., MSN, DGN, WDC, UTR....but, took, NSCP, ORCL, ALSC, DGX, SGI., CS, off pot. buy list, before "bought", because they broke....while, RATL, TLCM, SHVA, ASND, SKM, SWW, MU, rose already....too late to buy them now....and/but, OAKT, AXC, must strengthen/revalidate....eh....and, GTIS, IPEC, TER, APM, AMD, LSI., might be shaping up, but may need more time/work....overall, well outperforming....and, added, GEMS, BXH, BMC * in precious metals: looking for potential double-bottoms, in: CRRS, SSRIF, BGO, ECO, AZC, RYO, TVX, but most others have no base yet, or hit new lows, so did not buy any of them yet, or, must strengthen/revalidate again....did buy DROOY near low. * in Steels: NSS, BS, WS, up/still just fine/buys near lows, also, PKX, ZEUS, GNV, BYX, NS, near their lows....I am still the only person rec'dg. this group down here, always a good sign. * in retails, health, others: RAYS, OXHP, BOST, ALDA, VVUS, LXR, CPX, MSN, CNU, KF, AW, still buyable near lows only, but, NIN, CCC, CHK, FRO, EC, AA, removed, as made new lows, and SME, BBA, IVX, need more work....and, ESOL, already up. * "LESSON" to learn: especially in Dec./Jan. yearly, my "PSYCLE sm"; recognizes "EVB's," exhaustion V bottoms", dig ? no base, but cathartic volume, after huge drops, tax-selling, etc., and can bounce just on fumes, therefrom, dig ? here's latest list, always with close stops, and NO short-term options: CUBE, STMI., FLM, DJT, NWK, IMG, ZE, UM, CY, (there are others, but these will do) 2) to exploit the short/down side: gave U a real good list last time here, let's review: banks/finls.: WAMU, TROW, SIVB, USB, AGC, BBI., IMP, down nicely, you should have taken BIG, quick put gains in WAMU, TROW, USB, IMP, early Mon., 12th....just missed the Brokers as puts, all fell as expcected/predicted....added FITB, ER, techs: SEPR, CGX, falling properly, but WCII., QWST, removed as broke pattern.... added, SEPR, LGTO, ACCC, SEBL, CIEN, CZT, health: AVEI., RCGI., CAH, MCK, GDT, fell as expected/predicted here....added, SFSK, ALCD, MEDI., but removed SGP, PFE, as some Drugs still not ready to Put, yet.... retails: ABS, TBL, KSS, CNS, WAG, SWY, MAY, fell as expected....but, BBBY, CBRL, broke out, QS losses, and, added, AMZN, NOBE, SYY, IGT, others: HTN, PHB, KMT, AES, fell as figured, but IFSIA, OI., G., aborted.... added, NOBE, COKE, IGT, HD, near recent highs.... new group: tele./bells: MCIC, BTY, BLS, USW, FON, AOL, I am the first for these, new group: media: NYT.A, TWX, HTN, TRB, EFX, I am again the first.... some Utilities, Housing, Trans., may be in topping phase ? I would, again, be the first. and, previously suggested Energy & Oil Svc. issues down even further from given tops. 3) again, re-view the actual 1-year charts of all above issues, to learn the patterns.... please understand/appreciate why/the way I do things, and what I try to share/teach people able to remove all preconceived incorrect notions, misbeliefs, and emotions, ignoring 95 % of everything everyone else tries to let into their brains, which, often, have little or no directly-applicable-price-predictive-value, and are therefore pretty much useless wastes of your valuable time, dig ? to learn more about "the way things have most always been/evolved in historical fact", I exist to help others.....thanks.... till next time, contact me if desire more info., or whatever.... -J.G. Jim Goodman 1988-1998 all rights reserved Jim Goodman's update "PSYCLE sm" missive # 3, created Feb. 22, 1998 following up previous ideas shared, some new groups/issues added, plenty of specific actions one can take, longside and the "put" side, Longs near lows, Puts near highs.... again, significant disclaimers must be acknowledged, as to any outputs herein....all Hypothetical "trades" given, are Hypothetical in principal, but often doable in reality. * First--- read, re-read, printout all my "* bulleted * items, missives, and all my CUMULATIVE past updates, and refer back to them....it is YOUR responsibiltiy to learn all "PSYCLE sm" tenets BEFORE considering trying to act on anything, and having checked all individual charts as well, in the spirit of lifetime EDUCATIONAL benefit.... remember, I share ALL pertinent ideas, not just a few, to give you a more full picture/illustration of what is really exploitable within the overall equity markets. * "PSYCLE SENSE sm": as expected/predicted, two major events since late last year have occured: first, many depressed Techs/Comp./Semis, which I first gave out near their lows, have indeed risen, smartly, right as "the 95 %" were incorrectly overfearful about the "Asian thing", which is, again, exactly as my "PSYCLE sm" teaches bottoms are often made, dig ? and/but, many have recently reached initial upside resistance levels, and have been Hypothetically sold, right ? NO emotion, NO greed, NO scenarios, NO hopes....I was, again, among the very few, or only, or first, guys, to correctly predict and exploit this S.T., recently....how did YOU do recently, among such tax-bouncers ? therefore, there are certainly much FEWER great depressed basing buys now....where were you last Dec, when it was like shooting fish in a barrel ? learn, proper industry group rotation, our way.... second, the rolling top in many extended issues, especially "interest-sensitives" continues to unfold....as with the bottoms in the Steels, Techs, etc., which only I gave out near recent lows, I seem to see almost no one else out there, bearish on some Banks, Insur., Utils., Telecoms....Most everything happens as it most always has....one of investing's great secrets I freely share for your benefit....remember, only I follow-up all previously mentioned issues, for your EDUCATIONAL benefit.... third, again, we NEVER "trade indexes" nor even consider "the averages". fourth, we NEVER "chase/pay up"....we buy near the lows, or Not at all.... * Actions you could/should have been/be taking/taken (always via 1 & 2 year charts): (some new, some previously given here, remember, lists change often) 1) to exploit the LONG side: where suitable, you can still BUY long, ONLY right near recent lows ONLY, always diversified, with close stops, these: * in depressed Energy/oil. svcs.: TDW, UNT, SAB, SEI., watching others....as I was among the Very Few who correctly gave the Oil. Svcs. as Puts, last Fall, I feel quite qualified to see these, now in probable stage 5 or 6 bottoms here....a new group....remember, we only buy the truly Depressed ones, and Never the "big names, nor high-priced" issues, in each ind. group....as you know, I am often the first/early, even when I am correct....Lesson: there is not supposed to be "great news" near bottoms, right ? learn, "the PSYCLE sm", PSY-chological/sentiment.... * in tech./comp./semis, etc.: SPCT, MATH, CTT, AMD, APM, DPW, BXH, SWW....as I said, many others, like, KLAC, CYMI., ISSI., EFII., KLIC, QSII., UTR, WDC, GTIS, IPEC, SKM, ASND, SHVA, RATL, TLCM, MU, TER, LSI., SGI., CS, already way up (nice gains 4 U if U bt. them when I specifically suggested them here previously), and just missed ORCL, while, had B.E. trade in DGN, and, OAKT, AXC, still small losses.... but, still Not yet, in, DGX, ALSC, NSCP....so, did YOU also correctly buy into the "Asian scare" ? if not, I have much to teach you/help you with.... * in health-relateds: CEPH, CNU, EAR, TOX,....while VVUS, OXHP, LXR, IVX, are up real nicely...."no one out there" likes the HMO's nor health issues....nuff said.... * in metals: VGZ, DKT, GNV, AS, EC, AR, AS, N.,....my "Steels" (and DROOY) which I was the first/only to predict near lows, rose nicely: NSS, PKX, WS, BS, BYX, NS, which I gave you, for beautiful gains (sold).... but, still Not yet, in ZEUS, FCX/A, and/but, many other Golds, acting weaker, and probably no longer buys....eh.... * others: AAM, (finl.), BOST, DEN (rest./food), WRE, RWT (r.e.i.t.), PTB (consumer), FFS, LFB (forest), MFN, NIN (retail)....while, the ALDA, RAYS, ESOL, CPX, SME, BAA, CCC, AW, KF, which I gave U here near their lows, up nicely as well....neat. * last, of the "cathartic bottoms" list, from last time here: CUBE, STMI., FLM, DJT, IMG, ZE, CY, up, and UM, NWK, still Not yet ready.....again, the "LESSON" to learn, for the umpteenth time, is to buy, depressed, basing issues, in proper groups, in late Nov./Dec., for likely tax-bounces therefrom....well, did you ? have you ever done this ? what HAVE you been doing the last few years instead ? so....I gave you 39 specifcally buyable issues near their lows, with only 4 losers, since last time here....and you are doing what, instead ? 2) to exploit the DOWN side, in Puts, where suitable, etc.: near their highs ONLY: (always diversified, L.T., in-the-money Puts ONLY, where suitable, w/close stops when/if issues hit new highs or abort top patterns....right ?) * among Banks/Insur./Utils./Telecoms (interest-sensitives, right ?): TCOMA, CMCSA, TROW, WAMU, RNB, FITB, PCG, FON, XL, STI., PEG, BK, T., are/remain Puttable.... ....but, Not, in, NGE, TMK, ER, too strong.... * among techs: CBTSY, SEPR, LCOS, QWST, ACCC, ORBI., DEC, SLR....but Not, in, PAYX....while CIEN, CZT, CGX, fell big time....neat.... * Drugs (another new group?): TCIVY, SFSK, IDPH, ZEN, BMY, MCK, AZA.... * Others (retail, etc.): MCCRK, DLTR, ACL, PBI., ITT, GWW, WLP, AMZN.... * while, just missed the predicted pot. top in Airlines....hey, can't catch 'em all.... ....among others given last time: ALCD, MEDI., LGTO, SEBL, COKE, MCIC, AOL, bells, HD, TWX, TRB, just never set up, and broke out instead, and were removed from pot. Put list, B4 "bt.", and, EFX, NYT, PHB, SYY, NOBE, IGT, media, just too iffy still.... summary: a nicely 'split" market again, exploitable in both directions at once, with stops, the "PSYCLE sm" way....but, Not a great-looking market overall anyway.... ....so holding above avg. cash positions here....but also some longs and puts.... Again--- take the time, LOOK at the past 1-year chart patterns of all mentioned issues, past and present.... I am giving you a gift here....take advantage of it.... call me if desired (714) 786-2577, till next time, learn my "PSYCLE sm".... " please understand appreciate why/the way I do things, for others' benefit, and what I try to share/teach people able to remove all preconceived incorrect notions, misbeliefs, and emotions, ignoring 95 % of everything everyone else tries to let into their brains, which, often, have little or no directly-applicable-price-predictive-value, and are therefore pretty much useless wastes of your valuable time, dig ? to learn more about "the way things have most always been/evolved in historical fact", I exist, to help, others....thanks for your interest in trading/investing excellence...." Jim Goodman 1988-1998 all rights reserved _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________