1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

These NL's will now be called, "2001: a trading odessey", in homage to one of the greatest movies of all time....

As predicted, we have gotten, and continue to get, many more 'closet pops' in our stocks which NO one else around was even aware exsited as EVB's or bases recently, as the got/get more negative only after big drops, as usual in the "PSYCLE sm"....a lot of money mgrs. and people are gonna look back a few months from now, and kick themselves for not picking up eaily garnered bargains down here, especially Techs and out-of-favor groups....also note, I added more truly-cheapies to longside list, proving the expected broadening out of our pending advance....I think one mistake, in addition to having 'bought too high without stops', which tons of institutions have done in recent periods, based solely on the reported-by-me-then-in-paraboliic-rises exprience of 1998-1999, pending tax-sales one might 'need', will be, Not at least legging-in among my depressed issues around here....For the umpteeenth time, the idea is to try to BUY near lows, not sell there, unless 'need' tax-savings, especially this time of a year....Buy some things long here ! (and maybe, as you will read below, a Put or two as well ?)

As usual this time of year, seeing plenty of 'fobo's' and 'fobo's' occuring ....fortunately, we have plenty of easily exploitable longs (and some puts) to get here....also note, more Commercial Banks and especially, the Insur. stocks, as toppy, as usual, I am the first/only to notice this emerging trend....plenty of Health/Medical-relateds are also exhibiting S.T. tops at least....yet, while the NASDAQ index's A/D line does NOT look bottomy yet (being mostly big-names, not the depressed ones I like, dig ?), the AMEX index actually looks better....also, how come NO one else I hear/read is noticing the number of new 52- week highs on the NYSE has been rising, and even breaking out !!! ??? but, again, do not ignore the newly-growing-again list of Puttables in section (7) below....and how I added the "MDY" S & P mid-cap index as a potential Puttable....interestingly, for the first time in a long while, I found a bunch of Puttables in my chartbooks late last week and over the weekend - and, from the open Mon., many extended issues dropped....we missed some, herein, only because they dropped gaps from the opening....but no worries....we'll just do the ones still near highs/resistance, yes ? and you could/should have caught a bunch easily recently....

I have been most proud to have given you a plethora of mostly-very-profitable longside ideas in 2000, quite a triumph given that the NASDAQ had its worst year eve ....Meanwhile, we continue to have our smallest puttables list I can ever recall....and, in section (4) below, we see even more recent longside winners, while 'the 95 %' continue too be too timid and/or do not understand what is going on in the markets here....I am here to help, as always....and I look forward to helping y'all even more in the coming year, and I wish you and yours all the best of health, happiness, and prosperity....

got a nice, extra-long, super-specific, helpful bunch of comments on section (2) this time for ya....enjoy,

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) as usual, I am the first/only to give out some depr. Retails/Clothing stocks, popping for ya....neat.... 2) we just got our first expected pullback in the T-bond - just as the masses fall in love with it, late/high, as usual, around 105++, right ? only now, of course, the 'experts' (don't get me started), who hadn't a clue lower, are now calling for 'another 1/4 % drop in rates ahead'....hell, how hard is that to see after it has already occured and they missed it ? oy....but, anyway, as you have been taught, we are nearer to the end, than the beginning, of a big I.R. drop, yes ? the pattern rarely changes.... 3) aren't you glad you got into our Regional Bank stocks long, back in their easily-exploitable bases ? ....4) I continue to be wrong on Nat. Gas prices, which popped over $ 10. mcf, up from around $ 2+ mcf last year, amazing....no comment....obviously, this parabolic cannot last, but not gonna fight it....just not 'chasing up', right ? ....5) that said, this has gotta be one of the toughest "put-side' times I have ever seen, which has been why my 'puttables' list has been properly very small for a while....while hoping for clearer tops to form ahead, but not yet for most....only putting toes into water with Q close tops as usual anyway....and late last week, we saw a bunch for you, finally, neat....

6) looks like I was wrong on some extended Drugs, as puttables, but, as usual, little or no damage.... might some of the extended Financials go that way as well ? with some 'fobo's ' ? ....7) and, looks like I will, as usual, turn out to have been the first guy to have given out the depr. European stocks and Foreign CEMF's from their recent lows, for you herein....as usual, 'the 95 %' will fall in love with these (as they did at their highs a few years ago, before huge drops, right ?), after they are up a bunch more....the pattern rarely changes.... 8) and, Fri. 9 am, CNBC in their yearend-review mentioned how "Airline stocks rose + 38 % in 2000" - interesting, since, as you have been taught by me, 'the 95 %' incorrectly (mis)believe they would be/are 'hurt fundamentally' by much higher fuel costs, yes ? so score yet another one for the "PSYCLE sm", and another loss for everyone else overpaid....

9) also note, I added more cheapie-Golds and non-ferrous Metals and Steel stocks, in section (6) below....and, will CHRS become as BEBE was a while ago ? check it out....re-read my I.G.R. booklet,,,, 10) and, see the growing Puts list of Insurance stocks, section (7) below....as usual, I am the first/only guy seeing this potential trend.... 11) Bill Griffeth CNBC, Mon., 9:33 am, late/high as usual, pointed out how, evidently, the DJ. Util. avg. had its best year, Jan. thru. Dec. 2000, since - get this - 1943....and, of course, had a Util. co. guy on, gushing as if that trend (which, recall, I was first/only to have predicted from double-bottom lows back then, herein, for you, yes ?) will 'continue forever' - get it ? of course, you know what THAT means likely, up ahead, for those stocks, yes ? ....12) last, note the predicted-here-first-as-usual rises among previously depressed Paper stocks, but I say, about to end S.T. here, dig ? as usual, just as 'the experts' just begin to like them.....the pattern rarely changes.....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) CNBC had an 'expert' on Nat. Gas stocks, whom Bill Griffeth actually asked, "so, with N.G. over $ 10, is this an area where investors should begin to invest in now ?" Amazingly inept/late question, as usual, ay ? and, of course, only AFTER big stock-price-rises (many of which I did not predict, BTW), did this analyst answer 'yes'....Understand, his 'fundamental' comments are, have been, and likely will be correct for a while longer - but, their 'stocks' are too high now, and yet he now loves, KEG, BJS, GW, NBR, oy....

2) I didn't need to see the big article by Tom (fill in your negative word here) Petruno in L.A.T. 12/24, titled, "We never learn our lessons, but so what ?" (don't get me started....uh, no, jerk, only YOU (and 'the 95%') never 'learn'.... You wouldn't know a good guy/concept if you saw one....oh, wait, you did -- me.), writing, "wish I could go back and undo that Interent buy at $ 150. stock that is now $ 2.", and, "who did this to us ?", and, "OK, so we'll never learn", and, "we forever wonder why we didn't recognize them (tops/patterns) at that time"....so, we have yet more proof that I have been valuable, and correct, and nice and sharing, and the Media continues to be, well, I can't print what I'd like to say, here....At least he wrote, "we're goverened by basic emotions that haven't changed in eons" (my point exactly....he's such a _______)....He also had the audacity to just/only infer similarity of year 2000, to (only) the 1968 to 1970 'Tech. drops' period....oy....I could go on and on, correctly, but suffice it to say, he teaches NOTHING, shows NOTHING of "D.A.F.P.P.V.", and should be punished big-time, and I should be writing this column....Well, at least maybe I made more $ and helped more people in year 2000 than he did.

3) Fri. 9 am, the new NASDAQ wall-guy, rehashing all the super-high-quality-loved-from-their-tops-because-they-were incorrectly-assumed-bulletproof-stocks, like, WCOM, T, INTC, MSFT, NU, LU, MOT, etc., "You can just hear all the money mgrs. saying about them, 'good riddence'" ....to which I say, likely right at their lows, dig ? ....4) and Mon., CNBC sensationalized, by reporting that 209 mm ATT cable customers "will see their cable rates shoot up + 4 % to + 6 % soon...." ....uh, hey, I hate the monopolistic crap surrounding the Cable jerk-comapnies, in cahoots with Your Govt.'s badly skewed bad-for-consumers-as-usual policies....but up + 5 % is NOT "shooting up", is it ?
5) Tom Costello, CNBC's NASDAQ-wall-guy, again is late/WRONG, way over-sensationalizing, saying, Mon., 9 am, "the NASD stinks...Telecom, networking, Internets, etc., are getting pummelled...." When, in fact, in proper perspected, they had already BEEN 'pummeled', yes ? and, actually, many 'new lows' among big names in those sectors, are pretty-much still holding AT/above/around their recent lows, and are just pulling back after dead-cat bounces only I seem to have predicted herein in the last month, yes ? Then, Bob Pisani added to the B.S.,saying, "the Techs are getting killed today", again, just NOT accurate....Again, it's a case-by-case situation, but I do NOT see 'huge new drops' from their lows of the past kmonth or so....but, normal, usual, expected, predicted ancillary tax-selling here, and nothing more than that....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) on CNBC, Mon. 9:25 am, a rare sharp guy, comenting on how "the dogs of the DJIA" concept, (buying only based on the highest-yielding 10 Dow stocks, and holding for a full year, then selling/adjusting/shifting then, with no stops or targets in then meantime - don't get me started), is misleading, and has NOT (as I weas among the first to mention herein, years ago, BTW) been woirth the effort in recent years.....another reason is because 'high-yield' among old-line stocks, has meant getting 'just' 1-2-3- % dividends, dig ? this is a much longer treatise for another time, but suffice it to say, everything is relative, I.G. rotataion and buying low regardless of whether a stock is a big-name, in thn index, or not, is the best way to trade, period....this one concept is just another in a long line of mediocre overly-simplistic under-performing ones....at least the guy interviewed on CNBC about it, did not fluff it....so kudos to him....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) a supposed 'market history expert' on CNBC, whose L.T. actual T.R. we were Not told of, Thu. 10:28, said, "I think we've seen some big declines in some stocks recently...." uh, brilliant....geez...not.... 2) Thu., Goldman, Sachs finally made the Commercial Banks their top liked I.G. - now - only up here - only after nice rises....we shall see, but the pattern continues....

3) in another heinous misleading dis-service to 1 mm readers, those two nummies from the L.A.T. who have been giving mostly-useless and illegal opinions for years now, undeservedly getting tons of overrated press, while guys like me wallow and get treated terribly, published (only) 'some' of their 2000 predictions on 11/26 - Shame on them for failing to include ALL their predictions - an SEC offense, BTW, but, of course, if I call that to their, and the SEC's, attention, I will, as usual, become the bad guy undeservedly, and get hurt further, yes ? what a terrible system we have, in that respect....but I digress....As you know, I have chronicled plenty of incorrect opinions from them herein, which were NOT in their 'tear-end review'....geez....and they never give targets or stops, either....well, I'll stop here.... 4) and, in the continuing "PSYCLE sm" saga, many B-firms just lowered their opinions on NETA - check it out....amazing, huh....as usual, only after huge drop....after loving it from its high, as usual....the pattern rarely changes.... 5) and toungue-in-cheeck kudos to all the big overpaid B-firmsa who, as usual, finally lowered their opinions on FFIV, Friday - right at its lows after huge drop....great service from firms, ay ?

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) Pres. Clinton, Thu. 9:45, saying our supposed Govt. "surplus" (don't get me started) would be much larger than even his convoluted bloated estimates had expected "America (the country, I assume he meant, don't get me started) will be out of debt by the year 2010" - yikes, actually said, "once we completely pay off uour debt, we will save enough on lower interest payments yearly to free up money, so that, for the first time since Andrew Jackson, our children will be no longer burdened by the mistakes of the past"....oy....wow....this is maybe one of the most INcorrect, misleading, dangerous statements i have ever heard by a president.... 2) a sharp buddy of mine said, "anyone saying there is no Inflation, has not been to the super market...." I agree, and would add FDX/UPS/ABF and postage rates, paper, sneakers, detergents, cereals, housing costs, etc., and you see why my first-to-predict recession is in full force in many areas of our economy....plus, likely 'price rise attempts' coming by businesses being squeezed by energy/elec. costs ?

3) an interesting article, L.A.T. 12/24, "Why boomers' inheritences won't be a boom", points out (the first time I have read this - a real shocker) that even though baby boomers will, in sheer dollars, inheret a TON of bucks soon from dying parents (sorry, a bit mauldlin, but a pertinent, non-emotional fact) the next 10-20 years, because, a) they have more children as parents themselves, making inhereitences spread out among more people, b) much of the inheritences will be in the form of annuities, pensions, and/or IRA's, and therefore lower in then-numbers adjusted-for-higher-inflation-down-the-road dollars, c) only 1.6 % of ALL inheritences in 1998 were over $ 100,000 , and only 4 % received over $ 25,000 from dying parents....amazing, shocking, huh....and, d) the authors of this study say, too few parents have a lot of L.I., and, their bottom line: aside from a VERY small % of boomers getting huge inheritences, the huge numbers being bandied about by the Finl. Ind., will NOT, in their opinions, become an automatic guaranteed financial boom for people currently aged 35-50....what do YOU think of this ? MY question, which they did NOT address, was, do those amounts include homes/values/equities ? or just stocks, bonds, furnishings, etc. As usual, no clarity....

4) as I taught you about "Insider buys" not automatically meaning anything, note huge L.T. drop in "ESC", as tons of insiders bought, constantly, all the way down, dig ?

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....