1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Once again, we see the initial 'sucker-them-in' pops among Extended techs, NASDAQ, stocks, then fading....Many of these 'fakeout breakouts' are mostly ignorant. latecomer, follower people and pros, who haven't the vaguest idea what bottoms look like, or what I.G. rotation means, and are too lazy to research for still-depressed stocks to accumulate....Of course, those are just about the only people who have gotten amazingly fortunately wealthy in recent years....go figure....But this 'only up early' action, still smacks of S.T. topping in them....

UN-blnnking believeable....the Financial Media, Analysts, and Economists, are often SO irresponsible....all of a sudden, just this Monday morning, now they are all saying, "people are selling some winners now because they did not want to sell in the last taxable year"....well, duh....I told you that here, weeks ago....THEY did not, but should have....and, more and more comments now, are predicting the T-bond rates up to 7 1/2 %, not just 7 %....these are the same people who never gave an inkling, at 4+ %, that rates would rise anyway....and, remember, they were all saying, just last week, that "tons of money is waiting for Y2K to come-and-go, and is going to propell extended stocks upward even higher forever", right ? uh-huh....

Could this be a big thing ? fact: in 7 of the last 10 'years of decades ending in 0', the market topped within the first few days of January, into super-bullishness/complacency, which is what I was proposing soon, at least for the Extended stocks....Meanwhile, viewing some broader market oscillators, which are still looking bullish, means the 'depresseds' will likely continue to play 'catch up'....let me reiterate, what I was first to point out herein a few months ago, that I saw the most Insider Buying among Depressed stocks, that I had seen in a long time, in Aug./Sep./Oct. 1999....So, while the extendeds correct, the depresseds should still base and pop, with close stops below anyway....

I'm telling you, I still think "Japan's problems" have NOT been 'fixed' enuf to warrant today's ridiculous prices on Tech. stocks, period....and, I still think 'interest rates' may pop a little more in Jan./Feb., towards the 6 3/4 to 7 % area, that I was the first/only to have predicted herein, from Summer 1998, together providing the nexus (only likely to be recognized after the fact, as usual, by the 'experts'), for corrections in many Extended stocks....See how far so many of them are, way, way above their still-rising 200 DMA's ? Gotta correct towards their 200 DMA's....maybe not all the way back doen to those prices, but lower....and you still do not have a single put ?

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7).... and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:1) this pullback in Gold stocks had better stop soon or else.... 2) finding still more depressed REIT's to buy....check out their potential dividends....and, Apparel stocks.... 3) but, most Foods stocks do not look as good any more, and more Retail stocks must still 'follow-through' to the upside soon, or else.... 4) and, note how some Aero./Def. stocks are bouncing already.... 5) am now adding some depressed Insurance (Life, and P/C) to potential buy list in section (6) below....it is interesting, what with 'the 95 %' all calling for a "guaranteed rise in interest rates to about 7 or 7 1/2 % ahead", that I find more depressed 'interest-sensitive' I.G.'s/issues potentially buyable, yes ? Insur., REIT's, etc.... 6) the DJ. Trans. Avg. still looks 'head-and-shoulders' bottomy....remember, 'if', as 'the 95 %' infer, that these companies do worse when Energy prices rise, as they have been doing a lot for a year, then, when/if Oil prices correct, shouldn't some Trannies bounce ? But, again, we don't "link" ....re-read my "Scenarios" booklet.... 7) note potential fakeout-brakeout top, in the Oil Service stocks I, again, have been the first/only to have given out herein for you....keep close stops above recent highs on them.... 8) obviously, removed most Utilities from Buy list....no biggie....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) believe it or not, L.A. TImes, 12/27, said, of the 374. IPO's in 1998, over half are now selling Below their offering price....think about that.... But, only 23 % of 1999's IPO's are below their offering price, and the 77 % which are rising, are up an avg. of + 170 % above their offering prices, currently....of course, half of those are likely to retrench, ahead, just as those issued in 1998 did, not too far off, thereafter, right ? ....2) an excellent article and chart, L.A. Times front-page, 12/30, titled, "Japan's Split Market", showed, just as with our U.S. depresseds, the 'main Japan stock Index', the Nikkei. 225, remains 50 % Below (that's right, I said, below) its peak from 10 years ago (and is currently trying to complete a "PSYCLE sm" saucer base....dig ?), stocks like "SNE" are parabolic, just like our market....of course, they then ruin it, as usual, by being super-bullish now, on "SNE" up here, citing, "strong earnings are recharging once-weak Sony"....the pattern never changes.... 3) perhaps Tom Petruno and the L.A. Times biiz. sec. crowd are letting some of my missives into their brains, as among their 1/2/00 issue's predictions, they cite "economic growth to slow considerably", "tech. stock craze due to cool", and, "continued rising interest rates"....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) last time, I specifically mentioned stock "CMRC" as an accident waiting to happen, and, of course, that very day, it topped at $ 340, and fell to $ 205, the next day....watch for more of these drops ahead.... 2) following-up with "things not predicted by any experts, in 1989, for the 1990's", from last time here, consider these things being said now, for the future: a) a New Economic Paradigm exists, replacing many old industry groups....O.K., but, did you know that, $$$ sales-wise, the computer, software, and telecom industries, TOGETHER, still only account for less than 10. % of our GNP ? b) the nation faces a looming crisis as baby boomers retire....O.K., but if the New Economy is doing so well, how come it cannot afford to pay for Social Security past our already-extended retirement age people not too far off ? c) the high-tech/internet/biotech sectors are 'immune' from such old-fashioned contraints as supply and demand....O.K., but as I predicted recently, just wait till the fallout after the Xmas season.... d) 'interest rates' and 'dividends' don't mean as much to anything anyone....O.K., but then how come 2/3 of all stocks are down since rates were 2 % lower ? e) according to Sen. Dick Armey, "raising and lowering taxes doesn't matter that much any more in an economy that is so dynamic" ....O.K., but how come many businesses pay little or no taxes, and individuals still do everything they can to avoid paying them ? ....Can you think of any more items being said now ? ....3) a recent study by Brown University, found that the worst performing Investment Clubs tend to be same-sex clubs based on friendships, and the best performing Clubs, were coed clubs with no familial ties....not sure what that means, but is interesting....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) on CNBC, Monday, I heard a B-firm finally recommending "IDC", a stock i gave you herein last year in its base, and is now paraboic....they said, its 'super-bullish now" because of a new agreement with "MOT"....the pattern never changes....they all did not even know IDC existed, several hundred percent ago, dig ?

e) more general items proving why one should ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) as to Y2K, I read a salient comment, from an engineer who said, that, every minute of every day, there are thousands of varying degrees of "glitches" worldwide, which never get reported, etc., so why worry now....and, 'if' Y2K was going to be that bad, especially in other countries supposedly not as prepared as our USA, then how come most all their stock indexes are at all time highs today ? Everything is going to fall apart....but all their stocks are going to rise even more, forever....yeah, right....

e) as expected, of course, L.A. Times, 1/2 front-page, "U.S., firms, overreacted to Y2K fix, critics say" ...."raises a real concern that everyone overreacted to the problem...." The chief info. officer at the pentagon, said, "I think we've been had....the U.S. has been ransomed....we spent $ 150. to $ 200. Billion, yet countries like China and Russia, which spent much less on Y2K, seemed to clear the big hurdle with equal success...." I say, sure, as I predicted, but still wait till end of January, before making final judgement....I told you, herein, that, worldwide, this was going to be, at worst, a 10-15 % problem.... 'nuff said....

As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....