1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
This is coming out on a Thursday, in hopes of cleaning up so many recent winners, in section (3), and imparting tons of valuable lessons below in section (1) and (2), etc. There ahave been so many valuable pattern lessons in my recent NL's, and this one, one can easily (have) glean(ed) so much value about my concepts, and 'the way things transpire, and have almost always transpired, it is a priviledge to share it, even though I have been so unrewarded by this nation and the business....read on....

*** Have we been hot, or what....told you so, that the NASDAQ would not fall to 2,100, , and you must have bt. something As I said, just ancillary 'minor new lows' on many Techs, but others holding and/or bouncing as expected....Evidently about 13 % of the 'NASDAQ -100' stocks were at new lows, Tues., so, as I said recently, we were at tradeable bottoms, which abounded....even if those prices renew declines later (which I say, is unlikely, BTW), the coming pops will surprise scaredy-cats and bears, which of course, Wed., came true....

and, I am even prouder of having also pretty-much been among the very few/first to have suggested a few weeks ago herein for you, we also have seen the recently-strong I.G.,'s correcting down (extended Drugs, Foods, Financials, etc.), while previously weakest ones are bouncing (Techs, Retail, Chem., Leisure, etc.), some hugely, as expected here (you heard it here first, yes ?), in normal not-unusual-at-all, normal, usual, ROTATION, dig ? this has been kinda easy lately, especially with our expected aditional boost from tax-selling, well, you already knew what to have done, yes ? I think NASDAQ had its biggest volume day ever on Wed. ? 3 billion shares ? so this has some conviction, after normal pullbacks....good for us....and/but with TONS of stocks up 10-20-30 % VERY quickly, exactly as expected, be sure to take QLG's when/if those issues approcah initial/previous resistance, yes ? no greed, no 'scenarios' based on any BS "Fed" stuff, right ? and, as always, NO emotion, no 'scenarios', no too-high expectations, right ?

And, on Wed., we had tone of the biggest gains on NASDSAQ ever, see ? hope you got in....note, not only giving you longside popers, also giving you Puttables which are falling, simultaneously....again proving the independent-of-each-other nature of most ind. groups....a nicely 'split' market again, finally....with scared money just starting to go into 'defensive' areas, only after big rises, as usual, and out of depr. Techs near lows, as usual....are you learning the patterns ?

Once again, recall my expectation of many 'fobd's', revalidating, like, ANAD, WCOM, VOD, which you stayed in, etc., as almost ALWAYS occurs around the new year period, yes ? as always, we expect to be whipsawed in a few, like, GENE, but not as important, since, we re-allocate that money into others, most of which rise a bunch anyway, right ? also, watch as our depressed rise, with LOWER earnings, while the toppy ones correct , with HIGHER earnings....at least S.T. , NO "links' !

whew, I finally heard crap about 'the Jan. effect', and, "the Jan. barometer", etc., on CNBC, Tues., which I have been teaching people to take advantage of for decades....gee, NO one mentioned it in Nov. or December....anyway, recall as I taught you in 1999, the NASDAQ had the largest rise an index has ever had +86 %, and, as expected, in Y2K, it had the largest decline ever, -50 %, proving once again, the value of my "PSYCLE sm" I.G.R., re-read that booklet....CNBC's Tom Costello, 12:25, said, "last year's best performing stocks are getting hit today...." The pattern rarely changes....and only now, those who loved the NASDAQ biggies at 5,000 are now expecting 2,100 ahead....useless people, except, as you have been taught, as contrary indicators at turns....and likely wrong, dig ?

More confirmation of longsiders bottoming soon for us: L.A.T., 12/31, headline, "Market woes migh continue into January", from the AP, wrote, "profit warnings on Wall St. are piling up at a record pace....an unusual number of anguished cries....tech. and non-tech. alike....an onslaught of neg. announcements ....hurt the economy....analysts say the distress calls may even accelerate.... First Call recorded more than 430 downward earnings revisions, twice last years' number....the barrage of bad news....a selling frenzy....analysts are even more alarmed by the trouble signs showing up in just about every other industry as well...." Wow, neat....Uh, gee, guys, thanks for the tradeable-bottom-soon sign, "PSYCLE sm -wise", ay ? This is about as good as it gets, for a contrary indicator, yes ?

I should also remind you, that, in the presidential cycle I tauight you about years ago, post-election years have histoirically tended to be the worst of the 4....and financial prospects for the next decade seem worse than in the last 2 decades, yes ? of course, that will not prevent me from sharing excellent 2/3-right-with-stops longside winners over time, herein, regardless....yes ? as you have observed, I often do even better when non-parabolic moves are in vogue....

I read interesting item in recent O.C. Register (kudos for printing it, guys), about how, early last year, ROK, which had spun-off CNXT, saw that tons of its employees had, in ROK's opinion, too much of their retirement and 401-K money in CNXT stock (normal, as you have been taught to know), and tried to initiate a policy preventing employees from doing just that, as a way to protect them, a nice idea by ROK....anyway, outrage ensued, and ROK relented....and, of course, you know the rest - CNXT stock got crushed from then (as it seems only I predicted ?), and now, well, you know....who gets blamed ? God forbid any of those people take any responsibility, or ever learn anything, themselves, ay ? my "PSYCLE sm' works again....to no reward to me, though I certainly deserve(d) that....the guy at my Yoga Center whom I begged to lighten up in CNXT, laughed at me at the top, and, of course, won't even look at me now....so what else is new....

oh, of interest, the pres. of Diedrich's Coffee Cp., DDRX, has been attending my Yoga Center for the first time in years - get it ? obviously under stress, yes ? recall, I mentioned to him the last time his stock was a super-depressed buy , and he did not get the 'PSYCLE sm"....I am not recommending it here, but, I know he did not sell any at higher levels, not at $ 7. not too long ago, now 25 cents a share....For the umpteenth time: most all execs know NO more about future stock price moves of their stocks, than anyone else....again I rest my case....but here, DDRX may be an EVB, judging solely by his attendence at my Yoga Center, from a sentiment o.o.v., dig ? caveat emptor.

that said, Bob Pisani (see below), trying to infer a poorer economy ahead, showed the end of 1974 as a supposed parallel to what he infers may happen to many stocks from today (gee, he should have said this months ago, before huge stock price drops, ay ? but I digress....and/but he also did NOT say/mention, that, as the 'economy' weakened, many 'stocks' (two diff. things, remember) ROSE big-time, from late 1974, just as many economic indicators fell, dig ?

CNBC, Tue. just before the close, Joe Kernan said, "I am finally beginning to get phone calls from really demoralized people", so semi-kudos for that from him, as potential 'tradeable bottom soon' sentiment indicator, dig ? also, note, obviously, in Tuesday's NL here, any time I wrote, "Monday on CNBC", etc., I meant, Tuesday....

Another in a long line of reasons why NOT to listen-to-and-blindly-follow Wall St. and CNBC crap: all, on CNBC, Wed., said, Greenspan knocked everyone's opinions for a loop, lowering rates 1/2 pt. instead of less...." To which, of course, I would say, "then exactly what are all those analysts getting paid for ?" BTW, it is interesting, as i have taught you for decades, how, at their highs, all the big-names are 'quality' stocks, yes ? But, at their lows, they are 'risky'....

CNBC, Thu. 8:30, Kathleen Cansy, initially-nicely showed L.T. mkt. bottoms in late 1990, and late 1974, which, as you know, I kinda suggested the recent lows may, on hindsight, end up looking like....but then ruined it, as ALL reporters do, by also showing the bottoms in late 1994 and 1995, saying, "since we are unsure if the recent lows are in, it could be many months before we know what we have".... by which time, of course, it will have been too late for 'the 95 %', as usual, ay ? But semi-kudos to her for at least the suggestions - even a bit late/higher, up off the lows, as it were....

Last, as if I had to remind you of the truly obvious (which I heared/read almost no one else mention late Dec.), Pension plans had TONS of $ (and still do) they MUST invest, yes ? For the umpteenth time, one MUST have bought SOME things near recent lows, with close stops, as in late ANY year after big drops, when 'the 95 %' are scared....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) recall my recent 'longside covered option writing' concept, with our depresseds, with close stops, because 3-6-month calls premiums remain ridiculous ? many Techs. in sec. (3) and (6) carry 30 % to 50 % pot. annual returns when/if assume remain unchanged, for just 5-6-7-months, double that when/if on margin, yes ? Hey, dismiss them if you choose.... 2) reading in year-end newspapers, that FNF and FED were among the biggest % gainers in O.C., Calif. in Y2K, recall who was the first/only to give them out herein from lows ? Yup....also recall, as I wrote herein at that time, I had a now-ex-buddy at FAF who was laid-off, and said the co. was toast....another "PSYCLE sm" predictive help, to learn from, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....also recall article on AHG, as all the 'experts/media' also, as usual, hated all the Hospital stocks at lows, which I gave as buys from those lows ehrein for you....I could go on, but you know my great track record with ideas like these....'nuff said....

3) Wed., note strength in RBOC's and L.D. Telecom stocks, which, as usual, I was first/only to give out herein near lows, longside....but, still, QSL's in NT and VOD, no damage.... 4) and renewed rise in 30-yr. T-bond to 106-10 Tue./Wed., right around my orig. upside target I gave you herein (from 98 double-bottom I called for ya back then), of 'around the 106+ area', to warrant lightening up, dig ? and, of course, the Bonds fell 2 pts. real fast on Wed., see ? ....5) keep your eye on the depr. Semis I have been the first/only to give out herein near lows....some are forming EVB's and bases, as expected....remember, "the 95 % who always hate them at lows, and love them at highs", will not even care about these until they are higher, right ? ....6) well, looks like I will also be the first/only to have given out some extended Utils. herein for you as Puts from highs, as 'the 95 %' begin to run into them, as usual, ay ? note, the DJ. Util. Avg. from 403, I still was first/only to have given you herein as a Put, had a 'fobo' and is now down to 346 anyway, hah....so what else is new....and, some Health-Drugs, and Insur./Banks, as well ?

7) also note expected new drops in CPN, DYN, DUK, etc., which only I was first to give herein, which all the 'experts' said were 'no risk, because they would sell power to Utils. forever, etc.", yadda, yadda, note drops to 200 DMA's, as usual ....think about all the bucks suckered into stocks like those near recent highs ....where were those institutions near their previous lows ? oh, yeah, probably buying other stocks at their highs.... 8) and, Thu., Pisani said, "many Food-related stocks are getting crushed...." Thanks, Bob, as i was certainly the first/only to give their tops out recently, as usual....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) more crap from L.A.T. Petruno, et al, 12/31, "are we ready for pain of another wave of change ?", as usual, comes way too late foto help most peopole, yes ? again, he should have respected me and listened to me when I was among the first few to suggest 'the end of an era', on TV, near the Tech. top....what a shame....a broken record from me, ay ? anyway, he actually wrote, "now we appear to be in the midst of one...." Oh, so only NOW he says that....thanks for nothing, as usual.... 2) same front-page, J. Peterson wrote, "the 'New Economy' has not put an end to the Business Cycle", also as I was among the first few to warn about, in 1999....well, duh....proving for the umpteenth time, the validity of my "PSYCLE sm", that human nature patterns NEVER change ....the names change, but the sequence is almost ALWAYS the same....'nuff said....oh, and also proves that even the 'smartest, wealthiest, etc.' rarely learn, as each cycle occurs the same way....'next'....oh, and the O.C. Register's Jonathan lansner 12/30 year-end headline also appeared way too late to help: "2000 was a bear of a year" -- gee, guy, don't tell us something BEFORE it happens, thanks for nothing....

2) O.C. Register 12/30 headline, "Boom year for Boeing ?", which again as I taught you, only comes AFTER its stocks had already risen from 30+ to 70-, amazingly as usual, right ? another confirmation of my adding BA puttable near recent high for you herein....see item below on BA, as well, get it ? ....3) L.A.T. 12/31, front-page likely contrary headline " 'creative destruction of jobs' time again ?" mentions how, 'all but forgotten are all the glowing predictions made early in 2000 that several stocks would become $ trillion market caps", and of, "the brutal restructurings in huge companies at the beginning of last decade" (the inference being, that many stocks (two diff. things, right ?) rose a lot thereafter, while many 'people' failed to profit from the 1990's)....more proof that fundamentals and technicals cannot be 'linked' the way 'the 95 %' continue to assume - even with massive evidence to the contrary....weird, huh....nope, just normal....they also showed a table of huge drops in loved-at-the-top (uh, also by the newpaper guys as well, right ? don't get me started) big-name stocks, titled, "the market thinks again"....meaning, although THEY were wrong big-time, and I was right, as usual, THING CHANGE within markets....more judos for learning I.G. rotation....

3) another lame, late, headline, L.A.T., 12/31, from the WSJ no less, "sizzling mutual funds now fizzle on dot-com declines", exactly as I was first to predict herein at parabolic highs, the Funds over-puffed by iditots in the Media, in Internet stocks , got whacked....David Alger, whose Spectra Fund fell -31 % in 2000, said, "it was probably our time to pay the piper...." Gee guy, seems your investors paid for your mistakes, yes ? But I would not have chosen to pick on him, I would have lambasted the Munder guys, who never used stops or targets or diversified well....and, I ask again, where had JIm "perma-bull ion Internet stocks" DInes, been ?

4) signs of the end of civilization: CNNC's Bob PIsani, shamelessly pitched his first book, supposedly about how economic items can supposedly be used as D.A.F.P.P. factors....I know what you are saying, "oh my God, no....." My beef is that he is allowed to do so, at all....re-read my Media booklet....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) for the umpteenth time, we have proof, that "the Fed lowering I.R.'s does NOT automatically, magically, easily lead to rises in Financial stocks, as you have been taught by me alone, over the years, yes ? 'nuff said.... 2) Pisani, Tue. 11 am, seeing our "BA" down as only I expected, said, "hard to believe it (BA) will ever drop, given how stupendous its fundamentals are here...." honest....then, to compound their misreporting, Wed. a.m., CNBC reported, "BA down a bit today,. after rocketing up yesterday".... which is just plain a LIE....as BA, FELL -7, towards 60 (recall, I am still the first/only to have given it out as Put from $ 70.-....unbelieveable that CNBC reporter would get away with such a comment.... 3) O.C. Register, 12/30, headline, "Losses: drop of heady profits in Techs may affect employees' morale, work habits", still more predicted proof of the PSY-chological patterns I teach....

4) the pres. of Oakley "OO", a stock I was the first/only to give out herein from its $ 5+ lows, recently hit 20, then 13 recent pullback, said they had bought a bunch of stock under $ 10. earlier, and they just announced they will buy a bunch more around here....not cheap any more, I say, but I wish them well.... 5) evidently, while we never 'link' such things to stocks moves, as you know, Tue., 12 noon, CNBC reported that "the Natl. Purchasing Mgrs. Index", fell to its lowest level since 1994-1995 economy lows, "consistent with a recession"...."much lower than any economists expected"....proving once again, a) 'bworse/bad news' NEVER comes out from top, only late, after hurt, and, b) economists still stink, generally, in D.A.F.P.P. output, period....

6) in another amazing display of uselessness and misleadingness, CNBC, through Pisani and Griffeth (don't get me started), tried to supposedly 'educate viewers' to PE ratios, etc., Tue. 12:15, and made, as expected, a mess, saying pretty-much nothing of D.A.F.P.P.V., just 'when PE's are higher, people's expectations are higher, and vice-versa"....uh, OK, but how does one trade well on PE's ? got no help at all...as usual.... 7) I love it, more proof of "PSYCLE sm" supremecy, as ODP, Wed., announced layoffs, lower financial expectations, closing stores - and its stock, which I was, as usual, the first/only to give out herein at recent base lows (with insider buying back then as well), rose further, to $ 8., are you learning ? and, of course, I also was first/only to have given you SPLS from 11, so far, I.G.R., yes ?....8) and I also love that yet anohter supposedly 'bulletproof co. stock, with the best mgmt. in the world', GE, got whacked further Tuesday, hah....NO exceptions....not MSFT, not INTC, not WMT, not NT, etc., etc., etc., ad nauseum, ay ? 'the 95 %', nor overpaid analysts, will NEVER learn, will they ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) an idiot on CNBC, Tue. 11:46, managing the Northern Small Cap. Fund, actually said, "I think the potential exists for some earnings disappointments"....gee, thanks, guy, for NOTHING....it already exists, dummy ! where have you been ? normal, ay ? he now dislikes SUNW at 25, only now....but probably liked it near its high, ay ? ....2) in recent Bottom LIne issues 12/00 and 1/01, their 'expert analysts' now like, EOG, BEAS, AET, BK, AIG, PFE, anear their highs only, all on my pot. Puts list, as you might have figured, and JNJ and MDT, which may have already broken out not an even remotely sheap stock on their lists, as usual, right ? ....3) John 'overrated and puzzlingly puffed continauly by CNBC" Bollinger, Tue. 12:30, said, "things with I.R.'s may become SO positive, the market may have no choice but rise....but NOT the Techs. stocks...." Geez, is he' gonna be wrong on the Techs again ? anyway, he missed calling the I.R. decline in the T-bill yield, anyway, from 5.90 % to 5.15 % here....and, only NOW, is on TV, bullish on Bonds, dig ? late, as usual....so, again, I ask: why have hikm on so often, when they could have guys like me ?

4) recent Jan.'01 issue, Bottom Line Tomorrow, has Sheldon Jacobs of the No-Load Fund Investor, holding 30-35 % cash here, not very bullish for a litany of fundamental reasons (if so, then how come he is 65 to 70 % invested ? but I digress), saying, "an S & P , PE ratio of over 20 traditionally is a signal for a bear market", to which I reply, a) S & P's PE ratio rose ABOVE 20, to over 30, in 1999 and 2000, and we had NO 'bear market' in major stocks, right ? and, b) YOU did not recommend a bear market when the PE topped out, and currently remains in the 20 to 25 area....last, BLT mag. only printed this 'supposedly bearish' item in its mag., in late Dec. 1999, too late to help their readers, because tons of Techs had already fallen a bunch beforehand, dig ? the pattern rarely changes....

5) early Wed., CNBC had pres. of Seligman T & I. Fund on, 8 am, who, after 10 good years (kudos to him), lost - 40 % just in 1999....but they now want his opinion, to which I say, if he lost so much, showing he never uses stops nor tech. anal., why listen to him now, dig ? ....6) more sarcastic 'thanks for nothing, you overpaid jerks who lose tons of people tons of money with no repurcussions, and no stops, etc.' pan, for the latest stock to be downgraded by several big B-firms, only after huge drop: CACS, Wed., yet another stock I gave you herein as a puttable near its $ 70. high (now around $ 6+, yikes)....ditto, with INKT, finally downgraded by tons of B-firms (after loving it much higher, as usual), Thu. - the pattern rarely changes....

7) the latest misleading rip-off analysis website, WallStreetCity, has been doing nothing but giving out LAST period's strongest and weakest I.G.'s, as if they predicted their moves beforehand, but have NEVER done so, in reality, in the dozens of unsolicited e-mails they have been sending to tons pof people, soliciting their mostly useless service....jeers to them.... 8) and, in the latest WS Transcript, analyst C. Bertelsen, now says "MO is a classic low-risk value play" up here.....gee, guy, you hated it at its lows when I was among the first/only to give all the Tobacco's as buys herein, yes ? What is your L.T. actual, in-writing T.R. ? and, why is the WST giving you space/publicity, when they could have me ? recall, they promised me coverage, I did tons of work, then they screwed me, when I had nmy excellent NL, yes ? next....once again we see that analysts ONLY like a 'value stock' after it has laready risen a ton....the pattern rarely changes....

8) heard amazingly telling and ignorant and dangerous comments made in recent Finl. Media, whereby analysts who loved "IT" stocks at their parabolic hgihs without any stops, protection or selling, predicting 'increasing increases forever' in their businesses, saying, "I guess there is a downside to the IT business after all"....did you also hear this ? un ****-ing believeable ! and those guys get paid for such incorrect crap ? dont' get me started....ditto, as Thu., WMT announced its lowest--growth quater since 1994, to which, as the first guy to correctly have predicted the end of its sales increases trend, a few years ago, I say, HAH....there are almost NO exceptions to my "PSYCLE sm" !

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) did you know that 15 to 20 % of the weight of ALL land animals comes from ants ? according to "Science News" mag., vol. 158....kinda gives one perspective....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....