Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
issue # 61, dated: 10:30 am, P.S.T., Monday, Jan. 04, 1999

**** Again, hope you had a happy, prosperous, healthy, holiday season, and best wishes to you for next year.... Newest Market Comments: getting more and more nice bounces among our Depresseds, having seen continuing final tax-selling among other depresseds, and, I assume, some profit-taking coming early in 1999, among our extended stocks....With slight "sucker breaks" in both directions, normal for this time of year, causing new, potential, fakeout, lows/highs, and I suggested that one step back, and VIEW the charts, expecting more tax-selling bounces among our depresseds, while still buying Puts on our extendeds....Are you at least already in, each, a depressed Oil Service, Y2K, Health, Prec./Metal, Tech., Farm, etc., stock long (as a "portfolio" of sorts) sec. (6) ? And, perhaps, at least a couple of Puts, sec. (7) ? The current bounces look to continue for our depresseds, but (only) many "extended" stocks look ready for a correction, which would be unexpected, and hence, more likely, sentiment-wise....

Remember, often, these bounces occur "in a vacuum", as real quick, initial pops....As I teach, the mistakes are letting any recent past losses prevent one (mentally) from taking advantage in such stocks, again recently/now, and/or one's failure to learn that this time of year, the lowest-priced stocks are often the best, highest reward-to-risk ratio ideas, and NOT, the "already way up ones".... Also, for the umpteenth time, a stock can bounce, up and down, and become buys or puts multiple times, over days or weeks....as long as its pattern remains intact.. ..Hence the helpful "repeats" in section (3) each time....

New: I just sent in my "early 1999 prediction form" to Mansfield, Jersey City, N.J. (201) 795 - 0629....if you call them, be absolutely certain, to tell them I referred you specifically ! Their charts, which I do order/get maybe 3 times a year, will give you 2-1/2 year charts, with OBV, and their 200 DMA, and is worth the $ 48. for three of their chartbooks, once, anyway....If you do order it (I get no kickbacks from them), please also let ME know, via e-mail....Some people need to see a plethora of similar-looking stocks charts, in one sitting, in order to finally burn the pattern into their brain, which is fine. Oh, and they offer 9 different chart books....

But do notice the plethora of added potential Longs and Puts, in sec. (6) and (7) below....still a "super split" market. I am just sharing what I see, so YOU get a better overall picture of what is really going on.

Important: in addition to our depresseds and EVB's, I am also seeing some "secondary pullback lows" occuring, after initial bounces in many of our depressed stocks....this means the "tax-selling bounces" may already be starting for those issues, already....this is also S.T. stage 2 behavior, technically....see Section (4) below....and, now, seeing some early stage 3 bounces in those types of stocks/patterns ?

While we are definitely catching many depressed bouncers for you herein, I am still seeing too many breaks of budding patterns, especially among some Puts.... But I still see quite satisfactory patterns among our favored I.G.'s, sec. (6) and (7), and AM suggesting action, vs. inaction, for our normal above-avg. performance from here....being among the few honest guys in this business, means, I gotta cut losses when patterns break....last, remember, some stocks will "EVB/tax-sell bottom" in Dec., and others will have their bottoms early Jan. so, Step back, view the charts, gain perspective and knowledge and confidence to ACT.

If you are a "NEWER" Subscriber, please take the time to read ALL of the "wordy" parts of the NL, once or twice, anyway... If you are an "OLDER" Subscriber, of course, feel free to SKIP, to those NL sections you wish to glean your info. from. (Save all my CUMULATIVE letters, for future reference/educational learning/help)

Notice, how, except for the fact that so many of our long-side stocks are rising, sec. 4), I have shortened this section, and the NL, even further....please refer back to the last NL to "see" what I have removed....by now, I am assuming you know my/the concept, rules, "abbreviations", terms, etc. You should know the 3 (three) types of stocks herein, and, how to read, and employ, the stocks in sections 3, 6, and 7, to your best benefit....

*** If you are pressed for time, read section (2) to develop a "feel" for our Sentiment patterns--- and Section (3) always, while viewing the CHARTS....So much valuable info. in one place. Also, Obviously, when "more, or fewer" longs, or puts, are given herein, that also tells us more about "the internals, and likely future direction of the market", yes ? And, please, neither expect ME to stay "super hot" nor "super cold" forever.

I assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo...I cannot infer my future performance will always match my excellent , real, past track records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the decision-making/ stock-choosing side of your brain....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
New Commentary: Although you know we NEVER try to "predict Indexes/averages/the market", here are my most Current "Market" Comments:

**** As predicted, I am finding more depressed future-buyables, among our favored Industry Groups, and how many NASDAQ stocks are forming left-sides-of- potential-upside-down-EVT-hook-saucers....The "PSYCLE sm" message, is that I recall similar cross-currents, this time of year, the last 3 Decembers....We did real well after each of those periods, as we are now, as you can see. So, there have got to be more tops coming soon, and, except for the 'depresseds", this is NOT the beginning of further huge rises, in such already-extended stocks ! The most unexpected thing to occur soon, would be a correction among extendeds....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL.... Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3). And note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and (5).

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) Notes: 1) Hope you at least caught our Oil Service, Y2K, Health, Farm Eq., Metals, Employ., Mtg./Fin., cheapies, stocks pops occuring recently....we seem to have been, again, among the first/only to predict those type of issues, here for you.... 2) viewing yearly charts of other (foreign) country's stock indexes, shows, obviously, many "rises after breakdowns", but, now, so many Foreign stock indexes are now up against resistance near their 1998 highs, I advise significant caution to jumping on/into them here and now, "just because of the Euro" (don't get me started). My "PSYCLE sm" is NOT bullish on ANY foreign country in general, here....Remember , I gave you many Asians/Mexican stocks, herein, ealier, long, and got out weeks ago.. ..Yes, I know some similarly positioned stocks in the U.S. ended up braking above their previous "potential-double-tops" highs, but you are much better off buying the depresseds here, for tax-selling bounces, at this stage.... 3) you know I don't favor many "market indicators", but the "odd -lot short ratio" (a contrary indicator at times, historically), IS now at its lowest level in months....as this measures under-100-share orders in big-name-extended stocks, this is a little bearish, for our Extended stocks, showing very, very few "little investors" are shorting the extended stocks here....good for us, soon, hopefully....4) last, note the depressed "saucers" also forming in Crude, and Heating Oil futures, to go with the charts of our Oil Service stocks, as you can see....

b) 1) follow-up to Mossimo (MGX), note, it popped to 16, then very quickly pulled back to 9+, as expected, stage 2, 'nuff said....2) also, following-up Pacifc Sunwear (PSUN), see how it bounced off the lows, as expected, from the day the local paper was so negative on it, stage 7, dig ? ....3) O.C. Register, 12/26, had a big expose on Wade C-ook (don't get me started), and while I always value other great teachers of things of actual value investing, beyond his amazing promises, including "doubling your money every 2-3-4 months forever" (the article's words, not mine, and they also showed that (quote) "Wade Cook Finl. posted a Loss of $ 800,000 on stocks traded in its own company portfolios in 1997"), and his growing tangles with regulators (ditto), and that their stock, "WADE" is also down, a Lot....What caught my eye, was that his "workshop" costs $ 5,695., and his online service goes for $ 2,995. a year !!! Wow, I am charging way too little....

c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/ companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) Biz. Wk. mag, 12/21 issue, article titled, "A less than random walk": pointed out college studies showing that, since 1980 only, the highest % gainers stocks over the most recent past 6 months period, have tended to also outperform the laggards, over the following 6 months as well....in other words, that "momentum begets momentum".....of course, a) this is an historical anomaly, and, b) those that eventually topped and fell, big, did so FROM a point at which they were still very strong, i.e., they gave no way to find tops....the highest-RS stocks still fell a lot after topping....Also, more interesting from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., they found that "the most covered stocks by the financial Media" tended to UNDER-perform, especially among highest-cap/biggest-names, the opposite of what "the 95 %" believe....As you know, I eschew "momentum trading" for many reasons, but, in recent years, some people have done well buying new already-extended highs, in "stage 3 hopes" for a parabolic rise....but big winners from there are very rare in reality....2) Newspaper, Jan. 4, piece showed that 1998 had the second worst experience for "disaster losses" for insurance companies, than ever (1995 being the worst by far)....And, that, "in the 1990's, adjusted for inflation, such disasters have cost the insurance industry 15 times the levels of the 1960's".... Yet, many of their stocks have Risen, quite a bit, during this period....dig ? Again, showing the "lack of a D.A.F.P.P. link" between "fundamentals" and "technicals" in any Industry Group, even long-term. 3) L.A. Times, 1/3: showed a chart, that, in 1998, only 36.4 % of all NYSE and NASDAQ stocks were up for last year !!! (obviously, 62.3 % were down for the year !!!). Wow. I still say, for early 1999 anyway, "the last shall be first" (and vice-versa)....4) a biggie money mgr. said "all the crises that can happen, have already happened (Asia, Russia, Y2K, Clinton, Iraq/oil, global deflation), and (since they did not break the market---but they did, mid-year, right ? but I digress) so the market will continue rising" ...5) and last, evidently, the avg. Mutual Fund rose only + 13.7 % in 1998, vs. the + 27 % -or-so rise in the S & P....

d) more late, misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) held my nose and watched Wall St. Week's year-end/ahead show, Fri., and, the mean expectation for 1999 among panelists was a Dow high around 10600 and a low around 8700....so we can be sure one of the two will be broken....given a top forms in our extendeds, we opt for a break below 8600 at some point....but, again, we NEVER try to predict indexes, remember....2) anyway, the "favorite stocks" among the WSW panelists, included a ton of already-extended issues on MY potential Put list: Blue Chips, Health, Computer, Biotech, Commun., Financial.....I'll follow their names out of the corner of my eye to see how they do, but, seriously, do NOT bet with those people at this stage, Long-side, in those types of stocks, without close stops....Interestingly, of the 30 stocks they liked, not ONE stock was even remotely inexpensive, nor even medium-priced....every one was currently near its high....caveat emptor.... 3) the other gal in their panel, actually said what may be 'PSYCLE famous last words': "even at these high prices, on hindsight, the Internets are going to be looked upon as the equivalent of the invention of the light bulb"....let the shorting continue.... 4) not one OIl Service, Farm, or Metals, or depressed stock, was "liked" by WSW's panel....you know what THAT means....good for us, hopefully....

4) read where Marty Zweig pointed out, Time and Newsweek each had "bears" on their covers, in Nov., and, according to him, the last 6 times two national, nonfinancial mags had Bears on their covers, the market rallied immediately, rising avg. of +10 % in the next 6 mos., and +20 %, 12 mos. later....but, since Nov., the major indexes are already up around 15 %.... 5) Todd Market Timer, pointed out, that, in Nov. and Dec., "overseas investors" are now "heavy buyers" of U.S. stocks....but, historically, they have tended to be more late, than early, right ? they are notorious for also buying near tops....we shall see....

As you have seen the last several months, how much better one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks, technically/sentiment-wise, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless info., anyway, and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/ suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2" sale....and, "css" means "covered previous short sale", where no puts options existed....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when originally recommended herein, to the price where very rently Hypothetically "sold"):
1/2 pos. puts BYND (28+ to 20) for VQ 100% Gain....1/2 pos. puts BVSN (37- to 28+) for VVQ 85% Gain....puts CQ (38+ to 34-) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. calls SFSK (18+ to 24+) for VQ 125% G....1/2 pos. calls MLHR (20 to 26+) for Q 111% G....
and puts, ADBE, PNU, EMC, OMC, GVA, ENE, PNY, TI., for VQ, very small losses.... there have been too many puts Q, S, losses in the recent past, but, as I said, this is of small consequence in the bigger picture overall, especially this time of year....and I am still giving out many more, other, large % Gains....note, some Puts QSL's were the very next day....just being honest....Remember, occasional 10-20 % portfolio drawdowns are NORMAL and accepted, L.T., without losing our agressiveness or positive thought or action, in the "next" set of ideas....

NOTE: while all the $ under 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for so short a time period, yes ?

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right near these prices only:
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....


**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, some more/new/revisited stocks here, and most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AG @ 6++, BED @ 16.06, BIR @ 4.06, BMG @ 4, CDE @ 4 1/8, FCH @ 22+, FGI. @ 11-, FLM @ 9 13/16, FTL @ 12++, HPH @ 8++, ILX @ 2.06, ISSI. @ 2 15/16, MAH @ 10++, MATK @ 7+, MCH @ 18+, NETM @ 1 11/16, NPSI. @ 12+, NWAC @ 23+, PAM @ 3 13/16, PMK @ 23+, REV @ 16, RTC @ 4 1/2, SAMC @ 5 1/2, SEW @ 3 5/8, SOL @ 15+, SWW @ 2 5/16, TDW @ 22, TFN @ 4, TOY @ 16+, TWLB @ 13, UMR @ 11/16,

(repeats) (note, some re-added repeats) AAC @ 3 1/2, AMLN @ 0.44, AR @ 15, ATV @ 1 5/16, ATW @ 16+, BAANF @ 10+, BCP @ 5+, BDS @ 2 3/4, BLM @ 2.06, BTC @ 12+, BUNZ @ 9+, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CPU @ 12+, CS @ 8, CTI. @ 6 1/2, CXI. @ 5/16, CYM @ 9 1/8, DBRSY @ 12-, DO @ 22-, ELCO @ 1 1/2, ELY @ 9 7/8, ESV @ 10-, FP @ 2 1/4, 1/2 pos. GCO @ 4 7/8, GLDR @ 1-, GLM @ 8 5/8, GLT @ 11 11/16, GSR @ 1, HBI. @ 5.06, HCM @ 4.06, HMY @ 6.06, IAIC @ 1 1/4, IMPR @ 5.06, IPIC @ 3-, JOB @ 6-, KRY @ 0.44, LFB @ 9++, LXR @ 1.06, MHR @ 2 7/8, MIFGY @ 8+, MS @ 1.06, MSN @ 0.41, MWY @ 10, NBR @ 12+, NBTY @ 6-, NE @ 12, NGX @ 7/16, NOI. @ 10+, NOV @ 2 3/8, NR @ 5 13/16, OO. @ 9-, PAH @ 5 5/8, PAR @ 7+, PCMS @ 2 3/4, PDE @ 6+, PDS @ 10+, PLC @ 3 5/8, PRD @ 18-, RDC @ 9+, SIF @ 12-, SRR @ 8-, SSC @ 11/16, TEN @ 31+, TLZ @ 4 5/16, TOX @ 3/16, TRMB @ 7 1/8, TRP @ 14+, TXB @ 3 3/8, UTI. @ 6++, VC @ 3 13/16, VDC @ 3 9/16, VGZ @ 3/16, VRC @ 7-, VTA @ 5 1/8, VTO @ 4 5/16, VTS @ 12 1/8, WKGP @ 1 13/16, WTT @ 1 9/16....most are still EVB's...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues, and a few whipsaws, back in....and, more importantly, that, now, AFTER recent rises, most "new buys" are real cheapies, and/or "laggards" with less "sexiness", dig ? What does THAT tell you ? also see the "just missed" issues, below....

also, note, some new/repeat long buys, are in stage 2, having pulled back after previous upside breakouts from earlier bases, dig ? still plenty to choose from, to build a portfolio, long-side....

NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should already understand, that, very often, there is NOT "just one day" when my ideas become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/ fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....

*** remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times.... "just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media patterns.

** Important: took, SYNT, SNY, --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....and/or, they need more work, technically....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops: alphabetical by symbol: (note, more new ones) ABT @ 50, AET @ 80+, AFS @ 43, AOL @ 157-, ARMHY @ 63, BOBE @ 26+, BMET @ 41-, BVSN @ 36+, BYND @ 28-, CL @ 93+, FDX @ 90, MAS @ 29, NMGC @ 23-, PLCM @ 22+, TXN @ 88-, UTX @ 111-, VRTY @ 28, WABC @ 37-, XIRC @ 34+,

(and more repeats) AMAT @ 46, CBL @ 26-, CMA @ 68+, CMVT @ 71-, DLX @ 37-, ENE @ 58+, FAM @ 44+, FLT @ 45-, GM @ 74-, GPSI. @ 49+, GPU @ 45-, GTSG @ 57, HAE @ 23-, HIG @ 56+, HLYW @ 29+, IDXX @ 28, INHL @ 34-, INKT @ 142, LCOS @ 64, LLY @ 91-, MKL @ 183, MMC @ 59+, MXIM @ 45, PE @ 42-, PLXS @ 33+, RMBS @ 100-, SEIC @ 100, SGP @ 57, SYY @ 28+, UFS @ 49, UST @ 35-, VRTY @ 28....and/but, remember, I/we have NO "market scenario", ever, as you know....and, note, there have been too many minor breakouts, so I had to take real small, quick Puts losses, and NOT fight the tape, in those stocks....But that does not mean I am not finding more/new ones, in our Puttable Ind. groups, still showing the "EVT" or umbrella or double-top patterns.

and/but, Took, SANM, CCRD, UNPH, ALSI., NSIT, RGIS, CHIR, BMY, CTX, WLP, AYE, TEF, EMC, DA, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's.

....and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", NSANY, TAVA, FHCC, CEXP, CMIC, CIEN, AFCI., ALR, UQM, HPC, NRL, CYB, LSN, UWW, TKR, GDC, BJS, BEV, FWC, PRT, HCF, KPA, CYB, BYX, CLF, RBK, TMO, SOC, ISV, IMP, IGL, SIL, TIE, RIG, OH, as Longs near very recent lows, and, DCLK, COOL, CACS, DRTE, NEON, EXDS, CACS, COF, AIG, BEL, ALD, MRX, MOB, CI., as Puts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing such charts, also tells us, whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.


All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit ....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, and still remaining long in most of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, up already, and/but acting O.K., so stay in these for now):

**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)

still giving you plenty of nice risers (note, these have always been listed, in order, from the biggest % moves, to the smallest important most recent % price moves): read this list carefully, we are hot again: ACLY 7 3/8 up 2 5/8 wow (sos), PGO 15 3/4 up 2 3/4, VDC 4 1/2 up 7/8, TXB 4 7/8 up 7/8, PAM 4 3/8 up 5/8, COE 5 3/4 up 1, LXR 1.38 up 0.32, SWW 2 3/4 up 1/2, SEW 4 1/4 up 3/4, ILX 2 3/8 up 3/8, ESV 11 3/4 up 2, NR 6 7/8 up 1, FTL 15 up 2 1/2, NBR 14 3/8 up 2 1/4, CSE 25 up 3 1/2, VTS 14 1/8 up 2 1/8, HPH 11 3/8 up 1 3/4, GLDR 1 1/4 up 5/16, NBTY 7 3/4 up 1 3/8, BIR 4 5/8 up 3/4, NETM 1 7/8 up 1/4, MMG 5 7/8 up 1/2, PAH 6 3/8 up 5/8, PDE 7 up 5/8, GLM 9 5/8 up 1, SHG 6 7/8 up 1/2, OMPT 10 1/4 up 1 1/2, VRC 8 3/8 up 3/4, BUNZ 10 3/8 up 1 1/8, MIFGY 10 5/8 up 1 3/8, FLM 10 7/8 up 1 1/4, ESV 10 7/8 up 1 1/8, NOI. 11 3/4 up 1 1/2, FGI. 12 3/8 up 1 3/4, GGC 17 1/4 up 1 7/8, BUR 11 up 1, AIN 20 up 2, WFT 20 5/8 up 2, NDE 11 1/2 up 1, VTS 13 1/4 up 1,

(cont'd.) TOY 17 5/8 up 1 1/4, BTC 13 3/8 up 1 1/8, IT 22 1/4 up 1 3/4, SOL 17 3/8 up 1, PRD 20 1/8 up 1 3/8, REV 17 up 1 1/4, ROP 20 1/4 up 1, TDW 23 1/4 up 1 1/2, TWLB 13 7/8 up 1 1/8, SDC 15 3/8 up 3/4, DO 24 1/2 up 1, TKOCF 3, NPSI. 14, CYM 10 1/4, MAH 12 1/2, IAIC 1 5/8, CCC 7 3/4, CDE 4 7/8, CTI. 8 1/8, PVH 7 3/8, UPR 9 1/2, LTV 6+, FNL 6+, MT 15 3/8, MLHR 27- (sos), WND 8 1/4, UC 3 5/8, PDS 12-, LFB 11 3/4, MCH 20 3/8, PAR 8 3/4, HBI. 6 3/8, PMK 28-, FHS 12-, BED 17+, WTT 2, MGN 3 1/2, HBI. 6 3/8, LSS 11, IHS, BS 8 5/8, NX 23 up 1, AG 8, up/further, since last time here....

note, HOC 17, VDC 4 3/8, BEV 7-, UC 3 5/8, DX 5, revalidated, and rose anyway, again showing the strength of allowing a little "leeway", near the low....

also, note, LIPO 16+ wow, SMOD 28, HTCH 36, PETM 12, IFMX 10-, JBL 75, NWC 22, NIN 16-, GCR 6+, GALTF, AFCI., CHRZ, higher still, gave you herein near lows....

note: please appreciate, that I have some subscribers who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of many reaons why we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and increase one's stress, on purpose, is beyond illogic.

and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, Oil Service and Steel stocks, AXC 1 1/8 up 3/8, ELCO 2 5/8 up 7/8, BEV 6 7/8 up 1 3/4, PCTL 7 up 7/8, INPR 5 5/8 up 5/8, UTI. 7 3/8 up 7/8, HMY 7 up 7/8, HOC 17- up 2 7/8, PAIR 8 1/4 up 3/4, BAANF 11 7/8 up 1 5/8, MCL 11 3/8 up 1, TGX 17 5/8 up 1 5/8, LDW 10 1/2 up 3/4, RON 26 1/2 up 1 1/2, JOB 7, 6 1/4, TXB 4, NWAC, MPS, HAL, ESOL, PCMS, NBR 13 3/8, LXR, SFSK, RMDY, JDAS, WKGP, HCM, LPX, AAC, VTA, IDTC, JBAK 6, TWA, HMY, MGN, HBI., ADM, WJ, WEL, BTC, SRR, MPN, TRMB, APFC, SUL, PDE, VTO, NGX, SSC, MCN, DAY, CCH, UPX, OO, MS, NS, FP, pb (pulling back)....some of these are also in "ms" list below.

again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops.... Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification"

* and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen,
and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(some of these are also in "pb" list above) Oil Service and Steels and cheap Golds, and, PDE 7 1/2 up 1 1/4, CEI. 23 3/4 up 1 3/4, HAL +1 1/4, CS 8 3/4, HBI., WORK, DBRSY, RDC, IMO, BMG, PAIR, WS, PLC, TDW, JBAK, MPN, KRY, MWY, TRMB, WKGP, HMY, TLZ, MHR, BDS, CXI., LDW, PDE, TFT, AXC, TWA, SSC, MCN, ELY, TMA, ADM, TOX, AMLN, NGX, VTO, AZC, CAU, MS, OO, cheap Golds, Energy/Svc./Expl., Steels.

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy puts on these now, but acting properly, stick around:
 Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further, read list carefully today: AOL -7, LLY -3 1/2, BYND -3, +2 (sow), CL -3 1/2, PLXS -3, TXN -3, BMET -2 1/4, AET -2 1/4, BRG -2, FDX -2, BOBE -1 1/2, CG -1 1/2, NMGC -1, MMC -1, CMA -1, MAS -1, GPU, CQ (S), down/further, just since last time here....again, many Internet stocks must still break below recent multi-lows.... and also see 'bouncers' below....also, note BEL -5, anyway, got whipsawed....

* Note, how I, again, am giving you some Puttable stocks which are Falling, as most of "the market", and especially high-priced, name, quality-type stocks, rise, again....that I am among the very few, giving out ANY profitable puts, since early Sept. (and tons more, from March, and from July through Oct.) should be enough, yes ?

Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit.... remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing....**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....


* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): BVSN +7, SEPR -3, +5, HLYW -1, +3, ELNK +4, INKT +10, MKL -3, VRTY -1, +2 1/2, MXIM +1, -1 1/2, IDXX -1, FLT -1, VL +1, -1 1/2, AET +2, MSPG, SNPS, SGP, LCOS, UST, BFO, RATL, CMVT, INHL, IDXX, RCGI., RFMD, SEIC, DLX, FAM -1, FTU, PMCS, HAE, AMAT, EFBI., SYY, SFXE, UFS, CG....See, many stocks, and Internets, must still "follow-through", and break below recent lows, to warrant holding their Puts or shorts....


Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.

6) Now--- Here are Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades, or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also, there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ? Of course, near the highs in March, and July, this list was much smaller, yes ? It is logical and expected, after the recent mini-crash, That there have been/are more "EVB's", yes ? Also, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows, with stops for protection.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for Rotation":almost no great Bases here, just many decent EVB's and double-or-triple-bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: when there are more stocks listed in an I.G. here, that tells you I feel more strongly about that I.G., right ? Which, in turn, tells you a lot about how "the market" looks, sometimes....

Semis/Comp./Techs: please see "Techs", listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
new group, somewhat riskier, longer-term: (Y2K) "Year 2000": (CMND, IAIC, MIFGY, but ONLY near recent lows, is maybe too late already, yes ?)
Prec.Metals (BMG, CDE, DBRSY, GSR, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, DAY, CAU, BGO, AR, some real cheapies, riskier)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Paper, Copper) (add, HPC, CLF, BIR, to, CH, LFB, RTC, MAH, CYM, CCC, TEN, CSE, FNL, BS, TFT, LTV, GGC, AG, LPX)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (add, RIG, UTI., to, UMR, BJS, PDS, TRP, LYO, NBR, WFT, RON, UPR, HP, TDW, SDC, ATW, NE, NOI., GLM, MHR, RDC, WEL, PDE, ESV, TRMB, FGI., VRC, DO, near their recent lows, only)
Biotech/Health/Medical (add, TWLB, to, SOL, FHS, MATK, NOV, PHYC, GNSA, SHG, LXR, TOX, ULB, CCLR, IPIC, TOX, MPN, IHS, MT, MS, VTA, TXB, VC)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (add, RXSD, REV, TOY, to, NBTY, SRR, COO, WND, PAR, PVH, PBY, SRR, HMY, KFI., MSN, OO, UNO, BLM, GCO, HBI., PRD)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (ILX, PAM, LOD, HET, SER)
Employment (add, NRL, to, OLS, JOB, MPS, RMDY, ESOL, UWW)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends, may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, add, HOT, FCH, LSN, KE, to, JAMS, BED, BD, LOD, PRT, SMT, OH, WDN, RTC, ACH, ARI., FHS, AMMB, NHR, BRE, PAH, AAC, ALF, AML, AMMB, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CMO, CRO, ENN, FBG, NDE, KPA, JPR, MAA, PMC, RFS, SIR, SPF, TMA, IMH, FP, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
NOTE: Tax-selling bounces beckon, yes ?

And, as I have been saying here, even though I have given you a ton of quick 50-100% gains, since Sep./Oct., do NOT expect as large rises off bottoms, as when I gave out similar "EVB" Techs, in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from the late '95 to early '96 period....I was first/only to do so near their lows at those times as well), because there are NOT many "true bases" here--- just some with good EVB's....we accept occasional Q, small losses in some longs, w/close stops, along the way, to get to the Bigger Winners....Also note that many already popped stocks pulled back, after their recent/initial "dead-cat bounces". This is normal, and welcome. Hey, many formed better bases, double-bottoms, etc., right ?

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": SYNT, SNY, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed above, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market.

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: add, ARG, ATX/A, CBJ, CIEN, CYB, EAR, GKI., GLBL, GSB, GYMB, HMY, IMG, IMP, IOX, LSN, NCH, NEM, NOX, PCAR, PIR, PKD, PSFT, REV, SCS, SOC, SSN, TSA, TWLB, UQM, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, (alphabetically by symbol) ALN, ALR, AOI., ATV, AXC, BA, BAANF, BEZ, BGO, BTC, CEXP, CFB, CFS, CPU, CS, CXI., DRQ, FHCC, FLM, FTL, GDC, GHM, HCM, HPH, IDTC, IGL, ILX, INPR, ISSI., IT, JDAS, KNE, LSS, LWN, MANU, MKA, MSX, MWY, NDE, NETM, NPSI., NWAC, NOX, P., PAIR, PCTL, PIN, RBK, SAA, SAMC, SEW, SIF, STRX, SUPX, SWW, TFN, TIE, TKR, TLZ, TMO, TWA, WKGP, WTT, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health"), plus, the Value Line issues: NSANY, DEMP, CEPH, GNSA, OFIS, BUNZ, SEW, TSA, MGN, COE)....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically... and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....also note, more addeds are also, in Farm, Energy, Health, Tech, REIT, Retail, Apparel, Airline, Gaming, industry groups, dig ? also, many Railraods and Trucking stocks look o.k.

**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base" technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ?

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):

(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet) now, I add some more Puttables, again, after/into recent bounces:

Fuller, Potential Puts list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY, do NOT "chase down":

note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
(banks/insur.) add WABC, AFS, to, HIG, CMA, CBC, FLT, AET,
(comp./techs/s'ware) BSYS, PLXS, NEON, CSC,
(telecom/commun.) CVC, CDRD, LLL,
(medical/health/drug) add, BMET, to, INHL, LLY, SGP, RFMD, BGEN, HAE, ABT,
(food/bev.) BOBE, PZZA, UFS, SYY,
(internet) add, EXDS, to, INKT, ELNK, EBAY, BCST, MSPG, AOL,
(others, misc.) SEIC, FRX, HMK, ENE, SSP, INSS, DLX,
also watching: added, ALD, AMTD, COMS, EAII., EXDS, FDX, FRO, LSON, MANH, MAS, MRX, NAB, NEON, NMGC, NTLI., OTEXF, PLCM, RESM, ZILA, to, ABT, ARMHY, CI., CL, CMVT, CXR, DS, DCLK, GPSI., GTSG, HLYW, IDXX, INSS, INTC, MKL, MXIM, NEON, NLCS, NVLS, PLXS, RINO, RMBS, SDLI., SEPR, SMTC, TER, UTX, VRTY, VRSN, XIRC,

the Best Puttable Industry Groups: still, added some Homebuilding, to, Extended Banks, Health/Medical/Drugs/Biotech, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Retail, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, all Tele.-Commun., in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....

additional note: there are also a plethora of big-name/biggest recent gainers, possibly forming V.S.T. "EVT" tops here, and are certainly now due for corrections....too many to list here....but you get my drift....

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I promised I would re-run "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm"", and, from 12/7 NL, through the 12/28 NL, I did so.....refer back to those sec. (8)'s any time.....hope they helped....but NO special "lesson" today, except to re-read recent explanations of stages 1-7....take that time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....

Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for 10-baggers over several years....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-month holds and moves, and NOT overnite, or daily or intraweek moves....

Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops, and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1 and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of each stage.

As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.

Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/ logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.