1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Oh, ye of little faith ....the unusual big rise early, then big drop after, among NASDAQ Extendeds, Monday 3rd, again smacked of a S.T. top, as I said....What a 'split' market.... That type of action on the NASDAQ extendeds, is normally called a 'key (downside) reversal day", and, most always leads to lower levels in them, as expected.... which has happened already to an extent....at least until early Wednesday....

Look at all those S.T. rolling top, like little 'hook tops', in section (3) and (7) puttable stocks, which you had plenty of opportunities to have bought Puts on, as explained/illustrated in my "Mastering the Downside" booklet....As I said earlier, they gotta fall at least down to their previous 'breakout-up levels' from, say, down around to their Nov. levels....like I said, tons of 'just lucky people' may wish they sold most of these stocks anywhere near recent levels, a few months from now....

Amazing, isn't it, that, just a few days ago, everyone else said, there would be a "Y2K" RALLY, right ?, yet, here we are, doing the opposite....as we expected, ay ? the pattern never changes....and, now, of course, everyone is searching to give 'reasons' (re-read my Booklet on "Scenarios")....God forbid they should learn some historical patterns, ay ? Never happen....remember, I recommended that, given the recent parabolic nature of many Extended stocks, one would stay in many bought Puttables, even assuming some 'fakeout breakouts' this time, as last-gasp-type, 'sucker-them-in' pops....so far, O.K.

Of course, as usual, all the pundits only 'began' to feel a little S.T. squeamish, or bearish, AFTER what 'they' have generally termed, the "10 % drop in the NASDAQ index, which they define as a correction", which fulfilled in just 3 days this week....from which levels, many intraday bounces occured, right from the moment that 10 % was fulfilled, dig ? I gotta see my charts this weekend, but I am fairly certain that this weeks' "3-day drops" was/is NOT "it" on the downside for many Extended stocks....It would be normal for some bounces, then a renewed second-stage decline, at least equal to the first-stage, to follow....we shall see....

And, Tues. nite, even with the NASDAQ drops, another trader-guy at Yoga approached me, saying, he supposedly "knew there was no risk buying YHOO call options way up at $ 250., etc., and no reason to sell it recently, because it has much more to go on the upside...." I asked him if he had ever done Puts, or even knew they existed, or ever bought anything near its bottom, and, before I even finished my sentence, he closed his eyes and his mind....get it ? He will likely float down a river of hope, and give much, if not all his recent gains back, in all his only-extended longside positions....The V.S.T.-traders, I think, have not endured enough pain, yet, compared to what should end up experiencing, before the corrections end, lower....and much less than they experienced in last summer's predicted correction....we could still have that coming....

Here's one thing to watch for: take/view the low price for any "extended NASDAQ" or other stock, from last November, and that's the 'neckline' of sorts, which must be broken below, in order to confirm a bigger decline....Or, the Nov. '99 price, above which it had its (potentially) 'final pop up to its recent highs', and that is where many drops-into-early Wed. stopped, very-short-term.... Many extended stocks also almost got down to their 50 DMA, early Wed., so, note how easy it would be for dozens of big-name stocks to crack further, after bounces....as their 200 DMA's continue to rise steeply....Of course, I have not been that great on the Putside lately, until very recently, so being careful here, but IN a put or two still....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7).... and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:1) as the 30-year T-bond hit 6.64 % predicted recovery high yield, remember, this represents, as I had suggested, a slight upside 'overhshoot' in interest rates is occuring....But the 10-yr. Bond now yields only slightly less (about 0.4 % less) than the 30-yr. Bond, meaning, more institutions are/will be opting for the shorter-term paper, and fewer for the longer-term paper....and, not to 'scenarioize' too much, realizing that the "Federal Funds Rate" has been around 5 1/2 % all last year, even as other I.R.'s rose, means, that that rate 'gap' will likely have to play 'catch up' as well, and, either, L.T. rates will fall back a bit, or, the F.F. Rate will rise a bit, from this week's lows.... 2) I was reminded recently, how, in Spring '98, after my predicted drop in Internet stocks, all the pudits were saying, how, "they are now interest-rate plays....when/if I.R.'s rise, their stock prices will fall, and vice-versa, etc.", remember ? Well, gee, I.R.'s HAVE risen, for 2 years now, generally, and, yet, their stock prices have risen, many parabolic, yes ? So much for trying to "link"....Re-read my "Scenarios" booklet....Anyway, this time around, after they correct (and many are doing so), those same wrong-way pundits will probably drag that tired tome up again....late, as usual....to no avail or factual historical basis.... 3) potential kudos to Merrill, who, Tues., came out with new bullish rec's on Grocery stocks, like, KR, ABS, SWY, etc. I have been watching these recently, and they may need more work, technically-chartwise, and I will let you know if they pullback to make bases....there are/were no super EVB's in them, yet, though....any other stocks you are aware of in this I.G. ? ....4) looks like I was, again, the first/only to have given out the truly-depressed "Computer Memory/Storage" stocks herein, like, IOM, WDC, RDRT, DSS, STK, etc., herein near recent lows for you....see their little bases ? Interesting that, so far, they are popping, as parabolic Techs correct....NO "Linking".... 5) darn, we got whipsawed in two Util. stocks for you, but, as you know, we remained liking long, and in, others, and the DJ. Util. Avg. itself....Look at the "EVB" on the DJ. Util. Avg. itself....and, of course, bases among other interest-sensitive ideas, in the REIT, R.E., Insur., stocks....all of which I was, again, the first/only to have liked recently, while 'the 95 %' have hated them at recent lows....the pattern never changes, sentiment-wise.... 6) I missed 'the recent top' in the extended Telecom/Telephone stocks, sorry, but they never really formed rolling tops....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Isn't it interesting, that, last Fri., the Media loved the Techs, then, on Tuesday/early Wed., they all hated them at their intraday lows....yet, what has really changed within their 'fundamentals' ? nothing....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) nothing new today, rare....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) CNBC, Mon., 10:25 am, had perma-L.T.-bear Jim Grant on again (why ? instead of me ?), author of a book, "The Trouble with Prosperity" (how's that for a messed-up title, psy-chologically ?), still maintains 'hope' for Gold, and sees the obvious split between old-line and new firms' stocks, seeing value in the depresseds, as I do....he sees interest rates going significantly higher....how ? got me.... 2) a probably-correct guy, Tom Galvin, from DLJ, Monday after close on CNBC, echoed my sentiments that Crude OIl would pullback towards $ 20. bbl. by June, and that I.R.'s would NOT rise much more, before falling back a bit again.... 3) kudos to Alex, Brown, Monday, for new buys on super-depressed Agri-Fert. stocks, like, AGU, TRA, IGL, POT, GRO, which I have, a long time ago, gave out as buys their last bottoms, two-three years ago herein....(and, SQM, which you got at 28+ herein).... But, because most were not even in my chart books, I never saw their recent EVB's, sorry....but, on bigger pullbacks, will check them out again....

4) Mon., on CNBC noon, PIMCO's top bond-money-mgr., Bill Gross, said rates will likely rise just above his original target of 6 1/2 %, but said nothing about the future....rare for him....wonder what that means.... 5) evidently, last Friday, Abbey J. Cohen actually broke the 'closing bell gavel' on the NYSE, in emotional glee....could that also be a weird sentiment S.T. top sign for extended stocks ? ....6) Tuesday at the opening, Solomon Bros. reduced their exposure to equities, from 60 % stocks, to 55 % stocks.... 7) Wed., 8:25 am, Ed Hyman, ISI. Group, actually showed a shocking 4-year chart illustrating a near=perfect correlation, between 'the S & P 500 index, and, 'U.S. Retail Sales'....up and down, each move, vs. net change % in sales....wow....of course, this was still on hindsight, dig ? Of interest, its recent ratio was at the same Overbought level, as before the 1981, and 1987 corrections....dig ?

e) more general items proving why one should ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) Peter de Jager, the supposed "discoverer" of "Y2K", was on CNBC, Mon., 10:15 am, who was, BTW, on a plane, at midnight, new years' eve, because he "knew there was no problem with that", said, first, that it was, to an extent a hoax (?), but then, said, we are still not out of the woods completely, and that, only after nationwide payroll stuff works out well, when/if it does, on/after Jan. 15th, will breathe a sigh of relief, regarding Y2K....He seemed angry, that, "the many people who helped fix these problems to a large extent, are now being punished, because there are no catastrophes"....huh ? ....2) Why CNBC continues to over-expose John Bollinger is beyond me, but, Tues., 12:55 pm, he actually had the audacity to say, "see ? while I did not predict either a bull, or bear, market, recently, I did predict volatility....and, today, we have it...." Uh, excuse me, but we have BEEN "volatile" for months ALREADY, which you were not specifically helpful about, anyway, yes ? So, of what good are his comments ? He admits not having predicted things...so why have him on at all ? re-read my "Scenarios" booklet, section on "words"....

f) 1) you know how I eschew most all 'fundamentals/scenarios', but, I was thinking: given how ELNK, MSPG, etc., are down, yet tons of 'Internet-using companies' are parabolic, one would think, since the latter, must use the former, often, for many transactions on which the latter's business depends (?), either, the depresseds will catch-up or get taken over at some point not too far ahead, or, the parabolics must correct....makes sense ? maybe both ? so, I added both to buy st near lows.... 2) a very interesting article, L.A. Times, Travel section, 2/2, "History may be written in stone, but is it the truth ?" talked about "fibs about history", a new book called, "Lies across America: what our historic sites get wrong", illustrates my "PSYCLE sm" concept beautifully....It took a non-profit source to expose the many incorrect and misleading, pretty-much-just-to-generate-marketing-and-tourist-revenue 'sites' in our great country, which are NOT based on factual events, etc. Of course, this upsets many, but the truth often does, yes ? The author wrote, "we sometimes deceive ourselves through our monuments." How sage....I would, add, 'often for selfish and/or political purposes derived from emotional insecurities and greed', but I don't want to ruffle still more feathers here....And, of course, most school textbooks are in need of updating, or changing, historical events of import (also somewhat subjective, I realize, but also based on economic/political agendas.... go read his book, if you wish, 'nuff said.) Remember, "PSYCLE sm" tenets often apply to all areas of life endeavors....just wanted to share this item with you.

As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....