1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) cash Gold hit $ 425, highest in 8 yrs., period...and, Silver hit 6.25 here, last resistance high was around $ 6.16 in May 1996, highest since 7/98....copper 1.083 new 6-yr. high, palladuim hit 843., a 23-year high, as i mentioned B4....the Euro hit 1.2684, and DXY 85.98 intraday, lowest since 11/96....TDR Incorrectly wriote, "hardly anyone thinks th dollar will continue to fall" - when, in fact, the opposite is true- EVERYONE ELSE out there is bearish on the DXY, now, right ?, and, finally, another sign of at least a s.t. bottom in the DXY soon --- Ron Paul (dgms) finally wrote a bearish-on-the-dollar tome in TDR....get it ?, teh patterns arrely change, re-read my Booklets....
2) as F and VC rise further, recall how, as usual, I was the first/only to give out all the super-depressed-and-hated-by-the-analysts-who-only-love-them-at-highs were at their lows earlier, yes ?, you're welcome....anyone out there learning my stuff ?, if not, why not ?
3) most given-here-from-lows-first-only-also Airlines, have laready pb to their 200 DMA, ahead, as we have yet another decent example of my PSYCLE at work, stage by stage, ay ?, you're welcome.... 4) and you're welcome yet again, as i was, as usual, the first/only to give out the depressed wireless sytocks in stage 2, herein, lows, Q, PCS, AWE, etc., yes ? so what else is new.... 5) but the TNX bond yield up to 4.412 %, then 4.257 %, get it ?, a s.t. double-top was ?, and, the cash Bond fell towards 107+....
6) might 'China" stocks be entering stage 2 again ? ....7) I took most extended 'wrieless' off pot. put list, but extended Comp./SW/Retail/enterprise, ramain.... 8) plus, extended Homebuuilding, and Biotechs, and Financials, like, Banks, Mtg., etc. ?.... 10) oh, and let me be as usual the first/only to suggest a US dollar BOTTOM ahead not too far off/lower, because, in the last few weeks, I have now heard the usual bearish-only-after-big-drops, near-lows comments from all sorts of idiots, get it ?, NO one else out there is even remotely hinting at lows in the dollar, dig ?, re-read my Booklets....oh, and, NO one is mentioning how, to FOREIGN banks, our US dollar is starting to get nice and attractive, dig ?, 'nuff said....months from now, I will remind you I said it first herein, as usual, yes ?
10) cash Crude Oil rose to near 12/02's high of 33.90, so now most all the commods are highs, so by definition, must be near the beginning-of-the-end for all of them ?, we shall see if once again, as usual, looking back a few months from now, if I will, again, have been among the first few to suggest the end of the extended rises therof, ay ?,
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt.,
etc.:
1) for the year 2003, evidently, 6.1 mm+ homes were bt./sold, incl. 1/1 mm new ones, generating $ 3.4 T. in mtgs., equal to 1/3 of the U.S. GDP....interestingly, aptmt. rents in EUROPE are up like +50 % the last 2 years, as the US dollar fell, hmmmm, ssee the relationship ?.... 2) TDR had the temerity to write, "well, there is still a major crisis coming....we have no idea what will happen, from where, or when, or how...." uh, excuse me, but anything you write after that is pretty much drek, ay ?, again, I rest my case....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) evidently, the TMV of all US assets, like, RE, stks, bonds, commods, corp. assets, etc., around $ 50 trillion ? ....2) TDR only now writes about "a small pharm. co. which will steal billions from the big drug giants, ahead"....he is now bullish on the Generic Drug stocks - uh, a bit late, ay ?, and, he also was NOT bearish (as I, WAS, recall), on the big druggies at their 2-years-ago tops....nor was he bullish on the generics at their lows a while ago (uh, again, I gave a few out at lows herein, back then, as well, specificaslly predicting the 'biggies-down/generics-up' stocks trade concept, yes ?),
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) and, as usual, B.S. only highlights PZZA & SNPS, bullishly, now....I gave PZZA 2 U herein at lows, yes ?, and currently looking at SNPS bearishly, dig ?, the patterns arrely change.... 2) continuing ambiguous, McLaellan evidently has a 9-mo. cycle LOW due in mid-Jan., uh, excuse me ?, how does that make sense ?, dgms.... 3) changewave's t. smith remains super-bullish on stocks, period, no corrections expected still by him, also predicts nat. gas to $ 12, and still loves generic-drug stocks even up here.... 4) at least Bill Bonner from TDR admitted how bearish on stocks he was a year ago....but he mentioned it as if that didn't matter - uh, excuse me ? dgms.... and, of course, Richeard Russell was also bearish, as usual....until lately.... and, he mentions how, "Templeton, Soros, Rogers, Russell, and TDR, all ran for cover in late 2002" - uh, and they all stayed incorrectly bearish on stocks, and incorrectly shorted Tech. stks. as well, all year, and still, dig ? but, yes, some of them did get some Gold stocks....big deal....
5) Ken Fisher (dgms) is now super-bullish, which is another go-slow signal, ay ?
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ...
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
8 more Longs, neat....
and,
3 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns
note, from now on, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
at least 1/2 pos. puts PRX (73+ to 63) for big Q % Gain....at least 1/2 pos. puts KVHI (32+ to 20+) for VQ % G....at least 1/2 pos. s.o.m. MCH (9+ to 13+) for Q % G....1/2 pos. recons AWE (6.5 to 8.1) for Q % G....1/2 pos. calls SRDX (20 to 24) for VVVQ % G....bal. calls KSU ( to 15-) for l.t. % G....1/2 pos. calls NLY (16 to 19) for % G....at least 1/2 pos. calls CPKI (17+ to 21) for VVVVQ % G....1/2 pos. calls ENZN (10++ to 12+) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. s.o.m. & recons (6 5/8 to 8 3/8) for % G....1/2 pos. calls NTIQ (11- to 14++) for Q % G....1/2 pos. puts CHIR (57 to 51+) for VVVVQ % G....bal. calls CEI., bal. calls SGP,
and/but, longs, , and, , puts, ANSS, ATYT, ILXO fo ?, ALA, SNPS, JPM, COX, ILXO bo ?, HDWR, USTR or fo, CBI, QQQ, PCL ?, SPX fo ?, UNH, WPPGY, the NAZ/COMPX, MVSN, RCL, OSI, KRB bo ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....but longside a bit upsetting, rare, as U know....and always presages a better period, yes ? are you learning ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
AMD 10.75 % due 11/04 recons @ 93, 1/3 pos. CTLM @ 5-, SRDX @ 20, 1/3 pos. BORL @ 8 5/8, GLT @ 12.11, CPKI. @ 17+, CRXA @ 5 1/2, HLYW @ 12+ eh, 1/4 pos. MTON @ 1 3/4-7/8 a spec EVB, CYPM @ 0.16,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): 1/3 pos. PSS @ 12 1/8 eh, 1/2 pos. HMN @ 13, 1/3 pos. DSS @ 3-, 1/2 pos. LFP @ 0.36, 1/3 pos. AWE 9 3/4 % recons @ 99 w/AWE @ 6++, AIV @ 33+ fobd, EP 18.25 % recons w/EP @ 7-, MCEM @ 18-, 1/3 pos. ENZN @ 10+, and a super-spec ISYN @ 0.011, 1/4 pos. IOM @ 5+ eh, BSIO opb 0.165 ?, PTGC @ 0.155, HPI. @ 24+ eh, 1/3 pos. ZF @ 4++, ACTI. @ 7 3/8 ? bd ?...."buy (only) low", right ?,
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, ROXI, BSIO, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
1/2 ORBK ?, CHIR @ 57, ACAS, APPB @ 39+, GENZ @ 50+, BUD @ 52++, STJ os ?, SNPS, MBI. ?, CSC, AMG ?, DOV ny, VRTS ny ?, MOGN os ?, TASR @ 88,
FHR non ?, FCFS oso, MOGN os, AFCO oso, KRON here ? no, SIVB @ 36, HOTT os ?,
ENR @ 38+, 1/3 pos. BUD @ 52+, 1/3 pos. WRI. @ 45+ ?, KMI. ?, NBIX @ 56, RARE @ 26-, 1/2 pos. BEN @ 48-, PRX @ 74+, 1/3 pos. 1/3 pos. MRBK @ 45 soon ?, 1/3 pos. SHFL @ 31+ eh, 1/2 pos. AFL @ 36, NSANY @ 23++, O. @ 40+, SCHS @ 30+, SWBT @ 39++, 1/3 pos. OHP @ 45++, SYMC no, EVG eh, JKHY @ 19+, WWY @ 57- eh,
"Repeats":
>
EQR @ 30 fo, GD ctbo ?, KVHI. @ 32 fo, NSIT @ 19+ ?, WHR @ 73, TGT @ 40, KLAC os, CZN @ 12+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, HON, SHRP, FHR bo ?, IWM, TALX, SBL, JNPR, ECA, KRON, SYMC ?, FINL, CCU, AME, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", ICCI, BMRN, BSTE, MYGN, CDCY, WEBM, CTLM, CK, BMRN, BCGI, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, TASR, RSH, AMZN, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7)....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
SGI. 1.98 up 0.50 sos, MTON 2.78 up 0.55, DSS 3.86 up 1.05 nice, CPKI. 21.07 up 2.22 sos, TIBX 7.75 up 0.98, CYPM 0.20 up 0.04, SRDX 24.97 up 2.66, CTLM 6.18 up 1.38 nice, CEI. 17.71 up 1.06 sos, LVLT 6.46 up 0.84, SGP 18.49 up 1.33, ENZN 12.76, CRXA 6.65 up 0.60, BORL 10.23, HMN 14.61 up 0.94, MCH 13.33 soso, ZF 4.97, GLT 12.60, KSU 14.97 (S), HLYW 14.20, PSS 13.55, AMD 15.85 recons up, AWE 8.50 recons, EP 8.60 recons, IOM 6.17 up 0.36, NTIQ 14.75, IOM 6.20, JNJ 52.08 up 1, THC 16.45 ctbo, AMD 16. recons, FSS 18.15, higher since last NL here....and, ENZN, JNJ, PSS, approach/above 200 DMA....while, TNB 23, CMTL 35, VC 11+, SC 46, CDCY 11 1/2, even higher still....
and, these are either pulling
back, or bouncing, after new expected pb's:
obviously, getting plenty of pb's:
TTIL 4.65, 5.25, MAT 18.76 (B), 19.62, 18.79, MTON 2.27, NCA 9.39, 0.20, MCH 12.46 sos ?, IFPG 0.18 pb, bopb, ALOY 5.49 up, CRXA 6.12 pb, IOM 5.75 pb, 6.20, HMN 13.94 pb, AWE 8.11 pb, msf, ZF 4.92 pb, ....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
HLYW 12.28 dn ibg, non, WTNT ms, PSS 11.97 (B), 13.34, ALOY 4.65, 5.11, SVM 11.75 up, ms, HPS, NLY 18.15, 18.72 sos ?, ACTI. 7.37 bd ?, dn non (B) ? bms, CRXA 5.30 fobd (B), 6.10, AG 19.54 pb (S) ?, CPKI. (S) bal. ?, PSS 12.69 pb, SDRX 22.65 pb, msf, and ENZN msf, AIV 33.95 dn 1, SGP, LEO....and, were, IO, BFT, more fobd's ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
KVHI. -8 nice, sow, CHIR -5 1/2, PRX -4 1/2, NBIX -3 1/2, ENR -1, BUD -1 1/2, NSANY -1, AFL -1 1/2, OHP -1, APPB -1, TASR -1 1/2, GENZ -2 1/4, down lower since last time here....and, TALX, KMRT, down to 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
note, as mentioned in sec. (2) above, how many puttables popped
back up to potential resistance levels - and some are on verge of breaking
out/up, and some had minor breakouts, poss. fobo's ?, so you're call from here in
those, as usual (pun intended):
EQR, KRB bo ?, TEVA +1, -2, COX bo ?, BER, STK, MHK, ACXM, SYMC non, MIK, CNCT, GPT, MCY, ENR, WWY, KLAC -1, BBBY pos, WHR -2, SWBT +1, CYMI. -2, +2, CHS mwf, CZN, NSIT +1 ctbo ?, ANPI. +1, PRX +1 1/2....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depr.
techs, telecoms, most/all computer-stuff, biotechs, drugs, cap. goods,
machy/equip., some blue chips, alt.-energy-relateds, internets, etc. No need to
give specific IG's here....except for sec. (2) part (1) above comments, like,
cap. goods/equip./trans. stocks as recent pot. db's, etc.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
still adding some, dig ?:
like:
MTON spec EVB, BRCD @ 200 DMA, VDM, BSG, WEDC ?, BSTE ?, LSS obpbo, SEHO another spec, CYPM opbo, to, AEM opb, CPKI., CTLM no, bd ?, ISIS ??, MCDT ?, ESV obpb, GLT, LENF, SRDX, DRD, AMRI, BRCD, HMN, MCH obpbo, FRM opbo, DSS, PCS ?, to, RPHL opbo (spec), AIV, DUK, JRSE, ICOW opbo, GONT obpbo, ACTI. ?, IOM l.t. db ?, MCEM, JNJ, DYII. ?, MCCC tln, ENZN, NTIQ opb0, FSS obpbo, to, IFPG obpbo, BMRN obpbo, RINO eh, CEPH vsto ?, CSTR ?, MYGN eh, COKE obpbo, PCS owo, MAT opb, CVG opbo ?, ABS obpbo, CRXA obpbo, IDPH sto ? eh, SBC ltto, Q. eh ?, ESV opb, LSS ds ?, SGI. ny, THC obpbo, to, PSS nah, CEI. div., BORL obpbo, HPS eh, LEXG opbo, to, IDNX obpbas, FTO obpb, HPI. 9 % ?, UGRD eh, ZF, POM opbo, AGIL opb, LEXG obpbo, GLBL ny, LFP opbo, CRGN obpbo, AKLM obpbo, SUNW obpbo,
all, as EVB's, or double-bottoms, or bases....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, EP 18.25 % recons @ 6.66, d/s prot. to 4.62, to, CEI, AIV no, HPS, NLY, ZF 10 % ?, HPI. eh ?, NCA, LEO, DTE opbo, to, GAB opbo, VLCCF opb, EVM opbo,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !
added, APPB, AMZN, ACAS,, AAUK ?, CRAI. ?, CHIR, BKMU, CANI, FITB, FILE, IBCP ?, KLAC, ROST, HPOL, IBOC bo ?, ISLE, MSTR ?, ORBK ?, SWBT fo ?, TTMI, SPLS, USTR fo ?, LAVA, VECO ?, AFL ?, AMG, ABK, COF, FNM, CMI, MBI, KRB, JCP, RSH, BRE, to, NITE, CYBX, HOTT, SIVB, TASR, CSC ?, KMI. ?, WRI, SYMC ?, NBIX, GTRC, to, HIT, IFX eh, O, SUP ?, AFL, BWA, BUD, DOV, DRL ?, EMC, GPT, MER, OHP, NAV, AD, XXIA, AFCO, INTU eh, nah, MDCO, NSANY, PFGC, RARE, SYMC, SWBT, VRTS non, NSIT, EMC, ENR, KBH, to, SBL, UHS, CYMI, KLAC, BBBY, CHS, AMT, AMZN, SLVN fo, VTSS ?, COF, SDS, MHK, VIP eh, CFBX fo ?, ANPI, ASKJ ?, BHE, PGR, STAR eh, FBR ds ? ny, AMG fo ? eh, BER fo ?, EQR, ET, FCFS, SRCE, GTRC, PIXR, SCHS, WWCA, WFSI, to, AMI. oso, RMK, WWY, TGT, KMT bo ?, ACXM, CMCSK, CCL, HCR ?, PCL, SII. ?, ABER, TEVA, GENZ, AGN, CVC, DIGE nah, SRNA oso ?, ECA, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES