1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Please be sure you read, and re-read, last Thursday's super- NL, becaue it says and shows it all....of course, the 'a-little-late-comers' traded an all-time record 2 billion shares, Thu., meaning, tons of money has moved around recently, some back in, after missing lows, some out of strong-till-recently issues, etc. Well, as well as I have done for you all-around lately, this remains NOT an easy marketplace.... many cross-currents remain, aas it may take a little time for some depresseds to form better bases, as I suggested a while ago, yes ? so continue to have patience, take gift-gains quickly as usual, and relax....you are in good hands.... I guess that obvious, easily-exploitable, rare, double-bottom-base formation on the NYSE's A/D line worked well again for us, yes ?

Hence, the TON of mostly longside Gainers for you lately....was kinda easy, ay ? propbably one of the best S.T. periods I have given out in a while.... glad to be of aid....will try to keep it goin' for you....

as more proof of the power of my "PSYCLE sm", we did not have to know that the Fed would do anything, yet this NL 'bought' tons of stocks right near their lows, without any 'news' or 'fundamentals' (but plenty of good technicals and sentiment stuff', right ?), and, sold many after nice VQ pops, not buying the 'buy at any price only after the news came out' V.S.T. sucker-in atmosphere we heard at the V.S.T. highs last Wed./Thu., dig ? do also note the many 'fobd's' which revalidated recently, as usual, around the late Dec. period, yes ? and, the predicted 'fobo's' among extended Financial and Health stocks, among others, before their recent 'surprising only to the 95 %' drops, dig ? also normal for this time of year, ay ?

as you have been taught it never pays as much to broad-brush markets or indexes, instead, trading just specific stocks and groups as they rotate in both directions, via my concepts, which has always been easier,low stress, better performance over time....However, note, from the plethora of QSG's in recent section (3)'s in recent NL's, MANY issues are already up to initial upside resistance and/or previous break-down levels, so I recommended taking TONS of QSG's, as you have learned to do....Only after normal pullbacks, as usual, we may well revisit some of those very ideas, lower than today's prices, dig ? Thus, as mentioned earlier, many issues are doing nothing more than bouncing back up towards levels previously broken-down below, right ? so still suggest still holding some cash positions, and taking a bunch more QSG's for you....but still buying plenty of new ideas as they pullback to or remain near recent lows, yes ?

Getting some expected pullbacks and ancillary pops, obviously, could not continue "last-Wed.-like" rises forever, of course (but you'd be surprised at the phone calls I got only finally near the close, last Wed. - late, as usual, emotional, dig ?) Tons of bounces have already approached initial upside resistance levels I tauight you to take at least 1/2-pos. Gains around, when happens too fast, yes ? of course, the smartest $ was already in (and out to an extent !), but, then, you knew that....and, as to that expected that big drop in Utils., "but, Jim, Utils. are so safe, and hardly ever move much...." As per my Booklets, I wrote, "yeah, right"....

as you have been taught, from a PSY-chological p.o.v., try not to be concerned about whipsaws or 'fobd's' you might have missed, because you caught so many others, and continue to do so, right ? Of interest, CNBC said, that, Fri., only 4 of the NASDAQ 100 stocks, were up....a decent bottom sign, sentiment-wise ....and, 1/5, L.A.T. headline, "optimism over rate cut dims as markets decline anew", just as my Booklets teach us to recognize this "bullish one day, then bearish the next day, on the same news item" concept, as more reason not to follow what the Media says, day-to-day, etc.

note even smaller potential Puts list....but still some on there worth exploiting....one must continue to be in 'seom' puts almost all the time.... meanwhile, Mon. 9 am, got more longside good news, from CNBC, as Pisani said, "forget making money in the Techs....buy no Techs...." , which is as good a L.T. buy signal as we get at times, yes ? also, note, we have been having only 5-10-15 'new 52-week lows' on the NYSE daily for the last few weeks, further illustrating our predicted/expected bottoms....

special note: I was shocked and disappointed big-time that "Mr. Nasty and lucky" (Bill O'Darvasl of Newspaper and Daily Graphs), changed their chartbooks over the weekend, with no pre-announcement, such that they are not alphabetical anymore, but by pseudo-industry-groups, in no helpful order, leaving out tons of stocks, especially tons of Amex issues....geez....what a shame....still pushing hiw 'buy only high and never anywhere near lows' stuff....not as good for us....but then, if he was as good as he says, he'd have given all the Put stocks with high RS out, near their tops, as I did herein....and he';d have bought more truly-depresseds recently near lows....but, then I remembered, he never buys anything at depressed lows....nevertheless, in my Yogic mind, I still wish him well....he does provide some valuable services, and I am glad his products exist....br>

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) as the DJ. Trans. Avg. breaks out/up, recall who was clearly the first and only guy, to give out the Trucking and Rails right from their base lows, easily seen by us, and the Airlines from/at recent lows, as 'the masses' incorrectly as usual got bearish, "because of their higher fuel costs", while they bought the Energies at top for the same reason, while I gave you their Puts from their top....just great, for us, huh.... 2) as expected, that last pop in Utils. Avg. was, indded, another 'fobo'....are you learning the patterns ? ....3) note, we are already recommending taking Puts Gains in some given Insur., and Health, and Util., stocks ....how quickly things move, ay ? ....4) seeing, among other previously-parabolic stocks, the "B2B" stocks falling further, recall who was the first to predict their drop, herein, as JIm (oevrrated) DInes remained super-bullish on them, ay ? "But, Jim, you don't understand....they are gonna change retail habits forever, etc." yadda, yadda....yeah, right....the pattern rarely changes....

5) added a plethora more depressed Regional Banks, section (6) below...miss them at your own discretion....buy a few.... 6) also note, as usual, I was the first/only to give out the depr. "Foreign Telecom" stocks herein right near lows for ya.... 7) and, as I will probably end up being the first/only to notice from lows, Asian CEMF's look bottomy still.... 8) and recall the plethora of Insider Sles before recent drops, among many Financial stocks....wish I had finished my "Insider-activity-from-a-PSYCLE-p.o.v." booklet.... 9) looks like I was pretty-much the first/only to foresee a S.T. low in the 'Euro-dollar' herein for you, as it is already up + 15 -20 % off lows....and, I now notice the Yen hitting a new 17-month low....not yet ready for a bottom....which, if one 'links' 9an we generally do not, of course, means any pops in Techs/Semis will be trading S.T. moves only, as they form longer bases, yes ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1)idiot T. Costello, CNBC, Thu. 10 am, incorrectly sensationalized, "WGRD stock is just getting taken apart, down 8, to 12....." gee, Tom, you never reported its decline from 110 (!), as 'getting ripped apart, did you ? geez.... 20 and another in a huge line of ignorant questions, this one Thu. 12:10, from Pisani, to pres. of AMAT, asking him, "is there anything you can do or announce, that would bolster your stock price, here ?" need I explain the shocking dumbness and audacity of such a challenge to such a successful guy ?

2) the overreporting and sensationalizing of a no-big-deal situation with BAC on Fri., was, as usual, on CNBC, deplorable....first, its 'delayed opening', down just 3 points to 47+.... - still up from its recent 40- low, which, of course, NO one reported....then, the horse-racing-calling-yelling-gal on the exch. floor, ridiculous....last, the over-warning reports that surrouinded it, all day long, geez....get a life, people....and, first all those reporters....of little or no D.A.F.P.P.V.

3) as usual, heard a CNBC guy say, Fri. 11:40 am, "I don't get it....the Techs are pulling back....how can they do that, if they rose initially on lower I.R.'s ? they should continue to rise for the forseeable future...." no comment needed ....oy.... 4) and particulraly notice the fobo and drop in HON, and the fobd and rise in MAT recently -exactly the opposuite of what all the 'late/uselsss experts' all but guranateed would occur after thheir rise/drop, yes ? amazing, huh....not to me.... 5) Mon. 9 am, Bill Griffeth, CNBC, very incorrectly trying to sensationalize, exclaimed, "AMR stock, on fire lately, down 5 points, to $ 41." Excuse me ? ....6) amzingly ignorant comment, but potentially good for us: Tues., Bob Pisani, 11:10, said, "see how the charts of almost all Tech.-oriented I.G. indexes look the same here...floundering around down here, no breakouts in sight...." I'm not kidding....it doesn't get much better than that, for buying, sentiment-wise, ay ? are you learning ? are you doing ?

7) the pattern rarely changes: L.A.T. 1/5, headline, "Health-care stocks take a beating after rate cuts"....gee, let's see....all the experts who failed to buy these stocks (which I gave first at lows herein) much lower, recently hadtaken huge losses from having hled overpriced Techs all the way down, right ?, switching into the Health-care stocks only after they rose, right ? saying, 'among oither fundamentals, we expect the Fed to cut rates, which will supposedly help these stocks", right ? then, they GOT their I.R. cut, right ? and - but - their H.C. stocks FELL (as I was also, as usual, the first/only to predict recently) ! I just laugh when I read these headlines, don't you ? we can sometimes laugh all the way to the bank at times....do NOT 'link' expected fundamental stuff to future stock price moves !

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) a young analyst, Mr. Ward, on CNBC, Fri. 9:54, answering Q. on CCK, which I was, as usual, the first/only to give out herein near EVB low (asbestos, recall), saying, "they have some interesting fundamentals L.T., and could begin to improve 6 to 12 motnhs out....if I was in it, I would not sell it here near $ 9 -10...." Interesting, because, exactly as you have been taught, CCK is ALREADY up triple from its lows, yes ? the pattern rarely changes, late, for all fundamentalists, ALWAYS.... 2) 1/7, L.A.T., headline "Midwest: booming '90's becoming a fading memory", wrote, "now there is evidence that this mfg. region might already have slipped back into recession....Indiana, Mich., Ohio, and to a lesser extent, Kent., Tenn., Missou., the pain is widespread.... laying off thousands of workers already....auto, steel, retail, electronics, industries weaker....bad Decembers all around....all levels of commerce affected....weakening consumer confidence....we've had an economy zooming ahead at 100 mph, slow to 60 mph quickly...." 'nuff said....oh, interstingly, one person moving to Indiana from O.C., Calif., said, "I cannot believe it....I can buy a house here for $ 50 K", so everything is relative, ay ?

3) as usual, front-page L.A.T., 1/7, "Is the recent Fed I.R. cut enough to revive stock market ?", says, "don't fight the Fed", and showed chart of 1-yr. T-bill yield falling from 6.25 % to 4.63 % since Nov. '99.... 4) and, of course, I should not have to mention how, the newspapers in So. Calif. only devoted major front-page nasty stories to the Elec. Util. crisis, only AFTER, stocks of PCG and EIX had ALREADY gotten killed, which they did NOT predict, which would, of course, had protected tons of residents, yes ? thanks for nothing guys - again.... one element, NEVER reported enuf, as with 'water' out here, the biggest users oif Elec. are 'businesse, at 59 %, vs. 'residential' of 31 % or so, dig ? and, in a nicely-precient-S.T. top sign (from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v.), the pres. of Reliant Energy, whose greed and gouging has seen their earnings skyrocket temporarily, and their stock price rise + 600 % on the Calif. woes (they have been selling overpriced Elec. to Calif.), is angry that Calif. PUC is trying to capo rates out here to protect consumers....don't get me started....

5) oh, and even with this 'super-elec. crisis', note that EIX 'bought back' some bonds, and, PCG continues to pay stockholders a dividend....interesting, huh....so they must have some money, yes ? ....6) and, while we eschew most fundamentals, Ford and Daimler/Chrysler have each, cut back their est. 2001 production by - get this - 17 % and 25 % already....hey, we predicted the recession first....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) oy, here it comes....exactly as expected in "PSYCLE" stage 7, all the ooverpaid, previously-incorrect Util. analysts are now, of course, beginning to get bearish on the Calif. Utils. - don't get me started ....of further interest, also, is they remain, as normal in stage 5 or 6, bullish on the other Utils. which corrected nicely recently, anyway....God forbid they would ever sell anything near highs....next.... 2) MSDW's Phil Roth, an old compadre, on CNBC, Thu. 12;30, is still UN-convinced a new bull mkt. is in force (and, of course, I agree with him....except I gave out many correct Puttables recently, and he did not), by showing I.G.R. sectors differing in how they look ....kudos to him....

3) while I give unusual kudos to Harry Dent, who also called recent lows along with me, he did not call the drops in our Health and Finl. and Energy I.G.'s, and also,in fact, still favors 'finl. svcs.', Aisa (ex-Japan), and 'health care' stocks here....via his special update, 1/3/01....but, thankfully, favors the Tech. stocks the most....I wonder if HE 'pays up' or , like us, only buys near true lows....wish they would publish his actual, specific, L.T. T.R. ....4) CNBC actually let an opinion from a guy who did not sell Utils. near their tops, Util. analyst Ray NIles, Salomon S. Barney, who actually said, after the close Thu., "yes, we could see the Calif. Util. stocks going to zero"....excuse me ? to 'zero' ? can you believe that ? have these overpaid guys ever STUDIED any past history ? I mentioned the previous several times similar instances have occured, to those stocks here, in the past - and, as you have learned from me, they almost ALL provide nice bounces, and rise back up again anyway, in time.... amazing, those analysts, huh....

5) read Prudential's Larry Wachtel's year-end predictions for 2001 on Multex, and, he says, "markets will have a tough first half and a better second half....the Fed will cut rates in the second half....we'll bottom in the first half of 2001 and rally in the second half of the year...." like me, he likes, DELL, MOT, but also, ENE, WGR, NBR, EQT, P, all ideas that I gave out near their 1999 lows, herein, and do NOT like up here....his analysts must be telling him to like them now, because no one knowing patterns would, and I have more respect for him than that....and he also says NOT to love "MO" stock up here, so kudos to him on that as well...but, he hates JDSU at $ 40-, which I find puzzling, nor EMC near recent low...then, he said something I find abhorrent: "it is important that no one pay premium valuations for stocks any longer." As if it was EVER a good thing to have done at highs ? amazing, huh....he had to ruin it....oh, well, he's pretty-decent at what he does, but still nowhere near as good as we are.... he also likes PFE up here, weird, huh....

6) the latest already-destroyed stocks that many B-firms finally lowered opinion on, at lows, are, TMWD, KEYN, EBNX, VITR, INKT, and our LTD, Thu., unbelieveable....buy high, no stops, then hate it after a big fall....and people pay firms for that ? ....and I love that Bear S. finally just lowered FFIV to a 'buy' (still ! how's that for balls ?), at its lows.... 7) and, as usual, S & P and Moody's finally downgraded the bonds of PCG and EIX, Calif. Utils. - only after big price drops and news-known-long-ago - dig ? thanks for nothing - again -guys....can't wait for the ratings svcs. to downgrade most Internet-stocks-companies' debt - near the lows....the pattern rarely changes ....almost NO exceptions....the 'terrible news' ONLY comes front-page, AFTER big drops the source never predicted....ALWAYS.

8) kudos to LEH, who downgraded MMM, a stock I gave you herein with other Chems. in bases lows, when everyone else eschewed it, as usual, saying to lighten up, after a RISE, rare, as you know....way to go, guys.... 9) ridiculoous, as usual: a major B-firm just downgraded YHOO, at $ 29. (they, of course, loved it much higher, but don't getmestarted), but, interestingly, still have a firm upside target near $ 80. Make any sense to you ? ....10) recent issues of Advisor Mag., and Reg. Rep. Mag., have a shameless paid-for-but-looks-as-if recommended by-those-publications insert pitching Oppenheimer Funds, whose new favorite stock is our old TMO, their writing, "perfect business model, becoming attractive, no risk into the futre, etc.", to which I would ask, where were they when I was certainly the first and only to give it out herein at $ 14....the pattern rarely changes....next....

11) kudos to a Piper Jaffery analyst who mentioned, INTC, ADSK, LVLT, AAPL, COMS, as being depressed, decent companies, whith TONS of cash per share down here, interesting....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) as more incorrect-from-the-tops-anyway people begin to recognize the economic shoft already occuring, remember: 'the masses' and 'analysts, Media, etc., woried 'if' areas of out econ., are in a recession, will, by nature and "PSYCLE sm", only announce 'it is here', only AFTER it has already BEEN in force for a while, yes ? oh, as an ex-economics teacher (me), all the continuing talk about there supposedly being 'no inflationary pressures, so somehow that is a good thing' (which, as I said, it may not be, and may to be), in a recession, NO inflation is BAD, because firms cannot raise or maintain prices charges to their lower-demanding consumers, right ? think about that....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....