1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) Bob Pisani, CNBC, Thu., 11 am, misled, again, saying, "is there a more beaten-down industry group than the HMO's ?" Well, Bob, yes, dozens of them ! the stocks he chose to highlight as 'beaten-down", were: CI, WLP, UNH, OXHP, here....oy....not....meanwhile, note, we are getting more pops in Our depressed Health-related stocks given you herein near their lows, which NO one else liked down there, like, BBC, HMA, AAS, GHV, SCIO, BDY, HUM, HRC, etc....this could be good for the others given you in section (6) below, which have not yet bounced ? ....2) similarly, but contrarily, Thu., 10:35 am, CNBC, reported that Morgan, Stanley is now raising its targets on Hospital stocks....late, as usual, in their pattern, yes ? Remember, I was proud, back in Summer 1998, on TV, to have been the first/only to have given those out near lows as buys, only to get treated like crap by interviewer, and the brokerage firms, as usual....But, now, they are all up, some double already....where were they at the lows ? You know.... 3) as to Utilities, note, few had good 'chart bases' that had not broken recently, so it is no wonder no one out there (or me) caught all these attheir lows....no one should have....as a target, see its 200 DMA at around 302 ? ....4) also note, I was, again, the first/only to have given out some dpressed Auto-relateds as longs here for you, now popping....added some more in section (6) below....just as with the Aero./Def. stocks, ay ? CNBC will probably not even mention these, until they are higher, right ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) front-page L.A. Times, 1/4, "Biotech stock surge expected to continue", and, "investors have a new appreciation for the value of these companies now", normal late stage 3 headlines, yes ? as usual, too late, and listing only 'the biggest % gainers' in a table....while I gave all these near their 1998 lows, on TV, alone, I WAS wrong about these a for Q, S, losses, in 1999, as they formed even higher parabolas.... 2) L.A. TImes, 1/6, "Slump at the Dump", had long front-page treatise on how, as I first predicted two-three years ago, when BFI., WMI., WLM, etc., formed "PSYCLE sm" tops, "recycling" itself has been fading in popularity, and 'glamor' (and economic benefit), which shocks most uninfomred people....on top of this trend, Calif., N.Y., N.J., etc., find that 'landfill space', have become less costly and more available, counter what 'the experts' all said, which started the recycling trend years ago....INTO an economic boom.... think about that....Again, I am NOT advocating 'no recycling ever', as this is a political/emotional issue for many people, and this endeavor is a morass of juxtapositional details and issues in each area....in an age of greed, recycling has still not yet paid for itself, after many years already, other potentially helpful characteristics aside....just another example of a 'concept' which Wall St. loved, only at its top, without having predicting a future negative change which would have protected millions of investors....of course, now this 'late/negative' article, and the low price of WMI. and other 'waste/recycling' stocks, may mean a L.T. bottom is in, and the tide might rise again for recycling ? (which, of course, Wall St. will not predict) what do you think ? ....3) L.A. Times, front-page, misleading/incorrect headline, "Amazon shares dive on sales news"....Gee, AMZN stock had ALREADY fallen, from 106, to 77, BEFORE this "news" came out, hadn't it....then, it fell from 87 to 69....it "dived" because it fulfilled a predicted extended double-top chart formation, NOT because of any 'sales news'....and its sales actually DOUBLED, vs. last years' level....and, even though AMZN said "they would do nothing to narrow its losses", it, so far, has held around the mid-60 level....hey, they all loved it at $ 106, right ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) the pres. of Sony, Thu. am, actually suggested his own company's stock "could be in a bubble....a more appropriate level might be one-third lower ....a correction might affect other extended tech. stocks...." Wow...when was the last time you heard anyone in that position say something like that about his own stock ? of course, as I recently said herein, about the 'parabolic Asian stocks', I agree....Gee, wonder how I could meet him ? maybe I could help protect his immense wealth from here....BTW, L.A. Times, headline, was "Sony shares soar on word of stock split, driven by optimism", get it ? Very likely late stage 3, yes ? the pattern never changes, except for what the pres. said this one time.... 2) L.A. TImes, 1/2, mentioned how both AOL and YHOO are having to search for Internet companies growing faster than in the U.S., so are looking overseas more, etc. As taught you in my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets, this is what almost ALWAYS happens to high-tech. companies, when they see saturation in the U.S., and their stocks are way up in late stage 3, dig ? And, almost ALWAYS, the stocks of companies in that I.G. correct, forward, as their 'growth' slows, by nature....As I said, there is just so far the rubber-band can stretch in any one area, even given recent ridiculous 'overshoots'....While I detest most 'fundamentals', you do realize that NO other country, or combinations of other countries, beyond the "G-7 biggies", will/can possibly provide the revenue they can get right here.... therefore, a momentum top here ?
3) CNBC, Fri., 8:15 am, highlighted the two acknowledged "women's" websites, IVIL, WOMN, as having super-fast 'website traffic' growth, yet the porter asked, 'if they are growing, in visits and ads, so much, how come their stocks prices are way down ?"....once again, showing one cannot automatically 'link' fundamentals to stock prices.... 4) with the obvious-to-us double-top and drop in "LU", I recall all the 'experts' saying how they were 'immune' from risk near its highs, 'because they are such an exceptionally special company', etc. Of interest, a guy at Yoga whom I have offered countless times to teach my concepts to, finally admitted he had lost $ 65,000 recently on the drop in 'LU' ....of course, he had no protection, no diversification, and no knowledge of chart patterns....Does he desire to spend $ 99. to learn better, now ? you guessed it ....nope. Last, note how, S.T., it stopped falling, at around its Oct. '99 lows levels....of interest, LU is the most widely-held stock on the NYSE, and just lost $ 90. Bill. in M.V. in just the last few weeks, an all-time record $ stock loss ....but a CNBC reporter said, "Nortel, its main competitor, is taking advantage of LU's trials...." Yeah, I guess "NT's" drop from 110 to 75 (now 97+), illustrates that....not.... 5) Fri., CNBC highlighted "MXTR", only after was up already, of course, in our "Computer Memory" I.G., hopefully, more confirmation for us....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) Thu., 11 am, Paine Webber's Jim Preisser loves these stocks way up here for new money: OMKT, INSP, INKT, ORCL, etc., saying, "we are in a really early stage in the Internet-related industries"....Gee, if this is 'really early', what stage were they in, several hundred percent lower, 1-3 years ago ? then, I saw him, and he looked very young....no historical perspective knowledge, I surmise ? Why do B-firms not teach their analysts --- ah, forget it....it will never change....Well, he who does not learn historical patterns, may be doomed to fall prey to it as repeating patterns fulfill, ay ? FYI, among the many shortcomings I felt as a good broker at E.F. Hutton in late 1970's forward, was that they never even told us how to do our own taxes, nor about helpful business deductions, etc....yet they just expected us to rip-off people for more sales tranactions....How could a firm counseling others, not train their own brokers better ? don't get me started.... 2) kudos to the DLJ analyst who cut his rating on "CSC" stock, right near its top (even though it had no chart 'top formation') ....
3) the Loomis, Sayles analyst chosen by CNBC, 9:50 am, hates all Auto-related stocks, even though they sell at very low PE's, and potential bases....but he loves the Oil Service stocks 'up here....they are going to have a huge run-up because the fundamentals are fantastic" (that's a quote)....hmmm, the Autos are down, so they hate them (I kinda like some of them, as you know), yet, they love an I.G. which has ALREADY had a 'huge run-up', yes ? (so I go the other way, on them, as you know)....But he did warn against "dangerous to own SUNW", agreeing with me, to his credit....and, he mentioned "MO" with a potential 8 % div., as L.T. interesting, admitting having held it all the way down without a stop (but did not mention, that, they may lower or eliminate the div. in the futre, which he should have)....and the other analyst chosen, hates, "ONHN", which I had never heard of, but has a potential base....but also mentioned, asked about "TOPP", which no one mentioned at its lows, but, as I pointed out herein at recent high, was only 'discovered" AFTER a big run-up, saying, "my 9-year-old son is starting to turn-off to Pokemon (smart kid, he's correct)....I don't like TOPP up here, and I think the craze is ending...." Agreed. A germain personal note: I have a 7-year-old psudeo-nephew, who couldn't wait to show me his Pokemon cards over Xmas, pointing out, instead of how attractive they were, or telling me the 'story' surrounding them, just started bragging what ceratin cards are 'worth'....a very spolied kid, who will, likely learn nothing about cycles, and his parents should teach him better/more....besides my presents to the family, I showed 'Yellow Submarine' movie as a super enjoyable activity, and the kid wouldn't even give it a chance, and had not even heard of the Beatles....is being age 7 an exucse for that ? do the kids actually transact the card business, or the kids ? I called the top in "sports cards prices", late 1990, when, during a show, two 8-year-old kids pulled out wads to overpay me for some of my cards, not even knowing who they represented....'nuff said....another top sign for Pokemon, regardless....
4) CNBC, over-mentioning, Fri., how 'Alcoa' stock has been rising (late, of course, as usual), said its 'short-interest' level is very large, all the way up ....I thought, what institution would short a stock like this, without a top pattern, without hedging in calls, and/or without a high level of 'sexiness' inherent anyway ? and, if those 'short positions' are hedged, shouldn't CNBC have reported that ? FYI, "AA" had tons of Insider Sales, since April, at $ 60., now over $ 80+....
e) more general items proving why one should ignore 95 %
of everything else out there: 1) this one really steams me, as it should you: L.A. Times, editorial section, Jan. 2 (!) printed article, "Come Jan. 1, chicken little will eat crow", was published AFTER the fact, and again illustrates one reason why I view the Media a certain way....anyone can say this AFTERwards, yes ? ....2) front-page, L.A. TImes, "Southern Calif.'s Pace of Development running on high", listed just as many "not' local cities, as 'hot', normal for a rolling "PSYCLE sm" top, into increasing supply, as predicted here first.... 3) CNBC, Fri., reported that, the number of "Govt. sector jobs", as a % of total U.S. employment, are now at the lowest level, since 1960....the first hint of such an item I have heard anywhere....what do you think this item means, economically ?
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options
existed....
19 more Gains for you: 1/2 pos. calls AAS (12- to 20+) for Q 275% Gain.... 1/2 pos. puts MERQ (103+ to 82) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts RATL (52- to 43+) for Q 85% G....puts CNXT (71+ to 55) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. puts PSIX (68+ to 55) for VQ 111% G....1/2 pos. puts OMKT (48 to 35+) for 111% G....bal. puts RNWK (160+ to 113) for 122% G....puts AIG (111- to 97+) for VQ 100% G....bal. puts LSCC (50 to 42+) for Q 60% G....1/2 pos. calls WMI. (14+ to 18-) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. stock SCIO (3+ to 6-) for 55% G....bal. puts MGG (52- to 45+) for 75% G.... 1/2 pos. calls ACL (16 to 19-) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. stock IOM (3 3/8 to 4 3/4) for VQ 33% G....stock GHV (2- to 3 3/8) for 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BS (6+ to 9+) for 80% G....puts MHP (61+ to 54) for VQ 80% G....bal. puts LGTO (76 to 60) for Q 125% G....puts NLCS (40- to 34+) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. calls DCN (26+ to 32) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PIR (5++ to 8-) for L.T. 66% G....
and/but, longs, WAB, UNA, BUR, BLC ?, CNC ?, and, puts, QGENF, SMTC, RCN, PHTN, EXDS, SII. ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....most all alately have been "Semis/Compu./Tech." stocks....but still been too many of them lately....usually quite rare (but not until lately)....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately ....it just happens that way at times....again, "cutting, for real small losses" when necessary, which never hurts us much....in fact, they can actually help your 'psyche' over time, by keeping 'larger losses' away, yes ? Remember, more than a few of these "?" sales, are likely to revalidate, both longs and puts, driving us crazy, regardless....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
CMX @ 4+, CPL @ 29+, 1/2 pos. CTX @ 22+, 1/2 pos. ELNK @ 40+, 1/2 pos. PBY @ 7++, 1/2 pos. QTRN @ 18-, 1/2 pos. RTHM @ 27+, 1/2 pos. TWA @ 3-,
"Repeats": ABX @ 17+, ACL @ 16, ADM @ 12-, AIN @ 14+, ASI. @ 6+, AZC @ 0.70+, BGO @ 9/16, BLC ?, BWL/A @ 7, CAN @ 12+, CAU @ 0.25, CHB @ 8-, CKR @ 5++, CNC ?, CRRS @ 1 3/4, DAY @ 0.06, DDC @ 18, DIR @ 13+, DROOY @ 1 9/16, ECO @ 1 5/16, EGR @ 15+, FAF @ 12-, FE @ 22+, GLB @ 12+, GRL @ 7++, GV @ 5/16, HLT @ 8++, JBM @ 3--, JBOH @ 7++, LDW @ 6+, LWN @ 7/16, MSN @ 9/16, NCI. @ 9++, NHI. @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OCN @ 5++, OH @ 2 11/16, OMX @ 5 3/8, RDL @ 3-, RPD @ 2 1/8, SAMC @ 5 5/8, SEI. @ 6+, SFI. @ , SKS @ 15+, SMU @ 5+, SVE @ 5++, TGI. @ 23+, TPS @ 0.93, TRL @ 6.06, TXM @ 2 7/16, URI. @ 16 1/8, USON @ 4++, VCR @ 1 11/16, WCC @ 6++, WLV @ 13+, WSO @ 10+, ZQK @ 14-, "the DJ. Trans. Avg. @ 2860"..."buy (only) low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, DSS, WH, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AFM @ 78+, BEAS @ 75, CCU @ 90, ESV @ 24+, MMM @ 102+, MUR @ 59, NTAP @ 89+, TDW @ 35-,
"Repeats": AIG @ 109+, HHH @ 181+, MCRL @ 58-, MSTR @ 235, PIOS @ 14+, SII. @ 50....
note how much smaller the Put-buys list has shrunk....
and/but, took, ISYS, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....this cleans up the list in section (7) more, for you....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", FPL, FJ, ACK, ASH, TSK, F., HCR, PBG, RTN, CBG, COA, ASH, BDX, S., YFM, VDC, ALI, EXX/A, CFS, AMI, DOR, TWR, BOR, HPT, PAG, PTA, NR, DLX, TSA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CLB, TNL, LEH, DS, LBRT, CHKP, PLCM, FLEX, NYF, SANM, VTSS, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
plenty more risers for you, read the list carefully, and check their chart and I.G. patterns out to learn from: AZC 0.87 up 0.17, SAA 1.25 up 0.30, GHV 3 1/2 up 7/8 (S), AAS 20 5/8 up 4 5/8 (sos), TWA 3 3/8 up 9/16, PIR 7.44 up 1.56, DPH 18 1/8 up 3 3/8, ACL 19 up 3 3/4, BS 9.33 up 0.93, MAH 12 up 1 3/8, USL 10 up 1 1/4, SYNX 4 3/8 up 1/2, USON 5 13/16 up 13/16, HOT 26 3/16 up 2 3/16, WDC 5 5/8 up 1/2, URI. 18 3/16 up 1 1/8, DCN 32 1/2 up 4, BDE 4 7/8 up 1/2, HRC 6 up 1/2, TRL 6 5/8 up 5/8, HUM 8 15/16 up 15/16, ABF 24 up 2 1/2, MUEI. 12 1/2 up 1, BDY 16 3/4 up 1 1/4, MCK 25 7/8 up 2 3/8, PBY 9 3/8 up 7/8, ELNK 44+ up 4+, CPL 30 7/8 up 1 3/4, EGR 16 7/16 up 1, EC 19 3/16 up 1,
still more: CTX 23 1/4 up 3/4, ASI. 6 3/4, LPX 15 3/8 (sos), SCIO 5 15/16, BGO 3/4, BMC 5 5/8, ED 35 7/8, FOE 22 11/16, JBM 3 3/8, MCH 21 9/16, AVL 9 5/8, BGP 16 7/8, SEI. 7 1/4, OMX 6 5/16, GLB 13 9/16, BBC 9 1/2, VXTK 4 1/2, NHI. 16 3/16, CCC 6.44, SOI. 17, CKR 6 11/16, TEN 11 3/16, WSO 11 7/8, DJ. Util. Avg. 297, DJ. Trans. Avg. 3000, higher, since last time here....I also see, HMA hit 18, AMSWA 12, LNCR 40, THC 28 (more Health-relateds), SFO 40+, NS 8+, KEG 6 1/2, MXTR 8+, gave you herein in their depr. base.... while, note, MLM, TCA, VCR, TEN, VDC, GHV, IGL, AAS, PIR, HUM, DFS, DPH, approached/hit their 200 DMA....and, KRY, is pulling back to its stage 2 support, 200 DMA, see them ?
note, how more laggards are renwing their predicted price rises....in at least two stages, right ?
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: MAG 8 1/8 up 7/8, MHX 16 5/8 up 1, NHR 7 3/4, 9 1/8, 8 1/8, TSN 17.06 up 1, DDC 18 5/8 up 3/4, CPL 30-, BDE 4 1/4, BAMM, MCK, PZB, HUM, CRRS 1 3/4, RPD, OH, IM, ABX, PDG, HM, ZQK, NCI., LWN, HEB, SMU, TXM, TOK, CHB, DIR, JBM, BLC, WLV, SKS, HLT, WMI, DDS, IRSN, MAT, PRD, TPS, UVA, FIX, ABF ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) BLC, ABF, NHI., JBOH, IMG, ECO, FIX, BLC, ZQK, RPD, ADM, GRL, VGZ, ABF, PMC, ACL, ALB, IM, FE, DIR, NHP, CHB, UVA, PDQ, CNC, TVX....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
got a whole bunch of nice drops for you: CNXT -6 (S), HHH -6, VYTL -4, MERQ -4 (S), HWP -3, AFM -3, MU -3, NLCS -2, JDSU -3, AIG -3 (S), MCRL -2 1/2, TDW -2 1/2, MMM -2, SANM -2 1/2, OMKT -2 (S), CCU -2 1/2, MCHP -2, PSIX -1 1/2, LGTO -1 1/2 (S), ESV -1 1/2, ELNT -1, RNWK -1 (S), RATL (S), XLNX -1, TGNT -1, MUR -1, MMPT, MAN, lower since last NL ....and, LU 51 wow, WSM 34+, ANN 23, lower still, gave you herein near highs.... also, note, how, PG, AIG, bounced off their 200 DMA support, as taught you....and, PSIX, fell to its 50 DMA....and, RNWK, MHP, NLCS, MCHP, ANCR, approached/hit their 200 DMA....
note, how many stocks, like, MERQ, MCHP, AIG, semis/chips, etc., have already fallen initially, down to their initial support levels, and/or their breakout/support going back just to last Oct./Nov., as suggested....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (IMG, HUM, BBC, etc., more have bounced, up already)
Prec. Metals (CAU, HM, ABX, PDG, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
emerging groups ?: "Cap. Goods/Mfrs.", "Athletics/Apparel", "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, and, "Funeral" stocks down the road....
and, these REIT's, most also with real big potential Dividends ? (NHR, GLB,
NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, LTC, PDQ, CEI., GTA, ARI., JDN, KRC, ESA, AER, ALF, CBG, PAG, etc.)
"Transportation" (GT, LUV, MAG, WAB, DPH, DAL, PBY)
Retails (SKS, DDS, KM, PIR, S., DFS, CNS, GAP, MAY, some may need more work, technically, but likely to bottom)
newish: Foods (WH, CKR, WEN, EGR, etc.)
plus, Computer Memory, R.E.-and, Mtg.-relateds, some depressed Internets,
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, PBY, CPL, FPL, to, SMU, CRRS, RDRT, LAF, TXM, HLT, ED, MHR, EC, STS, DROOY, WDC, TVX, FOE, LWN, AIN, LMM, MAT, JOB, PIR, BWL/A, RDL, PMC, SFI., TRL, HIV, MSN, BMC, CCC, SAMC, XCL, OCN, to,
also, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, EGGS, HA, FMO, LEA, MO, UH, OMI, PXD, NOW, ATHM, IBC, AEN, BWA, to, TWA, CHKE, GT, PBG, BNC, CMX, FUN, FTR, UCI, SVE, PTA, RTHM, ELNK, MSPG, BOR, CBG, VDC, VX, CAN, AVL, TSK, LEN, WAC, ZQK, HAZ, TSA, ACK, ASH, NCI, SHW, STK, TSA, TWR, WSO, DLX, BSX, FAF, URI, AVS, RT, FLE, AMI, ALR, TMD, NCS, LTV, NR, DFS, LYO, BDE, DOR, HLT, AW, GSR, WCC, BAMM, CTX, KRC, MIR, VFC, FHS, JBM, GLG, MAH, ADM, IM, GPT, BTR, WAC, JWN, TSP, WMI., TPN, MPO, MKC, NHR, CMX, SQM, BEV, MUEI, AIN, (and, maybe soon also, HRP, HCN, KPA, HPT), as more potential REIT "EVB's", and may base/bottom ahead....and, we still watch the "Agri./Fert." and "beverages" stocks for pullbacks, and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and, note a few depressed Internet issues (!).... and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
also note, how many of the "insider Buys" list I gave you, are bouncing...did you LOOK at any of their charts ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
realize, again, that some of these are already down a bit....hence, a shrinking list....
* add, ARMHY, TQNT, ERICY, NOK, CCU, ESV, GLW, WFT, INFA, DSPG, CHKP, NYF, DIGL, to, BCE, WMT, ANSR, ELNT, MCLD, MAN, MU, MMM, MUR, CLB, HC, HHH, SII, MDY, YHOO, AIG, IMN, SLR, VSH, LSI, AMKR, BMCS, ANAD, TDW, LCOS, MCRL, MMPT, SANM, SCNT, AFM, MHP, NWS, STM, CUBE, MSTR, RATL, VNWK, MU, HWP, MGM, CSGS, TSCC, AFCI., NT, MERQ, RDC, TFSM, ALLR, PIOS, JNPR, AEIS, MSTR, from recent past NL's,
and, as I gave you recently, are these topping soon ?: BRCM, ADAP, ERICY, DISH, CLRS, BEAS, CSCO, INFY, BEAS, CTSH, CTXS, CMGI, CPWM, PRGS, ATML, SUNW, VOX, SFE, AAPL, FDRY, FCST, CAMP, SEBL, ORTL, NTAP ???
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service,
Wines/Liquors/beverages, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related,
Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing,
and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above
their patterns highs....
NEW: given all occuring recently, none specially today....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....