1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) while some given-techs have risen nicely 4 U, others are pulling back, and must strengthen anew soon, and/or become buys again after pb's to basing-lows, case-by-case....but, if I had to bet, I'd still bet on an upside resolution, as many techs have had some volume-thrust -days, and/or approach their still-falling 200 DMA, dig ? you know what that usually means.... 2) and, seeing the Casino stocks fall, hmmmm, who was the first/only to suggest their puttability herein a few times already and again recently "gaming/video games" ? you're welcome, some still exploitable.... 3) and while I gave it out herein perfectly from lows, and missed it in this NL, "EP" starting to look like a pot. upside bo, and I don't buy for bo's, much, preferring to get in base only, as U know....but bears watching, technical signs building in it, and other Utils. and Energy super-cheapies I gave out have all broken out, so this cb next ?
4) kudos once to MER, who came out bullish on the 'drug store' I.G., Thu., as U know, I have been v.v.g. with them over the years, recently giving a few out 4 U at recent lows, you're welcome.... 5) also, note the RTH, retail index, rising, exactly as I was, as usual, the first/only to predict from recent lows 4 U herein, yes ? you're welcome....as I said, our economy, or parts of it, bottomed already, as have I.R.'s, etc. - so, whil 'the 95 %' wait and wait and stay confused, YOU have been taking my advice and acting to take advantage of the shift, yes ? if not, why not ? ....6) also note rise among Steel stocks, only I was first to predict 4 U herein from lows, although some had fobd's first, aok....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt.,
etc.:
1) ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) ....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) uh oh ? ChangeWave and L. Navallier (dgms) just both came out with "explosive rally ahead !", missives....you know what that means....also, David Nichols (21st century investor- not to be confused with Erlanger), said, "War Inevitable....here are 4 defense stocks set to double !" - get it ? this guy cannot be correct, nor the others ? we shall see....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
1 more Longs, and,
4 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts carefully, to learn patterns
note, Gains, on both, longside and putside, neat, huh ?
1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. VECO (11+ to 16-) for VVVQ 70% Gain....bal. calls FSS (16 to 20+) for Q 111% G....all puts CHTT (22 to 18-) for Q 75% G....1/2 rem. pos. stock RAD (2- to 3+) for l.t. 55% G....bal. puts PFGC (38- to 32-) for 66% G...1/2 pos. puts OLOG (23 to 21-) for VQ 40% G....bal. puts PGC (37 to 30) for Q 75% G....1/2 pos. puts APA (60 to 55) for Q 40% G....1/2 pos. puts CTSH (74- to 62+) for 75% G ....bal. puts CRL for big % G....and 1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PDLI (9+ to 7+ to 9+) for l.t. B.E.
as before, one could (have been) sell(ing) ALL puts Gainers, instead of
1/2-pos(itions)....and, as you have learned, the recent little-damage QSL's on
the longside, are part of the good process and concept, and never affect our
OTHER long buys here, right ?
and/but, longs, AVL, PCH ?, and, puts, AME ?, SAFC fo ?!, LFG fo ?, UOPX fobo....for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 pos. MAY @ 22+, DHI. @ 17.2-, RDA @ 14 3/4, SYNP @ 3 3/4, 1/3 pos. TR @ 29+, 1/2 pos. LTD @ 13+, 1/3 pos. NAFCE @ 7+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): 1/3 pos. GTW @ 2 7/8, 1/3 pos. PDLI. @ 7 1/2, 1/3 pos. AGR.A @ 1.20+, 1/2 pos. BC @ 19+, SVU @ 15+, 1/3 pos. AHO @ 12-, 1/2 pos. SNS @ 10+, 1/3 pos. UAG @ 12-, 1/2 pos. EL @ 26-, 1/3 pos. NSC @ 19+, MWY @ 4-, EMBX @ 11-, 1/3 pos. FLWS @ 5 3/4, 1/4 pos. LTD @ 13+, 1/3 pos. SNE @ 41, 1/3 pos. S. @ 23+, CMC @ 16-, 1/3 pos. CVS @ 23++, 1/2 pos. ARM @ 15+, 1/2 pos. OPTV @ 1.00+, 1/3 pos. MC @ 9+, 1/3 pos. NHP no, 1/3 pos. CNA @ 23++, 1/2 pos. HUM @ 10-, 1/3 pos. AAPL @ 14-, 1/3 pos. ENZN @ 16+, MNC @ 15+, 1/2 pos. CMK @ 8-, 1/2 pos. KO no ?, 1/4 pos. DG @ fobd ?, HPC @ 8 5/8, DDS, 1/3 pos. AMRI @ 14+, 1/3 pos. BSET @ 13+, 1/2 pos. REVU @ 5-, 1/3 pos. BVC @ 5.50+ eh, 1/4 pos. USU @ 6 eh, GE's res's 10 % of 4/03 at $ 86., $ 78, DIS's res's 11.5 % exp. 3/03 at $ 69, GT @ 6 5/8 ?, 1/2 pos. MMTRS @ 25+ (ck. pot. big div.), DPH @ 7 3/4, MCD @ 15+ fobd, EMBX @ 11...."buy (only) low", right ?,
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
and, of course, with so many quick pops, best to wait for pb's in those in
sec. (4) top, and buy the laggards, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....
*** Important: took, LPNT, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
CFBX @ 28-, 1/2 pos. AGL @ 24, 1/3 pos. MAC @ 31, 1/3 pos. WDFC @ 30, EXPD @ , BER ?, 1/3 pos. ADP @ 44-, 1/3 pos. JBHT @ 30, DVA @ 26-, 1/3 pos. MBRS @ 19+, AVY @ 65-, IMN @ 42+, RF @ 35, 1/2 pos. WON @ 39+, 1/3 pos. SMG @ 49+....
"Repeats":
1/2 pos. CFBX @ 27++, 1/2 pos. CHTT @ 45-, 1/3 pos. OLOG @ 23, ADP @ 43, 1/3 pos. KCP @ 25++, TJX @ 21, 1/2 pos. CPG @ 35-, PETC @ 25+ fo ?, GTY @ 20, 1/3 pos. DL @ 22, CRL @ 40, APOL @ 45+, LFG @ 27-, PFG @ 30+, SAFC @ 36 fo ?, MHP @ 65, HR @ 32, LIZ @ 32, BAC @ 72,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, SMG, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", MIMS, IMMU, DGIN, JP, the RTH, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CAJ, SIAL, ENR, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the patterns yet again:
VECO 15.99 up 4.25, nice, FLWS 6.84 up 1.23, X. 15.24 up 2.43, LTD 14.30 up 1.00, DDS 16.80 up 1.31, NAFCE 7.91 up 0.72, S. 28.00 up 1.56, ENZN 17.93 up 1.06, CI. 44.75 up 3.65, MAY 25.30 up 1, SYNP 4.46, DRRA 10.79 sos, SNS 10.31, DUK 21.57, BVC 5.94 up 0.16, DHI. 19.15, SNE 43.24 up 1.66, UAG 13.36, NTBK 10.60, SKYWE 14.16, AHO 14.19, LTR 47.49, ASO 20.52, SAH 16.50, HUM 10.68, ARM 17.66, CMK 8.43, CNA 27.11, AMRI. 16.13 up , higher since last NL here....
and, these are either pulling
back, or bouncing after pb's, stick around:
obviously, getting plenty of v.s.t. pb's, after recent gains/pops, mostly techs:
AGR.A 1.74 up 0.50, BRCD 5.81 up sos ?, CHRT 4.75 sos ?, REVU 5.41 up 0.36, SYNP 3.75 pb, bopb, MWY 4.06 pb, bopb, 4.36, CB 55.70, 57., OPTV pb, bopb, CVS 24.80, 25.50, BSET 13.59 pb, bopb, REVU 5.27 up, SGEN 3.31 up, EL 26.30 pb, bopb, MC 9.77, 10.21, USU 6.12, 6.40, SVU 16.31 pb, CMC, GTW 2.88 pb, bopb, 3.02, LTD 13.83 pb, UAG 13.44 up, MCD 17.17 up ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
PCH 23.66 bd ?, KFY, CEGE 10.66 dn, bopb, RAD, UDI, KO fobd ?, DRRA, HD res's REX.U, AAPL, TXI, OEH, CK 6.40 up, ABGX stbd ? ....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
CHTT -3 (S), CTSH -4 1/2, NVR -2 1/2, BRC -1 1/2, COCO -1 1/2, AZN -1 1/2, WON -1, GTY -7/8, IDXC -1 1/8, CRL, RF, APA -1 1/2, JBHT, EXPD -1, crude oil 31. dn 1, down/further since last time here....while, PXD, CHTT, APA, approach their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
note, as mentioned in sec. (2) above, how many puttables popped
back up to potential resistance levels - and some are on verge of breaking out/up, and some had minor breakouts, poss. fobo's ?, so you're call from here in those, as usual (pun intended):
APOL -1 1/2, +1, BBBY, APA +2, BAC, BER, BG sow, HR fo, MMM -1 1/2, SAFC bo ?, DE fo ?, PXD, PFG +1 1/2, FCN -1 1/2, +1, KCP -1 1/2, +2 1/2 fo ? (B) ?, EXPD +3/4, PCLE +1, AME bo ? (S) ?, RGIS +3/4 bo ?, WEC, ROAD -1 3/8, DL, AZN, TJX, BLC, CTSH +2, BLUD -3/4, WON +1, OLOG, GCI, MNTR, LFG up, RF -1....this ends the 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depr.
techs, telecoms, most/all computer-stuff, biotechs, drugs, cap. goods,
machy/equip., some blue chips, alt.-energy-relateds, internets, etc. No need to
give specific IG's here....except for sec. (2) part (1) above comments, like,
cap. goods/equip./trans. stocks as recent pot. db's, etc.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
added a BUNCH, dig ?:
ARNA, HOFF, IBC, RSH, PDQ, SFN, RRA, CVX, HMC, UMC, to, MOT, TGT, TOY ?, HAS ?, WMB, AKS, CDT, HUG, IDE, SFN, TWK, AVL, AVN, ARTC, CRGN, BUCA, IMCO ?, NITE, NSIT, LTRE, RTRSY, TSAIE, TTIL, PMACA ?, HGSI. ?, EMBX, ECTX, to,
SUNW, AGR.A, CVS, APD ?, EP, BC, EC, CB ? eh, LTD, LEA fobd, TSG ?, TXN opb, THC opb, S., ADX, RDA, SNS, CMC, UTR, TR, PNC ?, ADIC opbo, ADRX, DCLK opb, ACSA ?, FLWS, AKZOY opb, CMVT obpbo, CDCY ?, BRKS, BOBJ obpbo, PRGX, NEOL opbo, NTRS, MOLX ?, LTBG ?, TRLY opbo, TLRK opbo, SMTC opbo, TIVO opbo ?, TZIX ?, TNOX opbo, CCRN opbo,
to, EMIS, OPTV, TTIL, ABGX opb, CHRS, ELNK opb, IBIS ?, FWRD ?, GLGC ?, IMMU opbo, MCSI, IDTI, NAFCE, QLTI, MCDTA, RFMD opbo, TSAIE ?, TSN opbo, LNT opbo, CNP, CKR, GY opbo, HMN, MXT, PDLI, PLL ?, WIN, MWY, CVX, to, AAPL eh, ASO, EMN, ET, HUM, MCK, SFA, SVU, EP dbs ?, ARM, GW, MC, FCH ?, IVGN ny, SCMM ?, SONE opbo, QSFT opbo, CHKP opbo, CKR, ELNK opb, AHO, DSPG opbo, EMBT opbo, NYFX opbo, APWR opbo, LTD opbo, SNE, CVG opbo, to, ABX, EL ?, OMM, RTN, MAY, ARM, UAG, UFI, GSIC no ?, IPXL, SKYWE, STEL, COMS obpbo, CLTK eh ?, MNC, ABG, CNA opbo, MHX no ?, SNH div. ?, FRNT, AHMH, MIMS opbo, SYNP, VANS, VECO opbo, AMRI, GBCB ?, BSET, ARNA opbo, AKSY opb, EFDS, SEAC, BFT, CKR, TOL, NLS opbo, PHI, DEG opbo, DPL, SAH, HRC, CHB opbo, CDT opbo, KO no ?, REVU, CMK opbo, SGEN, GT fobd, DUK opb, AFC opb, HPC opb, PPCO, BEV obpbo, AMX opbo, ACF opbo, MTF nah, CNH opbo, BBY obpbo, CKP, ACRI, ENZN, NTRT, CBR, RAD,
all, as EVB's, or double-bottoms, or bases....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
add, NHP no, RFS ?, KE ?, to, PGH, SNH, MMTRS eh, HQH, CMK opb, REX.W (Intel 14 % res's, above), JPM 13 % res's's exp. 9/30/03 GE res's, DIS 14 % res's, BA 11 % res's '03, C. 13 % res's, BBY 18.5 % res's, EOP, also see sec. 3) above ! and, BMY res's, and, on bigger pb's, res's on TGT, HON, we shall see....but all only near recent lows....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note, removed still
more, some not listed in sec. (3) above, get it ? what does this tell
you about the future, longside-wise ? again, it helped show us a s.t.
bottom, yes ?
added, COCO, IDXC, AMC, VAR no ?, SIB, FCF, EOG, MAC, GTY, SYK, BER, PCLE, ODSY ?, to, ROST ?, HYDK ?, CDVA, EXPD, EXPE, HOTT eh, WDFC, JBHT, BLUD, INTU, AVY, IMN, NYT, RF, WON, KSS ?, SSP, FCN, ACV, LXK dt ?, ADP, AZN, KCP ?, CTSH, CFBX, REPB, ROAD, KSWS ?, EXPE, TJX, RBK, UN ?, CCR, MMM, MHP, AMLN, HCP, RGIS no ?, APOL, GTY, SKT ?, PETC, MBG ?, MBRS, ETR ?, HP, MAC, GPN, CAJ, AME no ?, RCI, BAC, BBBY, DL, MKL ?, DF eh, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: Precious Metals ?, Transp. Svcs., Leisure/Movies, Fert., cosmetics, newspapers, dairy ?, to, compu. mfgs., comp. svcs, gems, Schools, Video Games, some Media,
added, to, REIT's/RE-homes-bldg.-orienteds, some Banks/S & L, Financials, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....but, now, maybe not Regional Banks nor Newspapers ? this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES