1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) well, as we correct (while the 95 % are bullish, dig ?), note went short-put the Naz COMPX index - am I alone as usual in this also ? ....2) TYX yield back up from 4.8 % to 4.9 % vqa, and the TNX chart still shows a rising-yield config.... 3) also noting the DJUA may be another fobo, 335, 338, 328, hmmmm....we jmi.... 4) and, so far, exactly as only i predicted here last NL, GOOG, 203, 193, was a fobo ?, R U learning ?, if not, Y not ? ....5) noting only-predicted-by-me-herein recent drop from 450+ to 407+ in cash Gold, still looks like perhaps down towards 418 anyway ?, btw, it's recent low was around 402 in Sept. 2004, hmmmm....
6) conversly the recent rise-only-preeicted-by-me-herein rise in Dollar DXY, looks higher perhaps towards its 84-85 downtrend line ?, we shall see....you're welcome.... 7) anyone else notice pop in Crude to $ 45.75 ?, didn't think so, get it ?, stage 5-6 action, PSYCLE-wise, dig ? ....8) am i the only one noticing that almost every single stock sent to me Unsolicited, by the myriad mediocre-but-well-financed Nl's, e-mails, direct mail come-ons, long and short, have broken DOWN in recent weeks --- every single one of them !, rendering still more other Nl's impotent yet again....while the 95 % cont. to receive their mostly-crap....yikes....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) with all the late-too-low worry about the DXY 'hurting america', yadda, yadda, seems few have noticed markedly RISING orders for USA-company-produces "machenriy' of all kinds, for a few months already, ahead of the DXY bottom which I was among the first few to have predicted....this HELPS those mfg. co's, yes ?, and they are l.t., US, big co's involved, dig ?, employing a ton of people HERE in the USA....just proving again, the Finl. Media misses 95 % of the important stuff, and '95 % of all people' fail to grasp even bullish items, yes ?, next.... 2) and, again, exactly how terrible can things really be at FNM, if they just easily raised $ 450mm ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) recall my recent mention about a one-time huge tax-windfall Your Govt. enacted recently ?, well, guess what Ind. Grp. will take biggest advantage ? yup, the big DRUG companies....an undeserved big gift to them all, gee, such a wonderful gesture to those who, while occasionally ceratinly heloung our health, still, abuse people often, ay ?, so at least we know nothing changes much with lobbyists, govt., big biz, and health care (sic)....oy....
2) and, Dr. Mecola, one of the few GOOD NL's aboput health, read studies showing that NIH scientists have accepted TONS of $ from - you guessed it - big drug companies....next.... 3) and, exactly as i said, turns out, counter to the over-fear crap from the doomers, that USA's EXPORTS, ROSER +13.5 % in 2003, hah...how come we read thet nowhere ?, we only hear about the I-say-temporary due-to-energy rise also in Imports in 2003....TRA's NL listed a bunch of imp. I.G.'s where the USA exported a,ot more than imported, dig ?, so a rare judo to him....aero/def, chem, grains, metals/ores, biotech & scientific stuff, etc.
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) this one is hilarious, given their perma-doom-ness, as recent TDR wrote, "people worldwide need dollars desparately"....hmmm, gee, ya think ?, anyway, maybe thats one reason why the DXY may have bottomed recently, as the 95 % got, and remain, beariush, from its lows, yadda, yadda....and, why China/India/Japan are NOT likely to dump their dollar holdings, as only I predicted, against the doomers, etc., yes ? ...what an idiotic tome that TDR NL has been at times, ay ?, next....and then, amazingly, their recent come-on titled, "the coming collapse of the Dollar"....dgms....
2) and, then, TDR's Richebaker, and Doug (dgms) Casey, say, "we are sure that there will be no chance whatsoever that people will EVER be able to sell stocks, their homes, or bonds at anywhere near recent highs at heir present inflated prices in the future"....wow....wanna fade that statement ?....3) then, unbelieveably, TDR, 1/5 Wed., tried to 'explain' the pop in the DXY which, again, they failed to predict, losing $$$ for their people again, by saying - get this - "well, of course the Dollar popped, US investors have been buying $ 2 B. a day in bonds"....uh, excuse me ?, havent they also been doing that while the DXY FELL< also ?, what an idiot....continuing their illogic, vs. my logic....you're wlecome....
4) and, finally, TDR printed some letters from their subscribers, complaining about the obvious and huge conflicting and not-publicized conflicts of ionterest among all AGORA cp. NL's and ads, recommending products, etc., sometimes only becvause its what their writers are saying, etc. - well, gee, thats how your Media in the USA has BEEN operating in its nastiness, for decades, right ?, wake up, guy....things will get worse and worse on many levels, unless the 95 % change their behaviors....not likely....oh, and, TDR had the gaul to suggest that 'they have 'the ultimate truth'....yikes....can U say, "hubris before the fall" coming ?
5) I wish they gave their l.t. past T.R., but the AIA NL, says current rally is within bear mkt. which started in y2k, unfortunately, though, linking future weakness in stks, to economic weakness, which I also see, as U know, anyway.... 6) and semi-rare kudo to EWT, which did aat leats also call the DXY bottom, as I did herein....but, also, as usual, Elliott guys remain super-bearish on the USA, economy, and stks.... 7) and, once again, TDR's NL has been getting queries from subscribers, asking how they can be both, bullish and bearish on the seemingly-similar-same things simultaneously....and I would reply, dgms.... 8) and shame on TobinS/ChnageW, whose new BS come-on title, "is a new US recession rearing its ugly head', goes opposite his perma-bullishness, yes ?, next....
9) and this one is potentially special: Sjuggerud's recent tome cited, supposedly, 55 of 56 econbomists predict I.R.'s will rise in 2005, of course.... he then fades them, citing resons why he would, in PSYCLE nuance, go opposite their so-often-wrong-it-defies-illogic l.t. past T.R., dig ?, so would I, having predicted most every interim I.R. move for decades now....remember, as i have said herein many times, many I.R.'s remain in their v.l.t. downtrend, even tho in a depr. base, since Fall 2002 anyway....and that, since 1982, in a new study they evidently did, the 'experts' have been wrong over 2/3 of the time, as I have been teaching U for decades....next.... 10) and/but Doug dgms Casey just came out with the most ridiculous and useless sensationalizing prediction he has every made, in his not-so-good l.t. past T.R., anyway, as U know: $ 5,000 oz. gold....as with Glen Neely's "the DJIA can fall to near zero, but could also rise to 100,000" crapola, it never ceases to make me ill....on the other hand, this guarantees none of their big predictions will ever occur, dig ?, next....
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) well, the SEC continues their dumness, creating new BS laws hoping to 'stop supposed short-selling abuses', which is, of course, BS, and mostly against the little people, as usual....and, as usual, their new policy will help nothing....but, maybe, by increasing the difficulty and cost and availability of borrowing shortable shares, will confirm my cautious stance, on stocks, as a kind of bearish item, PSYCLE-wise, dig ?, we shall see....next.... 2) and, certainly not 2 B even renmotely controversial, nor disrespectful, but,we see my PSYCLE at work again with unfortunate Tsunami aid and coverage Media, certainly terrible, but, gosh, those people still not as advanced as others, they know stroms are gonna occur yet cont, 2 live there, and, why arent USA people/companies so emoptional in aiding/curing cancer, cigarettes, drinking, and auto accidents, which kill well over 750 K people, EVERY YEAR just in the USA alone?, get it ? br>
3) again, am hearing too much about "Costa Rica RE'', lately, even from my friends-who-are-ralrely-correct timing-wise, dig ? and, in the Media, get it ? , as usual, I would simply ask, 'where the hell are these/those people at BOTTOMS' ?, dgms, R U learning the/my pattern ?, if not, Y not ? ....4) and finally read a major source citing "RE in Europe has been fal;ling for months now, and they arremian in denial" - hmmmm, sound familiar ?, hey, U heard it here 1st, spring 2004 r.e. top, from me 1st....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
2 more Longs, neat....
and,
2 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
1/2 pos. puts GLD (440+ to 410+) for Q % Gain....all stock SINX (0.02- to 0.08-) for l.t. % G....bal. stk. CRAY (3.1 to 4.7), CY (8- to 11++), ARRS (4+ to 7+), BMRN (3+ to 6+), for Q % G....bal. calls WM (38 to 41+) eh....1/2 pos. calls DXY (80+ to 83++) for VVVQ % G....1/2 pos. puts DJTA (3800+ to 3600+) for VVVVQ % G....
and/but, longs, AAI. never bt., CHINA, JDSU bd ?, ISIL, bal. RPMM bd ?, fo ?, and, puts, GOOG fobo ? dnspy, BPFH bo ?, for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 JBLU @ 20++ and 12 % recons again, 1/3 ACCL opb, 1/3 KKD @ 9 3/8 firm ?,
1/3 JDSU @ 2.8+ ? bd ?, 1/3 SPRT @ 5.1, 1/4 CLTK again @ 0.80-, 1/4 BLLD @ 1.50 wcs, 1/3 ETLT @ 0.40+ spec,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): ISSI. bd ?, ny , STTS fobd, SEHO @ 0.14 fobd, RPMM bd ?, 1/4 SINX @ 0.02- super spec, ESST 6.20 ?, ....
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, AAI, CPWR mtln, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
added, puts on DAL @ 7+++, COMPX @ 2150+, puts on some Bonds, 10-yr.March, @ 113- (TYH5), maybe even the major stk. indexes, to,
1/4 GOOG fobo ? @ 200+, BPFH bo, no ?, EVG @ 41+,
"Repeats":
copper again around 1.47+, ACAT @ 27 again, BKMU @ 12+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", ALTH, WSTF, AINV, HLM., as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
several nice pops among given-from-lows techs:
SINX 0.017, 0.093 wow (S), BLLD 2.07 up 0.22, DXY 83.90 up 1.96 nice, hah, CNN 6.57 bo ?, sos, JBLU 21.15, up/further since last NL here....
and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:
AGR.B 1.40 up, msf, STTS 5.63 bopb, SPRT 5.70 pb, 6.66 up, ETLT 0.41 pb, bopb, 0.46, LSCC 4.83 pb, ESST 6.19 (B) non, ms, CLTK 0.91 pb, 1.16, 1.01, DXY 82++ pb....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
PLNR 9.82 dn, ms, SEBL 9.15 dn sos, SEHO msa, PSY soso, BCGI. sos, BEAS soso, ELY msa, PMCS 9.55 stbd, L. fobo ?, CNN sos, msf, RPMM ?, DSS, SPRT 5.99, 6.62 up, SVNT 2.50 pb, msa, ISIL 14.90 (S) ? bd, JDSU 2.88 bd (S) ?, dbs ?, ISSI. 7.03 non (B)....and, once again, every rallied stocl must bo further, and that is not too likely, s.tr. anyway, as I recently warned....and, EVC 7.58 dn....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
TRAN. 3633 dn 141, COMPX 2182, 2073, DAL 7.88 (P), 6.31, GLD 4170, hah, UCBH -2 1/2, down/lower since last time here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
GOOG 203 fobo, 187, 198, 193, EVG, UCBH (fo)bo, (B) -1, BKMU dn, fobo, BPFH -1 1/4 fobo, Copper, posas, Crude, ACAT -1 1/4, are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when they should be falling more....DJTA 3800, 3628, eh....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
*** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depessed....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, KKD, ETLT, JBLU bd, no, ISSI. bd ?, to, CGFW opbo, SINX fobd, TXEO another super spec. ?, BLLD ?, BLDP db ?, to, PMCS opb, PCLE tln, CY obpbo, CMOS tln, ESST bd ?, ESPD obpbo, STTS, SKIL ?, SWY fobd ?, SNPS obpbo, OATS evb, SGI. obpbo, PKS ltp ?, SUNW tln, to, SEHO ?, MCDT opbo, DCLK tln, RPMM ? fobd ?, TSM tln, NYB ?, SONSE, SYNO ?, LSCC opb, ISIS ovbpbo, NITE obpbo, SANM obpbo, TQNT opbo, XOMA tln, CLTK, ADCT ovbpbo....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, WIW, to, DCS ?, ZF obpbo, EVC obpbo, to, CNN obpbo,
and, watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both are already around 11+ and 13++ now, so too high ?, yielding 15 % each here anyway ?, eh, tln ?,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:
note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....
added, DAL ?, to, GLD fobo, GOOG oso, GCD ?, UCBH, ACAT, EVG, BKMU bo ?....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES