1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Second, Right now, we are in somewhat "no man's land"....I need to see more pullbacks-that-hold-at-support among depresseds to buy more of them into, and/or more rises-that-fail-near-recent-highs, to buy more puts into, dig ? Take the time to VIEW recently 'sold' ideas, to "know" the patterns for your future....I trust you bought some tax-selling bouncers, low, in December, and a couple of Puts, then, and recently, and very recently, raised some cash by lightening up in some winners....
Third, Given the S.T. volatility among Techs, and Internets, we are still allowing more "leeway" in timing/pricing our trades on them, but seems I did catch "a S.T. top" among several in that area....see sections 3 and 5 below for details ....I'd like to see the coming weekend's charts, before going crazy there, either way....But you DID have the opportunity to catch them as Puts, plus the Health, Utility, Financial, Consumer puttables you probably ignored, that I nailed.... after rallies/pops, I expect another spate of decent Puttables to work out....We are also beginning to approach historically weaker time periods, for extended stocks, and, after pullbacks, expecting another run at some depresseds for further tax-selling bounces....Last, the "T-bond" held at support, so I am no longer as bearish on it....Not bullish, just have no special opinion any more, since it fulfilled what I predicted.....relatedly, many Utilities have already declined 1/2-way towards my expected targets, and/or their 200 DMA's....
Do note the plethora of "new issues" recently added in sec. 3, 6, and 7, below, just representing "what I see occuring", as more and more stocks are bottoming/ topping, in different groups....more Puts all of a sudden....By the time you read this, Thu. 14th, with last Friday's "straight-up parabolic" action, this is probably the top area in Internets, Mon./Tue....as I teach in my booklets, one key to success, is NOT letting "past" QSL's, affect your next decisions, when/if those same stocks seem to set up again properly....heck, "Putting" the Internets below, and/or our extended Consumers, Utilities, Financials, Healths, Techs, was actually LESS risky, than you thought. Remember, as I told you many times here, the "one" area my "PSYCLE sm" cannot be as great during/predicting, are the ends of parabolic late stage 3 rises, which tend to "overshoot", as taught....they WILL come back to earth, hurting thousands of people in the process, as usual.
An important long-side note: as taught when I, again, chronicled "the 7 sequential stages" in sec. (8), in several sequential NL's, weeks ago, and in my Booklets, the initial upside price expectation/targets, for, example, the Oil Svc. stocks, is, generally, that stock's "bounce high" in late Oct./early Nov., and/or, when/if applicable, their still-falling, 200 DMA, yes ? When/if they get up there, we re-evaluate(d) their chart patterns, at that time...like, ATW, WFT, RON, PDE, etc....Ditto, the Steels, which hit their 200 DMA's and were sold for more nice S.T. gains for you, LTV, BS....and stocks like, TKOCF, ACLY, WND, TEN, MLHR, ZITL, SFSK, MMG, PCTL, PCMS, AMLN, OMPT, AXC, CMO, WJ, FTL, MS, which reached their resistance levels....
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry GROUP (Rotation) Notes:
note more, clear, split, Rotation occuring, among different I.G.'s, independent
of each other: 1) did I predict "the" best top among Internets in a long time, as "after the first hour or two, Mon. or Tues. 12th" ? ....2) but many Oil Service may have had a fakeout breakout of their own, so taking more Gains, above....they must, all still break above this past week's highs, or else....3) as predicted, cash Silver itself broke out further....as did Crude Oil contract ? then, both, are just pulling back, and may become buys again later, at lower prices again, vs. any pot. new lows....but the "Gold" contract itself still does not look ready yet ....I have correctly remained no buy, on cash Gold, yet....4) the Media is just beginning to notice the drops already predicted here, in our Drug stocks...they must still break below this week's lows to maintain integrity of their patterns ....5) Gold futures down big last 3 days....6) note drops among our Financial/Bank /Insur. stocks....6) and, of course, Utilities continue to fall, as predicted....
b) 1) as another impending top sign, by end of Monday, 11th, YHOO's market value, was more than that of MOT, TXN, AXP, ERICY, or MS/DW.....DLJ is having an Internet Conference this Wed, Thu, Fri, so our 1/11 call, should mark the top.... YHOO announces 2/1 split, and eps which exceed estimates, yet stock tops and falls ? ....2) the McLellan summation index shows a potentially negative divergence, a lower-top in A/D figures, with higher-high on indexes....Thurday's weakness, protends further negative breadth....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) cnbc, Tue. 12th, 9 am, Bob PIsani. actually said (quote) "AOL is building a real nice base around $ 145. or so...." HUH ??? ....2) a reporter on KHWY tv, Wed., 10:15, actually said, "there's a strong, causal relationship between advertising, and that company's stock price." Unbelievable, huh....Then he mentioned Nike and Apple, when, in fact, both stocks' tops, and bottoms, have been accompanied by the same amount of 'advertising'....This is another in a long line of "fundamental things" which are of no "D.A.F.P.P.V." (re-read my "Scenarios" booklet)....3) KWHY tv, Wed. 13th, 11;20 am, Joe Battaglia, he of the broken-clock-always-been-bullish -on-gold-the-last-several-years club, said, "our economy is very closely tied to that of Brazil's." Hmmmm, but not Japan's, Britain's, China's, Canada's, Mexico's, right ? Amazing....Then, for the umpteenth time in the last several years, he called for buying more gold, as "protection"....Huh ? I didn't know anyone who listened to guys like this the last several years, had any more money left....Lesson: never listen to anyone who does not cover ALL industry groups and markets, and/or has been wrong, for years, with their "end of the world scenarios", and/or who has never changed their one , incorrect message....except as occasional contrary indicators at times.... 4) cnbc, Thu. 14th, 7:20 am, Larry Bauman (again) reporting on the "chip" sector (late, of course....when these stocks were low, and I was recommending them herein, you didn't hear anything about them, or, just negative things, from CNBC guys, dig ?), mentioned one stock I gave you herein near its low, IRF, saying, "while their earnings have not been very strong, their stock has tripled from their lows...." Again, the pattern never changes.... 5) but I do give kudos to CNBC, Thu., 7:30 am, for showing a historical chart of the "S & P telephone, radio, and phonograph" index, from 1928 to 1935, and, how it had a long base, then a huge, parabolic rise (and a normal, subsequent huge fall after its highs in the late 1920's), similar to how the Internet stocks look now, etc. In other words, the normal staged pattern, which "PSYCLE sm" traders have long been aware of, for 20 years now....
d) more late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) Tue. 12th, 11:40, Mark Greenberg, Avatar Assoc., actually said (quote) "you will never have an opportunity to buy MSFT on a dip, as it will always go up", and, speaking about the Internet stocks still being very attractive to him at their current prices, said (quote) "this Mania is different....unlike that of the Biotechs, when they had parabolic rises then fell a lot thereafter"....wow....another nice Put signal, yes ? ....2) Tue. 12th, 1:35 pm, cnbc, a floor trader said, "the market is too strong to be 'terminal' here....too much momentum...." More S.T. top words... . 3) Tue. 12th, 8:24 am, Salomon Bros. downgrades offshore drillers....might we get another buy opp. lower, ahead ? ....4) Investors Intelligence (my favorite oxymoron) readings, showed bullish % of NL writers, at 60 % finally, last week.... the highest % since before the last 2 decent market corrections, last Spring, and last Summer.... 5) Merrill raises price target on AOL, from 160, to 195, Alex, Brown, to 180...into the parabola.... 6) although still not a "hook top" yet, all analysts raised their estimates on INTC, Tues. ....7) and, Deutsche Bank, finally lowered their rating on CPB (a put I gave you herein near its top), to "hold", from from "accumulate"....Note, not a "sale", just still a "hold"....late, after a big drop which they missed, no protection, etc. Know this: as taught in my booklets, B-firms rarely ever give outright "sale" signals (except near lows, after they were wrong holding the stock all the way down).
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I
derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically
closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/
suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis
where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the
balance" of assumed long positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2" sale....and, "css"
means "covered previous short sale", where no puts options existed....
and puts, CACS, AMTD, BGEN, DNEX, FLEX, EAII., AGN, and, longs, MANU, SNT, TOY, VTO, LWN, TGX (13 to 18 to 11-), for VQ, very small losses....and, 1/2 pos. stock AMLN (3 to 1/4 to 2-) for 35 % L.T. loss....there have been too many puts Q, S, losses in the recent past, but, as I said, this is of small consequence in the bigger picture overall, especially this time of year....and I am still giving out many more, other, large % Gains....note, some "Puts QSL's" were the very next day....just being honest for you....when/if the pattern cracks the next day, I will give them as losses.....similarly, when/if they move in our desired direction the next day, that will be reported here as well....Remember, occasional 20 % portfolio drawdowns are NORMAL and accepted, L.T., without losing our agressiveness or positive, normal thought or action, in the "next" set of ideas that present themselves....NO emotion....NO overreaction...
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We just
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and
similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of
course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would
be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for so short a holding period, yes ?
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note,
most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:
(new ones) CENT @ 14 1/8, FP @ 2 3/8, HIV @ 1 11/16, THP @ 7++,
(repeats) (note, some "re-added" repeats) AZC @ 9/16, BDS @ 2 15/16, BGO @ 3/4, BIR @ 4+, BLM @ 2.06, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CQB @ 9++, CXI. @ 5/16, CYI. @ 1 5/8, EAR @ 5/8, ELY @ 10+, FCH @ 22+, GLDR @ 1-, GSR @ 1, IAIC @ 1 3/16, INPR @ 5+, KTEC @ 6++, MANU @ 12++, MHR @ 2 7/8, MKA @ 8+, MPN @ 4 1/4, MRII. @ 2 5/16, MS @ 1.06, NGX @ 7/16, NL @ 13-, SAA @ 0.81, SSC @ 11/16, TFN @ 4, TOX @ 3/16, TRP @ 14+, TSA @ 4 11/16, TWLB @ 13+, UMR @ 11/16, VGZ @ 3/16....most are still EVB's...."buy low", right ? and, more importantly, that, now, AFTER recent rises, most "new buys" are real cheapies, and/or "laggards" with less "sexiness", and/or for "catch up" moves....also see the "just missed" issues, below....many previously given stocks are already up, too late, dig ?
New Note: added a new section, of "Mansfield Chart" depressed base ideas, by
I.G., in sec. (6) below....also, note, some new/repeat long buys, are in stage 2,
having pulled back after previous upside breakouts from earlier bases, dig ?
still plenty to choose from, to build a portfolio, long-side....
NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should
already understand/know, that, very often, there is NOT "just one day" when my
ideas become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/
fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5)
anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want
"longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times.... "just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the
stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media patterns.
** Important: took, none, --- Off pot. Long buys list,
before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new
lows....and/or, they need more work, technically....also recall the last few
lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for
every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real
cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue
chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money
Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper
Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: BCST @ 250-, BXM @ 58-, CCU @ 60-, GTSG @ 63+, IMNX @ 120-, MAST @ 29, MEDQ @ 38++, PGNS @ 57, SSP @ 50+, SVU @ 28+, TXCC @ 42, UIS @ 35, XCIT @ 80+,
IMPORTANT: for the first time, Mon., 11th, I said, on a "PSYCLE sm" "sentiment" basis (vs. just being parabolas, some of which I have been a little early/wrong on), Fri. 8th/Mon. 11th/Tue. 12th, may mark "the top", as a final, "fakeout breakout", a "sucker in the last set of ignorant buyers", as taught in the "Downside" booket, in Internets. We know about the ridculous premiums on their Puts, but some don't even have puts, so are/were just straight "short sales" where suitable/available....I don't know anyone who actually has either had these, of is currently long, or buying, recently....do you ?
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) AMP @ 52+, AOL @ 162, CFR @ 55+, CMA @ 69-, DLX @ 37, GDT @ 114-, HAE @ 23+, IBM @ 190, INKT @ 176, MSBC @ 45+, PKN @ 97+, SEPR @ 95+, SLR @ 90-, TSAI. @ 49+, UNPH @ 70, VRSN @ 80+, WHIT @ 28-, WIND @ 49-....notice, as they jockey/bounce, we are getting mutliple chances to buy "repeats" put issues....and/but, remember, I/we have NO "market scenario", ever, as you know....and, note, there have been too many minor breakouts, so I had to take real small, quick Puts losses, and NOT fight the tape, in those stocks.... But that does not mean I am not finding more/new ones, in our Puttable Ind. groups , still showing the "EVT" or umbrella or double-top patterns, which YOU should be taking advantage of.
and/but, Took, DNEX, MRX, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern ....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks HIT their "buy/put" levels
in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that is your doing.
....and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", DETC, CIEN, OBJS, CMIC, DDIM, BDE, CBJ, GSB, BDR, PMC, PXD, NOX, ICI., OH, as Longs near very recent lows, and, LCOS (115 to 145 to 90 to 110 to 85), IONAY, YHOO, ELNK, CTXS, SEGU, MXWL, EGRP, SEEK, ODP, DOX, TXU, PG, MM, as Puts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing such charts, also tells us, whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
for the last time: Please Note, still more (sos) signals on "already-up" stocks, as more approach their 200 DMA or resistance levels....got that ? Also see, AMMB 12+, BNYN 17-, KLIC 25, KMAG 15+, LIPO 17-, SDTI. 28, RDRT 20-, HTCH 41, ADPT 25, GNCI. 20+, LRCX 28, OXHP 20, ANDW 19+, DIMD 9++, FDC 37-, PKX 21, CTB 21, TSM 19, AHG 11+, IKN 11+, IVX 12, STN 10, GCR 7, X. 29, MDM 6, higher still, from where I gave you all herein, near their saucer lows, earlier in 1998....wow.... VIEW their charts to LEARN the Pattern....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers who want "real
quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger
potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will
hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can
really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of many reaons why
we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and
increase one's stress, on purpose, is beyond illogic.
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, ACLY 7 3/8 up 2 (sos), MGN 2 1/2, 3 3/8, MANU 13 5/8 up 1 1/8, PRD 19 3/4 up 1 3/8, IDTC -3, +1 3/4, -2 3/4, NOV 3, Oil Service (VRC, HAL, NBR, PGO, VTS, ESV, RRC, RDC, PDS, UTI., FGI., NE, HP, DO), FCH 23, BAANF, GYMB, TWLB, NWAC, WKGP, MIFGY, CDE, BMG, TEN, NBTY, PLC, FNL, JOB, CPU, GLT, MCL, ATX/A, COE, PMK, TXB, LSS, ESOL, LXR, PRD, NPSI., SEW, PPP, HPH, JBAK, LDW, MSX, ISSI., HBI., BIR, BUR, ADM, WEL, SRR, CCC, CYM, LYO, MPN, SUL, NGX, SSC, MCN, CCH, UPX, IHS, FP, AR, all Metals....some of these are also in "ms" list below.
New Note: many basing stocks are hitting, and pulling back S.T., from their
"intrabase highs" hit late Nov., as I said above....some , if calls options, can
be taken as quick % Gains, if one wishes, while others will likely arise anew
after S.T. pb's....just FYI, and learning....again, a lot of this is based on
YOUR situational needs. Some people want to take the quick-hit, others want a
longer, possibly larger trade.
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the
bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are
your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able
to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and
also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also
eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T.
gratification"
and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or
else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
*** new note: most Internet stocks will still have initial stage 5 support, around a) the price levels above which they broke out, to make their most recent parabolic late stage 3 tops, or, b) their "gap" breakout levels in December, or, c) their previous congestion levels from Nov./Dec., dig ? This was covered in section (8) weks ago herein, and in my "downside" booklet....i.e., on BCST, 150-140, then maybe, 100 ? on EBAY, 220, then, maybe, 165 or so ? on XCIT, 55 or so ? and, AOL, when/if ift breaks below 140 or so, 120, then, maybe, 95-100 ? None carved in stone...but do NOT expect them to fall to their 200 DMA's right away....be patient....one step at a time, and have NO "preset secenarios". Remain flexible, open-minded....
* Note, how I, again, am giving you many Puttable stocks, which are Falling ....that I am among the very few, giving out ANY profitable puts, since early last Sept. (and tons more, from March, 1998, and from July through Oct., 1998) should
be enough, yes ?
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near
support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in
section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....
remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so
please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their
thing....**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): LLY + 4 1/2, UNPH +4, -2, INTU +4, COMS +3 1/2, BRG -1, +3, NMGC +2, LSON +2, SEPR +2, -2, IDXX +1, LLY +3, CSC -2 1/2, TXCC +2, FAM -2 1/4, MEDQ +2, BSYS -1, MSBC +1, INHL, LLL, BOBE, ABT, FTU, COF, MMC, UIS, drugs.
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for Rotation":some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple-
bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if
they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given
recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their
lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will
NOT "pay up" much.
"Leisure/Entertainment": (besides, ELY, MWY, PAR, PIN, PRD, TOY), found several other real cheapies in the Mansfield charts, which I share below here.
Semis/Comp./Techs: please see "Techs", listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (add, DDIM, to, SAA, UBIX, CMND, IAIC, MIFGY, but Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (CBJ, BMG, CDE, GSR, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, ECO, BGO, AR, some real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Paper, Copper, Glass) (IGL, NL, BIR, RTC, MAH, CYM, CCC, FNL)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (IIR, UTI., UMR, TRP, LYO, UPR, GLM, MHR, RDC, WEL, TRMB, FGI., near their recent lows, Only, most are too high now, and/or are pulling back first)
Biotech/Health/Medical (TAROF, COB, RBO, MATK, FHCC, CBMI., NHC, TWLB, NOV, GNSA, LXR, TOX, ULB, CCLR, TOX, MPN, IHS, MT, VTA, TXB, VC)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (TSA, RXSD, GYMB, REV, NBTY, SRR, COO, PVH,
PBY, SRR, HMY, KFI., MSN, UNO, BLM, GCO, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (ILX, PAM, LOD, HET, CIR, SER)
Employment (NRL, OLS, JOB, ESOL, eh)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, FCH, CPT, HOT, LSN, KE, JAMS, BD, LOD, PRT, SMT, OH, WDN, RTC, ACH, ARI., FHS, NHR, BRE, PAH, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CRO, PMC, ENN, FBG, NDE, KPA, JPR, MAA, PMC, RFS, SPF, TMA, IMH, FP, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": IOX, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
add, DETC, THP, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, (alphabetically by symbol) ACE, ALN, ALR, AOI., ARG, ATC, ATV, BDE, BDR, BEZ, BGO, BTC, CBJ, CENT, CEXP, CFB, CFS, CIEN, CLCDF, CPU, CQB, CXI., CYB, EAR, ELCO, FHS, FLM, GDC, GHM, GKI., HCM, HDG, HIV, HMY, HPH, ICI., IDTC, ILX, IMG, IMP, INPR, IO., KNE, KRY, LSN, MKA, MLP, MSX, NETM, NEV, NOX, OIL, PXD, RBO, SCS, SEW, SSN, STRX, SUPX, SWW, TFN, TIE, TLZ, TMO, TSA, TWA, UQM, WKGP, VSNR, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health"), plus, the Value Line issues: NSANY, DEMP, OFIS, SEW, TSA, MGN)....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....
*** NEW: these are longer, tighter depressed bases, directly from
longer-term, 2 1/2-year, "Mansfield" charts:
health, medical/pharm. (AIMM, ALLP, MRII, NPRO, SCNI., TAROF, VMRX)
comp./tech./s'ware: (CSRE, GTSI., LSKIC, MIDI, OBJS, KTEC, PNCL)
telecom, etc.: (APAC, MRVC)
leisure/entert.: (SHOW, FAIRE, ONST, WCCI., (all real risky/cheap)
capital goods: (DETC, DSGIF, FAVS, ISCO, JPEI., WAFTZ, WSTNA) (these are bigger companies)
Note, most of these have high $ cash/share, little or no debt, and/or
earnings, for those of you who value those things....others are REAL
cheapies/veey risky....there are others I am checking, with similar patterns,
will let you know....mind you, these are NOT "very-short-term" trades....but some
subscribers wanted some longer, depressed basers, so here they are....just
providing something for every need....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY, do NOT "chase
down":
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the
ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....note LARGER/growing list !!!
(banks/insur.) WABC, AFS, HIG, CMA, HLI., MSBC, TROW, SUT, NFS,
(comp./techs/s'ware) BSYS, NMGC, GPSI., MANH, INTU., INSS, IBM, UIS,
(telecom/commun.) CDRD, LLL, COMS, DY,
(medical/health/drug) BMET, BGEN, ABT, IDXX, MEDI.,
(internet) EBAY, DCLK, AOL, others, etc.
also watching: add, EGRP, CCU, to, AMP, AMT, BCST, BXM, CFR, CL, CLX, CSGS, CTXS, CXR, DL, FDX, FNM, GMSTF, GPU, GTSG, HAN, IMNX, IONAY, LAF, LSON, MANH, MKL, MM, MXWL, NAB, NIS, NTLI., PG, PGNS, PKN, PL, PLH, RSCR, SAPE, SEGU, SEPR, SSP, SVU, TSAI., TXCC, UFS, UNPH, VRSN, WAT, WHIT, WIND, WLP, Food/Bev., big-name Consumer stocks...
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: added some Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Homebuilding, Consumer, Utilities, to, Extended Banks, Health/Medical/Drug/ Biotech, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Retail, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, and all Tele.-Commun., in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns.... also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
additional note: there are also a plethora of big-name/biggest recent
gainers, possibly forming V.S.T. "EVT" tops here, and are certainly now due for
corrections....too many to list here....but you get my drift....
Been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets".... Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I promised I would re-run "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm"", and, from 12/7 NL, through the 12/28 NL, I did so.....refer back to those sec. (8)'s any time.....hope they helped....but NO special "lesson" today, except to re-read recent explanations of stages 1-7....take that time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NEW NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your benefit,
and, still in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its original suggested
buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing thing....A stock
might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4 follow-up), then is
pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy (sec. 6)....GOT
THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3, ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times: all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact.....period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL return
to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up "revalidating"
after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little consequence,
since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all emotions
from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ? (plus, as I
taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end period, employing
a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one
year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A
stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have
"everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position,
and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years"....One must
decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But
at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts
us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we
seek 1-2-3-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor
intraweek moves.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven
that yet again.