1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) another S.T.-only PSYCLE-sign, as Fri., CNBC cited analysts now saying, "we are seeing true signs of life in Tech. company financials, justifying their recent higher +50 to +100% rises prices currently as still attractive L.T.", which, as you know, means 'watch out' just a bit from here.... 2) note continuing relative weakness among plenty of extended Financial stocks....who was first/only to predict that for others' benefit in Puttables ? ....3) enuf Utils. are holding up to warrant sticking around.... 4) and most Oil Service stocks broke their S.T. uptrends, so awaiting further pb's B4 buy most, except OLOG.... 5) note, plenty of blue-chip-type longs, most all with L.T., ITM calls when suitable, in sec. (6).... for those of you who refuse to buy the low-priced ones near lows....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) with the new weird-but-not-surprising-to-me-as-you-know 'hockey rink rage' BS trial stuff, an intelligent talkshow guy stated, "you'd think 9/11 might have changed at least some journalists to not sensationalize stories as much, but I guess that was too much to ask." we agree, yes ? the only good news, is that, since nothing ever changes much, my "PSYCLE's" media contrary readings/signals should continue to make you money the vast majority of the time, which is, at least something of benefit to us.... 2) just so you didn't think she was actually getting less lousy and incorrectly and overemotional, CNBC's Martha ______, Mon., misled big-time, saying, "DOW stock is getting CLOBBERED, down 2 pts. to 27, on a bad earnings est. revision".....interestihng, since DOW had already been 'clobbered' months ago, from 47 to 25 to 9/./21, yes ?, and had risen up to 38 since....dgms....just proving my "PSYCLE sm' tenet yet again....
3) got another L.T. bullish contrary sign, as the "INvestment Advisor" mag. recent issue had huge insert titled, "Survival Guide for a weak economy, toiugh times, and a bear market", get it ? maybe that should have been published a year or two ago, ay ? the pattern rarely changes.... 40 and L.A.T. front-page headline 1/4, "Tech. stocks on a roll....Surge continues", presges recent sloppiness in the already-rallied ones, as we predicted first, both ways ....proves the Media's contrary value, yet again, yes ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) as the Finl. Media super-pans big layoffs at Ford and MOT, note I added them to buy list down here, as usual....and, Fri., a big car analyst on Wall St. finally gave it a 'sell', which will, as usual, probably be good for us, huh....the pattern rarely changes.... 2) and as to KM, further, CNBC's David Faber, late/at low as usual, finally did super-negative story....the pattern rarely changes....anyway, he actually said (at $ 3. down from $ 20. where CNBC reported so positively "turn-around in sight for KM", recall), "this cannot hold much promise for KM stock"....which means, of course, watch for a S.T. bottom and rise, ahead, though it does not fit my "PSYCLE s,' yet....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) nice-guy-I-respect-as-a-person-but-am-unsure-of-his-track-record, continues to warn (but as he has also done since 9/21, as I reported herein earlier), that "most tech. companies are still going to report lower earnings, forward, so don't get too excited after many have rallied already", so kudos to him, kind of, but, he never has bought anything anywhere near bases bottoms nor EVB's....but I agree with the already-rallied stocks and i add the sec. (7) rolling tops in extendeds, which 99% of all other mgrs./NL guys fail to include, even from their previous 1999-2000 parabolic tops, yes ? .... 2) recent shenanigans in Enron stuff, and now, finding A.A. guys actually Watergate-like-ly destroying documents pertaining to ENE, just proves my "PSYCLE sm" tenets/beliefs about many businesspeople....not good, for most....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) once again, a sharp CNBC caller-in, asked how come mtg. rates remain much higher than the fed-funds rate, etc., never mind credit-card rates ....I repeat, touche....not 'linking' this to many Financial and Bank/S & L stocks potential rolling tops, here, as I have been saying for a little while, confirms my concept again.... 2) recent L.A.T. article showed that, surprisingly, 'only' 72 % of USA banks are 'federally-insured'....and that figure has continued to fall yearly, from, say, 80 % in 1996....hmmmm....making it harder for people with over $ 100 K in a bank....investors lost, they said, $ 114 mm to bank failures the last 3 years (which actually pales in comparison to ENE, and other items in recent past years, like the TRILLIONS lost in the Internet stocks bust, but I digress, and they never put thet figure in perspective, but then, the financial Media never does, right ?)....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better,
and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains, 1 more Longs (plus several 'balances'), and, 4 more Puts:
bal. stock CTHR (1.00- to 2.35+) for 125% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. FSII. (7 to 11) for 100% G....bal. calls ABX (14+ to 17+) for Q 90% G....all calls GSB (24+ to 28) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. puts ATVI (28- to 23+) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts IFF (31+ to 27+) for VQ 50% G....bal. puts TYC (60 to 50) for VQ 66% G....bal. puts NHP (21 to 18+) for 50% G....1/2 pos. puts JCI (82 to 75) for VQ small % G....
and/but, longs, ACLA, SLGLF, FLR, NNDS ny, bal. VRSN no, CIEN ?, and, puts, SUI, MSFT no, UDR no, LIZ ny, TECD no, MTH ? ny, CSTR ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. KO @ 44+, 1/2 pos. NTT @ 15+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
1/2 pos. CIMA @ 30, 1/2 pos. F @ 15, 1/3 pos. MOT @ 14 1/8, 1/2 pos. VIGN @ 4-, 1/2 pos. BDAL @ 15, 1/3 pos. AOL @ 31, SHPGY @ 35, 1/2 pos. SGP @ 34+, 1/3 pos. PACW @ 0.40+, 1/3 pos. NDE @ 22+, BTY @ 35, 1/3 pos. GX @ 0.63, 1/3 pos. ITCD @ 0.90, CCR @ 40, BOY @ 7+, 1/3 pos. NXY no ?, FON @ 19-, RIGL 4 5/8, 1/2 pos. TEO @ 5.65 eh, NNDS @ 18+, PBCT @ 21-, VRA @ 1.2, VSAT @ 12++, 1/3 pos. GSK @ 48+ eh, 1/3 pos. UHS @ 38+, ZIXI. 4.55, ALL 32 eh...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, BRZZ, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
I try
to give them alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones):
BBBY @ 35, 1/2 pos. HOTT @ 34++ ?, 1/2 pos. LEG @ 23,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. ATVI. @ 27++, 1/2 pos. UPC @ 45+, 1/2 pos. PEP @ 49, 1/3 pos. MTH @ 53 ?, 1/2 pos. KSS @ 71-, 1/2 pos. BCS @ 135, 1/2 pos. UST @ 35, 1/2 pos. APD @ 47+, CBRL @ 30+, 1/2 pos. FDO @ 30+, 1/2 pos. MSFT @ 70, 1/2 pos. UB @ 39 eh, 1/2 pos. TECD @ 48, 1/3 pos. VFC @ 40, CBRL @ 30+, ACV @ 45+, 1/2 pos. COST no ?, AMG @ 72+, SFG @ 48, 1/2 pos. VCI. @ 36, SKYF @ 20+, 1/2 pos. FTN @ 36++, LIZ @ 53+, HD @ 51+, 1/2 pos. ITT @ 51, CFBX @ 26, PSA @ 35+, 1/2 pos. GCI. @ 69++, ASBC @ 35++, UDR @ 14+, IWV @ 65-, IVV @ 117-, QQQ @ 42+, 1/2 pos. ICBC @ 24+, UDR @ 14+, AMG @ 72++ ?,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in
sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", MNY, CNA, BRZZ, TLK, MWL, KEI, SGEN, HNCS, RNWK, RMBS, PB, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, ZRAN, UPC, IART, ONE, MUR, AGE, ROOM, CTAS, IP, ETM, LE, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
many more big winners for you....you're welcome:
CTHR 2.63 up 0.39 (S), SGP 35.70 up 1.55, MFDE 3.23, CEI. 18.74, TSS 21.65, up/higher since last NL here....while, NEM 20.14, CMNT 24, HGMCY 7+, EPNY 11, PVN 4+, CALP 18, higher still....and, MIPS, hit its 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
SIEB 5.25 up 0.64, HBIO 8.20, 9.20, 8.15, UHS 38.5 (B), 40.7, BTY 34.50 (B), 36.40, 35.70, SGP 34.15 pb (B), UTHR 9.25 pb, AVGN 10.10, 10.71, RRC 4.16 pb/bopb, MICC 11.47 dn, WFII. 6.27 pb, SCOR, KEYN, UFI, CHRS, BLS, AOL, NDE, MCD 26 bopb, CIEN 14+ pb, VSAT, AYE 35.82 up, AMCC 11-, SHPGY, RT, RRC 4.30 pb, CEI, CCR 40.25, 41.95, VLCCF, ALL 33+ up 1, CPST 4.46 dn, ACPW 6.28 dn, RIGL, DPL 23.9, 24.6, GX, Q., TFS, BTY 36.7, 35.7, GSB 27.5 pb, the DJUA 294+ up 3, CTS, SRE, MFDE 3.01, ACTU 5.41 pb, 6.13, 5.80, MICC 11.02 pb, PEG, SIEB 4.75, SPOT 21. pb, SCOR 29+ up, UTHR, NXY 19 (B), ITCD 0.57 dn, VIGN 4.55 ....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
TEO 5.60 (B), 5.90, OLOG 16.60 (B), VSAT 12.76 (B), ZIXI. 4.46 (B), 5.88, NXY 18.76 msn, FON 18.68 (B), 19.24, FLR, GSK, KANA 22+ dn 4+, VRSN, UAL, NNDS (B) ?, TG, LNUX, PSEM pb, HMT, PHI, TERN 7.53 dn, TIE (S), CIEN 13.75 (S) ?, GSB 26.75 pb, CIMA (B), IFC, PDG 11.51 pb, 12.11, UFI, KEYN, WFII, KFY (sos), DSS 10.14 dn, CHRS, CHINA, and,
most all Techs and rallied stocks, must follow-through up further....above their bases and resistance highs of this week....and/or, above their previously-broken-below-before-Sept. 11th-levels....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
TYC -5 (S), BCS -6 1/2, ATVI. -2, JCI. -2, TECD -2, NSM -2, RMD -1 5/8, MSFT -1 1/2, ACE -1 1/4, QQQ -1 1/2, FDO -1, GTK -1, APD -1, HD -2, VCI, UB, IWV -1, ASBC -1, RE -1, HOTT -1, KSS -1, BBBY -1, UDR -1/2, PFGC, IFF -1, LEG, BAC -1, down/further since last NL here....and, JCI, ATVI, MAR, BAC, FDO, IFF, approached/fell to their 200 DMA....while, PRX 28-, down even further....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
Utilities, Entertainment/Leisure, Retail/Apparel, Cable, Brokers, Foreign depr. stocks - like Japan, Agriculture-oriented, Golds, Telecom, Steel, Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, and Precious and other Metals, some Transportation/Airlines, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds, at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note,
obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many
others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note,
re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this
NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read
sec. (1) above), added these:
KO, CCI, KTC, NTT, DTE, ANAD, AETH, NUAN, U, SONS, TKIOY, CNU, to, FAX, MOT, SATC, ADCT, AKAM ?, HNCS, HGSI, PCYC, DLEX, FLM, CED, WR, PCOP ?, F, CNC ?, KME ?, PB, FDRY, WGRD ?, ENWY, GEMP, BCON, MDCC, CIEN, BSTE, KCS, KEI. ?, HIT ?, BRW, AMCC eh, ANEN, HYDL, STOR, RIGL, RMBS, SCAI, WHES ?, ATML, PLXS ?, PNW, ALS, FLA, TEX, ACTU, BDAL, ELON, TLCP ?, NNDS !?, STLW, UCFC, TRMB, RT, BOY, MTP ny, RMBS opbo, AVNX opbo, JDSU obpbo, CTS, EX, ALL eh, TSS, NGEN, MFDE, HYSQ, CEI, SLR ?, UHS ?, CNH, MCD, VRSN ?,
as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy/Alt./Svcs.: BR opbo, RRC, VLCCF, PWR, NXY, OLOG,
some Biotechs, Drugs, and health-relateds: ACLA no ?, HBIO, SGP, GERN, CIMA, SCOR, OSTE, SHPGY, DMN, GSK, ABMD, GERN, (AVGN, UTHR, already up),
among Telecom-Internet-Satellite-Commun.-orienteds: PACW, TLCP, AOL, NTT, TEO, NNDS ?, SPOT, BLS, GX, BTY, SCMR, VIGN,
Utils.: PEG, AYE, NU, DTE, (others are already up),,
financial-orienteds: CCR, ALL, FAF, TSS, CNC ?, NDE, TKOIY,
and, some more Foreign stocks and Telecoms,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, WSM, OMC, CTAS, PSFT, ONE, FO, ETM, IP, GPT ?, LE, JCP, TCF ?, AXL, YUM ?, to, BBBY, MEDI. ?, PSFT, PEP, NSM, FDO, GTK, NBR, PH, UST, UPC, STZ, CLX, HOTT ?, CSTR no ?, LEG, KSS, MTH ?, ATVI, CBRL, EFTD, MSFT no ?, MNTR ?, KSHS, UOPX, INTU ?, JCI, VFC, TECD, PGR, ADRX, AMGN, ZRAN, PCL ?, SFG, RCI, APOL ?, SMTC, ICBC, COST no ?, IFF, PSA, ACV, IBC, ITT, RCI, MTH, GCI, FBC, IMCL ?, FTN, STW ?, SKYF, UDR ?, BCS, TOO, APPB no ?, MATR, NHP, AMG no ?, BCS ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: added, extended Building/Residential/Commerical-relateds, Semiconductor-relateds, and maybe Chem. soon, to,
Extended: Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Peripherals, Security.... Toys/Leisure/Video/Games, temp. staffing, restaurants, Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Insur. Brokers/Banks/Mtg./S & L's/Loans, Homebuilders/Construction/Electrical, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES