1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) seeing continuing drops in the
Drugs, which I was the first to give herein at tops as Puts, we again see more
proof of normal I.G.R., independent of any real or perceived fundamentals, etc.
.... 2) ditto with the Utils., DJUA down to 330 or so, Tue., but with support not
to much lower than below here, ahead, dig ? intersting, since I am the only
person to have perfectly given out every Util. move the last 2 years hereinin
advance, that, even with all the I.R. drops, and demand rise in Elec., the DJUA
is "only" slightly higher than its lows, after all that....NO "automatic links',
right ? ....3) as the first/only guy to give them all out right from recent lows
herein, as expected, we now see that many Semis and Techs are approaching their
previous-down-gaps as S.T. resistance....hence the section (3) at least
1/2-positions sales, and (sos) in section (4).....learn my concept ! ....4) I was
also, as usual, the first/only, to give out recent
lows-while-everyone-else-was-scared buys in some Internet stocks herein for you....easy pickin's....
5) and, of course, note our expected correction in T-bonds, hah ! exactly as only I predicted: the double-bottom around 98, the rise towards
initial upside 106+, a pullback to 102 so far, ho hum....yield already up from 5.3 % to 5.6 % VQ.... 6) also note further expected-only-by-me-first drops among Insur. and Bank and Investing stocks given herein at recent highs as Puts for you....normal, usual, but some cont. to approach initial downside targets and/or 200 DMA's, so being careful here again....recommended taking QLG's in section (3).... 7) also note rises beginning in our only-I-gave-them-out-herein-first-from-lows Europeans and CEMF's.... 7) and, as only i predicted near tops, note drops in HMO stocks - as usual, just as 'the 95 %' fell in love with them....I was also the first to call their 1999 bottoms, herein, yes ? ....8) I also think many Homebuilding stocks are due for a top ahead soon, watch for it - again, just as 'the 95%' begin to like them....the pattern rarely changes.... 9) note unpredicted by anyone else rises among Media stocks - hey, even I missed them....but worth viewing for learning purposes.... 10) also note, re-added some previously-successful Energy-stocks as Puttables....as usual, I am the first/only guy around doing this, close stops above, as always....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) CNBC's Pisani, Fri. 11;30, finally highlighted TOY making a
new high - recall who was certainly the first/only to give it and other depressed
Toy stocks at last year's lows herein for you....the pattern rarely changes....
2) ditto with CNBC's Thu. 11;45, saying, "the stealth rally in the previously
depressed Telecom stocks is heating up....but I guess it is not a 'stealth' rally
any more..." Gee, lady, I gave them out herein first, right from recent lows,
yes ? how easy was that ? ....3) and, Pisani, 12:30, actually said, "....and
the Telephone stocks seem tobe coming to life...." LATE, as usual, right
?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) as I was among the very first to
warn against the merger of AOL and TWX herein from their respective
stock-price-tops (correct again, as usual), now that the merger is finished, this
comfirms my beliefs about thr lack of competency of Govt. agencies and the greed
and avarice of many corporations....another monopoly, like, cable, airtrans.,
energy, harmful subsidies of commodities, utilities, etc., don't get me
started.... 2) although we just missed it herein, I was among the first/only to
give out KM near recent low, suggesting a possible takeover even L.T., and, Fri.
hit $ 7, huge vol., neat, huh....also confirms my other Retail/Clothes stocks
given out herein from recent lows.... 3) the guy at yoga who got al excited about
EMLX anear its top (don't get me started....he used to be a subscriber, said he
read all my booklets, etc.), recently sidled to me, "I love UTX here at 75, I
hear they are getting deeper into the helicopter business...." (he flies
helecopters) ....nice call, again, guy....not....see what I have to endure ?
and he still has not given me a dime to manage for him, get it ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) kudos to the analyst on CNBC< did not get
name, who, Fri. 8 am, presented the first salient comments on the impending EVB
in Calif. Utils....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) just FYI, evidently, even with all the craziness, So. Calif. Edison, still has $ 1. billion in cash....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
yet a Ton more Gains for you (now dozens given you recently herein):
mostly many Calls first, then more Puts: read them slowly, thoroughly, and VIEW charts to learn patterns, as always:
bal. calls LRCX (14+ to 22+) for VVQ 250% Gain....bal. calls STOR (17 to 26+) for VVQ 250% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PRSF (5+ to 9+) for VVVQ 111% Gain....bal. calls WCOM (14 to 22++) for Q 250% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. CPWR (6- to 12-) for Q 200% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. UIS (10+ to 17) for 133% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. PMTC (8++ to 17-) for L.T. 175% G....1/2 pos. calls LU (13 to 19-) for VVQ 175% G.... 1/2 pos. calls GTW (17 to 24) for Q 175% G....all calls TFS (16+ to 23) for VVQ 175% G....all calls DELL (17 to 23+) for VVQ 175% G....1/2 pos. calls NSM (20 to 26++) for VQ 133% G....all calls TEO (15 to 22) for VQ 175% G....1/2 pos. calls TNB (13++ to 17+) for 125% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. SAPE (10 to 18) for VVQ 150% G....bal. calls TSM (16+ to 22++) for VQ 144% G....bal. calls PLL (18+ to 24-) for 133% G....1/2 pos. calls BTY (83++ to 108) for VVQ 133% G....all stk.on.mgn. LGTO (9 to 15) for 133% G....bal. calls FON (20 to 29-) for Q 175% G....1/2 pos. calls EFII (13+ to 18) for Q 133% G....1/2 pos. calls COHU (13+ to 18) for VQ 133% G....
more: bal. puts PMI (72 to 52) for 111% G....all puts MBI (76 to 62+) for VVVQ 75% G....all puts SPC (55+ to 44+) for VQ 80% G....all puts CB (88+ to 69) for VQ 80% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. PRSF (5+ to 9+) for VVQ 111% G....bal. calls LU (14 to 18) for VVQ 111% G....bal. puts DUK (88- to 65) for VQ 111% G....all puts ABK (56- to 44+) for 80% G....bal. puts MBI (74 to 62+) for 66% G....all puts BK (55+ to 50+) for VVQ 44% G....1/2 pos. stock MT (2 1/4 to 3 3/8) for VQ 44% G.... bal. puts FPL (68 to 56) for 66% G....bal. calls TKR (13 to 16-) for 80% G....bal. puts MTG (68- to 53) for 80% G....bal. puts AIG (100 to 82) for VQ 75% G....bal. puts AIG (95+ to 82) for L.T. 66% G....1/2 pos. calls REY (17 to 21) for L.T. 85% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. MWL (4- to 6-) for Q 60% G....bal. puts FRX (70 to 61) for Q 50% G....1/2 pos. puts CHRW (32 to 27) for VVQ 75% G....bal. puts MRK (95 to 81) for Q 70% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. EMF (7.4 to 8.5) for Q 25% G....1/2 of 2nd pos. stock RAD (2 1/2 to 4 3/8) for VQ 60% G....and, puts ABX (17 to 15+) for Q small % G....and, in perfect "PSYCLE sm" behavior, all calls CNXT (20 to 13 to 21) for a B.E. trade at worst, see ?
and/but, longs, 1/2 of 1st pos. stk.on.mgn. RAD (7+ to 4+) for L.T. big % L, CREE (31 to 36 to 30-), PCW, YHOO no, and, puts, MER, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....I would not be surprised if some of our QSL's later turn out to be fakeout breakouts, but we must conserve portfolio capital here hwre we can.... again, expect to see many 'fobo's' among puttables, which is another reason to properly diversify and always own some Puts....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. CHRS @ 6-, 1/2 pos. JPR @ 17+, 1/2 pos. MXBIF @ 7.81, 1/2 pos. PB @ 13+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AII. @ 7 3/4,
BGEN @ 50+, BGO @ 0.405, BSRTS @ 5 1/2, CBJ @ 1/4, CWCO @ 7-, DHC @ 3 3/4, EMF @
7 1/2, ERICY @ 10+, EWU @ 17+, FTE @ 80+, FRT @ 19, HA @ 1 7/8, HDL @ 7 1/8, HNV
@ 1/4, HWP @ 30, IYCOY @ 44+, KRY @ 3/4, LOJN @ 7, MRCH @ 1+, MWBX @ 5++, PAP @ 1/2, PNK @ 12++, SHOO @ 7+, STHLY @ 10, VRA @ 1 1/4, XETA @ 9, YHOO @ 25...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, CNH, Off the pot. Long Buys list,
before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at
bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): CEC @ 35+, 1/2 pos. CXIPY @ 66-, ECLP @ 28, EMLX @ 93-, 1/2 pos. EMR @ 78, 1/2 pos. HNCS @ 28-, 1/2 pos. IGT @ 48, 1/2 pos. KRB @ 39+ ?, 1/2 pos. MENT 29, 1/2 pos. NCBC @ 25+, 1/2 pos. NMG @ 38, 1/2 pos. NOI. @ 38, 1/2 pos. SWBT @ 45+, 1/2 pos. TD @ 29-, TJX @ 30-, 1/2 pos. UTI. @ 32-, 1/2 pos. WFT @ 48-, and the 'aero./def. index' here @ (note its 'fobo' then expected fall anyway), and, the Canadian O & G index', here,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') CTX @ 40+, LEH @ 80-,
RDA @ 40+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, ACF, TYC,
and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put",
as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken
off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their
charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime
benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were
'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", ATAXZ, VIBC, TBCC, AMSY, PMRY, CMCSK, BOY, CLE, IFX, DIR, TIF, SKM, BMXS, ATMI, IMPR, XIRC, ACLS, PRIA, ACPW, DT, GES, OCLR, PKX, KTC, AVX, STM, SKO, USU, PBY, SKS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CECO, POS, OCA, MAPS, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.... again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a
little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss,
herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern more:
PRSF 9.71 up 2.90 (sos), CNXT 21 5/8 up 9 wow (S), GTW 24
1/2 up 6 (sos), VRA 1.75 up 0.50, DCLK 14.93 up 2.87, CPWR 12 up 2 (S), SOL 6 1/4
up 1 1/4, UMPQ 10 up 1 3/4, TFS 23.56 up 3.56 (S), XETA 11 5/8 up 1 5/8, KOPN 13.68 up 1.56, LRCX 22 5/8 up 2 (S), MT 3.50 up 0.31, LTD 18 1/4 up 1 3/4, RMDY 19.75 up 1.69, AMZN 18 1/2 up 1 1/4, EFII. 17.93 up 1.37, LU 19 up 1.31, SAPE 18.68 up 1 (S), CD 12.56 up 0.87, FTE 89 3/4 up 9 1/4, NNN 11 1/8 up 1, LGTO 15 up 2 (S), FON 29 up 2 (S), CTB 13 up 1 (sos), UIS 17 1/4 up 1 1/4 (S), STOR 27 1/2 up 1 5/8 (S), ODP 8.68 up 0.68, SHOO 9 3/4 up 3/4, DCLK 15.68 up 1 (sos), MPS 4 7/8 up 3/8, WCOM 23 up 1 (sos), TSM 22 5/8 up 1 (sos),
still more: PLL 24 (S), EGLS 18.51 (sos), COHU 18 1/4, GRT 13.56, FUN
19.95, CCC 6 3/8, CDO 13 7/8, DELL 23 7/8 (S), LII. 10.12, BTY 109 up 2, CKR 3 1/2, BGEN 54 1/2, VSH 17 1/2, TEO 22.18 (S), EWG 20, NSM 28.18 (S), AIR 13 1/4, PB 14, EMF 8.68, PMTC 17 (S), TNB 17.56 (sos), GRT 13.68, CDO 13.93, CMH 14+ (sos), JCP 12.93, DLM 8 3/4, FOX (sos), SOL 6 1/2, MWBX 6 3/4, TNB 17 3/4, CWCO 7 1/2,
and, CHB 3, 2 1/2, 6 1/4 wow, and, USU, 3 7/8, 5 1/4, and, SKS, TBCC, APN, IFX, LGTO, AMAT, etc., were tax-selling 'fobd's'....and, CMCSK 45, CVD 14, CNC 15, CC 18, WWW 18-, BMCS 20, rose even higher still....while, GLGC, WON, FOX, PKX, RAD, CD, TGX, NHI, KM, GRT, BMCS, EMF, LII, hit/approached/rose to over their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
LTD 17 up 1, CVM 1.90, STEI, ANAD 17+, TGX, GTW 19 1/4, DELL 22.81, ERICY 11.93, SNBC, AII, ARG, FRT, ADCT 16 1/2, AMZN 17+, SMTL, IYCOY 44 3/4, FTE 84, HCM, WCG, LOJN 7.75 up 0.75, HA, BGEN 53, HWP 30-, SHM, SNBC, TSP, ERICY 11.31, AKS, NCX, CD, SVRN, AIR....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) PAP 0.93 up 0.53, VIXL 3.37 up 1.43, MRCH 2.28 up 0.40, RAD 4 1/2 up 3/4 (sos), CREE 36, 30- (S), YHOO 25-, 27-, HLIT 9 5/8 up 1 (sos), ADCT 18.93, BTY 106, 99, 102, ARG, AM 12.31 up, LRW 3.68, ERICY, CNXT (S), AII, HIB, LII, STEI, MWL, CHINA 6.25, KDE, FMT, SVRN, HDL, ZMBA, TGX 7.06 (S)....and, also, all others above either 1/2-pos. sales in sec. (3) or (sos) herein, dig ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
more nice drops for you - I was the ONLY guy around
to give these from tops - learn the pattern: PMI. -8 (S), MTG -7 1/2 (S), LEH -4 1/2, MBI. -4 1/2 (S), SPC -4 1/2 (S), CB -4 1/2 (S), AIG -5 1/2 (S), EMLX -6, MEL -4, AFL -3, BK -3, CHRW -3, DGX -2 1/4, NTRS -3, NOI. -2 1/4, HNCS -2, ECLP -1 1/2, WFT -1 1/2, NOI. -1 5/8, DV -1 1/4, IGT -1 1/4, HBC -1, MENT -1 3/8, MRK -1 (S), TJX -1, NCBC -1 1/4, SLE, OXHP, down/further since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, CWN, DDR, GRT, FUN, RAS, TCC, JDN, ARJ, TCO, JPR, NHI, BSRTS, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (BMG, BGO, N, CAS, STLD, AKS, CBJ, KRY, PDG, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., Health-related Depresseds, and most all Chem.,
Ind. Groups....
and, of course, some of the many 'busted Techs/Semis/Telecoms', as EVB's, in paragraph just below....
and, Regional Banks/Finls. (STSA, UMPQ, UMBF, CEBC, SKYF, RBNC, MWBX, ALLE, GBCI, MXBIF, TBNC, SNBC, HOMF, CBBO, CWCO, UCFC, IFS, etc.)
Retail/Clothing (JWN tln, GES, LTD, LIZ tln, KM tln, JCP tln, etc.)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken, or
popped up too much recently, already, before you buy) added, 'the Russell
2000 Index', FMKT, INTC, SGI, GBCI, CTIX, BIGT, AFFX, CHEZ, ARTC, BBSW, ITRU ?, VGIN ?, TLRK, SNRA, CAMP, ORCH, WFII. ?, AETH, HELX, NMTC, LNUX, GMH, W, SCI, MTP, CRA, NT, SFE, FLO, FBR ?, CBR, CSL, PRD, HM, APF, SFP, GF, BOY, BS, DIS, VOX ?, to,
FFIV, XDSL, EBAY, ALLE, PNK, SOI, HWP, VSH, MRD, PB, STOR, GAP, NZT, KTC, MXBIF, TBNC, AMSY, STHLY, CTBI, IYCOY, BPUR, BSRTS, ADTK, MDII, WIRE, DZTK, MNTX, BESI, XETA, ACLS, DPW, CAS, STG, MOT, LBRT, ERICY, HDL, SCM, SHOO, CVM, SHM, CCC, CDO, LTD, MOT, FNV, MPS, KGC, SMTL, DHC, GTW, RCG, SHM, BGEN, EWG, EWU, EMF, TRAC, GCR, KRY, PMD, AEN, NCI, LOJN, NSC, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, DVN ?, KRB, EMR, TD, FTN, NMG, WFT, NOI, UTI. ?, CEC, EGN, AMRI,
TJX, CXIPY, SWBT, NTRS, MAPS, NCBC, HNCS, MENT, to, CYN, LEH,
LMT, SDS, KRB, TYC, ECLP, ZION, CHKP, CHRW, AVIR, CMVT, IDPH, EMLX, PKI, CTX, TEVA, TRIH, HGIC, HBC, MEL, RDA, STT, DV, IMPH, from recent past NL's....again, note still smaller list....and many are already down, dig ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Utilities,
Insur./Mtg., Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?),
Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell,
Computer/Internet/Software/Services, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs
ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside
follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES