1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) note renewed strength in Gold stocks.... 2) do not ignore the now plethora of Techs which are gonna be buys again after pullbacks....see sec. (6).... 3) as long as DJUA stays above 290, it can rise as expected.... 4) 6-mo. T-bill yield at 1.655 % is lowest since 1958.... i.e., depositing $ 9.920., gets you get-this - only another $ 80. in 6 full further months....hardly even worth doin' ? ....5) some unexpected-by-the-95 % late strength among Techs, Thu., hmmm....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) another S.T.-only bearish sign for already-rallied software stocks, as in 1/10 L.A.T. headline (late, only after rises in stocks, as usual, right ?), "major software stocks surge on SAP outlook....fuels optimism that sector is pulling out of slump", is a beautiful example of my "PSYCLE sm" pettern again, yes ? ORCL, SAP, SEBL, RATL, BEAS, MSFT, PSFT, ITWO, MANU, mentioned, are of course, already up a bunch off the predicted-first-by-me-herein-for-you lows of Sept., yes ? anyway, after expected-by-me-first-only pullbacks, perhaps some will double-bottom again ?, but, I added some of these already as S.T. puttables....as usual, I will likely be correct, helping people, and the finl. media, wrong....hurting millions of unsuspecting investors....the pattern rarely changes....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) big article recent L.A.T., "A Giddy China in a mood to Buy....the public and govt. are splurging on things", has mostly propaganda about how China was/is supposedly 'insulated relatively' from terrorist effects, and has tons of money to spend, but WE know their export markets (Japan, U.S., duh) are falling a bit, and their domestic growth as well, in reality....but it did mention they ordered, and are going to need to order, tons of airplanes/jets from BA, etc.... 2) while the finl. Media overreports ENE stuff, recent WSJ article did point out how huge banks aided and abetted their rise and fall....so what else is new....but they take the risk....and most-often deserve the rewards when correct.... 3) I am noticing too many articles on growing Energy supplies, in the winter (get it ?), and while their stocks are pulling back, few are breaking last lows.... 4) normally we eschew fundamentals, but heard analyst on CNBC, Fri. 9:26, who actually said PFE, a 'drug' co. stock, could be targeted as an - get this - asbestos damage problem....he said he sold all his portfolio positions, and inferred biggish downside risk...hmmm....I give him credit, he's certainly the first/only guy around to talk like that here....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) the news suurounding the 'accounting shanigans' in the Enron case, and the SEC (contributors to it, of course, but i digress), proves once again, a major tenet of my "PSYCLE sm", as taught for decades by me and in my Booklets and educational material....and, of course, we see that the accounting profession is going police itself, still....gee, no conflict of interest there (re-read my booklets)....yeah, right.....the pattern rarely changes.... 2) as most all Media and analysts panned its new 'i-mac', note pop in AAPL stock....hah....and, similarly but conversly, ASBC and MSFT and LE and CBRL all raised their guidance and 'beat the street' eps, yet their stocks fell, as only I gave them 2 U herein as puts from recent highs....more proof of my "PSYCLE sm", so what else is new....
3) more L.T. good news for longside bulls, as, Fri., Comstock Funds, who became (in)famous in the 1990's by going, and remaining short (their funds are/were over-famous for most always going short, often with no stops, dgms), announced a newly bearish stance, S.T. and L.T., in stocks, on CNBC, 8 am....some of their M. Funds actually fell -50 % to -90 % (yup, true), over a few years not that long ago ! in which case, why does CNBC choose to promote them, over many other much better people out there ? the pattern rarely changes....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) watch out, as I heard the Airline-hiring-govt.-guy for new securitycrap at airlines, forward....what a load of verbiage....I fear even more for us all....he made it 'sound' like these new hirees are Marines or something....just more proof of my opinion of most all Govt. people and stuff, ay ? ....2) have you read very recently, again, that the predicted-by-me-first-herein when the 95 % and most all other analysts/economists said those known-by-me-as-nonexistent-but-reported-endelessly-as-real 'U.S. govt. budget surplusses', are now giving way already to deficits again ? I rest my case....and none of those misleading immoral ignorant people are culpable for their output which damages millions of people ? dgms....the only possible good thing (?) was that, in the last 4 years, those supposed surplusses went almost exclusively (according to rep. Chris Cox) to "reducing federal indebtedness by $ 500 B"....really ? then how come their spending (especially in some areas of question) continued/continues to rise ?
3) hearing all those analysts who said we had an 'energy plant shortage' near the top last year, are now saying there are plans for too many companies to build too MANY plants, forward....inferring a 'glut', which normally would translate to lower prices for people, yes ? if so, then how come MY gas & elec. bills amlunts are rising and remain much more than they used to be ? ....4) just interesting, but evidently, 'initial unemployment claims' in the USA, fell to 380 K people last week, down from 414 K expected, and was the lowest figure since last July....great work, economists, anticipating the end of the world, ay ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better,
and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains, 1 more Longs (plus several 'balances'), and, 5 more Puts:
1/2 pos. calls TSS (19 to 23) for 90% G....all puts MMM (120 to 100) for VQ 66% Gain....1/2 pos. puts BAC (64+ to 60+) for Q 33% G....1/2 pos. puts APD (48+ to 43) for VVQ 50% G....bal. calls TG (16++ to 19-) for 60% G....1/2 pos. puts QQQ (42+ to 39 or so) for VVQ 33% G....1/2 pos. puts ITT (52+ to 47+) for Q 40% G....
and/but, longs, ANAD, NNDS, CIEN, GSK, BTY ny, HBIO, F. ?, TERN (7+ to 9+ to 7), CLTK (11 to 14 to 11-) ?, and, puts, PSA, MTH ny, CSTR, SFG, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. ABMD @ 14+, 1/2 pos. ANEN @ 14+, 1/3 pos. BR @ 33, 1/3 pos. FLM @ 16 1/2, 1/2 pos. TEX @ 16, 1/3 pos. BRW @ 8+ ?, 1/3 pos. CYGN @ , 1/3 pos. INET @ 8-, 1/2 pos. TLD @ 16+, 1/4 pos. PCYC @ 5/8 ?,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
1/3 pos. KO @ 44, 1/2 pos. NTT @ 15+, 1/2 pos. CIMA @ 28+ again, 1/3 pos. MOT @ 13+, 1/2 pos. VIGN @ 4-, 1/2 pos. BDAL @ 15, 1/3 pos. AOL @ 29++, 1/2 pos. SGP @ 33++, 1/3 pos. NDE @ 22+, BTY @ 34+ ?, 1/3 pos. GX @ , 1/3 pos. ITCD @ 0.90, CCR @ 40, BOY @ 7+, 1/3 pos. NXY @ 18+ bms, RIGL 4 5/8, 1/2 pos. TEO @ 5.65 eh, PBCT @ 21-, VSAT @ 12++, 1/3 pos. UHS @ 38+, CLTK opb ?, SPOT @ 20, TFS @ 14.... "buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, KTC, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
I try
to give them alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones):
1/3 pos. AXL @ 22+,
"Repeats": OMC @ 90-, BBBY @ 35, 1/2 pos. HOTT @ 34++ ?, 1/2 pos. LEG @ 23, RJR @ 60, 1/2 pos. UPC @ 45+, 1/2 pos. PEP @ 49+, 1/3 pos. MTH @ 53+, 1/2 pos. BCS @ 135, 1/2 pos. UST @ 35, CBRL @ 30+, 1/2 pos. FDO @ 30+, 1/2 pos. MSFT @ 70, 1/3 pos. VFC @ 40, ACV @ 45+, 1/2 pos. COST ?, 1/2 pos. VCI. no ?, SKYF @ 20+, 1/2 pos. FTN @ 36++, LIZ @ 53+, CFBX @ 26, SPH @ 28-, ASBC @ 35++, UDR @ 14+, IWV @ 65-, IVV @ 117-, 1/2 pos. ICBC @ 24+, UDR @ 14+, AMG @ 72++ ?,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, PSFT, STZ, AXL, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in
sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", TLCP, CNC, KM, MDCC, PCOP, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PSFT, GPT, IP, CTAS ?, LE, ONE, TCF, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
many more big winners for you....you're welcome:
ANEN 16.54 up 2.14, KEYN 8.72, 10.50, FLM 17.76 up 1.36, PDG 12.41 up 0.76, TSS 23.30 up 1.66, TEX 16.60 up 0.60, CIMA 30.42 up 1.83, SHPGY 38.2 up 1, FAF 19.80, CVAS 7.25, DPL 25.06, KO. 43.50 (B), 45.35, up/higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
AVGN 9.7 pb, TFS 14.25 bopb, ACPW 6-, ACTU 5.57, 6.23, MC 12.5, MICC 10.3 bopb, AMCC 10.50, NTT 15.29, 15.60, VIGN 4.50, ANEN 15.62, VLCCF 16.96 pb, PSEM 13.62 pb, BDAL 15.24 pb, SIEB 4.53 bopbo, ALL 32 pb, AMCC 10.4 pb, CPST 4.19, 4.57, FLM 16.90, Q. 12.5 pb, AYE 34.73, SCOR 26.5 bopb, SPOT 21, 20 (B), 21....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
F. 14.00, 14.66 (S) ?, SGP 33.86 ?, MOT 13+ (B), 14.15, VRA 1.26 pb, 1.40, 1.25, CLTK 10.34 (S) ?, BTY 34.4 (B), 35.75, TFS 14.05 (B), TEO 5.55 (B), 5.97, OLOG (B), UTHR 9.15, VSAT, ZIXI. 5.53, 5.75, UFI. 7.43 dn, CVAS 6.99, NXY 19.26, 18.72 (B), FON 18.15 (S) ?, KANA, VRSN 33.62, 35.32, 33.17 ?, UAL, LNUX, UHS 38.9 pb, GX 0.53 ?, PSEM, HMT, PHI, IFC, PDG, WFII, KFY 9.8 (sos), CIMA 29.15, 30.15, BTY 34.15 (S) ?, PDG 11.72 pb, DSS 9.71 dn, CHRS, CHINA, and,
most all Techs and rallied stocks, must follow-through up further....above their bases and resistance highs of this week....and/or, above their previously-broken-below-before-Sept. 11th-levels....might KCS, GSK, be 'fobd's ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
MMM -9 (S), BCS -3, OMC -3 1/2, LIZ -3, KSS -2, RJR -3, MSFT -3, BBBY -3 1/4, ACE -1 1/2, NSM -1 1/2, AXL -1, ITT -1 1/4, HOTT -1 1/2, FTN, QQQ, FDO, TECD -1 1/4, BAC +1 1/4, -1 1/2, IVV -3, IWV -2, UST, APD -1 1/2, UB +3/4, -1 3/4, RCI. -1, HD, UDR, FO, down/further since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
Utilities, Entertainment/Leisure, Retail/Apparel, Cable, Brokers, Foreign depr. stocks - like Japan, Agriculture-oriented, Golds, Telecom, Steel, Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, and Precious and other Metals, some Transportation/Airlines, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds, at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note,
obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many
others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note,
re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this
NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read
sec. (1) above), added these:
KM, LU, TIXX, INET, CYGN, NXTV, TXCC, CSAR, TLD, KCS, CWP, RCNC, MLNM ?, FA, WXS ?, to, KO, CCI, NTT, DTE, ANAD, AETH, NUAN, U, SONS, TKIOY, CNU, FAX, MOT, SATC, ADCT, AKAM ?, HNCS, HGSI, PCYC, DLEX, FLM, CED, WR, PCOP ?, F no ?, CNC, KME ?, PB, FDRY, WGRD ?, ENWY, GEMP, BCON, MDCC, BSTE, KCS, KEI., HIT ?, BRW, AMCC eh, HYDL, STOR, RIGL, ANEN, SCAI, WHES ?, ATML, PLXS ?, PNW, ALS, FLA, TEX, ACTU, BDAL, ELON, TLCP, STLW, UCFC, TRMB, RT, BOY, MTP ny, RMBS opbo, AVNX opbo, JDSU obpbo, CTS, EX, CLTK, DCEL ?, ALL eh, NGEN, MFDE, HYSQ, CEI, SLR eh ?, UHS ?, CNH, MCD, VRSN ?,
as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy/Alt./Svcs.: BR, RRC, VLCCF, NXY, OLOG, KCS ?,
some Biotechs, Drugs, and health-relateds: SGP, GERN, CIMA, SCOR, OSTE, SHPGY, DMN, ABMD, GERN, CYGN, (AVGN, UTHR, already up),
among Telecom-Internet-Satellite-Commun.-orienteds: PACW, TLCP, AOL, CWP, TLD, NTT, TEO, NNDS ?, SPOT, BLS, GX, BTY, SCMR, VIGN,
Utils.: PEG, AYE, NU, DTE, (others are already up),,
financial-orienteds: CCR, ALL, FAF, TSS, CNC ?, NDE, TKOIY, INET,
and, some more Foreign stocks and Telecoms,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, WSM, OMC, CTAS, ONE, FO, ETM, IP, GPT ?, LE, JCP, TCF, YUM ?, to, BBBY, MEDI, PEP, NSM, FDO, GTK, PH, UST, UPC, CLX, HOTT, LEG, KSS, ATVI, CBRL, EFTD, MSFT, MNTR ?, KSHS, UOPX, INTU ?, VFC, TECD, PGR, ADRX, AMGN, RCI, APOL ?, SMTC, ICBC, COST no ?, IFF, ACV, IBC, MTH, GCI, FBC, IMCL ?, FTN, STW ?, SKYF, UDR, BCS, TOO, APPB no ?, MATR, NHP, AMG, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: added, extended Building/Residential/Commerical-relateds, Semiconductor-relateds, and maybe Chem. soon, to,
Extended: Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Peripherals, Security.... Toys/Leisure/Video/Games, temp. staffing, restaurants, Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Insur. Brokers/Banks/Mtg./S & L's/Loans, Homebuilders/Construction/Electrical, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES