1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) even though I was the first/only to give out last years' bottoms in Oil Service stocks, then out with big Gains, and then, initial Puts gains after 1999's S.T. tops for you herein, I already acknowledged NOT having predicted cash Crude's rise to $ 29. recently....Q, S, loss in a couple of those stocks recently of no financial consequence....but, CAM, DOV, TDW, given yo here, have still not yet made new highs, dig ? also, see a 9-year-high in heating Oil futures, which is interesting, since, last year, all the 'experts' said warmer winters and bad foreign economies and lower demand would keep that price low 'for the forseeable future', remember ? Now, Bob Pisani, Tues., CNBC, 10:05 am, said, "why are Energy prices up ? because it's cold in the northeast !" O.K., but aren't temperatures HIGHER than normal for winter, in many other areas of the country ? don't get me started on that illogical historical/seasonal argument.... re-read my "Scenarios" booklet.... 2) I am, again, the first/only to suggest extended Telecom stocks, including Foreigns, as Puttables, like, ALA, DT, NT, TEF, TV, etc., as 'the experts' now begin to go super-bullish on Foreign stocks, too late, as usual, as I recently was also the first/only to suggest herein....another potentially nice example of I.G. Rotation, yes ? are you learning ? ....3) I have no idea how or why many Semiconductor-related stocks are breaking out/up again....While I was the first/only to have given them out as depressed buys, in mid-1998, when 'those who are bullish now, hated them' (many at single-digit prices, twice, the last 3 times they formed L.T. bottoms, for you herein), I was wrong in thinking they had formed stage 4 tops technically recently, for some Q, S, losses of little consequence in a properly diversified portfolio....I now have no opinion on them.... 4) I am finding more depressed "Food, Restaurant, Apparel -related" stocks for you.... again, all the analysts who loved them at their 1999 highs, hate them now, as well....a decent sign, forward, sentiment-wise for these ? they should do fine for us, but have no 'sexiness', compared to the parabolics, but will be much safer when the parabolics correct....
5) while I was near perfect (and the first/only) in giving you the DJ. Utility Avg. as a S.T. 'EVB' recently, our ED and CPL broke, so had Q, S, losses in them ....no biggie....perhaps the 'gas utilities' strength overcame 'elec. utilities' weakness....but we gave you the DJUA itself well, anyway.... 6) I told you that, again, the Paper stocks would disappoint....why CNBC continues to be in love with, and overreporting, this I.G., is beyond me.... 7) while we took a couple of real small losses in Golds (after being near-perfect several times previously herein for you), note we continue to recommend accumulating the 'cheapies' with retained base formations....if you have NO "golds', here, perhaps begin to buy a diversified package to put away down here, with close stops....do NOT turn off to these.... 8) some 'depressed Retail' stocks are cracking, as I said, and some still need technical work, but section (6) issues remain on the O.K. list.... 9) I know we hate trading on such things, but some Banks/Financials, like, FTN, ONE, SVRN, FNV, CIT, etc., may become takeover stories again down the road, currently depressed....just to put in back of our brains....I gave you other depressed Bank, Insur., Broker, stocks in section (6) anyway....some of these are not ready yet, chart-wise, of course....but some are....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Tues., showing a chart of "HIFN" negatively (but note its potential BASE here, as usual, CNBC's Joe Kernan said, "strap yourself in if you are going to own that one from here"....what the heck does THAT mean ? Remember, CNBC had its pres. on near its parabolic top, yes ? The time to have said that, Joe, was in last Summer, when I specifically gave HIFN as a Put herein for you, and you said nothing negative about it....see its chart ? ....2) Tue., 9:10 am, CNBC's Martha McCallum said, "all the Airline stocks have been under tremendous pressure, what with energy prices rising for months now...." Excuse me ? exactly where did hse get that INcorrect statement from ? almost none are lower than their lows from even 12 months ago, yes ? and most all are HIGHER now, than they were 18 months ago, when Oil was $ 10-15. a bbl., vs. today's $ 29. bbl., yes ? again, expecting financial reporters to actuall view price charts and know patterns, and really help investors often, etc., remains futile.... 3) Tues., 10 am, CNBC reporter Liz Clayman misleadingly, sensationalizingly, said, "their earnings announcement is sending shares of MSFT sharply lower...." Since when is just a little 4 % drop, 'sharply lower' ? Then, 10:05 am, McCallum incorrectly said, "MSFT is the biggest loser on the NASDAQ today..." Huh ? talk about lack of perspective....MSFT had RISEN from 84 to 115 lately, yes ? gosh, even "HON" fell a lot more, %-wise, yet she did not mention that one, dig ? recall, I specifically gave you HON as a successful Put herein, in its easily-seen rolling top....when 'the experts' loved it, in a report on CNBC, yes ?
4) CNBC's Bob Pisani, Wed., 11:25 am, showing Russell 2000 index at new high (discussed by me earlier herein), trying (in vain, I should add) to illustrate smaller-cap stocks causing that, chose to show chart of "PTEN", saying, 'see how well it has done in the last month...." Excuse me ? just 'in the last month ?" He showed a one-year-past chart....and chose an extended Oil Service stock, late, of couse....gee, it was only $ 3., a year ago (when I was giving these depressed stocks out herein as buys, and "the experts" hated them, but I digress), and now it is much higher at $ 15., so, as usual, is HAD already done well, UNTIL recently, when, by my reckoning, it is 'only' up a small further percentage, yes ? But you never mentioned it down there, did you ? how misleading and 'trying to create a story improperly' is that ? .....5) once again, Thu., CNBC gal reporters try to report another in a long line of 'record high (assumed negative as reported by them, but not in historical reality) U.S. trade deficits', again, supposedly painting a negative scenario for U.S. Please re-read my "Media" booklet also ....such fundamental items have just rarely been of directly-applicable-future-price-predictive-value ("DAFPPV"), as taught you a long time ago....just another in a long line of items NOT to let affect one's trading choices and decisions....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) note, Tues./Wed., more Banks, Brokers, and Airlines, reported much higher-than-expected-by-the-overpaid-analysts earnings, yet their stocks did not pop, and remain well below their months-ago highs (predicted here, as you know, BTW)....so much for the generally misplaced notion that "eps" can be automatically "linked" to stock price moves in some consistently applicable manner from certain chart formations(re-read my "Scenarios" booklet)....anyway, this is normal "PSYCLE sm" behavior after tops and declines....I still like some of these stocks, in section (6) below.... 2) on Wall St. Week last Fri., they loved "ALLR", as they did at its recent top, even though it fell 33% already, and lowering their future fundamental estimates.... 3) CNBC had pres. of "UIS" on, Tues., 10:25 am, who was asked by caller-in, 'why is stock underperforming', to which he replied, that, "in 1997, we lost $ 1 billion, and last year we earned $ 500 MM, quite a turnaround" ....But the reporter didn't mention how, when I recommended UIS in its beautiful L.T. depressed base, in 1996-97, in $ single-digits, NO one liked it, and, in 1999 at around $ 45., with its rolling top formation, and many insider sales occuring, as I mentioned in this NL, everyone loved it, see its L.T. chart pattern ? looking extremely neutral here, another example of "PSYCLE sm" chart-plus-sentiment signals...
4) Wed., 8:35 am, CNBC had pres. of our "DPH" on, with gal interviewer, who asked, "why is your stock not reflecting your good and improving fundamentals" ? To which I would reply, of course, "but it IS up from 14+ to 18+ since I gave it, and other depressed "Trans." stocks, out, herein, as a basing buy, in December, recently hitting its 200 DMA, for a big % Gain in calls or on margin, in a very short time, more than its earnings have risen, right ? Also, 'automotive-type-stocks' tend NOT to sell at huge PE's, historically, which neither person mentioned on CNBC, as they could/should have....the pattern never changes....but YOU are learning, yes ? ....5) with "CMB" earnings killing Wall Street's "overpaid-and-should-have-known-this-because-they-almost-live-at-the- company" analysts' estimates, yet, its stock (two different things, right ? because 'fundamentals and 'eps' cannot automatically be 'linked' to stock price moves, right ?) remains below its levels from months ago....where, remember, I gave it out to you herein as a Put near $ 90....Now, with its sideways intermediate-term continuation pattern potential support around $ 70, is still not worth a big trade, even for options....but it proves again, how fundamentals, and the Media, are little or no help, much of the time, compared to chart and behavior sentiment patterns....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) Putnam Funds, in a shockingly misleading item, is offering a supposedly "insured" product,as "protection against a big L.T. market decline", but it is actually nothing more than a Variable Annuity insurance policy....it doesn't covers further price value gains if M.F. values rise....it only pays off down the road, could be years later, when/if one dies after one's M.F. holdings' value declines....But they are marketing it as if it was a "put' option on one's M.F. holdings....once again, just another marketing ploy to hopefully capture some unsuspecting investors.... 2) Fideltity Magellan fund, a phenomenal 1980 to mid-1990's story, added TXN and MOB, removed WCOM, recently....CNBC reported it was up "only" + 24 % in 1999 (underperfomring, actually) Remember when I was the first/only to predict a relative-performance-top in this huge Fund, in my NL's back then, in 1995, when its famous and excellent manager was 'ubiquitous and worshipped', and therefore fulfilled stage 4 himself ? This was similar to my being the first/only to have correctly called a/the S.T.-at-least top, in Warren Buffett, similarly, last year, right ? Lesson: 'individuals' fortunes also often conform to "PSYCLE sm" stages, using hubris and sentiment signals, just FYI, making/saving you money at times....
3) Wed., 8:25 am, CNBC had on Fadel Gheit, Fahnstock's Energy stock analyst, who, like me, was wrong, calling for a drop towards $ 20-22. on Crude Oil, two months ago, which he now reiterated....but, at least they air the contrary view.... 4) Merrill just went super-bullish on "MUSE", very, very late, as you can see, so watch for top to form soon....I observe many more B-firms seemingly capitulating, and 'beginning to add, and/or go bullish on' many parabolic, previously sexy stocks, all of a sudden....most, only when/after they 'beat the street's eps estimates'....the pressure on their already-overpaid analysts and firms must be real....hey, I would not have bought any of those stocks, even near their '98-'99 lows, either....Imagine how big the coming correction is going to be among many of them....NO one out there recalls the now-seemingly-insignificant correction these kinds of stocks had in the springs-summers of 1998 and 1999....at those times, the -50 % drops were huge, and caused many daytraders to be eliminated, remember ? Now we have the most V.S.T. traders existing, ever....and the highest number of frustrated investors ever, as well....
e) more general items proving why one should ignore 95 %
of everything else out there: 1) Monday, the "Worldwatch Institute" said, "the exceptional increase in wealth of Internet-associated activities are pobscuring problems of global environmental and economic hardships elsewhere." ....2) Tues., Payden & Rygel M. Funds' new commercial says there are over 47,000 mutual funds, worldwide....is this true ? sounds real high to me....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options
existed....
calls QTRN (18+ to 32) for Q 300% Gain....bal. calls MCK (20+ to 27-) for VQ 150% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BBC (6++ to 10+) for Q 100% G....bal. calls ACL (16 to 20+) for 85% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CKR (6- to 8+) for VQ 80% G....calls ABF (21 to 26+) for 111% G....bal. stock TOK (2++ to 5+ to 3+) for small % G.... stk.on.mgn. TRL (6+ to 7+ to 6++) for small % G....note: last NL's sale of PIR was a mistake/typo, hopefully you were unaffected....stay in it for now....
and/but, longs, CRRS, ED, CPL, ZQK, BLC, SHW, IBC ?, and, puts, ELNT, WFT, ESV, CVG, GLW, MMPT, AMGN, CHKP, TGNT, AFFX, MERQ, ZOMX, XLNX ?, NT ? EDS ? (for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....most all puts lately have been "Semis/Compu./Tech." stocks....but still been too many of them lately....usually quite rare (but not until lately)....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times....again, "cutting, for real small losses" when necessary, which never hurts us much....in fact, they can actually help your 'psyche' over time, by keeping 'larger losses' away, yes ? Remember, more than a few of these "?" sales, are likely to revalidate, both longs and puts, driving us crazy, regardless....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
1/2 pos. ASHW @ 4+, 1/2 pos. BTX @ 9+, CCH @ 0.175, 1/2 pos. DLX @ 26+, JEF @ 19+, ORI. @ 12+, SIF @ 7-,
"Repeats": ADM @ 12-, AIN @ 14+, ASI. @ 6+, AZC @ 0.70, BAMM @ 8+, BGO @ 9/16, BIS @ 1.00, BWL/A @ 7, CAN @ 12+, CAU @ 0.25, CHB @ 8-, DAY @ 0.06, DDC @ 18, DIR @ 13+, DROOY @ 1 9/16, ECO @ 1 5/16, EGR @ 15+, FAF @ 12-, FE @ 22+, FIX @ 7-, FLE @ 19+, FTR @ 3-, GRL @ 7++, GV @ 5/16, HA @ 2.06, IBC ?, JBM @ 3--, JBOH @ 7++, KM @ 9+, LAF @ 26+, LWN @ 7/16, MHR @ 2 5/8, MSN @ 9/16, NCI. @ 10-, NHI. @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OH @ 2 11/16, OO @ 5++, PDG @ 10-, RBK @ 8+, RDL @ 3-, RDRT @ 4+, RPD @ 2 1/8, RTHM @ 26+, SEI. @ 6+, SKS @ 15+, SMU @ 5+, SVE @ 5++, TGI. @ 23+, TWA @ 3-, TXM @ 2 7/16, WLV @ 13+, Z. @ 6+...."buy (only) low", right ?
For those of you with patience, understanding the patterns, where suitable, for L.T., ITM calls options only, diversified only, these seem the best saucer bases here, stocks over $ 10 : in no particular order: DDC, FLS, ADM, FLE, LAF, FAF, EGR, LYO, ORI, just F.Y.I. ...there are plenty of nice bases now, in the lists above, check them out....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, XOMA, GPT, EGGS, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) APW @ 36-, AXP @ 157, CSCO ?, DGX @ 31++ ?, DOV @ 46++, DSCP @ 40, DT @ 73, MWD @ 137-, NOK @ 182, SILI. @ 139+, TV @ 67, WON @ 73,
"Repeats": AIG @ 114, ANSR @ 36 ?, BBSW @ 120, CCN @ 72+, CLB @ 21+, CMC @ 34-, EDS ?, ERICY @ 66++, GETY @ 51+, HHH @ 181+, HWP @ 114+, JNPR @ 119, MGM @ 24+, NYF @ 28+, PIOS ?, SYY @ 40, TDW @ 36, XLNX @ 49- ....
with most of these Puttables, we are assuming "head & shoulders" tops are forming....
note: last NL's "?" questionmarked potential Puts buys, were because, normally, I would have had a couple of hours of market action, to judge, before I publish the NL, Monday, but market was closed, as you know....but I still wanted to share those with you so you could see their chart patterns....
and/but, took, GMST, SLB, CAM, RAZF, DSPG, AIRO, RIMM, ORTL, CSCO, SUNW, SANM, MGIC, SDLI, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....this cleans up the list in section (7) more, for you....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", CBJ, PXD, XOMA, F., IKN, BPP, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, RHAT, AXP, VIP, ARBA, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
hey, you are getting still more nice winners, read list carefully, thoroughly, and VIEW charts to learn patterns: IRSN 4 up 1 7/16, QTRN 34 up 11 1/2 (S), LB 3 1/2 up 1 1/8, CCH 0.218 up 0.050, WDC 6 3/8 up 1 7/8, VCR 3 up 7/8, CVD 13 7/8 up 3 1/8, RTHM 32 1/4 up 5 5/8, SEI. 8 13/16 up 1 1/4, IMG 9 3/4 up 1 1/2, PIR 8 1/4 up 7/8, URI. 22 5/16 up 3 1/16, ATHM 44 7/8 up 4 1/2, ADM 13.44 up 1, ABF 26 7/8 up 2 3/8 (S), SKS 16 3/16 up 1, BR 34 7/8 up 2 3/8, JEF 20 11/16 up 1 3/16, ORI. 13 5/16 up 11/16, LAF 27 1/2 up 1, MUEI. 13 5/16, CCC 7 1/8, SAMC 6 11/16, TMD 5 7/8, RDL 3 5/8, ASI. 7 1/4, MAG 8 5/8, BWL/A 7.44, CTX 24 1/8, OCN 6 3/8, GRL 9 5/8, KM 10 3/16, BMC 5 11/16, GAP 28 15/16, NHR 9 1/4, FAF 12 13/16, OO. 5 11/16, GV, higher, since last time here....note how QTRN rose to is 200 DMA (S)....and, BXM reached its previous two 'base' resistance areas, around 27, see it ?
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: VBAC 3 up 3/8, HUM 9 up 3/4, HOT 26 1/8 up 1, DAL +3, -2 1/2, DDS 20 9/16 up 1, LYO 11 1/2, GRL 9-, BBC 8 3/4, MAH, NHR, DIR 14.06 up 7/8, SQM 31 1/4 up 1, PZB 22-, ATHM 42-, NHI., MAH, PRD, VDC 1 1/4, HEB, PDG, MAT, SCIO, MUEI., TSN, ELNK 48, LPX 13+, RDRT, EC, TOK, RPD, SOI., AVL, HRC, OH, IM, FLE, NCI., LWN, SMU, TXM, WMI., GTN, FIX....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) TRL 7 1/2, then broke (S), Z., NHI., RTHM, JBOH, ECO, TOK, RPD, LMM, RBK, BBC, MCH, VGZ, PDQ, IBC, PDG, PMC, GTN, ALB, IM, FE, DIR, CHB, NHP, TVX....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
ARMHY -36, BBSW -37, INFA -15, WON -6, NOK -6, AXP -9, ALA -4 3/4, CCN -4, +2, -2, GETY -3 1/2, NYF -2 1/2, ERICY -2, MHP -2 1/2, DT -3 1/2, TV -3, SYY -2 1/2, MMM -2, APW -2, IMN -1 1/2, DSCP -1 1/2, CMC -1 1/4, CLB, lower since last NL....also, see LGTO 30- wow, LBRT, lower still....in another trend I mentioned to you recently herein, many insiders are now able to sell their previously-locked-up shares from their IPO....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (IMG, HUM, BDX, BEV, etc., more have bounced, up already)
Prec. Metals (CAU, PDG, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, CCH, longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
other emerging groups ?: "Cap. Goods/Mfrs.", "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, and, "Funeral" stocks down the road....
and, these REIT's, most also with real big potential Dividends ? (NHR, GLB,
NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, LTC, PDQ, CEI., GTA, ARI., JDN, KRC, AER, ALF, CBG, PAG, BPP, BTR, etc.) (also some Housing stocks, below)
"Transportation" (GT, LUV, MAG, DAL, PBY, TWA, up already ?)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, SKS, DDS, KM, S., GAP, HMY, RBK, BUR, OO, SRR, USV, some may need more work, technically, but likely to bottom)
Foods (WEN, EGR, FUN, ADM, etc.)
plus, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and, Mtg.-relateds, Financials/Insur./Banks, some depressed Internets, Energies, just below here,
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, ASHW, ORI., IDS, FPL, IEE, BIS, CIT, to, SMU, RDRT, LAF, TXM, MHR, EC, STS, DROOY, TVX, FOE, LWN, AIN, MAT, JOB, BWL/A, RDL, PMC, SFI., HIV, MSN, BMC, XCL, OCN, to,
also, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, IO, IKN, ABM, CMH, FNV, UNM, ENN, ARV, BPP, HMY, BGC, ESA, KWD, LUB, JEF, MNY, NAB, CGP, TEI, CCG, PCP, EX, TMG, SIF, to, HA, FMO, LEA, UH, OMI, PXD, NOW, ATHM, IBC, BWA, HPC, CHKE, GT, PBG, CMX, FUN, FTR, UCI, SVE, PTA, VDC, VX, CAN, AVL, TSK, LEN, NCI, STK, WSO, DLX, FAF, AVS, RT, FLE, TMD, NCS, SOI, LTV, NR, LYO, HLT, AW, GSR, BAMM, CTX, KRC, VFC, JBM, IM, NHR, SQM, MUEI, AIN, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and, note a few depressed Internet issues (!)....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
also note, how many of the "insider Buys" list I gave you, are bouncing...did you LOOK at any of their charts ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note, this list growing again, what does that tell you ?
* add, MUSE, DT, CCN, MDP, CMC, ALA, EDS, APW, AXP, EMC, TV, HWP, DOV, MHP, DT, VIP, ARBA, DGX, MWD, SYY, TEF, VIA, WON, OMC, BHC, QQQ, CC, FDRY, DSCP, GETY, FCST, DCLK, ZOMX, RHAT, RCCC, GILTF, DIGG, CHL, to, ARMHY, ERICY, NOK, INFA, DIGL, BCE, WMT, ANSR, MCLD, MAN, MMM, CLB, HHH, AIG, IMN, SLR, VSH, AMKR, ANAD, TDW, LCOS, MMPT, SCNT, MHP, NWS, CUBE, MU, HWP, MGM, CSGS, TSCC, AFCI., NT, MERQ, TFSM, JNPR, from recent past NL's,
and, as I gave you recently, are these topping soon ?: BRCM, ADAP, ERICY, DISH, CLRS, INFY, CTSH, CTXS, CMGI, CPWM, PRGS, ATML, VOX, SFE, AAPL, CAMP, SEBL, TIBX, TWTR, SILI, NTLI, ORCL, KING, CAMP, CNXT, ???
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service,
Wines/Liquors/beverages, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related,
Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing,
and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above
their patterns highs....
NEW: as a hopeful learning experiment, watch "MIR", which I gave you herein near its basing lows, last Fall, see it ? L.T. subscribers know, with a couple of Q, S, L's along the way, I have been Real good with Gaming stocks over the years, in both directions, so, note how MIR now seems REAL close to breaking out, into stage 2, above its flat 200 DMA resistance....when/if over 16., it could be gone, S.T. anyway, towards next upside resistance level around 20, maybe 22+ , dig ? too soon to tell, let's see how it acts, first....But, we only buy near lows, or 12-ish, but perhaps this one will illustrate what happens and how such issues enter the next stage sometimes, for your educational benefit....if it broke below 14, would negate the pattern, below its 50 DMA, see it ? remember, we are not attached to anything, and this is just one stock of many....Last, see if you can find others in this I.G., still in depressed formations....I gave you HLT also, at lows, yes ? enjoy,
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....