1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
New Thoughts: Although you know we NEVER try to "predict Indexes/Averages/the Market", here are my most Current "Market" Comments:

Note, we are having more difficulty finding tons of "gorgeous-looking" stocks, vs., say, in early December, meaning, as I have beeen saying, things are no longer as clear....which is no problem, since we have no PSY-chological weakness of "having to do something every day", etc. We continue to hold above-avg. cash positions, adding more Puttables and a few Long Buyables, below, in sec. (3) and (6) and (7)....

I have done MY job, since many long-siders had been "buyable" for weeks....no excuses....ditto for the Puts I have added, especially Internets....notice their now "lower-(right)double-tops", see them ? Isn't it fun being the first/only people to predict/catch such moves ? I already suggested where their drops might find initial support....while, Oil Service hangs in, as the Media continues to bash them, and their earnings fall....the patterns rarely vary....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and (5). Very clear sections.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) 1) am trying to make a case for many OIl Service stocks to NOT go all the way back down towards their lows again, but, instead, hold around recent pullback lows, as a "halfway range support", before breaking out anew, above recent highs....stay tuned....just a thought at this point, NOT a 'scenario'.... 2) re: Internet tops, note, mergers/takeovers occuring for "stock", not for cash, get it ? Just as happened around historical tops, in Biotechs, Gaming, and Airlines, in past years....and, as covered more fully in my "scenarios" booklet, it has always amazed me, how, supposedly sharp company people, insist on paying way more for stocks of companies they take over, than they could have paid, had they just bought their stock, when it was much lower, dig ? If they were that smart, shouldn't they have seen their future, months ago ? Would save billions, yes ? oh, and AMZN, which we just barely missed, hit 92, down from 200 already....I already told you about "PSYCLE sm" stages 4, 5, and 6, in earlier NL's, yes ? well ? are you learning ? no excuses.... 3) I hope you have noted the large % rises in many of our low-priced Health/Medical/Drug stocks, I was, again, the first/only to give out for you herein, in recent weeks....how many times have I suggested one have one stock in each of at least a few different I.G.'s....I have given you many of these, in sec. (3) and (6), for months now....

b) 1) L.A. Times front-page BIz. Sec. article, 1/17, James Flanigan, titled, "Telephones, technology, and opportunities for Growth", raved about many stocks like, all bells, telecom, telephone, communications, equipment, etc.-- all of which are already way, way up, since, say, 1994, and currently right at their highs-- as "still great opportunities right here"....I don't know....this article smacks of late Stage 3, early stage 4, to me....He specifically leads with, "several years ago, expert investor Jim Rogers said to stay away from the entire telephone ind. because deregulation would cause a competitive free-for-all with little profit for any companies." Don't get me started on J.R. The author closes with, "a great opportunity (now). You don't have to be an expert to see that." Well, Mr. reporter, anyone can take late stage 3 stocks, which YOU did not even remotely predict would rise when they were much lower, and tout them, "up here" ....but that's what always happens in the "PSYCLE sm" at this late stage, in your "late, reported super-bullishness". When reporters with not-good L.T. track records, jump on a late bandwagon, well, you know the rest.... 2) Wed. nite 20th, I attanded a big social/business function, and could not find anyone even remotely bearish....they all still love, MSFT, CSCO, DELL, LU, internet stocks, etc. As usual, it is likely that none will EVER sell, nor protect their positions....and, of course, not one person, had been investing/trading, very long....and No one had even the slightest inking of "cycles" in stocks or industry groups....nor knowledge that sometimes, they do come back to earth....These were all age 30-50, professional, nice people....'nuff said.3) cnbc's Larry Bauman, Thu., 9:40, actually reported how a major B-firm cautioned against "momentum trading", i.e., buying a stock, "solely because it has been rising, and/or has high relative strength" (their words, not his)....so I give L.B. some credit.... 4) a CNBC reporter gal, Thu. 10 am, said, "the U.S. trade deficit soared, as problems abroad continue to hurt U.S. companies".... hmmmm, is that why so many of the biggest companies in the world, have stock prices currently near all-time highs, up further lately ? NO "links" !!!

c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/ companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) Wed. 20th, govt. announces "housing construction starts" growing at fasteest rate since 1987-88, confirming my prediction of rising supply, into topping price rises in much res. R.E. ....2) Wed., 20th, Doubleclick reports eps, CNBC has its pres. on, 10:20 am, CNBC reporter says, "wow, DLCK rocketing up 20, to 108+", but neglects to say/show, that the stock remains below its recent intraday high....get it ? so we add the puts there, as pot. S.T. double-top ? ....3) Wed., 11 am, Mark Haynes, CNBC reporter, commenting on the recent renewed rise among big-name, high-priced NASDAQ stocks, said, "we may be doing a NASDAQ 3,000 show, before we do a Dow 10,000 show, soon." Their NASDAQ index is around 2,400.... 4) and Bob PIsani, Wed., 11 am, reporting in a very excited manner, on many big-name computer, hardware, software, telecom, etc., stocks, making all-time new highs, saying, "these stocks look absolutely terrific, no top in sight"....he also reiterated the relative weakness among Cyclicals, "after valiant efforts to break out of trading ranges recently"....gee, might he be wrong on both ends ?

5) Thu. 21st, 8:45, CNBC, interviewed the Pres. of "EFII." a stock I gave out in my booklets, and in the NL, when it formed a stage 1 base, around 14-15, only now, with its stock up at 40.....get it ? When it was low, no glowing interviews ....actually, when I was recommending it, the analysts all hated it, but you knew that....the reporter said, "a real blow-out quarter of earnings for you, yes ?" meaning: look out ? Then, cnbc's Bob O'Brien tried to talk it up further, but, EFII. barely got over $ 40. so far....too high already, right ? ....6) Thu., 21st, LGTO, a put I gave you herein, but just missed, came out with much-better-than- expected eps, way up, and/yet stock falls another 8 points....

d) more late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) KWHY-tv, Tue. 19th, 10 am, Don Wolanchuk, who has been continually bullish, for years, actually above avg. in his field, said he could see a break below DOW 8900 to scare everyone, then, way over 10000, then over 15000, etc. He said "onward and upward for the forseeable future"....He cited "no euphoria in Barron's recent roundtable, even semi-bearish comments", as a bullish sign....He also said, while I.I. reading shows 60 % bulls, the AAII reading is only 30 % bulls....he also cited the "split" market....just FYI....he has been too hot, too long, and may himself be in late stage 3..... 2) but, Wed., 20th, Investors Intelligence shows highest bulls 60.6 % since before the 1987 crash, and now down to 28.6 % bears, under 30% since before last 800-point drop in the Dow....get it ? ....3) B. Biggs and R. Acampora must be reading my NL, as they same out Thu. with cationary comments on Internet stocks....later than mine, but, then, they don't know what we know....and, in a related story, Thu., the Amex announced formation of an "Internet Commerce Stock Index" (ICX)....no content providers, no ISP's, just 'commerce' stocks....very late, as usual....another top sign for them.... 4) Mr. up-and-down Joe Granville has been on KWHY-tv more often recently, more and more bearish....he also must be reading my NL....

e) I just gotta say, how ill it makes me, to hear the Media say, all day, every day, "William Jefferson Clinton" every single time they mention the "trial", instead of just, "the president"....does this irk you also ? it should.... PSY-chologically, it smacks of the Media sensationalizing/emotionalizing the already ridiculous, wastful doings of politics and government....

As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/ suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2" sale....and, "css" means "covered previous short sale", where no puts options existed....