1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) well, the QQQ finally brokedown, as expected, for our puts, below the 38+ area, and actually may project down towards the 34+ area anyway, in steps ? ....2) just a potentially-exploitable quickie, as all the analysts who loved TYC at each high when I spcifically gave it 2 U herein as a put around 60, now dislike it again, on 'the bad news out there', as it forms another (triple ?) bottom in the near-40-ish area....hmmmm.... 3) interestingly, the "defensive index' with consumer, trans, aero/def., household, bev., ideas in it, actually looks higher.... 4) and many Biotechs, and Tech.-Techs, look beautifully buyable, after they finish in-media-res pullbacks....another good L.T. sign, as I have recently inferred....this is why sec. (6) list is growing, dig ?
5) note the reversal to Puttable, of several big-name Drug stocks....and a growing sec. (7) puttables list as well, in our continuing 'split' market, ay ? ....6) and do not ignore my you-heard-it-here--first call on some depressed Japan-oriented stocks...already have some Gains....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) in a rare valuable article, Jessica Talati, in Futures Mag, tries to explain the differences in fundamental and technical analysis, and proves my "PSYCLE sm" (again) along the way, even though she does not damn fundamentals at all (dgms), but shows no real examples, as I have over the years....for anyone anywhere to assume they can monitor, measure, get accurate figures about, every single, of even some, of the plethora of company, industry, national, intl., etc., fundamentals on anything, never mind weather, govt. stuff, is utter waste of time and resources, especially when one can quickly eaily discern at least 2/3 to 3/4 of all future moves and current patterns to be exploited, often at little cost as well.... 2) Tue., in a new low in ignorance and misleading, CNBC's Obrien/Bauman, 9:45, talked about companies which are - get this - "not exposed to the economy", as supposedly an argument for buyting cyclical stocks....dgms.... Gee, exactly which companies are not exposed to the economy ? amazing, huh....and they get overpaid fopr such drivel ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) a new semi-useless book (dgms), "Toward rational exuberance: the evolution of the modern astopck market", suggests that no 'market time with a supposedly high historical PE" can be 'overpriced', if that PE level, or index price level, is exceeded thereafter....citing "the market before the crash of 1987 was not overpriced, nor in the 1999-2001 period", which is just weird and wrong, but at least he mentions sectors finally just a little bit at the end....he expects the S & P's PE ratio to "continue its secular increase, even if, say, the NASDAQ's index price never makkes it back up to 5,000", which, again, is useless, helps nothing and no one, and is itself irrationally exuberant....tell that to the trillions of dollars in losses, real people had during 1987+ and 2000+....a lot of dough can be, and is, and has been, lost, I say, in the meantime/during wrenching declines along the way, yes ? making this book kinda ridiculous....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) I have been receiving Bear, Stearns research for a while, and, gosh, they are no different from all the others - buying only high/late, selling or going negative only after big drops and/or near lows, no stops, almost no technical chart pattern aid, and often liking what I liked at bottom, only higer, and vice-versa....'nuff said, but perhaps I will be able to help you by fading their stuff, forward, so I thank them in advance.... 2) recent Multex NL, as usual, is late to the move, citing, "the news just keeps on getting worse for thw Wirless sector, downward spiral, etc." - but of course, we know better, and look to buy more of the depressed basers again soon, and even get more takeovers.... 3) kinda shame on Louis Navallier who actually recently headline-grabbed, with, "is Cisco the next Enron ?" oy.
e) more general, political, misreported items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) I mentioned 'initial claims for unemployment' falling last time, from 441 K to 384 K, here....well, adjusted for 'seaonailty' (re-read my booklet !), turns out they actually ROSE, and from 636 K to 760 K ! not only different direction, but also way bigger numbers....are U still trying to employ govt. figures as DAFPP factors ? why ? ....2) also, unexpected/unpredicted by anyone out there, including me, evidently, the Enron craziness created very high trading transactions and volume on many stock and commodities and exchanges in Dec., actually helping many entities surrounding this industry, actually making many companies money....see ? there are always two sides to every coin, as I have taiught forever.... 3) and, only after more debacles than I can recount here, decades too late, now, Govt. and Corp. Amer. is mulling changes/% limits in the "amounts within its own pension plans, that company can/will allow their employees to invest (sic) in their own companies' stock".....as with most all such laws, this is B.S. and unnecessary.....all the millions of employees have to know, is my "PSYCLE sm" - and additionally valuable pattern recognition common sense, stops, diversification, no emotion, perspective, IG rotation - hey, that's my "PSYCLE sm"....
4) Arthur Andersen tried to defend its' (many say) immoral and unethical conflict-of-interest (but not admitted) behavior with ENE (and likely, tons of other controlled comapnies, but I digress), that, "the amt. ENE paid us was just a tiny fraction of their, and our, revenues", proves more of my "PSYCLE sm" tenets....next.... 5) this proves my thoughts even more: recent LAT article on ENE, mentioned that, unbelieveably, some stock certificates for ENE stock, readily available, and near worthless, have actually been ssold/bought on EBAY, for hundreds of times their current value ! (gosh, why not just buy one share down here for next to nothing ?) just shows the ignorance and stupidity among sectors of our great land, especially where financial/investing stuff is concenred....I again rest my case.... 6) while I still think he's not as terrible as he could be, which is something of a slight positive for a politician, I am losing some faith in Pres. Bush, because his recent tomes have bee talking out of both sides of issues, his rhetoric is saying juxtapositional things "we should be doing for our people", that are incompatable with "what corporations should be getting" from govt. - can't be done, his rhetoric Tues. in speech involved mutually exclusive items....I helped teach great economics at a major univ., and was an expert at one time, and, believe me, when one of the 3 parties involve win, others lose, and vice-versa....so he is, in actuality, an energy-stated guy, who expounds nothing but normal 'words' for a person in his station....nothing new, not much special...I am losing interest in his words already....next.... 7) and trying to even listen to Rumsfeld and Cheney were, as I mentioned early on, herein, has always been just impossible....yuck....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better,
and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains, 0 more Longs (plus several 'balances'), and, 4 more Puts:
1/2 pos. puts IDPH (72 to 60) for 66% G....1/2 pos. puts NSM (35- to 26++) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts ACE (40+ to 35++) for Q 50% G....1/2 pos. puts UB (39 to 35-) for VQ 33% G....
and/but, longs, CIMA, OLOG, BTY, AOL, HBIO, TFS, F. ?, 2nd pos. ITCD, CLTK (11 to 14 to 11-) ?, TEX ?, NTT ?, and, puts, AXL, FDO, SPH ny, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
ANAD @ 12 ?, 1/2 pos. NUAN @ 8-, 1/2 pos. TKIOY @ 35+, and, LWIN, CNC, CYGN, IMCO, CORR, DTHK, STOR, and more, soon ?
1/2 pos. ABMD @ 14-, 1/2 pos. ANEN @ 14+, 1/3 pos. BR @ 33- ?, 1/3 pos. FLM @ 16 1/2, 1/2 pos. TEX @ 15+ ?, 1/3 pos. BRW @ 8.1, 1/3 pos. CYGN @ 4++, 1/3 pos. INET @ 8-, 1/2 pos. TLD @ 16+, (note, PCYC was not 'bt.', removed)
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
1/3 pos. KO @ 44, 1/3 pos. MOT @ 13+, 1/2 pos. VIGN @ 4-, 1/2 pos. BDAL @ 15, 1/2 pos. SGP @ 33+ eh, 1/3 pos. NDE @ 22+, 1/3 pos. GX @ 0.50+, CCR @ 40, BOY @ 7+, RIGL 4 5/8, 1/2 pos. TEO @ 5.65 eh, PBCT @ 21-, VSAT @ 12++, CLTK opb ?, SPOT @ 20, TFS @ 14, UHS @ 38, VRSN @ 33+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, CCI, PCYC, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
I try
to give them alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones):
1/2 pos. BSYS @ 64++, 1/3 pos. JNJ @ 60, 1/2 pos. BAX @ 54, 1/3 pos. IGEN @ 41- ?, ss the NASDAQ index around 2000,
"Repeats": OMC @ 90-, BBBY @ 35, 1/2 pos. HOTT @ 34++ ?, 1/2 pos. LEG @ 23, RJR @ 60, 1/2 pos. UPC @ 45+, 1/2 pos. PEP @ 49+, 1/3 pos. MTH @ 53+, 1/2 pos. BCS @ 135, 1/2 pos. UST @ 35, CBRL @ 30+, 1/2 pos. MSFT @ 70, 1/3 pos. VFC @ 40, ACV @ 45+, 1/2 pos. VCI. @ 36+, SKYF @ 20+, 1/2 pos. FTN @ 36++, LIZ @ 53+, CFBX @ 26, SPH @ 28, ASBC @ 35++, UDR @ 14+, IWV @ 65-, IVV @ 117-, 1/2 pos. ICBC @ 24+, UDR @ 14+, AMG @ 72++ ?,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, PSFT, STZ, AXL, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in
sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", IM, ASA, TLD, LU, GERN, UCFC, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CTAS ?, CACI, APOL, GILD, HDI, GNSS, SAGI, WSM, ILXO, UPC, SDS, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.... again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
PHI. 9 up 1, TEO 5.55, 6.15, ABMD 13.50 (B), 15.10, ACTU 6.86 up 0.30, BRW 8.50 up 0.53, KO 45.93, up/higher since last NL here....while, IM 18+, SNV 27, ASA 22 1/2, ELON 18-, even higher still....and, UNM approached/hit their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
ABMD 13.85 (bopb), ACTU 6.43 up, CPST 4.63 up, AVGN 9.56 bopb, TFS 14.05 cb, MC, MICC bopb, AMCC, VIGN, PSEM pb, BDAL 14.5 pb, CTS 15.34, ACPW 5.30, 5.90, 5.60, SIEB 4.41, 4.78, ALL, Q. 12.76 pb, AYE 34.25, PBCT 21.60 up, SCOR bopb, DPL 24.10, MCD 27.10 up 1.00, SPOT, the DJUA 287, dn 4....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
UHS 38 (B), 40, F. (S) ?, SGP ?, MOT (B), VRA, VSAT 12.50 (B) ?, CLTK 10.26 (S) ?, UTHR 9.04 bopb, VSAT, ZIXI 5.00, 5.38, 5.15, UFI, CVAS, KANA, VRSN 33.17 (B), 35.85, 34.66, UAL, LNUX, GX ?, PSEM, HMT (S), PHI, NTT 14.85 (S) ?, IFC, PDG, NNDS 18.90 up (sos), WFII, KFY (S), PDG pb, DSS dn, CHRS, CHINA, VRA 1.23 bopb, and,
most all Techs and rallied stocks, must follow-through up further....above their bases and resistance highs of this week....and/or, above their previously-broken-below-before-Sept. 11th-levels....and could NNDS, FON, be more 'fobd's ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
IDPH -2 1/2, GENZ -2 1/2, RJR -2, MSFT -2, UB -1, OMC -1, QQQ -1 3/4, NSM -1 1/4, the NASD index -105, down/further since last NL here ....while, IDPH, ACE, NSM, UB, ILXO, RCI, fell to/towards/below their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
Utilities, Entertainment/Leisure, Retail/Apparel, Cable, Brokers, Foreign depr. stocks - like Japan, Agriculture-oriented, Golds, Telecom, Steel, Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, and Precious and other Metals, some Transportation/Airlines, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds, at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note,
obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many
others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note,
re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this
NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read
sec. (1) above), added these:
AHAA, DTHK, CORR, FCEL, IMCO, LWIN, MEDX, MLNM, ONIS, NXTL, ONIS, PROX ?, QTRN, SBSE, WCOM, UNWR, LBRT, GEMP, AMT ?, CRA ny, GLW, TXN, ING, VTS, AGU, FTS, IN, PYX, WR, NSI. ?, CHU, FLE, WCG, APC, QVDX ?, PDII. eh, HAL, to, KM, LU, TIXX, INET, CYGN, NXTV, TXCC, CSAR, TLD, KCS, CWP, RCNC, MLNM ?, FA, WXS ?, to, KO, ANAD, AETH, NUAN, U, SONS, CNU, FAX, MOT, SATC, ADCT, AKAM, HNCS, HGSI, PCYC, DLEX, FLM, CED, WR, PCOP ?, F no ?, CNC, KME ?, PB, FDRY, WGRD ?, ENWY, GEMP, BCON, MDCC, BSTE, KCS, KEI., HIT ?, BRW, AMCC eh, HYDL, STOR, RIGL, ANEN, SCAI, ATML, PLXS ?, PNW, ALS, FLA, TEX ?, BDAL, ELON, TLCP, STLW, UCFC, TRMB, RT, BOY, MTP ny, RMBS opbo, AVNX opbo, JDSU obpbo, CTS, EX, CLTK, DCEL ?, ALL eh, NGEN, MFDE, HYSQ, UAL, CEI, SLR eh ?, UHS ?, CNH, MCD, VRSN ?,
as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy/Alt./Svcs.: BR ?, RRC, VLCCF, KCS ?,
some Biotechs, Drugs, and health-relateds: SGP, GERN, SCOR, OSTE, SHPGY, DMN, ABMD, GERN, CYGN, AVGN, UTHR, UHS,
among Telecom-Internet-Satellite-Commun.-orienteds: PACW, TLCP, CWP, TLD, NTT ?, TEO, NNDS ?, SPOT, BLS, GX, SCMR, VIGN, Q,
Utils.: PEG, AYE, NU, DTE, (others are already up),,
financial-orienteds: CCR, ALL, FAF, TSS, CNC, NDE, TKOIY, INET,
and, some more Foreign stocks and Telecoms,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, BAX, JNJ, BBY, AH, STJ, SVU, STK, HAS, SRZ, WSM, ACTN, GNSS, BSYS, GILD, NSIT, ESST, GENZ, IART, MEDQ, RESP, SAGI, IGEN, to, WSM, OMC, CTAS, ONE, FO, ETM, IP, GPT ?, LE, JCP, TCF, YUM ?, to, BBBY, MEDI, PEP, NSM, GTK, PH, UST, UPC, CLX, HOTT, LEG, KSS, ATVI, CBRL, EFTD, MSFT, MNTR ?, KSHS, UOPX, INTU ?, VFC, TECD, PGR, ADRX, AMGN, RCI, APOL ?, SMTC, ICBC, COST no ?, IFF, ACV, IBC, MTH, GCI, FBC, IMCL ?, FTN, STW ?, SKYF, UDR, BCS, TOO, APPB no ?, MATR, NHP, AMG, GENZ, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: added, extended Building/Residential/Commerical-relateds, Semiconductor-relateds, and maybe Chem. soon, to,
Extended: Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Peripherals, Security.... Toys/Leisure/Video/Games, temp. staffing, restaurants, Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Insur. Brokers/Banks/Mtg./S & L's/Loans, Homebuilders/Construction/Electrical, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES