Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in early April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I actually say/said, and would have said and would have done and felt, week by week, since then, employing my concepts, since I was forced undeservedly, illogically, and immorally, to stop my very valuable NL, and output, in April, 2000 - if only I had been able to continue my mostly exceptional output to the mass audience who has deserved to receive and take advantage of it, all this time....So, this missive is ONLY for MY own internal edification and proof, of the value of my output and concepts to others), and, thus, anyone reading this, has NOT gotten it from me....this has been just internally, and to make me feel good about myself, knowing that, when & if I get a proper opportunity to disseminate things of value, on a larger scale again, others will again benefit if they listen, learn, and act on my concepts and ideas, period....Seeing as my history has shown an amazing talent in prediction, shared in love from me, only to, way too often, be ignored, misused, not used, and sabotaged by those I sought to help and who sought to be helped by me, it is a tribute to my value, that I survive to this day, and continue to share in hope of helping others....

dated: 11:00 am, PST, Monday, January 22 nd, 2006

(I have continued to have 'NSCP/Mac up-loading my NL' problems lately, as well as 'Dell/DTNIQ software/charts-getting problems', oy)


"2006: still more large-ish decisions to make....can I do it all, and, mostly alone ? and, will the wheels come off the wagon in the USA, and in R.E., and in 'the borrowing economy', and, will Energy, Commods, R.E., correct, as they probably should, etc. ?"


as/and/or, "The Patterns Rarely Change"

Important Note: this serious, honest, very valuable "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, since March/April, 2000, due to the too-often at least semi-ignorant, semi-gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD/SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, unenlightened, self-serving more than client-serving, and thoughtless nature of most all brokerage firms....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, hopefully twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, FOR MYSELF ONLY, and to offer further significant, in-advance, in-writing, 'proof' of the massive value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....now if i could have gotten/can only get a bunch of decent people to DO what I suggest, they way i suggest, over a decent time period, this country would be helped significantly, yes ?

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

well, so far, major indexes continue to correct from recent recovery highs, yes ?, and/or have failed to bo decisively further/up, so remain pot. fobo's, hence added more puts, sec. (7) below....also, some Foreign Stocks Indexes also look s.t. toppy, as below ....while the 95 % begin to like them, as usual, right ?

and, now, Dick Arms foresees "a pot. big drop in stks" in 2006, hmmmm, as do i, at least SOME kind of bigger-stk-drop--than-the-95 %-expect, as with R.E., yes ?....plus, several NL's whose l.t. past t.r.'s we are not given, have recently been clamoring for a l.t. double-bottom in the VIX volatilkity indexes, i.e., as in 1993-95, the VIX has been basing since 2004, meaning, in their opinions, that 'volatility' is likely to Rise a lot, forward, in 2006-07....and, since most of them are Bearish generally, they hint at an eventual bigger-than-recent-decline in rallied items, at some point, forward....well, duh....but i would again remind y'all, that they all said that, also, for 3+ years, from 1993, yes ?, and, generally, we only got a nice drop in late 1994, 96, 98, in normal movement - and, after VIX rose for a couple of years back then, they all got bullish - right around the NAZ top 1999-2000, dig ?, see Y I rarely employ absolute indicators ?

oh, and I have mentioned correctly in recent years herein, that the over-hyped (re-read my Booklets) 'the Jan. effect' has/had already shifted to Nov./Dec., etc., and, get this: since 1990, the avg. Nov. gain has been +2.6 %, the avg. Dec. gain has been +4.1 %, and - wait for it- the avg. Jan. SPX gain had been 'only' +1.7 %....I again rest my case, dig ?, re-read my Booklets....

and, Mon., 2nd, B.Schaeffer, says, when/if VXO volatility stuff continues to rise from such low levels (I mentioned this possibility recently herein), it will be Bearish, forward, for Indexes....and, of course, Indexes ROSE early '06 so far, even the NAZ bo/up, hmmmm....and, as usual, note the new longside Gainers herein, below, so far....

ok, while the NAZ bo recovery high, and maybe the DJIA may be/have a bo/up, the OEX still needs to pop more, and, remember, the SPX remains way below its y2k high....but, NYSE had 350 new 52-wk highs, with only 12 new 52-wk lows, last wk, but, by wed. 1/18, fell to 80 new highs/34 new lows, dig ?....meaning, probably, many fobo's....

be that as it may, WE are/were not 'surprised' by the one-day 'Tech. stk. swoon', AMD, INTC, IBM, YHOO, etc., Wed. 18th, dig ?, re-read my 'earnings crap' notes in past Booklets/NL's....even with their sales/eps way UP, their stks corrected, so what else is new....HOWEVER, as U have learned in my PSYCLE sm, note all the recent longside winners in sec. (4) below, regardless of my still-not-massively-bullish tambor, a tribute to our IGR, non-news, non-fundamentals-oriented, approach....one more time: Tue. 17th all the idiots flipped out at the one-day tech. stk. drop, yes, citing "lowered future earnings, yadda, yadda", yes ? - then, in perfect PSYCLE sm nuance, Thu., those same idiots said, "stocks bounced on rises in Health stocks, taking investors' minds off the flailing tech. sector"....uh, excuse me ?, how is that possible ?, anyway, re-read my Booklets, and do things as we do, not as the 95 % have, oy....I again rest my case....

that said, recent MarketVane sentiment figures show 93 % Gold bulls (do i have to tell U what that implies ?), and 71 % bulls in the SPX, in 18 yrs. of their recording such data, they said these are the 2nd highest figures ever = ?, and the last time were this high, was in Summer of 1997, right B4 'the Asian crisis', and a VQ -15% drop in the SPX, dig ?....plus, evidently, the usually-correct commercial commod. futures traders, have now a larger aggregate net Short position, in the SPX futures, than any short position since y2k (?), (I wish they would state the specific mo. in 2000, but, oy), and their net short positions just B4 the stk. mkt. peaks of 12/04 and 2/01, hmmmm....the overall inference, again, being, this is more likely to be a bull fobo 'trap', rather than a new rise beginning, yes ?....

btw, 'the 93 % bulls in Gold' level, compares to its 96 % bulls reading in 12/05, B4 a s.t. pb....plus, Gold is farther/higher above its 200 dma, now, than it was in 12/05, and, the commercials are net short over 150,000 contracts, vs. net short 35,000 contracts in 12/05, hmmmm....and, Fri. 20th, DJIA -200, and SPX -30, etc., see ? oh, last, IF, and note I say 'if', one DID follow that VIX crapola, from a low around 9-10, getting over 14+, fri. 20th, be reminded, that the previous several rises in the VIX's value, going back 2 yrs., has been around the 18+ area, so, if one WAS s.t. bearish from recent highs, as I/we have been, one would expect further downside s.t. n. wk., dig ?, 'nuff said....

and/but, since the 95 % seemed to have overreacted to the one-day Indexes drops late 19th/20th, and, my acquaintences 'are now expecting an auto. big downside follow-thru Mon.', of course, in PSYCLE sm nuance, the downside follow-thru did NOT occur, dig ?, s.t.o., R U learning ? hope so....

So, as U have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just taking advantage of the best individual stocks and in rotating industry groups, chart-pattern-technically and sentiment-wise contrarily, mostly on the long side, but never eschewing the put-side, with preset stops and proper diversification - while ignoring or going opposite 95 % of all news, fundamentals, media messages, opinions, indexes/averages comments, from nearly everyone other than me, etc.
By just getting my output herein, alone, at least, U do much better, and save time, by not even having to "seek and process" the massive and ridiculous, often-misleading and/or incorrect, useless-as-D.A.F.P.P. info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for U, B4 they even begin, yes ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:

1) cash Gold 562 up, Tue. 17 th, highest px since Mar. 1981, so, ahead, this may be the parabola-to-the-final-top ?, but, since I have been wrong, in a rare incorrect moment, on Gold, recently, I am out of it....even as, supposedly, in a story most-often appearing near tops (re-read my Booklets), China & India consider adding to their Gold reserves (hey, where have they been since gold was $ 260 ?, dgms)....wed. 18th, Gold pb to 540, then 566, 550, = fobo ?.... 2) I still watch the depr. fuel-cell-type stks for pot. longside, BLDP, PLUG, FCEL, etc., perhaps ahead....and, by Mon. 23rd, all are up, you're welcome....you know, i was thinking, in PSYCLE-nuance, how come all the Energy boo-birds are missing THIS I.G., also ?, 'if' things are, as they have been saying (which WE know they are not, dig ?).... 3) and the Stk. Mkt. Alamanc, going back decades, reminds us, that, in "Jan. seasonality', generally, in modern years, the best performing sectors have tended to be, Techs, Semis, Finls, and, interestingly, the Energy & Util. sector has historically been DOWN early in years, hah....good for us, both ways, ay ? - and, by Mon. 23rd, many stks correcting s.t. already, dig ?, as I expected, yes ?

4) the Mar. t-bond rose further to 115.4, on Tue. 17th, hah....this is, again, the opp. of what the 95 % have been expecting, yes ?, R U learning the PSYCLE sm patterns ?....anyway, the 118+ area lies overhead, still, right ?.... 5) and, as seemingly only I predicted herein from recent high, feb. nat. gas bd/further, under $ 8., hah, (and/but sell your profitable puts I gave out herein, your're welcome)...."but, Jim, n.g. can never fall ever during cold winters" - yeah, right, re-read my Booklets....and sell your N.G. puts bt. in d.t.-U-should-learn-from, at $ 14-15, yes ?, you're welcome....and, watch to buy long, at stage-2 low, soon, under $ 8.-, dig ?

6) meanwhile, Mar. Copper rose to a.t. high at $ 2.10/lb., but Crude popped to $ 68.35, fri. 20 th, but we are not worried about Crude any more, yet, of course....but wb a double-top, close stop above $ 71. (its 8/05 intraday, a.t., high), or else ?....and I must admit to being surprised at unl. gas back up to 1.90, locally about $ 2.45/gal. again, oy.... 7) since seemingly only I recently added Ford @ 7.6, wondering if GM @ around $ 18+, with its pot. 10 % div., might also be a s.t. bottom ? yup....plus, very recent WSJ article, "if GM's div. vanishes, so might it's stock price and investors", smacks of - you know this by knowing my PSYCLE, right ? - an impending BOTTOMY more than shortable nuance, sentiment-wise, historical pattern-wise, yes ?, we shall C....oh, and also, Kirkorian's Tricenda firm, which OWNS 7.8 % of GM stock, is actually URGING them to CUT/elim. their div. !, interesting, huh....Y would a huge stk. holder want to purposely LOSE an 8 % div. ?, unless it knew/felt the l.t pot. was significant from down here, dig ?, R U learning the pattern, dear reader ?, if not Y not ?

8) while I usually dont do it this way, in Psycle IGR, when/if the big Energy-stocks-winners investors move some of their Gains OUT of those topped stocks, that will free up a bunch of $ to be reinvested into depr. ideas, like maybe, Drugs, Trans, Techs ?, ahead/already ? ....9) according to B.S., tons of Puts have recently been bt. on PMCS, w/PMCS around 9.5, so am watching, tho we are out of it on this bounce-after-breakdown.... he also is 'putting' 'hospital' stks, like, LPNT, HCA, UHS, TRI, here, we shall C.... 10) and, while I was correct shorting, then a qsl shorting, and out since recent u/s bo, in it, Google's current mkt. cap. is more than either, IBM's, and Berkshire's (W. Buffett), yikes....ridiculous, ay ?, and, may have been a 'fobo' after all, as seemingly only I suggested herein, 414, 445, then 390, then 475, then 400, 445 'omly', dig ?

11) well, as usual, Agora/TDR/TRA NL, only-now likes "palladium", long, which, recall, I specifically gave out 2 U herein in its long nice depr. base, a while ago, yes ?, they cite China's needs for it, yadda, yadda....also, as usual, while I gave it 2 U herein UNDER $ 200, THEY waited till just over $ 400. oz. recently, to begin to like it, dig ?, as the pattern rarely changes....next.... 12) recall how I have said that, while the 95 % latecomers are only recently beginning to favor the Nikkei (at 15,000 , already way up from where I suggested it long, herein, from around 6,000 , while they hated it as usual, re-read my Booklets) ?, well, recent biggest-one-day-drop-since-5/04, from 16,400+ to 15,800 or so, may mark at least a s.t. top in that index, dig ?, ditto with the Heng Seng index from over 16,000....oh, and in case some idiots/95 %-ers are telling U (incorrectly, mind U, Psycle-wise) that, "the Asian indexes fall on higher Oil prices" = total b.s., because, they have/had been RISING for months/years, AS Crude had/has been ALSO rising, up to this wk., yes ?, jeez, they never learn, do they ?, but you/we do, yes ?, next....and, by Mon. aft. 23rd, Nikkei dn to 15,300 and H.Seng dn to 15,400 , C ?, cb just the beginning of a top in them , and probably lower still, ahead ?, and a small kudo for EWT for also calling the s.t. drops....but we expect another bounce, before they may break below recent lows....

13) that said, Unleaded (auto) Gas held recent lows, already up towards 1.90-, with its recent high 1.96 not too long ago, dig ?, rats....i did kinda figure it to fall below 1.50 recent low, sorry, chief....so, unless/until falls below recent 1.70, then 1.50, actually looks higher, even might make a new high, which will help (sic) Recession, causing more $ cost for auto-drivers, dig ?, rats....and, it sure is taking a piling-on number of 'neg. scary fundam. stories' to get Crude up to $ 68+, 1/22, hmmmm....how come is not above $ 100. already, dig ?, dgms.... 14) gee, did I read this right- the TMV of the entire Nikkei stocks Index, at 16,800 recent high, is 'only' about $ 45 B. ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, Your Govt., etc.:

1) the EWT said, "the number of investors in Saudi Arabia has risen in just the last 5 yrs., from 50 K, to 2 mm", wow, if so....of course, their always-negative inference, is that S.A. has been somehow 'keeping the US mkts. alive by investing so much here", the last few years, which is, of course, more of their BS....and, they infer negatively further, when (not if, dgms), they stop investing 'here', our country will fall, yadda, yadda....yeah, right.... 2) and, in possibly-perfect PSYCLE nuance, am now reading articles, after they loved it at highs, hated it at lows as usual, that, supposedly, "JBLU is fading fast" - get it ?, U know what stage in its PSYCLE sm, that likely means, yes ? (hint: it aint a top, right ?)

3) and, with Crude popping to $ 68. the 22nd, lately, still below its $ 70. high, Iran announces it is going ahead with its Nuclear plans, and, China & India announce they are going to est. Oil reserves, buying Oil, ahead for that purpose....so, unless/until Crude rises over $ 70., I still say these smack of normal, usual, stage-4 Psycle sm stories one hears near tops, get it ?, re-read my Booklets.... 4) the EWT correctly, i assume, reminds us, that, in the past 40 yrs., every inverted-yield-curve led to Recessions....they said in 8/05 that it is 'inevitable'....yet, as usual in Psycle-sentiment, all 56 economists in year-end/ahead WSJ recent 2006 prediction article, see pos. GDP growth every Q. of 2006, coming - while EWT, and I, and the Doomers, foresee the Recession - but those 56 'famous economists' do not....so what else is new ?, get it ? ....meanwhile, while we do not normally 'do' fundamentals, Iran's Nuclear stance may lead other UN nations to sanction them at some point, and Iran produces 5-6 % of the world's oil....and, of course, in normal PSYCLE nuance, I see all the idiot/late analysts now liking Uranium stocks, 'because of Iran', as the pattern rarely changes....and, of course, no Uranium stk. is low, all are ALREADY way up, from where I suggested them 2-3- yrs. ago herein, yes ?, next....

4) and, from a guy Jon Markham, via thestreet.com, in as good a probably-fadeable story Psycle-wise as U will see, entitled - get this - "17 stocks that ALWAYS go up"....the symbols: EXPD, GLYT, BRO, GGG, SYK, POOL, FRK, SSD, TOL, CHS, CLFC, CATY, GGG, SWWC, HARB, FELE, ANZ, HME, NAB, NJR, as, in his doing, have had stocks with ''positive stock price retuns every one of the last 10 years''....and, of course, none of them were loved at their lows, and all are way too high to even consider now, right ? interesting: I know of very few people nor pros who have ever heard of most of those, have U ?, again, I rest my case....the 'overrated/overpaid pros' continue to UNDER-perfrom often, yes ? ....5) and, in 2005, guess what were the 3 best-perfroming Countries' stock Indexes ?, nope - S. Korea, Brazil, Mexico....and, btw, China was among the WORST, as seemingly only I suggested herein last year, yes ?.... 6) hey, here's a fundamental prediction from me, I dont hear elsewhere: 'wireless users/buyers' now total about 2/3 of the US potential buyers, therefore, expect slower growth in all of that, forward - another sign of Recession forward, i say....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:

1) well, for the 2nd time recently, 'the 95 %' were surprised (but not us) by your govt. ann. HIGHER crude oil & nat. gas Inventories, even with recent 'frigid N.E. weather', dgms, hah.... 2) and, as R.E. corrects, keep in mind that about 20-25 % of all biz/jobs in OC are mtg./r.e./bldg.-related, yes ?, so, watch out.... 2) BCA. Res. showed another vg chart, of 'the fed-funds-I.R.', vs. 'the SPX's PE ratio', and, guess what ?, while most are bearish on rallied stocks, and RE, etc., this chart back to 1960, shows that, contrary (as usual, re-read my Psycle Booklets) to what the pros have mistakenly misbelieved for decades, PE's tend to RISE, as the Fed lowers IR's, sergo, to BCA, stock-PE's may RISE, as the Fed stops-then-loers IR's in 2006-07, as I also predict will happen to IR's, yes ?, while "the 95 %' mis-believe that IR's have only begun rising, dig ? (fundamentally (oy), corporations are getting more efficient at margin-raising, and the world-econ. continues to get stronger (?)), they say....

3) Argentina is the world's 2nd lgst. exporter of Corn....now U know I normally eschew fundamentals, but they say they are having a drought, and, as U know, I am among the few who like the depr.-l.t. Grains, Corn, Wheat, etc., long, forward....hmmmm.... 4) l.t. uber-bearish Steven Roach, big-time econ. for MSDW, says, Americans w/d over $ 600 B. from Home Equity in 2005....interesting, since Fed numbers say they 'only' w/d around $ 200-250 B, hmmmm....i think the 'bears/doomers' are immorally/misleadingly (as usual) using the 'potential $ they have to employ/withdraw', while the Fed is trying to use the 'actual $ amt. w/d-used so far', dig ?, more honestly, yes ?, so what else is new, NL's misleading and hurting people.... 5) speaking of Gold, TRA/TDR says, 'the total present value of all Gold ever mined' is now, at $ 555/oz., about $ 450 B....

6) gee, if the 'experts/analysts' are supposed to be so good (sic), how come they 'missed' recent ests. on YHOO, INTC, IBM, etc. ?, announced 1/18 , which 'they' 'blame' the NASD stk. drop on, etc., yadda, yadda....but, interwestingly, in a rare potentially-correct move, S & P actually just Lowered GOOG from a hold to a sell, wow....one kudo to them.... 7) *** and, hey, get this: your govt. just announced their stockpiles of Crude Oil, are now +12 % Higher than at this time, last year, hah, like an increase of over 3mm bbls. - take that, perma-energy-bulls/doomers ....8) and, while I normally eschew one-co. fundamentals, Cendant, CD, may become like 4 diff. stocks, as it jettisons its 4 operating units, this year ?, could the parts end up being worth a lot more than CD, near its lows (where, recall, I liked CD lower, herein, yes ?, when the analysts all hated it, big neg, articles abounded in mainstream Finl. Press back then, s usual, yes ?)....historically, as i have mentioned herein B4, spin-offs have done BETTER after the spin-off, going back decades, so watch for this, ahead, l.t.

9) TRA NL says France & Britain are 'idiots' for having been selling their national Gold holdings, for/during 2004-2005, all the way up.....and, that the USA 'says' they cont. to hold about 262 mm ozs., worth about $ 130 B., now.... 10) and TRA/TDR, cite some guy's citing that "M-3 growth is skyrocketing a.o.a. sudden, up + $ 178 B. the last 6 wks. alone, which is an annualized rate over +20-25 %" ....they, of course, view everything as Doomable, but I recall reading where, most ends-of-most-years, M-3 rises, because Your Govt. pumps $ in for normal, usual, Holiday spending....what i need to know, and the authors did not tell us as usual, is what end-of-recent-past-years M-3 rises %, were, dig ?.... but, an additional little item of pot. neg. econ. note, I do hear: that ''total Fed credit declined by -$ 17 B. last wk.", meaning, less $ to lend out, get it ?, wish I could follow that, because THAT item, if falls more, continually, WOULD neg. affect this ecopn., dig ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) well, finally, even www.INO.com, just pitched, "is Gold going to $ 850 ?", and, in PSycle sm parlance, U know what THAT likely means, s.t. ahead, anyway, sentiment-wise, yes ? ....oy ....2) wow, foinally, Bob EWT Prechter, just formally admitted, "I have been wrong for a very long time", being mostly-bearish on stocks, since after the 1987 crash, dgms.... interesting.... 3) and, as usual, only after a big l.t. price stocks rise (re-read my Booklets), a new ETF, PowerShares = PHO, is 'water-related stocks, new issue....of course, i viewed the stk. px. chart of all 35 stks w/in it, and - U guessed it - only 1, is anywhere else but anear its a.t. high, already, get it ?, that one 'bopb', is CCC....next....as the PSYCLE pattern rarely changes....

4) a rare kudo to B.S., who, like, me, sees Ford & GM as depr. buys, esp. given the Media's piling-on in Neg. fundamental articles, dig ?, and Moodys downgrades Ford debt, yeah, right- not...R U learning the patterns ? hope so....meanwhile, noticing all the positive (opposite) press on CRAY, if U recall herein, I was among the few to suggest depr. buy near l.t. lows, when the analysts all predicted BK for CRAY, yes ?, R U learning the pattern ? hope so.... 5) Doug perma-doom Casey, predicts in 2006: gold to 700, silver to 20, oil to 100, IR's way up, SPX way down, yadda, yadda.... 5) and, reminding y'all, that according to the WSJ, wall st. is handing out over $ 21 B. in bonuses here....wow....not sure if they are warranted, as weren't in several recent years....

6) gee, since being perma-bearish for years now, the Agora/TDR/TRA NL people, only 1/17/06, finally ask in NL title, "recession ahead ?"....well, duh.... broken clock my ass.... 7) and recent MONEY mag. detailed fading RE prices, nationwide, coasts, etc., well, duh.... 8) well, since, in 2005, 'private corporate buyouts/takeovers' rose +90 % over the amt. raised/spent for those buyouts $ in 2004, rose to $ 105 B., and now, late/high as usual (re-read my Booklets), only NOW (get it ?) do we read about 'watch for a bunch of such buyouts ahead in 2006' articles in the always-late finl. Press, dig ? ....9) the EWT seems to be strongly expecting the Japanese Yen to bo of a 10-yr. contracting triagle, UP a lot, forward, hmmmm....as we have said, where were they when the Nikkei bottomed years ago, and is already up +150 %, and they are not yet bullish on it, as we were, herein ?, next....

10) add Palladium: only recently has now the EWT added Palladium, as 'the best looking commod. around now from here forward" - as usual, way later, and higher, than I specifically gave it out herein, quite a while ago, yes ?, R U learning the pattern ?, oh, where are my accolades and rewards ?, and again, know that the 95 % always 'add/discover' everything high/late, period....

e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore or go/do the opposite of, 95 % of everything else out there:

1) while the Doomer NL's have cont'd. to disappoint, BCA-research, Quebec, has, for years, been among the few decent econ. NL's, predictive-wise....anyway, recently, they showed a nice chart back to 1980, showing 'US home bldrs. activity', vs. 'inventory of homes as a % of households', and, finally, as i predicted a few months ago herein, it shows a definite H & S top in activity, and a Psycle-type saucer in Inventory, hmmmm, get it ?, would be a perfect storm if so....but the trouble is/has been, IMHO, the H & S top & btm., show since 1993-94, get it ?, I mean, a "RE-top' has been forming, if so, since way back at the BOTTOM-in-prices, in 1994 !, so, once again, while it certainly may be true, forward, with RE-probably-lower, it was NOT a good harbinger of any kind, since 1994, untill now, dig ?, so inconclusive, dgms....

and, by 1/4/06, reading more and more anecdotal stories of RE slowing, etc., NY, VA., Fla., So Cal., etc. - and, I heard from my Oregon RE guy, that now, again, their RE is again fully/over-priced, as many Ore. SFH's have doubled in price off their correction lows of just 3 yrs. ago, dig ?, so even that alt. is gone, dig ? ....oh, and just FYI, per-sq.-ft. prices of NYC condos and co-ops, hit around - get this - $ 1,000/sf, a record, late 2005....that, vs., say, 'only' $ 350/sf for condos even in OC, get it ? so, as I inferred, this leaves only the Midwest, Texas, and maybe the Carolinas, as the least expensive R.E. relatively, forward....

2) and, Jan. 1 was the deadline for Seniors nationwide to sign up for that ridiculously-complicated 'medicare D' plan - your govt. says, out of 45mm people eligible, only 6mm+ signed up....gee, I wonder why....your tax dollars (not) at work, ay....I still await much of anything the govt. does, to work well, and w/o special/political interests/crap, aren't you ? ....3) I just read in perma-doomer NL, TRA/TDR, that, they say, Shanghai R.E. prices are already off -30 % in recentl months, hmmmm...their inference, of course, is that's what's coming for the US coasts' R.E. .... 4) ho hum, as seemingly only I suggested herein last year, according to recent LAT/OCR, 'the OC" now has - get this - a SURPLUS of 'water', due to catch-up rains, etc., so much the recent articles said, that in some areas, the ground is not able to handle the water....dgms....see how CYCLES work ?, no exceptions, ay ?, anyway, watch for the boo-birds to spin this positive item, negatively, and, for OC politics to somehow screw this one up as well, ahead.... 'drought forever forward', yeah, right....R U learning the patterns ?....

5) and speaking of Political crap (is there any other kind ?), I just read where evidently, a few years ago, SBUX had itself classified as - get this - a 'manufacturing co.' (dgms), so it would forward, qualifies for special tax-code tax breaks....great system, huh....not.... 6) in their continuing e.o.t.world perma-dooming, TRA now says that "1 in every 53 Amer. families has filed for bankruptcy"....gee, I dunno, that sounds awfully high, you agree ?, and that "banks are now taking back homes faster than they can finance them....81,000 properties in Amer. entered some form of foreclosure in Dec. '05, up from 70,000+ in Nov. '05"....wherefrom do they keep getting such drivel ?, anyway, at least it seems logical that their stuff is mis-applied, yes ?, in that, I mean, is that a total of 81 K problematics, up from 70k+ already in force ?, if so, then, that is 'only' 81 K homes, out of MILLIONS nationwide, yes ?, dgms....last, he wrote that 'foreclosures rose + 25 % to +60 % in Utah, NV, Ca., TX, in Dec. '05"....oy.... remember, as taught U in my Booklets, "any even small # rise, from a very very low level, translates to, initially, a very high % garise", yes ?, math....

7) and, this from 1/22/06 front-page LAT, R.E. sec., yet another l.t. toppy sign in Psycle parlance, showing how, in 2005, the biggest price gains, like +40-50 %, occured in the lowest-quality, catch-up, IGR-like, communities, east/south of LA....for instance, Bev. Hills 'only' rose about 7 % in 2005, dig ?, perfect "PSYCLE sm" IGR", ay ?, exactly as seemingly only i teach....when the 'crap' rises, watch out, dig ?, re-read my Booklets....


So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where they exist, and/or assumed bt. on Margin ("s.o.m."), where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....

"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:


still more quick, large % Gains:

9 more Longs,
and,

5 more Puts:

as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)


all s.o.m. ALGN (5 3/4 to 8 1/4) for % Gain....1/2 pos. DALRQ (0.50+ to 0.85+) for VVQ % G....at least 1/2 pos. s.o.m. IDNX (4+ to 7++) for % G....1/2 pos. calls NDN (9- to 11-) for VVQ % G....bal. calls JBLU (11++ to 17-) for VQ % G....bal. calls MRK, LLY, for Q % G....bal. puts GCI (82+ to 61) for l.t. % G....all puts Feb. Nat. Gas (15- to 8++) for VQ very big % Gain....1/2 pos. puts DXY (92+ to 89+) for Q % G....1/2 pos. SUNW (3+ to 5-) for % G....1/2 pos. calls LEA (28 tpo 31) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. s.o.m. MIVA (4.1+ to 5.9-) for VVQ % G....at least 1/2 pos. stk. CCUR (1 5/8- to 2 3/8-) for % G....1/2 pos. s.o.m. BVC (15+ to 18) for VQ % G + div., bal. s.o.m. BVC (15+ to 18), bal. calls MRK (26+ to 33+), for nice big % Gains....1/2 pos. puts DCEL (8+ to 6+) for Q % G....

and/but, longs, TOPT or fobd ?, 1/2 pos. LEA, bal. PMCS (11 to 6 to 9+), ,
and, puts, WLT fobo ?, CTSH bo ?, GOOG, PTEN, DNR,
for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol, if I have time:
again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:


1/3 MLIN @ , ISSI @ 6+, AXL @ 18-, LEA @ 27+, L. @ 7 5/8, AFR @ 11+, +div., WFII. @ 5., PLCM @ 14 5/8, LSCC @ 4+, 1/3 F. @ 7.60 db, non, CMGI. @ 1.50+, 1/3 SLR 3.50+, and, a spec, Mar. Nat. Gas @ 7++ ? soon, close stop, s.t.o.,

1/3 CSCO @ 17+ non, 1/3 MIVA @ 4.5, 1/4 pos. CPNLQ @ 0.15 to 0.20 ? super-spec eh ?, and 1/3 pos. those 18.5 % CPNLQ notes due 7/06, @ 27-, with CPNL @ 0.15 ? hmmmm, eh, (note, JBLU @ 11.5-12.0 adj. for split - (sold))

NDN @ 9+, EXTR @ 4 1/6, 1/3 SUNW @ 3 5/8, 1/3 CVM @ 0.46 fobd, 1/3 PLC @ 0.47 non, 1/3 CIF @ 3 3/8 + div., 1/2 pos. bonds GM 10 % coupon, mature 2015, @ 73, 1/3 AMCC (fo)bd ?, C.AY.U @ 11 3/4 big div., ALGN @ 6.1,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): 1/4 SINX @ 0.02- super spec, IDNX 4.38, EVC opb....

remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times, to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc., continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal, usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....


*** Important: took,
DCN bd, IMH, HNR bd, XJT bd, TPOT bd ?,
and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Longside Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),


puts: added, TIE @ 75 d.t., BAC @ 47, CI. ? fobo ? @ 117 ?, DCEL @ 8-, ADSK @ 44++, GME no, bo ?, STC @ 52+ non, fobo, to,

the CRB around 335 firm, AMZN 49+ non, HAR @ 104-, SBUX @ 32, EBAY 47- non, TYX @ 4.8% +, TNX @ 4.6 % +, DJIA @ 11.k-, DXY @ 92.5, OEX @ 585+, TLT @ 92+ again,

others, "Repeats":

see above....

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, WGII, ODP bo ?, AAPL bo ?, VSEA bo, NOV bo ?, VLO bo, PTEN bo, VTR bo, GME bo ?, DNR, MUR, HYDL bo, REM, CRI,
and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit ....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed",
BLDP, PLUG, LTXX, NLY, CDIC, OSIP, PLT, STTS, KEM, IMCL, GM, PHRM, CMOS, CCMP, DTPI, MLIN, MOVI, GM rats,
as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PRGS, EBAY, SEB, NOV, DEO, COH, BMHC, UTHR, CRI, AMGN, NFLX,
as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



* suggested-herein stocks which are acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er), hang in them unless otherwise noted:
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to learn the patterns yet again:

IDNX 7.86 up 2.96 nice, sos, JBLU 17 adj. up 3 nice (S), ALGN 8.48 up 2.38 v. nice (S), SUNW 4.15, 5.00 bo, CHINA 4.40 cbo, up 1.21, F. 8.96 up 1.41, DALRQ 0.89 stbo ?, AXL 21.36 up 3.60 nice, LEA 30.13 up 3.06 nice, IRSN 3.33 up 0.55 bo, L. 8.11 up 0.34, PLCM 17.05 up 2.66 nice, CSCO 19.42 up 1.91, LSCC 4.74 up 0.56, AFR 12.74 up 0.76, TLT 92.59 soso, SLR 3.89 up 0.36, WFII. 5.09 bopb, 5.36 stbo, TOPT 13.24, MIVA 5.99 up 0.82, COMS 4.74 up 0.61 cbo, soso ?, ISSI. 6.11 non, 6.58, DSS 3.59 up 0.44 bo, PLCM 17.18, SXT 19.15, up/further since last NL here....and, PPH 72.87, bo ?, with MRK 33.++ (S), LLY 58.75, up ?....and, IDNX 5.44 ctbo ?, and, SEBL 10.64 still a t/o....and, GM bonds up, of course....

and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:


MLIN , ISIS 5.69 up bmsfoe, pb, NDN 9.90 pb, msfoe, 10.95, mssf, CMGI. 1.48 pb, csb, bmsn, EXTR 4.58 fobd ?, 4.80, msa, PLC 0.55, 0.48, 0.60 wc, 0.49 bopb, 0.59, DALRQ 0.68 pb, TLT 91.49 pb, CCUR 2.34 up 0.33 ctbo but (S), AXL 17.95 dn 3.30 wow, msa, cbopb, 18.76, F. 8.13 pb, MIVA 5.28 pb, 5.65, 5.13 msa, SUNW 4.70 pb, msa, 4.39, 4.70, 4.46, AFR 12.44 pb, CEGE 6.04 pb, F. 7.85 pb, 8.59, 8.31, PLCM 16.60 pb, EXTR 4.65, 5.13, 4.87, CSCO pb, COMS 4.38 pb, WFII. 5.00 pb, cb, 5.37, SXT 18.60 pb.... and, that 18.5 % trashed CPN note, up from 27 to 44 recently, eh....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or else, yes ?)

IDNX msf, LEA bd (S), CPNLQ 0.28 up, non, ms, EVC 6.95 ms, 7.28, 6.98, 7.40, hold, FNGC 0.26, 0.49 sos, 0.35, 0.42, LENS msfoe, BVC msa....and, PMCS 9.95 up (sos), AMCC 3.06, 2.75, LLT 57++pb, msa....and, might TOPT be another fobd ? eh....ditto HNR 9.90 up , fobo, hold....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may be too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, so stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out to learn:

feb. nat. gas 8.30 dn 3.90 wow, hah (S) puts, PTEN 35+, 32.7, DCEL 6.17 dn 1.83 nice, ADSK 42.8 dn 1.9, SBUX 30-, DXY 88.80 dn 2.55, hah, cow, BAC 44+ dn 2+, TIE 69 dn 6, down/lower since last time here....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):


and/but these must weaken anew:

TIE 75, 71, 73+, TLT 92.77 non, mwi, bo ?, mw, EBAY 47- non, DXY cbd 87.91, STC up, non, 53, 51.4, CI. 117, 110, DJIA 11,020 fobo ? 10,661 hah, OEX 586++ fobo ? mwa, 570 hah, HAR 99+, 93+,103 mwa, TNX 4.3 % yld dn a lot, hmmmm, TYX 4.5 % yld dn a bit, mwf, GME 39, 38, mwfn, SBUX 31.7, 30.2, TNX also mwa, BAC mwa, ADSK 42+, 44+, 41+, 43- mwa, 44+, 43+, are and/or up/dn, when/and they should be falling more....and, WON 16-, dn, even more, (S) bal. puts....and, GCI 60-, lower still, (S)....and, GOOG, 414, but then bo (S), but then, fri. 20th, 394, hah....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?

some Depressed:
*** in lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, as they tend to be depessed, and still, there have not been as many clearly-doable I.G. sectors, except as delineated/mentioned in sec. (3) at times, above....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added:

added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
'opbo', means 'on pullback only', yes ?
as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?

but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so bopbo for most, yes ?

added, MLIN, ISSI opb, N. Gas s.t.o. soon, LU d.b. ?, AXL, LEA, L, CBB ?, AFR ? below, SLR, CMOS, KEM, SXT, CCMP, MOVI evb, F., GM, PHRM, QLTI ?, WFII, PLCM, LSCC, MLIN d, to, SANM opbo, CSCO close stop, TLT, INSM spec, PLUG opb, AKS opb, EXTR obpbo, MIVA, PLC, JDSU mtln, CVM fobd, DBTC spec eh, SINX fobd ?, TXEO another super spec. ?, PCLE tln, PKS tln, IRSN ovbpbo, IDNX, EVC bd ?, AMCC fobd, SUNW tln, ALGN, COMS obpbo, held, HLIT fobd ? ny ?, SSCC fobd, SEHO obpbo....

and these may be just stage 2 pb's buys, and/or EVB's, with close stops below real recent lows?: NLS, PLT, UST, PLCM, s.t. anyway ?, also watching, CDIC, NGEN, WIW, ZHNE opbo, CTIC, ahead ?!

and, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while you wait ?
added, NLY ?, AFR ?, PTF ovbpbo, WIW sta ?,
to, 18.5 % note CPN matures 7/07, again, @ 27 ? yikes, BLX, BVC, CIF + 9.5 % div., bonds GM 10 % coupon, mature 2015, @ 73 ....and, ZF ovbpbo,
and, been watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both were already up around 11 and 13++, when added herein, and, now, are 13 and 17+ (S), so too high, were yielding 15 % each at lows anyway, so tln,

and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):

(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....

note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:

note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....


added, AMGN, ADSK, DCEL, NFLX, UTHR, BMHC oso, BAC, GME ? bo ?, CI. ?, SEB, STC non, TIE, to, AMZN non ?, HAR oso, big stk. indexes, FCS, SBUX d.t. eh, EBAY, and, extended Energies oso, Banks, Finls, REITs, Leisure, Gaming, Flour/Grain/food, oso, REITs oso, and most bonds on strength only....and, perhaps, the stock indexes oso again ahead oso, non ?, but Semis & Gold bo, until recently running into resistance, no longer cheap at all, dig ?

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES