1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Still quite a 'split' market....many juxatapositional crosscurrents, making it crucial to view each industry group and individual stock independently....Last Thu. the 20th, was the heaviest volume day ever, on the NASDAQ exchange....and, we are seeing even more juxtapositional I.G. 'rotation' occuring....while the S & P and NY Comp. biggies look S.T. toppy here and now, again, the "NYSE defensive stock index" (non-sexy, food/bev., aero./def., grocers, energy, consumer products, cleaning, tobacco, golds, etc.), broke down even further from where I gave many of those stocks as Puts herein, back last Spring....The DJ. Trans. Avg. broke down, for a Q, S, loss, yet the DJ. Util. Avg. rose further (sos)....and, in addition to the nifty-fifty NASDAQ parabolics breaking out/up anew, the AMEX index also broke out/up anew, something NO one out there ever mentions....Now, some Railroads and Aero./Def. stocks trying to bottom again here....And, the extended Foreign stocks I have mentioned recently, still look to be crusin' for a bruisin' S.T., as the 'experts' begin to go super-bullish on them, late, as usual....As I mentioned earlier recently, they all think those countries will 'begin to fly' economically, when they are already way up from their 1998 bottoms....bottom line: expect more disappointments among extendeds, and more bounces among depressed stocks....

See how many issues are in the 'I gave you herein, but the NL just missed' paragraph, in section (3) below....how difficult can it be to 'see' if a stock is basing, or parabolic ?

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7).... and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:1) the T-bond yield made another recovery 'overshoot high' around 6.74 %, yet, the March Cash commodity contract is holding above its recent $ 89. low....hmmmm.... 2) note our depressed Energy stocks rising, balancing the few Q, S, losses in Energy stock puts recently.... 3) added more depressed Aero./Def., Apparel, stocks in section (6) below.... 4) many depressed Bank stocks are seeling at 5-10 PE here.... 5) also see, how, even though we got whipsawed in CPL, other Utility stocks I gave you herein, may be emerging....and, today, we saw some amazing rises in some Utility stocks, and Bob Pisaniu over-reporting it, late, as usual....as usual, I was the first to foresee this at DJUA 283+, as you know.... 6) confirming what I was recently the first/only to suggest, more "Asia/Japan/Foreign" stocks may be topping, like, NTT, SKM, TV, TEF, ERICY, etc.

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) front-page editorial, L.A. Times, 1/16, Kevin Phillips (a 'political historian', don't get me started) titled, "Eerie Parallels ?" states, "the (supposed) new paradigm asserts these are economic times unlike any other ....but the similarities to the 1920's are unsettling....and don't count on Greenspan to save us." Talks about long-existing decent pattern of markets doing worse, the year after pres. elections in U.S., Interest Rates going higher, and, in his opinion, "neither Bush nor Gore has even the remotest qualification to be a national crisis manager", as the fulcrums for "eerie parallels between now, and the late 1920's." Of course, no one tells the reader, that tons of people have been saying that, for many years already, right ? We also are not told his actual, L.T. track record, as usual.... 2) front-page, L.A,. Times, 1/21, chart of "IRF" titled, "Power Surge....All's Right in its Industry Sector....Sweet Spot", VERY late, as usual, super-bullish article....only AFTER big rise, see it ? Remember, I gave IRF out herein near the lows, with other "Semiconductor" stocks back then....yet not one analyst liked it cheap, as usual....the pattern never changes....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) I told you so....AA and RLM are correcting, right from the moment CNBC fell in love with them.... 2) Fri., 9:35 am, CNBC had pres. of "SYBS", another Tech. stock which I gave out herein near its lows a while ago....anyway, Bill Griffeth misleadingly (and late, as usual) said, "looks like your stock may be coming back...." Gee, Bill, looks to us like it has already COME back, up from 6 to 23, from its easily seen saucer base....the pattern never changes.... 3) Kathleen something, on CNBC, Fri., after the close, mentioned what I have been suggesting: that the current near-inverted shape of the 'Treasury yield curve', prtends a potential recession and a correction among extended stocks....the last two times this happened, were in 1987 and 1990, 'nuff said.... 4) O.C. Register, 1/21, "Investors back off of Western Digital"....hah....as usual, they all go negative, right at the bottom in WDC, which I gave you herein....the pattern rarely changes....better-than-expected earnings came out....those 'eps' were still (lower) losses --- but the stock ROSE, right ? Next.... 5) L.A. TImes, front-page , "Buffett's U-turn on Bell stock leaves followers in the dust"....as I said, "copycat investors' who bought "BI" after hearing he had, paid around 6-7, only to see it correct back to the 4 area as he sold real quickly....Buffett made about 50 % real fast, most all others lost...."blind late following" is not enough....as I mentioned earlier, he did not do well, holding KO, G, DIS, U., BRK/B, in declines ....6) I love it....I gave you "TOX" herein near its lows a last year, and NO other professionals even remotely liked it....and, finally, an investment firm initiates coverage with a 'buy' around $ 10., already way up from around $ 2., see it ? Both firms are located in the same area of Minn., hmmmmm, I wonder how that happened....re-read the section on "local stocks" in my "Scenarios" booklet....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) the analyst who evidently put a new Buy out on our 'BBC', last week, recinded it, Thursday.... 2) why there was a big article, Jan. issue Financial Planning Mag., about the Yacktman Fund, whose assets have fallen from $ 1.1 Bill. in 1997, to $ 120. MM now, is beyond me....But there is a "PSYCLE sm" lesson, in that he stayed with "strictly only the lowest-PE stocks, with no stops or technical analysis or industry group rotation" all along, down -15 % in 1997, unchanged in 1998, then -21 % in 1999, and, as you might expect, has well underperformed the 'parabolic/sexy stocks with no earnings' for years now....Its manager was a former 'Morningstar fund mgr. of the year' in 1991, talk about a drop from stage 4....he argues, as many have in recent years, that historically, highest PE stocks do much worse, than lowest PE stocks, which, of course, has Not been the case for years now....again proving my point, that "PE's" canNOT be a predictor of future stock price performance....He has refused to ever buy ANY Tech./Medical stocks, even the dperessed ones in bases, as we do....Of interest, they mentioned he bought MO, DSP, DFS, FC, much higher, with no stops (I gave you FC and DFS at recent lows herein, and am watching MO), saying, "buying value (stocks) is no longer in fashion" on the street....saying, "the problem is that he is not a marketing-driven guy" (meaning, he stuck to his guns/concept, and didn't join the internet mania just for the sake of joinging), and, "the same publications that lionized and revered him in 1991, criticize him today" (a normal "PSYCLE sm" nuance near lows, right ?). The article ended by inferring, that, as I say, a lot of other go-go fund mgrs. today in the parabolic funds, may end up going through what this guy has, soon, when those stocks come back down to earth ....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) confusing the issue further, the Jan. issue Financial Planning Mag. says, there were only 2,056 "distinct U.S. equity mutual funds as of 9/30/99"....and only 26 of them had cash positions over 20. %....BTW, in an article, "Bear Necessities", Morningstar now defines a 'bear market' as --- are you ready for this --- "those months (yes, they said months, not longer time periods) in which the S & P loses more than - 3. %"....Only once since 1975 (in late 1987), were there two consecutive such 'bear months'....and only 37 out of those 300 months had even -3 % drops....their inference, is that we are still 'due' for a 'bear market' by their definition ....Of course, we have already HAD one, among 50-60 % of all stocks, the last two years, right ? But they did not mention that....he points to similarities to the 1925 to 1929 period, with the first few Fed moves, and talk, having no effect on parabolic stocks, while the band played on, for a while, which, of course, is kinda true today on many levels.... 2) USA Today, 1/22, "Strong earnings surprise the experts....Y2K could not slow tech growth in last 4th Q"....as usual, too many overpaid/overrated analysts missed all this, in the Y2K hype/warnings, etc. Next....

f) L.A. TImes editorial, 1/20, "Keep and eye on the monopolists", a kinda socialist guy says Bill Gates' net worth alone, now exceeds that of the bottom 45 % of ALL people in the U.S.A., and just 'B. Gates + P. Allen + W. Buffett' net worth combined, exceeds the GDP of the worlds' poorest 41 countries, with their 550 million people (wow)....The wealth of just the 'Forbes 400', at around $ 1. trillion, increased just in the last two years by --- get this --- $ 225,000 an hour, at a 40-hours a week....and now is equivalent to 1/8 of our entire GDP.... and, that 42 % of all stock market value increases the last two years, were garnered by the top 1. % of citizens in the U.S. And 76 MM of all U.S. people have virtually no assets at all....He then argues to break up MSFT, which I have no opinion on....what do you read from this ?

As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....