1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Still more of the same, smaller 'near their lows buy list', a small but serviceable Puts list, eh, and tons of paper Gains in Techs bought near recent lows only....last week, I spoke about an 'overshoot rally', to sucker-in more late-high-buyers, and that's what we seem to be getting, S.t. at least....but I still do NOT think huge additional % gains will occur from already-up levels, and we need more pullbacks to form stronger patterns first in Techs, etc. But was now TOO LATE to 'begin' to pay-up for S.T. late-stage 2 stocks, dig ? and, notice, as only I predicted, so many already-bounced Techs, etc., pulling back, some big-time, from reaching initial upside and resistance levels !

Wed. 8:30, Pisani correctly pointed out Investors Intelligence's "% of stocks above their 10-day and 30-day MA's", and, at 75 % and 65 % respectively, this proves again, my first-to-predict broad/many issues-advance-from-depressed-levels concept given right from December lows....but, now, again, as I have been saying just recently, too many stocks are too high, S.T., and too many latecomers are too bullish, S.T., so we are not getting carried away, right ? but, also, as I said, after better pullbacks, I expect more new rises down the road....but you should have raised more cash at recent S.T. recovery highs....learn the pattern....

Who else, at NASDAQ 2,300, was super-bullish, while 'the 95 %'; were all calling for 2,100 or lower ? yup, not many besides us....but, again, only now, Wed., Schwab's Marty Cunnigham, says, "across the board, Tech. stocks look real good here....", meaning by me, caution, and 'sell on strength' for most, dig ? and, do NOT get caught-up nor emotional/excited....also, Wed. 8 am, CNBC interviewed 3 'now bullish on bonds' analysts, each guaranteeing the Fed will lower rates 1/4 or 1/2 % soon, so REAL careful there, too late/high to begin buying those, as I said earlier here....

and, 1/23 WSJ headline, "new interest in big0name Tech. stocks", in their 'abreast of the market' section, again, proves my "PSYCLE sm" pattern, yes ? late stage 2....gee, how many times/ways did I have to explain this dynamic ? take many Gains, and buy still-depresseds, hold cash for others after they pullback, buy at least "some" Puts up here, and stay happy....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) CNBC idiot Pisani, Tue. 10 am, actually (mis)said, "hotel and lodging stocks are doing well, due to the recent Fed reduction in I.R.'s" ....but, uh, excuse me ? this one is so beyond logic, no need to comment further here....total BS.... 2) note, as predicted here, the recent OPEC attempt to try to get Crude up again, by 'talking lower production levels' ain't working.... 3) and, late/high as usual, PIsani, Tue. 11 am, finally showed 'double-bottom last Dec.' chart of Comp. Tech. stocks, as if anyone else, especially Media or Analysts, would ever notice that near the lows, in time to take proper advantage, as we do so often, ay ? ....4) similarly, he finally mentioned our CNC at $ 16, bullishly - when, in fact, only I gave it out herein at obvious base low, yes ? ditto with TSG, RCL, CCL, all which I was, as usual, the first/only to give out herein in bases, much lower, as usual, in the 'travel' I.G. I liked back then, as breaking up higher - way too late, etc.....the pattern rarely changes....

5) the recently-depr. Foreign stocks I was, as usual, first to give out, are rising....again, only after they are up, will Wall St. or the Media even notice, right ? ....6) as DCLK rises further, along with other depr. 'Net stocks here given at lows, so what else is new....but already up to initial upside targets, as 'the 95%' just begin to feel better about them, perfect late stage 2 behavior, yes ? ....7) and, opposite stocks again (blowing that incorrectly-assumed-by others non-'link'), Bonds fell, as stocks rose....will they never learn ? ....8) with Biotechs newly popping recently, and Tues., first time in a while (I was first, as usual, to give, GLGC, GENE, BGEN, AFFX, etc., near base lows herein for you), we still would NOT get all excited here, late (no emotion, right ?), vs. other I.G.'s with better reward-risk ratios FROM HERE....as with many Telecom already-ups, they are JUST having S.T. stage 5 or 6 rallies, dig ?

9) Wed., CNBC reported that "internet commerce" stocks are up + 45 % just in Jan. 2001 so far !, proving once again, that, a) buying Low always beats buying high, because one gets bigger % moves (well, duh....), and, b) that exploiting tax-selling technical patterns, beats getting-negative fundamentally, after-the-fact, every time, yes ? are you learning ? ....10) notice big S.T. pullbacks in Banks, S & L's, and regional bank stocks - could it be THEY 'know something less bullish about I.R.'s forward', that "the experts/analysts/economists" do not ? you heard it here first, of the recently-now-formed 'saucer base' in rates/yields, yes ? are we good, and/or better than all of them, or what....might rates actually rise somewhat from recent lows ? if so, I willcertainly be the first.only foreseeing this new coming S.T. not-recognized-by-the-95 %-yet trend ? ....11) might I, as usual, also be the first/only to give out EIX and PCG and SRE at recent panic lows herein for you ?

12) note, we had our first IPO in 5 weeks "PEET"....only came out at $ 8, rose just a little....sanity, finally.... 13) and, this understandibly pisses me off: Thu., CNBC continued its INCORRECT and LATE (as usual, learn the patterns !) puffing of 'homebuilding' stocks, their emotional-reporter-gal (are there any other kind ?) IN-correctly gushing, 11:23 am, "look at those homes- stocks surging again", when, in fact, TOL, PHM, KBH, etc., shown, have all FALLEN recently (as only I first predicted from recent highs), yes ? amazing inept on their part....so what else is new ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) amazing, but, again, normal, CNBC, Tue., finally did a story, Bill Griffeth (don't get me started) on "High-yield and Junk Bonds: might they be a little more attractive now ?" - only after nice S.T. rises ALREADY, as usual, right ? and, reported in 1/24 L>A.T., "Junk Bond rebound lures more issues to market"< means, if possible, more debt will hit the street, increasing supply, yes ? so, it is again, now too late to 'begin' to buy them - as the pattern rarely changes.... 2) for the umpteenth time, CNBC, Tue. late, asks, "is the market going to begin to pop a bit ?", only after they already have....oy....

3) and, of course, only after they fell, and I was first/only to have predicted from tops eherin, Tue. at 12:45, Joe Kernan mentioned that, now, analysts are 'rejiggering their future earnings expectations lower" on HMO stocks....the pattern rarely changes.... 4) in an amazingly incorrect, misleading and stupid headline, 1/21 front-page L.A.T., "Warnings help cushion blow of profit drops in 4 th quarter" - my goodness, tons of people lost tons of money in tons of Tech. and other stocks, BECAUSE of the 'warnings', yes ? unbelieveably wrong.... 5) oh, and more 'pans' to the Media idiots previously reported herein, trying to recently make that supposed world-altering-invention announcement of that "Ginger" thing up north (remember ?), turns out, at most, it is just a stupid people-cycle-thing....what a bunch of crap....and people still want the info. the Media spews out like that ? yup....human nature rarely changes.....more proof mf my "PSYCLE sm" at work....6) Tom Costello, ever-sensationalizing, Wed. 9 am, effused, "the Biotech sector has had a PHENOMENAL rally here....", uh,NO....their previous parabolic rise of one thousand percent was "PHENOMENAL" - their current pops are even SMALLER % than many other Tech. groups stocks have had lately, yes ? what a dunce....but he may contribute to more latecomers beginning to buy those up here - in stage 5 or 6, right ? and, therefore, you know what is likely to happen thereafter, ahead, yes ? and, at 12:20 Wed., Mark Haynes IN-correctly exclaimed, "the NASDAQ is climbing, up 32 points, to 2870...." yeah, right....not.... 7) Pisani, Wed. 11:11, IN-correctly sensationalized, "with MRK lower, the Drug stocks are breaking down...." , when, in fact, they 'broker down' when they fulfilled the "I predicted herein first" rolling tops, easily seen a while ago, yes ? the continuing lower moves recently are just stage 6, perhaps....

8) as I mentioned last time here, most everyone reporting on CNBC, was absolutely gushing about 'all-time record earnings for all Energy companies' - interesting, since, as you have been taught, their 'stock prices patterns' are NOT breaking out/up at all, dig ? actually, not very volatile for quite a while, dig ? ....9) amazing, the day after CNBC and analysts finally go negative S.T. on big Drug stocks (reported and given from tops here first, right ?), they all pop nicely....the pattern rarely changes ! ....10) 1/23 WSJ, chart titled, "Telecom (stock) troubles"< comes out, as usual, only after huge price drops, negatively, dig ? the pattern rarely changes..... 11) absolutely misleading WRONG headline, 1/24 L.A.T., "BRCM stock leaps on news of beating street earnings estimates" - uh, excuse me ? since when is a stock up only 5, to 134, "leaping" ? so many Media people are dangerous idiots....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) another Energy stock, SUN, and COC, announced Tue., it their its greatest earnings Q ever - and the new dumb CNBC reporter, 9 am, was puzzled at trying to say, "the stocks each rose -" then corrected, "I mean, fell 3/8, on the news...." , giving that 'gee, I wonder how any stock can fall if their earnings beat the street so handily' dumbfounded look....next.... 2) the Govt. announced its 'index of leading economic indicators' fell in Dec. the most in over 5 years - since near the lows in Calif. R.E. that I predicted herein back then....more confirmation for us, yes ? ....3) as AXP falls further, proves once again that 'meeting good earnings expectations' means NOTHING, as don't most fundamentals - and recall who was first/only to predict its top herein....

3) this past week, many big-name firms announced lay-offs, of thousands of people each, LU, JCP, AOL, many Techs, etc., more confirmation of the I-predicted-the-recession-here-first.... 4) while I did not see it, note, as normal, once analysts again liked MCD stock recently, around 34, up from 37 already, Wed. it rolled over from obvious stage 5 pattern, 32, to 27, to 30, hah.... 4) an ex-hero of mine, ex-Fed chair Paul Volcker, on CNBC, Wed. 9:34, agrees, that "1-year economic forecasts of anything, as in deficits or surplusses, is unrealistic and dangerous." ....5) and, just FYI, according to testimony Wed., the gross GDP/GNP of the USA was/is roughly min. $ 30 to 40 trillion a year....pit that against , say, a $ 1.5 trillion tax-cut, and similar amount in supposed 'surplus' (don't get me started)....and, $ 11 trillion in total stocks market value....and $ 9 trillion in 'corp. bonds' out there ? and, $ 13 trillion in Govt. bonds around ? and, 'only' a max. $ 500 billion USA trade deficit last year....

5) headline, 1/24 L.A.T., "Mexico feeling effects of slowing US economy", needs no elaboration, normal/expected, yes ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) and now the conintuing saga of B-firms who loved themfrom highs whre I gave herein as puts, finally 'lowering' their opinions on stocks only after big falls (but, still, NEVER giving outright sales unless at lows, with no stops in the meantime all the way down): add, ADCT, yesterday....'nuff said.... 2) once again, late/high as usual, Multex begins bullish coverage on TVLY, a depr. base I never even saw (see it ?) , already from 10 to 23, saying "profitability promised ahead"....of course, you know what is likely to happen next to its stock, yes ? we shall see.... 3) while i have always respected him above-averagely, Bernie Schaeffer's favorite new long is 'AC', which, if you see, is already way up and at a high level....why ? can't anyone else out there find depresed stocks ?

4) Michael (not as good as his rep) Murphy, now sees a 'buying panic ahead", especially in NASDAQ stocks....while he continued to love them from their nmuch-higher tops, he still loves the Biotechs, and all other Techs here (already up nicely off their lows)....he expects positive earnings surprises, and lower I.R.'s (but who doesn't ?), so is saying nothing a ton of other latecomers are now saying (where were they at the lows with me ?) ....5) and INSP and TXN, now join the 'downgraded near lows after loving them near highs by big B-firms' list....amazing ....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) another in a huge list of reasons to hate everything Political: Tue. CNBC reported that ex-CClinton staffers had - get this - removed all letter "w" keyboard keys from all computers and typewriters before they left to make room for new Bush people....this is beyond BS, and shows once again why I detest most everything about politics.... 2) I laughed when, as umpoteen times before, i read that tons of EIX and PCG employees have had way too much of their $, and retirement $, in their stock....to which I have always said, 'tough toenails'....if they refuse to acknowledge cycles and patterns and diversify, etc., they deserve to lose....hey, I have lost a bunch of acquaintences over the years begging them to let me help them....they lose, and I lose....what a shame....but more proof that human nature patterns will NEVER change....next....

3) L.A.T. 1/22, "Tech. firms starving for skilled leaders", is REAL interesting, since all I hear/read are how many people exist to help Tech. companies....not only a shortage of 'middle workers', but more, specialists, and 'leaders', is huge, and not a good sign....which, if one DID 'link' (and we rarely do) hind-sightedly, the huge, normal, expetced stock-price-drops among Web companies, with the now-known-only-after-the-fact 'mediocre mgmt. skills' in those places, becomes quite illustrative, yes ? but, of course, when I caught heat on TV for predicting the Net declines, I knew NOTHING of 'mgmt. abilities', did I ? we just used the charts and sentiment patterns, yes ? how easy and quickly discerned knowledge was that great prescience by us ?

4) L.A.T., 1/22, recent poll, showing, "College freshmen rate Money as chief goal", said, "a whopping 74 % of 1.1 mm such students care less about status, power, becoming skilled at anything, being original, creating artistic work, inventing products or services or helping scienctific discoveries, the envirnment, helping local communitites, promoting racial harmony, social values", than just plain money (although 'raising a family' came a close second).....the items I just listed were ranked lowest in interest by freshmen recently....This, of course, says a lot about people, parents, morals, don't get me started....but, then, we have done pretty well in the USA since 1960's and 70's with such skewed values, ay ? what do YOU think about this study's finding ? only 60 % said it was "important to become an authority in one's field", in otherwords, they don't care HOW they get it,m just get the money - perfect IPO/Tech. Ind. mentality, ay ? next.....

5) the aging L.T. Sen. Byrd of W. Va., Wed. 9:16, said that $ 1.6 trillion (the est. tax cut amt. bandied about recently), represents $ 1.60 "for every second since Jesus Christ was born"....his warning of too-short-term thinking is kinda wise....asking, "are you thinking only of right now, or of your grandchildren ?" - neat....however, as a super-constant-spending Democrat, I must add, he helped contribute to the huge deficits and spending the USA has created, most of it needlessly and incorrectly, the last few decades....what do YOU think ? his L.T. perspective was actually interesting....he cautions that cutting taxes too much here, will mean not-enuf $ for defense, environment, health, education, etc., dig ? your opinion ? but, then, he says 'no contstraints oin spending' has been 'bad', but simultaneously, argues for continual spending, and debt reduction....uh, how to do both, Senator ? oy, sorry, guy, you are missing all of it a bit....but Greenspan echoed Byrd's mention that "the preponderance of Govt. and Econonomists' projections, even S.T., have been so wrong, so often....", so kudos to them....and, last, Ed Yardeni, an ex-hero economist of mine from the early 1980's, on CNBC Thu. 11;44, said, regarding the tax-cuts and surplusses, "hey, we have a $ 5 trillion problem out there, in the Govt. collecting bigger taxes leading to bigger and bigger surplusses..." Uh, excuse me ? dfefine "problem" ? if they can pay down debt.....but I see his point -LOwer Taxes NOW....

6) hey, turns out J. Moorlach, who put $ 80 mm into bonds on EIX and PCG, ewas specifically warned, in writing, back in Sep. '99, by Fitch's and analysts, of their fundamental woes coming, before he made his buys for O.C. school district pension $, and J.M. said he was unaware....your comment here: _________ ....7) according to 1/24 L.A.T., Clinton pardoned another proven crook, M. Rich (don't get us started), perhaps he will pay Clinton in the futre, ay ? great sytem, politics, ay ? ....8) and newest commercial for GTW computers, tag-line, "Gateway - because people rule" - uh, as if, say, 'animals rule' instead ? dumb.

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....