1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) have U forgotten to short Crude Oil on strength, now that, as only I predicted, not on front pages anymore (re-read my Bookelets).... 2) recall when only I mentioned l.t. low probable in cash Coffee commod., a while ago herein, as i had/have the few previous times Coffee was blasted by the idiot bears at l.t. base lows, which I also predicted back then herein, at same price levels !, well, now that Coffee has risen a bunch more recently, as predicted, only now, as usual, the idiots are going bullish, get it ?< the pattern rarely changes....so, as with all stage 4 moves, watch for a l.t. top in Coffee, as with Copper, etc., right ?, next....
3) I want to remind y'all, that 'commodities', generally, have had 3 previous l.t. bull moves this past century: 1906-23, 1933-53, and 1968-81, and, perhaps another one started in 1999 (which I predicted, s.t. only, back then, herein, but did not expect cppper, nor oil, to rise as much as they have/did)....sorta kinda similar to stocks' roughly 3 or 4. 15-20-yr. cycles ?, hmmmm.... 4) and, hey, guess what ?, as I told U to watch 4, the TYX yield bd, to 4.592 %, which wb bullish 4 bonds if so, hmmmm....this I.R. is now below 3/04's reaction low in yields ....recall, all the doomers have been automatically (and incorrectly, re-read my Booklets) 'linking' their 'lower DXY forever', to 'higher l.t. I.R.'s forever', ay ?, C Y we rarely 'link' ?
5) it is rare that I am incorrect with Semis/Chip stks, as I was in a couple recently, longside, but no damage, perhaps wb a fobd ?, we R not attached to outcome, as taught.... 60 and more pot. bearish for bonds, higher yields ahead likely, signal, via TRA and EWT, who said, "hedge funds held a record high net-long 106,000 T-bond positions, eclispsing the previous one-wk.record from 10/98, the last time bonds peaked, and I.R.'s rose thereafter".....get it ?, a normally bearish contrary trade....btw, in 5/04, they were net short 72,000 contracts - right near bond bottom prices, and bonds rallied thereafter....get it ? , and, last, they showed int. chart since 2/00, showing that, as t-bond yields rose and fell, the SPX rose & fell parallel-ly, int., since the 95 % incorrectly assume(ed) an inverse, not parallel relationship, dig ?< rates rose, so did stks, rates fell, so did stks....and one more thing: as I have chronicled herein previously, bonds mgrs 'say' they expect yields to rise, but the are LONG a long of bonds, dig ?, they 'do' differently from whqat they 'say'....hmmmm....i again rest my 'no direct auto. links' conceopt, re-read bmy Booklets....me ? i would still personally lean bearish on bonds, higher yields, as U know....
6) an aside, am wondering how/y my remaining long bond M.F.'s prices are falling, while the cash t-bond is rising lately ?, oy....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) exactly as only I (as usual) predicted herein, am now just beginning 2 C some of the idiot perma-dollar-bears-from-the-Euro's-highs NL's, starting to hedge their forward statements, dig ?, re-read my Bookelts, U know what happens from here, historically, yes ?.... 2) while normally we would eschew fundamentals, no one I know wants to fly anymore, period, if they dont have to, dig ?, yet the idiots who loved the Airline stocks a few yrs. ago at their highs, when I rec'd. shorting herein, then hated them at their post-9/11 lows when I rec'd. buying them herein, recently, as I mentioned, liked them anew at heir rallied-highs....and, of course, they are all now falling....you're welcome....the pattern rarely changes, R U learning them ?
3) reading new headlines wkd, "poor Ebay earnings report scuttles mkt.", gee, who was the 1st and only to foresee ''the end of the Ebay run, fundanmentally+, likely coming", herein 4 U recently ?, oh, where are my kudos ?, next....should be int. to watch the Ebay drop unfold of the coming 6-12-18 months, ay ?, as the pattern rarely changes, and most always repeats similarly, re-read my stuff.... 4) oh, and now, read several, headlines, "crude oil inventories soar unexpectedly", get it ?, ditto for me and my predictions herein, you're welcome....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) hah, to the 'credit bears', as we just read where evidently, US consumder debt FELL last month, like, - $ 8 B., wow....shows either, people have been paying things off, or, they have been saving or not spending as much a.o.a. sudden, hmmmm....either way, 'if' higher credit expansion is 'bad', then wouldnt lower credit be 'good' or ;better' ?, see why PSYCLE-ists rarely 'link' fundamental' items, etc., re-read my Booklets.... 20 and, just read, exactly as I predicted, and the perma-dollar-bears are wrong yet again, turns out, 'capital inflow into the US dollar in Jan. 04 so far, rose to + $ 83 B, the higest mo. level since June 04, hah, take that, perma-bears, get it ?, next....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) a B.S. gal, as usual, only now, highlighted already-way-way-up Coal stks, get it ?, where were they all, when I was the 1st/only to give many ouyt at lows, couple yrs. ago herein ?, the pattern rarely changes, re-read my Booklets....
2) more bullish news for bonds, i.e., lower probable yields (NOT higher yields, get it ?, as Morgan Stanley's big year-ahead symposium saw - get this - 86 % attendees firmly expect yields to RISE in 2005, so re-read my Booklets on contrary trading, where bond-yields are concenred this time, get it ?, next....the pattern is likely to repeat.... 3) but - TRA been-bearish -forever-on-bonds NL, just wrote, 'sooner or later, due to slower China growth, US debt, etc., the Fed will have to LOWER interest rates anew"....funny, they now take the cake for being the most aambiguous and mostly worthless-except-as-fadeable NL.... 4) and, then, their sister doomer NL, TDR, was 'stunned to discover that Foreigners have been reassured by Bush's re-election, buying $ 80 B. in US assets since Dec. 04, way more tahn enuf to pay for the USA's budget deficit the last 3 months, leaving $ for US bond purchases", they are puzzled - PSYCLE sm traders are not, of course....they are wrong again likely, we correct again likely, next....geez, these NL's have been terrible for decades, yet people keep wasting their $ on them, and they are way well backed - while I am not, and have never been....a real shame, they all lose, as does the world....
5) and, fri. 21st, B. S. said the "TLT" bond 'went bullish', and that "B.S. went bullish on bonds back in Dec. 04....cant stop bonds"....oh, yeah ? ....I am fading him, as U know.... 6) as I have railed against them herein over the years, the Economist MNag has gotten ridiculously doomy on the USA, which, in contrariness, is probably a sign that that wont occur, dig ? ....they, and most of the rest of the world, I have been saying, is so jealous of our success, they have been taking the opp., esp. post-9/11, to bash everything they can about US, yes ?, and, still, we survive and support all others.... 7) and, i just read yet another ridiculously illogical ignorant useless 'big comment' from the ever-bearish-on-RE, TDR NL, to wit: "even if RE prices dounbled from recent highs, NO one would be ANY richer, because, whatever one received for selling on'es home, it would still cost the same amount to buy another, so no net effect"....uh, excuse me ?, first, in a way, that statement has always BEEN true, tecnically, even from at all previous toips and bottoms in RE, yes ?, and, second, not if one buys the new home ina cheaper area, ay ?, which, of course, TDR never mentioned....next....
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) Prechter recently continued his 'almost broken-clock bearish on almost everything since after the 1987 crash', but did point out a few salient items regarding the RE bubble we both forsee:, to wit: RE and rents continued to generally fall in the USA, AFTER the late-1930's years, into the 1940's, even as stocks bottomed and rose a lot, years B4 R.E. stopped falling, after the 1929 crash, dig ?, and, he reminded us, as I have many times, of the relative un-hedgeability and illiquidity in RE, vs. LFA's....
2) a small rebuttal to new MONWY mag. (dgms) article by Robert Shiller, who is now real bearish l.t. on RE (as i am, a little, but), because, as usual, a 95%-ot-the-time fadeable rag as MONEY puffs him I say INcorrectly (as i reported herein back then), as 'the guy who wrote 'irrational exuberance' (true) and forsaged the y2k stks crash....the fact is, that he did say "I.E." to Greenspan - but he said it in 12/96 !, way B4 aa big tech stks price RISES, dig ?, he was way, way early, dig ?, and wrong, for years - B4 getting vindicated after 2000-2001.... anyway, he only-recently updated him reprinted book to include a R.E. crash coming, using the same arguments and warnings all othe rearly R.E. bears have been using - nothing new....dig ? he even acknowledges that ''no one knows when the crash will start/occur" (if so, then why waste all our time writing ?), and, "there is no hope of explaining the recent home-price-rises solely on pop., econ., building items, nor I.R.'s" (uh, excuse me ?, then how would HE explain it ?, he doesnt say - dgms)....and, he did at least correctly point out that, when RE fell from late 1990, the Fed was LOWERING interest rates, not rasing them (again I would ask, so whwrefrom the decline and rise, since than ?, he again does not explain, dgms)....and, that, "since 1980, LA R.E. prices have not risen much more than those in Milwaukee", interesting....and, he showed "r.e. px. chart usa, back to 1890', whosed that, r.e. generally FELL in value, from 1890's to the early 1940's (huh ? I dont see how, do you ?), and,, he says, there have only been 2 periods of l.t. r.e. price rises: from 1945 to 1957, and from 1997 to 2004.... Last, as i have given him his kudos herein last year, his 'housing puts' biz idea in Syracuse NY has been a moderate success, and I hope still, it will spread nationwide....oh, and as I have recnated many times, the fact is, that, i.e., a home price rise from, say, $ 16 K in 1948, to, say, $ 200. K in 2004, is 'only' an 'adjusted for inflation' rise of under 1 % a year....not vg, esp. sompared to stks, etc., altho he failed to mention how R.E. is generally leveraged at least 5-or-10-or-20-to-1....
3) and, just fyi, the USA's GDP is around $ 12 trillion, the EU, 25 countries together, is around $ 13 trillion, Japan around $ 4.7 T, germany 2.7 T, and China currently 1.7 T....just keep this in mind when U read incessant crap about China exceeding the USA by the year 2040, etc., oy....and just for perspective, know that Italy's GDP is, today, still larger than that of China, think about it....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
1 more Longs, neat....
and,
5 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
1/2 pos. stk. SEHO (0.19- to 0.36+) for % Gain....1/2 pos. puts ACAT (27+ to 23++) for % G....all puts DAL (7++ to 4+) for VQ % G....and, 1/2 pos. puts COMPX, TRAN, OEX, at Monday the 25th's lows, for VQ big % Gains....
and/but, longs, JBLU, ESST bd, ISSI, bal. PLNR, ACCL, bal. RPMM bd ?, fo ?, and, puts, GOOG bo ? dnspy, BPFH bo ?, for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 CEGE @ 6 1/2 ?, 1/3 BLDP @ 6.1-, 1/3 TQNT @ 3 1/4 ?, KKD never bt.
1/3 SPRT @ 5.1, 1/4 CLTK again @ 0.80-, 1/4 BLLD @ 1.50 wcs, 1/3 ETLT @ 0.40+ spec,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): STTS fobd, SEHO @ 0.14 fobd, RPMM bd ?, 1/4 SINX @ 0.02- super spec, ESST bd ?....
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, KKD, MCDT bd, TLAB bd, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
added, EWJ @ 11-, COMPX @ 2150+, puts on some Bonds, 30-yr.March, @ 114+ ? (TNH5), and 10-yr. bond @ 113-, maybe even the major stk. indexes, like, COMPX @ 2100, OEX @ 570-, etc., to,
1/4 GOOG fobo ? @ 200+, BPFH bo, no ?, EVG @ 41+, Crude Oil @ 49+ again,
"Repeats":
copper again around 1.47+, ACAT @ 27 again, BKMU @ 12+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CHNR, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, INDU, SPY, GOOG fobo ?, NDX, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
several nice pops among given-from-lows techs:
SEHO 0.36 up 0.19 wow (S), DXY 83.99 (h) ?, TQNT 3.41 up 0.18, DXY 84.08, ETLT 0.48 up 0.04, up/further since last NL here....
and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:
SPRT 6.70 up (S), but then 5.85 oy, SFE 1.87, 1.65 msa, bopb, DSS 2.42, 3.00 msf, no, STTS 5.66 dn bopbo, eh, PSY 22.54 stbo ?, BLLD 1.68 dn, msa....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
TQNT ms, DSS 2.70 dn a, SEBL 8.91 stbd sos, PSY soso, PMCS 9.64 up, msa, L. fobo ?, CNN cbo, RPMM ?, SVNT 2.75, 2.95 sos ?, msa....and, still once again, every rallied stock must bo further, and that is not too likely, s.tr. anyway, as I recently warned....also, RMBS dn to 17+, 21+, 18, oy, WM 42.44 up, ctbo ? nope....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
10-yr. bond TYH Mar., 113- dn to 111+, DAL 4.40 dn 1.57 wow (S), COMPX 2111, 2002 (S) 1/2, OEX 570+, 557 (S) 1/2, TRAN 3654, 3466 nice (S) 1/2, ACAT sow, EWJ. down/lower since last time here ....also QQQQ bd....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
COMPX 2028, TRAN 3535, OEX 562, up, EVG, UCBH, BKMU dn, fobo, BPFH fobo, Copper, posas, Crude 49.5 (B), 46.9, see ?, ACAT + 1 3/4, the March 30-yr. t-bond 114 10/32 up, ctbo, non, are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when they should be falling more....and might GOOG 205, 177, be another fobo ? C ? sow....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
*** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depessed....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, CPN obpbo, AMD/recons obpbo, SFE opb, CEGE, to, ETLT, to, CGFW opbo, SINX fobd, TXEO another super spec. ?, BLLD ?, BLDP db ?, PCLE tln, CY obpbo, CMOS tln, ESPD obpbo, STTS no ? bd ?, SKIL ?, SWY fobd ?, SGI. obpbo, PKS ltp ?, to, RPMM ? fobd ?, TSM tln, NYB ?, SONSE, SYNO ?, LSCC opb, ISIS ovbpbo, SANM obpbo, TQNT opbo, XOMA tln, CLTK, ADCT ovbpbo, SUNW obpb, SPRT bd ?....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, WIW, to, PMCS recons, eh, RMBS obpbo, DCS ?, ZF obpbo, EVC obpbo, to, CNN obpbo,
and, watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both are already around 11+ and 13++ now, so too high ?, yielding 15 % each here anyway ?, eh, tln ?,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:
note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....
added, EWJ, crude oil again on strength, bonds on strength ?, indexes, AAPL fobo ?, XMSR ?, SBUX ? (see above), to, DAL oso, GOOG fobo ?, GCD ?, UCBH, ACAT, EVG, BKMU bo ?....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES