1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Well, "Got Puts" ? (more important than milk at this point ?) Obviously, many of our extended stocks are falling, confirming, as i told you, a worse-looking market, taking profits, holding more cash, etc. recently here....I realize the Put option premiums on Internets, for instance, were big, but, not to have even tried one ? It was so obvious, S.T. Hey, maybe we'll get more Putting opportunities in them, when/if they have stage 5 rallies again ? Elsewhere, you know how I detest "index" stuff, but, the major indexes themselves, came REAL close to cracking, Friday, and are close to breaking their S.T. necklines....Also, obviously, I added a TON more Puttables, in sec. (7) below....I hope I don't have to remind you what this means....Actually, the most bearish element here, is that every single even moderately bearish comment I am hearing/reading, acknowledges "just a small pullback" --- yet almost NONE allows for a bigger decline....hmmmm....you also know what THAT means....Of course, this won't prevent us from buying our long-siders, with stops....They are two different, independent things, right ?
oh, and Richard Saxton, kwhy-tv, finally invited me back on, Tues. Feb. 16, from around 10 am, to around 10:30 am, pst, just FYI....it would have been nice to have shown people all the "tax-selling depresseds" as I wanted to, back in December, when he should have had me on, but I fell through the cracks....so what else is new....I am appreciative for any chance I get to "show" my patterns to a large audience....Of import, even though I have shown him everything, and offered to teach him gratis, he continues to doubt my veracity, and has yet to even view my materials, though every time we talk, I tell him pretty- much exactly what is going to happen next, to specific industry groups, then I fax him updates to prove I was first/only to have predicted what I did, yet, I still have to beg him, and other Media people, for even the least amount of interest from them....proving, again, how dastardly and ignorant and uncaring too many Financial Media people can be, actually often hurting many of America's investors, but I digress....
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and (5). Very clear sections. You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) 1) as I said, last Thu., some Internets had already approached their V.S.T. stage 5 targets/lows ....see sec. (5) below.... 2) note the decent pop off our predicted S.T. double- bottom, in the Nikkei. index.... 3) yet more proof: the So. Calif. street I used, to call the late 1990 top, the early 1997 bottom, and the July/August 1998 S.T. top, in residential R.E., now has two properties with "for sale" signs-- with "reduced" on them.... 4) also, note the new S.T. top, in all "semiconductors" and related stocks....5) and, note the pops occuring among the REIT's which I was also the first/only to like, near their recent lows....6) note potential S.T. top among the "Bells" I have given herein as Puttables a few times....
b) 1) not a prediction of anything, but, Frank Barbera, kwhy-tv, Thu. 21st, showed overlay of the "total market value" of U.S. stock markets, vs. Japan's stock markets, and, as you might surmise, in 1992, theirs was worth twice ours, but now, our M.V. is roughly $ 11.2 trillion, while Japan's M.V. is only $ 2.5 trillion....ain't gonna stay that way forever.... 2) neat--- IBM comes out with higher-than-expected eps, and the stock, which I gave you herein as a Put around 190, gets whacked....CNBC gal reports, Fri. 22nd, 9:30 am, that all the analysts she spoke with, said, "IBM is solid as a rock....some B-firms are even raising IBM price targets"....famous last words, stage 5.... 3) cnbc, Fri. 22nd, 9:50 am, interviewing Papp-Amer. M. Fund mgrs., a lady caller, asked if she should sell her "PVH" (a stock WE like, herein) "because it is down so much" from where she bought it (get it ? stage 7/stage 1)....of course, they said to "sell it down here", in favor of another stock which is already way up, in that I.G., "JNY" at 28+....then asking about De Vry, he said, "if you find a great co. like this, here, you never let it go"....Gee, "DV" had a beautiful "PSYCLE sm" base around $ 3., in 1995, when the analysts were all saying that entire I.G. was going under, remember ? but DV is now around $ 30., and those same guys who wouldn't touch it at $ 3., love it now....way too late, yes ? The pattern never changes....4) since 9/1/98, ATT and IBM stock, have each outperformed, DELL and MSFT....interesting, huh.
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) Wed. 20th, WSJ, big article, glowing about MSFT, saying it will be a $ trillion market cap stock by the end of the year 2000....that would be $ 400., up from recent $ 160+....gee, MSFT's yearly sales were only $ 18 B. in 1998....another late stage 3 signal ? ....2) N.Y.T./L.A. Times, 1/13, article, "Diversifying in Foreign Stocks is Losing Fans": while their sentence structure is incorrect, their point is, that, after vastly outperforming other areas, for years, over the last several years, a recent study showed that "diversification into foreign stocks has provided little value to portfolios (as I predicted in my NL's, when Japan, then Mexico stocks would fall from their stage 4 highs)....making people question the value of diversification in retirement accounts....financial advisors seem to be abandoning this idea as fast as clients." Get it ? If all money managers are abandoning something, years after it has fallen/underperformed, in favor of buying/holding just the already-extended, big-name, domestic stocks, what does that tell you from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v. ? It says to watch for a slow reversal of fortune at some point, and, for them to question the value of divsersficiation "entirely", shows how stupid and dangerous many studies, and people, can be....
3) front page, Sunday 1/24, biz. sec., L.A. Times, huge article, a new, glowing recommendation, of Vodafone, actually showing a parabolic rise....did the writers LOOK at the chart they plastered on the page ? The article calls VOD/ATI. a "huge engine of growth"....I say, but not in its stock, from here, eh ? Careful now....4) Fri. 22nd, 9:50 am, cnbc's Bob Pisani. says, (quote) "Drug stocks are at the bottom...." Then, Mon. 25th, 8:30 am, says, "I have been telling you the Drug stocks are breaking down"....Liar. Misleader....5) cnbc, Mon. 25th, 9:20 am, Warner-Lambert, a stock I gave you herein as a Put near its high, announces a 'whopping 45 % rise in eps"....I guess that explains the drop in WLA, from 80, to 67, lately....not....NO "links" !!!
d) more late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) I love it....the exact moment when B. Biggs and R. Acampora come out as cautious/ negative on the Internet stocks, Thu. a.m., they bottomed very-short-term, and bounced....neat huh....just as happens in stage 5, yes ? ....2) Stan Ehrlich, he of "time cycles" (not price cycles, a big difference, as I do NOT believe anywhere nearly as much, in "time" cycles, but I digress), Wed. 20 th, KWHY-tv, 1:10 pm, is "very bullish, quite positive that the S & P might skyrocket up at an even faster pace, allowing for a S.T. pullback, to 1445 on the S & P, from 1256, soon"....then he said, "cycles are fickle", and his timing might be a bit early or late....Don't get me started....no value.... 3) Thu. 21st, 10:45 am, CNBC gal reporter, said, true to "PSYCLE sm" form, that many Mutual Funds, which had eschewed Internet stocks all the way up, have, since Nov. '98, added big positions in them--- late, as usual--- while, as she said, "M.F.'s were buying these stocks, as fund mgrs. didn't want to be left behind, just as some technicians are calling for a top in them." The Funds she specifically mentioned, were, Janus Mercury, Fidelity Magellan, Transamerica, Strong Enterprise, Olympus, and stocks like, DCLK, AMZN, BVSN, ATHM, XCIT, AOL, recently (hope I got those names right, she talked so quickly, I don't want to mislead anyone here)....but you get the LESSON: for the umpteenth time, NOTHING is EVER liked by "the 95 %", near the lows, and is ALWAYS loved near its top....and such Sector Mutual Funds as Internets, are ONLY added/ created AFTER those stocks have already had huge rises, historically....but you know this....the pattern never changes.
4) Fri., 22nd, 8:30 am, cnbc interviewed Laszlo Birinyi, a long-time Wall St. Week codger, and he continued to say nothing of value/help (paraphrasing) "just keep buying what has been going up, the biggest companies/stocks, with no worries, no stops, no puts, and eschew all the secondary/tertiary stocks, etc." Same old song. But he did mention one salient fact: that the biggest 3 or 4 stocks in the S & P, were equal in market value, to ALL the stocks in the Russell stock 2,000 index.... 5) Fri., 22nd, 9:10 am, CNBC reporter says, "there's no one on Wall Street who thinks the upside volatility will end anytime soon"....uh oh ? ....6) a new "story grabber" on CNBC, Fri., has the gal reporter saying, "Internet stocks are down....but are they out ? some say its a buying opportunity"....stage 5, yes ? ....7) MS,DW upgrades Southeby's to a new buy, here, at $ 39., wow....a bit late, yes ? You should know I had "BID", for real clients $, in its stage 1 base, around $ 10+, in the early 1990's, check its chart out.... 8) continuing kudos for Frank Barbera, kwhy-tv, Fri., he continued to show the long-term 7-staged rise, and fall, of the Energy, and Gaming, stocks, from 1970's to 1980's ....you really need to SEE the charts of such stocks, from 1970, on....DO IT !!!
....9) oh, and Joe Granville gets even more bearish....he still owes me money....
e) Bloomberg News, L.A Times, 1/13: (quote) "Wade Cook seminars accused of defrauding California residents....Fresno atty. genl./prosecutors, proclaiming his classes as 'bogus', seeking $ 18 million in tuition, plus $ 4 million in civil penalties"....Gee, what a shock...told you so, that his 'guarantees of 20 % every month forever, with no risk', would have problems....The article specifically mentioned, 1) how their own account lost $ 800,000 in 1997 (they won't say how they did in 1998, I wonder why), 2) "they also face a similar lawsuit, in Texas, from May 1998....and are under investigation for fraud by the SEC, in Washington, and Illinois", and, 3) they have been guaranteeing money back (but have never paid anyone their money back, dig ?) "if attendees don't make at least 300 % annualized return, on three stocks recommended by the company within three months", and, 4) plaintiffs allege that that was "absurd" (their term), while W.C. tries to say, that, if a $ 20. stock rises 1/4 point in one day, and you sell it, he has made you a 300 % annualized return, satisfying their guarantee....Wild, huh...sematics and deception....Of course "annualizing any very S.T. results forward" has always been illegal, never mind immoral....Gosh, all, for "$ 7,995. cost" according to this article. Those comments came FROM the article, I am not making it up nor embellishing. This is much different, they said, from basically doing a good job, but just not being correct at times. I'd love to have his organization, and net worth, but I provide too much value, for too little money, and I try to be too honest....such is life. Of course, with our wonderful legal system, he'll probably get off somewhat, as other similar people have, somehow ? Which will, of course, hurt the rest of us good guys in the biz, because people will trust everyone less, even those they should trust more....I'm sure a small number of people have made a bundle directly from his stuff, at times, but, for the rest, what a shame....I'm not sure I would want, most of the kind of people who would buy what his stuff said, as subscribers anyway....'nuff said.
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/ suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2" sale....and, "css" means "covered previous short sale", where no puts options existed....
and puts, OSTE, BXM, ANF, and longs, TKN, GSR, FHS, AR, for VQ, very small losses....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We just
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and
similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of
course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would
be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for so short a holding period, yes ?
(new ones) CBRL @ 21, DMN @ 7-, GKI. @ 3, IIR @ 3 1/2, LOD @ 4 11/16, LSN @ 4+, TCK @ 10+
(repeats) (Note: some new, "re-added" repeats) BAANF @ 9 9/16, BEZ @ 19-, BGO @ 3/4, BMG @ 4.06, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CQB @ 9++, CXI. @ 5/16, CYI. @ 1 5/8, DSGIF @ 3 1/8, EAR @ 5/8, FHCC @ 15+, FLC @ 7++, FLM @ 9+, FP @ 2 5/16, HIV @ 1 3/4, IAIC @ 1 3/16, IO. @ 7-, IOX @ 1 7/8, JOB @ 6+, LDW @ 8++, MKA @ 8+, MPN @ 4 1/4, MRII. @ 2 5/16, NEV @ 10 3/4, NGX @ 1/2, PCAR @ 40, PRD @ 18-, PVH @ 6 1/2, RDC @ 9+, RRC @ 3, SAA @ 0.75, SCNI. @ 1 3/16, SHMN @ 1 13/16, SSC @ 11/16, TFN @ 4, TOX @ 3/16, TRI. @ 27-, UTI. @ 7 1/8, VC @ 4-, VGZ @ 3/16, WCCI. @ 11/16, WSTNA @ 2 3/8....most are still EVB's...."buy low", right ? and, more importantly, that, now, AFTER recent rises, most "new buys" are more low-priceds, and/or "laggards" with less "sexiness", and/or for "catch up" moves....also see the "just missed" issues, below....many previously given stocks are already up, from Dec. lows, so too late for those ones, dig ?
New Note: added a new section, of "Mansfield Chart" depressed base ideas, by
I.G., in sec. (6) below....also, note, some new/repeat long buys, are in stage 2,
having pulled back after previous upside breakouts from earlier bases, dig ?
still plenty to choose from, to build a portfolio, long-side....
NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should
already understand/know, that, very often, there is NOT "just one day" when my
ideas become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/
fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5)
anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want
"longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times.... "just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the
stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media patterns.
** Important: took, OXY, FLS, NIL, GRT, HMT, KE, FAX, --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....and/or, they need more work, technically....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) BEL @ 58-, BOBJY @ 31, BUD @ 68-, CC @ 52+, CPQ @ 48, DOX @ 17, EFII. @ 40+, ETEC @ 52+, GNTX @ 25+, IIN @ 40+, LLTC @ 99, MPO @ 32-, PDX @ 61-, PLH @ 25+, QLGC @ 143, RAD @ 50-, SLVN @ 33, SPW @ , UFPI. @ 20, WHC @ 27+....notice, FEWER "new" Puttables do-able here....
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) DCLK @ 100+, DY @ 39+, EAII. @ 61+, FRO @ 37, GTSG @ 65-, HAE @ 23+, INHL @ 35, LAF @ 40+, MMC @ 61+, MYG @ 65+, PLCE @ 27, RSCR @ 25+, SEEK @ 80-, TSAI. @ 49, UFS @ 49, WPI. @ 58-....
and/but, Took, TXCC, MEDI., CACS, CTAS, TXU, CEN, FDS, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy/put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as above.... So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that is your doing.
....and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", WAFTZ, NSANY, SYBS, APAC, TKR, BDS, BOY, NOX, ESC, EOP, IMP, LH, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, BBOX, ADPT, ASDV, COST, DRTE, GNET, RINO, SNRZ, USAI., MEDI., SCH, ARV, AHP, DNY, YUM, PBI., USW, MCD, LIN, JBL, LXK, PL, ZD, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. Also, by viewing such charts, tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
also, PTEK 12+, PCMS 10, HTCH 47, OMPT 16, CIEN 23, RON 28 5/8, LSI. 22 3/4, SGI. 18, VTR, KMT 26 (S), WLV, rose even higher....I gave you each, near their bottoms, of course....View and learn their patterns....
also note, how, PAIR, TRMB, SWW, NRL, STN, IKN, CIR, LIZ, MCL, LSS, OH, CS, all approached/hit their 200 DMA's, resistance, see it ? learning the pattern ?
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers who want "real
quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger
potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will
hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can
really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of many reaons why
we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and
increase one's stress, and actually want to spend more time having to watch and process more things, on purpose, is beyond illogic. With my "PSYCLE sm", we trade less, hold positions longer, do not have to watch every minute, and have much less stress.
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, VTA 7 1/4 up 1 1/8, VC 4 1/4, BAANF 10 1/4 up 3/4, IMO 16 1/4 up 1, PRD 19 1/4 up 1 5/8, PCAR 42 1/8 up 1 5/8, then 40, PAR 7 1/2 dn 2, JBAK 5 7/8, HPC 26, MIFGY, ESOL, GHV, NBTY, CENT, SEW, NWAC, RRC, UPX, CMND, RXSD, MRVC, PCAR, TWLB, SAMC, CBMI., HIV, CTI., IGL, RRC, TEN, UPR, SAA, CSE, PAH, MGN, GCO, Oil Services, WKGP, CDE, FNL, CPU, MCL, ATX/A, COE, PMK -1, ESOL, LXR, TFN, PVH, HPH, LDW, MSX, BIR, BUR, CCC, CYM, MPN, SUL, BTC, SSC, CCH, IHS, IT, and all Metals....some of these are also in "ms" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the
bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are
your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able
to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and
also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also
eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T.
gratification"
* and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above) WSTNA, MRII., PVH, CPU, GLT, CYB, LSN, LFB, SAA, UPR, GGC, DBRSY, PDE, FGI., SEW, HMY, RDC, MPS, BMG, MSN, BEZ, RMDY, IAIC, TFN, FLM, ULB, IMO, GLM, CYM, MPN, TLZ, TWA, FCH, PAH, LFB, WORK, JBAK, ESV, LXR, HPH, PMK, BEZ, WKGP, MHR, MCL, IHS, CXI., SSC, TMA, ADM, TOX, CAU, NR, HP, MT, and cheap Golds, Oil Svc., must follow-through.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
**** New: see, how, UST, IONAY, DLTR, CUBE, PGNS, ALD, ASC, LLY, ABT, JKHY, MERQ, NMGC, SYY, NFS,fell right to their 200 DMA initial support....get it ? while, YHOO, AMZN, MSPG, BRCM, SEEK, BCST, INKT, each fell to their 50 DMA....do you SEE IT ??? and, EBAY, AOL, fell to in- between their 50 and 200 DMA....but be advised: many puttables must still break below their Thu. 21st lows, to follow-through....also note, how, XCIT, pulled back, to the price level above which it broke out , allowing us to cut a very small loss in puts, even with a "takeover", see it ? ditto, VRSN....check them out, to learn/see the patterns....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near
support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in
section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....
remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so
please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their
thing. **** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): EGRP -6, +10, AOL -4, +9, GCTY -4, +10, INSS -2, +3 1/2, DCLK +11, CSGS -2, +2, EAII. +3, TLAB, CDWC +4, ESRX +3, GPSI. -1 1/2, MAST -2, EFII. +1 1/2, IQIQ -1, GNTX -1, TSAI., FLEX, AGPH, PLCE, IQIQ, CLX, DY, BRG, LSON, IDXX -1, FAM, BSYS, FRO, GDT -2, BXM, CSC, VL....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
"Leisure/Entertainment": (besides, ELY, PIN, PRD, WCCI.), found several other real cheapies in the Mansfield charts, which I share below here.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (DDIM, SAA, UBIX, CMND, IAIC, MIFGY, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (CBJ, BMG, CDE, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, BGO, RYO, AR, some real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (IGL, ICI., BIR, RTC, MAH, CYM, BCP, CCC, FNL, HPC, AG)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (IIR, UTI., UMR, GLM, RDC, WEL, VRC, VTS, FGI., PXD, PGO, IO., near their recent lows, Only)
Biotech/Health/Medical (add, VTR, IOX, to, TAROF, COB, MATK, FHCC, CBMI., RXSD, TWLB, NOV, GNSA, TOX, ULB, CCLR, ALLP, TOX, MPN, IHS, MT, VTA, TXB, HIV, SHG, VC, LH)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (TSA, RXSD, GYMB, REV, NBTY, SRR, COO, PVH,
HMY, KFI., MSN, UNO, BLM, GCO, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, MIR, ILX, PAM, LOD, HET, CIR, SER)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, add, EOP, OCN, WIR, to, TRI., LTC, FCH, CPT, HOT, LSN, BD, PRT, SMT, OH, WDN, RTC, ARI., FHS, NHR, BRE, PAH, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CRO, PMC, ENN, FBG, NDE, KPA, JPR, MAA, BED, PMC, RFS, TMA, IMH, FP, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": OXY, FLS, NIL, GRT, HMT, KE, FAX, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
add, CBRL, CNU, DMN, FIT, HXL, LKI., NAUT, OLGC, PAGE, REV, RGR, TCK, UAG, VLO, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, "repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) ACE, ADM, ALN, ALR, AOI., ARG, BAANF, BDR, BEV, BEZ, BGO, BTC, CBJ, CENT, CEXP, CFB, CFS, CLCDF, CNB, CPU, CQB, CXI., CYB, DETC, DOL, EAR, ELCO, FLM, GDC, GHM, GHV, GKI., HCM, HDG, HLX, HMY, HPH, ILX, IMP, INPR, JLG, JOB, KNE, KRY, LDW, LH, LSN, LUB, LYO, MANU, MCH, MKA, MLP, MSX, NETM, NEV, NOX, NPSI., NWAC, OI., OIL, P., PDE, PCAR, PDS, SEW, SOC, SSN, STRX, SUPX, TBI., TDW, TFN, THP, TIE, TLZ, TMO, TRMB, TWA, VDC, WKGP, VSNR, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health"), plus, the Value Line issues: NSANY, DEMP, OFIS, SEW, TSA, MGN)....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....
*** NEW: these are longer, tighter depressed bases, directly from
longer-term, 2 1/2-year, "Mansfield" charts:
health, medical/pharm. (AIMM, ALLP, MRII., NPRO, SCNI., TAROF, VMRX)
comp./tech./s'ware: (CSRE, GTSI., LSKIC, MIDI., OBJS, KTEC, PNCL)
telecom, etc.: (APAC, MRVC)
leisure/entert.: (SHOW, FAIRE, ONST, WCCI., (all real risky/cheap)
capital goods: (DETC, DSGIF, FAVS, ISCO, JPEI., WAFTZ, WSTNA) (most are bigger companies)
Note, some of these have high $ cash/share, little or no debt, and/or
earnings, for those of you who value those things....others are REAL cheapies/very risky....there are others I am checking, with similar patterns, will let you know....mind you, these are NOT "very-short-term" trades....but some
subscribers wanted some longer, depressed basers, so here they are....just
providing something for every need....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY, do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the
ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....note Larger/Growing list !!!
(banks/insur.) AFS, HIG, HLI., NFS, SUT, TROW, WABC,
(comp./techs/s'ware) BSYS, CPQ, INSS, MANH, TSAI.,
(telecom/commun.) CDRD, COMS, DY, NETS,
(medical/health/drug) AGPH, BMET, BGEN, IDXX, OSTE,
(internet) AOL, GCTY, GNET, etc.
(retail/food) ANF, ASC, AZO, BUD, GPS, MCD, PLCE, RAD, SBUX, SVU, UFS, YUM,
**** also watching: added a BUNCH more !!! add, ADPT, ALSI., AMTD, ARX, BBOX, BEL, BLS, BOBJY, CCRD, CEFT, CLFY, COST, DKWD, DRTE, ETEC, EXPD, GAC, IIN, INTC, ISSX, JBL, JEC, KSS, LCOS, LIN, LLTC, MACR, MCK, MCRL, MRIS, MSPG, NCOG, NSCP, PBI., PDX, PROX, PZZA, QLGC, SCH, SCMM, SEE, SFXE, SLVN, SPW, UFPI., UNM, USTC, USW, VECO, WHC, to, ("repeats") AHAA, AMP, AMT, ATHM, CFR, CSGS, CUBE, CXR, DDDF, DL, EAII., EDMC, EFII., EGRP, ESRX, FDS, FNM, GMSTF, GNTX, GPU, GTSG, HAN, IMNX, IQIQ, LAF, LSON, MANH, MKL, MM, MPO, MYG, NAB, NIS, PKN, PL, PLH, SAPE, SEGU, SSP, SYKE, TLAB, USAI., WIND, WLP....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in noe particular order, Extended Supermarket, Restaurants, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Homebuilding, Consumer, Utilities, Banks, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, and all Tele.-Commun., in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....the list Grows....
VIEW THE CHARTS....VIEW THE CHARTS....VIEW THE CHARTS.... Been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets".... Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I promised I would re-run "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm"", and, from 12/7 NL, through the 12/28 NL, I did so.....refer back to those sec. (8)'s any time.....hope they helped....but NO special "lesson" today, except to re-read recent explanations of stages 1-7....take that time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NEW NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4 follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3, ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times: all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact.... period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up "revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ? (plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one
year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A
stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have
"everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position,
and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years"....One must
decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But
at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts
us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we
seek 1-2-3-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor
intraweek moves.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven
that yet again.