1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) hey, was I the first/only to have given puts on QQQ and HHH (NASDAQ/Internet indexes) very recently ? neat.... 2) some footwear/food/apparel/housing stocks are cracking, of little or no damage to portfolios....as I said, many still need technical work.... 3) add, ASO, UPC, to recent list I gave you, of potential Bank takeovers....we have NO way to know exactly which ones, unfortunately, so am going on technicals....but one should be in 'one' Bank/Finl./Insur. stock from here.... 4) Wed., 8:32 am, CNBC's Bob Pisani gushed, "you just can't go wrong with the strong Biotechs...." an impending sentiment S.T. top sign for them ? ....5) I am at a loss to explain cracks in depressed Internet/Brokers, like, BAMM, DIR, JBOH, etc., but others, like, ATHM, JEF, AMTD, remain O.K. in their bases near lows, and you got another big Gain in RTHM from me lately....of course, as I have mentioned previously, often, after 'tax-selling', a 'basing stock' will crack slightly at the right side ofthe formation, suckering-out the last weak holders, then that will end up being THE bottom, yes ? we have seen this occur over the years....but, I must cut losses herein for you, relying on you to be in some of the OTHER ones, diversifying anyway, so these stocks do not affect your psyche....hope this helps....remember, we were the first to give out ERGP, TBFC, EGGS, AMTD, and many others, etc., in their bases last year for you herein, and Puts in these even earlier, so our track record with this I.G. is excellent....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Tues., 10:12 am, CNBC's Bill Griffeth, interviewing the pres. of "APA", said, "hey, the boom times are back, in the Energy industry"....said only after a big rise, as usual, right ? ....2) Tues., 11 am, CNBC's Bob Pisani said, "many traders are disappointed that stocks are falling in the face of much better than expected earnings which abound...." Then, he compounds his misleading line, by actually saying, 11:30 am, "we need leadership, to power the market higher again...." Excuse me ? what did you call the phenomenal rises among Techs, Semis, Internets, Biotechs, and big-name stocks, which we have HAD for so long ? 'no leadership' ? amazing....Plus, this proves how impatient and overdemanding people have become, PSY-chologically....boy are many of THEM going to be disappointed.... 3) WSJ, 1/25, front-page box, "Rough month for the markets", showed, so far, that 5 of the largest daily 'point' drops in the NASDAQ index, just occured this January....but NOT in 'percentage'....re-read my "Media" booklet....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) Tuesday, CNBC had pres. of "ASF" on, 10:10 am, correctly mentioning how, last year he also had this guy on, with ASF around $ 15 in its EVB, when I was the first/only to give the "temp. employ. staffing co. stocks" to you herein from/at their 1998 lows (MPS, JOB, ASF, MAN, SYNT, RHI, ESOL, others, etc., remember ? Then, Wed., CNBC highlighted "RHI", and some B-firms initiated bullish coverage on it....again, only late/higher, as usual....check out their 2-year charts to LEARN the pattern), saying, "gee, last year you warned the street of lower expectations and results, after your stock got killed...." O.K., but, Bill, now he is bullish, at $ 30....shouldn't an opposite stock price move ensue from up here ? But, of course, you wouldn't know/mention that.... 2) CNBC's M.C. Cabrera, Tues., 10:35 am, misleadingly reported that "Raytheon is way up + 6 % on an improved earnings announcement...." when, she could/should have mentioned, it had gotten slammed again just last week, and was just having a 'dead cat bounce' ....3) Wed., CNBC had pres. of Ford on, announcing 'record earnings for the quarter'....but, "F" stock, fell on the news, to 48+....I cannot tell you how many times I have heard analysts and money mgrs. say, "GM, Chrysler, F, DCX, etc., are so cheap on a PE- basis, their stocks have GOT to rise...." only to be incorrect, year after year (except for occasional pops, most predicted here)....again, 'fundamentals' are NOT automatically 'linkable' to stock price movements, as you know.... 4) you know we eschew most fundamentals/news, but, L.A. TImes, 1/25, headline, "Oakley plans a big splash at Expo with proliferation of products", has our "OO" jumping back into their market....they seem to have financing, and, provided their stock hangs in here, is a shot, long, with close stop.... 5) L.A. Times, 1/25, those "two guys with no special credentials, who I keep mentioning", specially hate our "HUM" down here, citing, "horrible backdrop....to make things worse....making its own shareholders sick....a steady decline....the record of a TB patient....been hit hard....merger has not gone well....litigation.... swallowing larger costs....coming up short....on life support indefinitely.... we wouldn't buy this stock...." Whew....given its depressed "PSYCLE sm" base, and negative sentiment, gotta be worth a shot long, with close stop, ay ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, Money Managers:1) Tues., 11;40 am, John Forelli, John Hancock Funds, still loves "BUD" here, because, "it is one of the few companies around that is gaining market share and raising prices...." Gee, I guess that's why its STOCK has Not moved much for over a year now, in a supposed International economic boom, and bull markets, right ? More proof, that 'fundamentals' cannot be automatically be 'linked' to future stock price moves in any consistently applicable manner.... re-read my "Scenarios" booklet.... 2) the pattern never changes....Tues., after "DIS" was ALREADY up from 24 (where 'the experts' openly hated it, right ?) to 37, recently, now, the CNBC reporter after the close, said, "analysts had not figured in the success of the 'who wants be a millionnaire' TV show, into their earnings estimates...." Hmmmm, let me get this straight: vastly overpaid, anal analysts, whose sole job is to be 'in the underwear' of companies, especially such super-famous and well-followed companies, missed that huge, obvious story/fundemantal item ? Hey, if Detroit could miss the obvious huge rise of "Asian autos", for years, nothing about analysts missing things surprises me.... meanwhile, note previous obvious resistance in DIS around 37-38, going back two years....which, of course, was not mentioned, nor recognized, by reporters or analysts.... 3) Thu., on CNBC, 8 am, Cumberland Advisors showed L.T. chart of "stock market Margin debt, as a % of GNP", and, as you might figure, it is at a ridiculously high, parabolic, all-time high....However, as with many 'indicators', realize, this measure was supposed to have predicted an all-time stock market high and crash to follow, back in 1995-96, which, of course, never happened....and "Margin debt" itself has continued to rise phenomenally (partly due to the beginning and rise of daytrading, etc., which 'those experts' failed to foresee, right ?)....anyway, I now say, current levels cannot logically sustain, and the next big correction (like last summer's ?) will cause tons of Margin calls, and blow up a bunch of people....
e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) none....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options
existed....
bal. stock IRSN (1 5/8 to 5+) for Q 200% G....bal. stock LB (1+ to 3+) for 150% G....calls PRD (19 to 27) for Q 150% G....1/2 pos. stock BIS (1.00 to 2+) for VVVQ 111% Gain....1/2 pos. puts MU (78- to 64+) for Q 111% G....bal. puts TDW (35+ to 30) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts DT (73 to 64) for VVQ 90% G....puts SYY (40 to 34) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts ALA (46- to 40-) for VQ 66% G....calls GLB (11++ to 14+) for 85% G....1/2 pos. puts MMM (103 to 91) for VQ 70% G....puts NYF (28+ to 21+) for VVQ 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SEI (6+ to 9+) for 85% G....I told everyone I knew of "IRSN", and you herein, as a 'slam-dunk potential home-run with actual fundamentals as well'....but, of course, no one listened, or acted on it....we sell after initial rises, right ?
and/but, longs, IBC, PBY, IM, FLE, PDG, GLC, LMT, LYO, GPU, DCN, KM, AIN, CTX, RBK, DLX ?, EC ?, CGX ?, SOI. ?, BAMM ?, JBOH ?, TSN (16 to 23 to 16-, L.T.), and, puts, CCN, EDS ? PIOS ?, DT ?, MGM ? KING ? BRW ? (for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
my goodness....shocking action here, especially among longside losses....very small as they are, still, quite upsetting, and temporary....most all Puts losses lately have been "Semis/Compu./Tech." stocks....but been way too many of them lately, especially on the longside, ay ? Usually quite rare (but not until lately)....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times ....again, "cutting, for real small losses" when necessary, which never hurts us much....in fact, they can actually help your 'psyche' over time, by keeping 'larger losses' away, yes ? Remember, more than a few of these "?" sales, are likely to revalidate, both longs and puts, driving us crazy, regardless....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
AEE @ 32++, 1/2 pos. AMTD @ 16+, 1/2 pos. FAX @ 5+, 1/2 pos. FPL @ 42-, 1/2 pos. MIR @ 12+, 1/2 pos. ONE @ 30, 1/2 pos. VFC @ 28++,
"Repeats": ASHW @ 4+, ASI. @ 6+, ATHM @ 37++, AW @ 6++, AZC @ 0.70, BAMM no ?, BEV @ 3 13/16, BGO @ 9/16, BIS @ 1 1/8, BWL/A @ 7, CAN @ 12+, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, CGX @ 14+, CHB @ 8-, DAY @ 0.06, DIR @ 12+ ?, DROOY @ 1 9/16, ECO @ 1 5/16, EGR @ 15+, EX @ 8--, FAF @ 12-, FE @ 22+, FIX @ 7-, FLS @ 15+, FTR @ 3-, GRL @ 7++, GV @ 5/16, HA no, HLT @ 8+, IEE @ 8+, JBM @ 3--, LWN @ 7/16, MCH @ 18-, MSN @ 9/16, NHI. @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OH @ 2 11/16, OO @ 5++, ORI. @ 12 ?, RDL @ 3-, RDRT @ 4+, RPD @ 2 1/8, SMU @ 5+, TMD @ 5+, TWA @ 3-, WEL @ 0.44, WLV @ 13+, Z. @ 6+ ...."buy (only) low", right ?
For those of you with patience, understanding the patterns, where suitable, for L.T., ITM calls options only, diversified only, these seem the best saucer bases here, stocks over $ 10 : in no particular order: FLS, ADM, FAF, EGR, ORI, ATHM, AEE, FE, just F.Y.I....there are plenty of nice bases now, in the lists above, check them out....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, FMO, CIT, NOC, FNV, FBN, ALB, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AVT @ 59+, CDO @ 39-, CMCSK @ 54+, 1/2 pos. CTS @ 80-, ETM @ 68-, 1/2 pos. GILTF @ 129, IATV @ 42, SIVB @ 55-, 1/2 pos. CLFY @ 131+, 1/2 pos. MCOM @ 102, 1/2 pos. RNWK @ 180, 1/2 pos. TIBX @ 181,
"Repeats": ADTC @ 73-, APW @ 36-, AXP @ 157, BHC @ 160, BRW ?, CLB @ 22-, CMC @ 33+, DSCP @ 42, DT no ?, FTE @ 132+, GETY @ 51+, HWP @ 114, IMN @ 33+, KING no ?, MAN @ 38, MGM @ 25+, MND/B @ 24+, MWD @ 70, MUSE @ 179-, NOK @ 184+, NT @ 109-, NTPA @ 60-, PIOS @ 14+, QQQ @ 196, SIVB @ 54+, TV @ 67, WON @ 75-, XLNX @ 48- ....
in no particular order, and with caveats, these seem to look best for Puts at recent highs: AVT, SIVB, HWP, ADCT, CMC, with L.T., ITM puts, diversified, only....
note: last NL's "?" questionmarked potential Puts buys, were because, normally, I would have had a couple of hours of market action, to judge, before I publish the NL, Monday, but market was closed, as you know....but I still wanted to share those with you so you could see their chart patterns....
and/but, took, DGX, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....this cleans up the list in section (7) more, for you....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", HIV, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, TLAB, SCNT, ETA, CSC, SFE, VIP, MHP, JBL, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
hey, you are getting still more nice winners, read list carefully, thoroughly, and VIEW charts to learn patterns: BIS 2 1/2 up 1 1/2 (wow), BTX 14 up 4 3/8, GV 5/8 up 1/4, ZMAX 3 3/8 up 1, HBI. 3 15/16 up 1 1/16, IRSN 5 3/8 up 1 3/8 (S), MHR 3 3/4 up 3/4, TMD 6 7/8 up 1 1/4, PRD 27 3/4 up 9 1/2 (S), PIR 8 9/16 up 15/16, WMI. 17 13/16 up 2, NCI. 12 3/16 up 1, AMTD 17 7/8 up 1 7/8, IEE 8 7/8 up 5/8, WLV 13 3/8 up 7/8, JEF 22 1/2 up 1 1/2, CGX 15 7/16 up 9/16, ONE 31- up 1, SCIO 7, TXM 4, WEL 0.56, VCR 3 1/8, EGR 16, SEI. 9 11/16, FE 23 5/16, AEE 33 1/4, FLS 16 1/8, ASI. 7 3/8, all higher, since last time here....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: MAH 12 up 1 5/8, NHI. 16.06 up 1, FOE 20 3/4 up 1 3/8, GRL 8 up 1/2, CVD 13 3/8 up 7/8, MCH 18 7/8 up 1 1/4, AMTD 16 3/4, BIS 1 1/2, FTR 3 1/4, SCIO 5 3/4, ZMAX 3-, NHR 8 1/8, BBC 7, BMC 4 5/8, HRC, IMG, IOM 4.06, RTHM 36-, 37++, CKR, VBAC, HUM, HOT, DDS, BMC, DIR, PZB, OCN, MHX, ATHM, SEI., VDC, HEB, AVL 7++, RPD, MUEI., ELNK, LPX, RDRT, TOK, SOI. 13 3/4, AVL, OH, LWN, SMU, GTN, FIX....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) CGX 14-, AW, FOE, LPX 12+,13+, ORI. 12, BBC, Z., NHI., JBOH, ECO, SOI., MCH, RPD, TGI., LMM, RBK, CTX, SCIO, VGZ, HLT, PZB, PMC, GTN, DIR, EC 16-, HA, WCC, SRV, FOE, CHB, NHP, TVX....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out: still giving you plenty of decliners: QQQ -12, HHH -19, RNWK -19, GILTF -13, WON +1, -11, TIBX -13, FTE -9, ADCT -9, CTS -9, NT -9, +4, -3, ETM -8, GETY -5 1/4, CMCSK -7, MMM -6 (S), NTPA -5, CLFY -5, IATV +2, -8, AWP -5, MWD -2 1/2, +4, HWP -4 1/2, XLNX -3 1/2, CDO -4 1/4, CTS -4, NYF -2 1/2 (S), AVT -2 1/2, TV -2 1/2, SIVB -2, MAN -2, BHC -3, AIG -3, SYY -1 1/2 (S), XLNX -1, ORCL -1, DOV -1, MUSE -1, ALA +1 1/2, -1 1/2, XLNX -1, TV -1, TDW (S), MU, CMC, lower since last NL....also, see, WMT, HON, even lower....and, SYY, MHP, fell to their 200 DMA (S)....and, DT, fell to its 50 DMA....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
hey, it's not my fault many stocks are volatile day-to-day....instead of viewing that as a negative, incorrectly, view these movements as a positive, creating opportunities to catch Puts when/as they pop, dig ?
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (HUM, BDX, BEV, TXM, HIV, TMG, BBC, etc., others have bounced, up already)
Prec. Metals (CAU, PDG, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, CCH, longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, these REIT's, most also with real big potential Dividends ? (NHR, NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, LTC, PDQ, CEI., GTA, ARI., JDN, KRC, AER, ALF, CBG, PAG, BPP, BTR, etc.) (also some Housing-related stocks, below)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, DDS, KM, S., GAP, HMY, RBK ?, BUR, OO, SRR, USV, some may need more work, technically, but likely to bottom ahead)
Foods (WEN, EGR, FUN, ADM, etc.)
Energy, Utility (AEE, WR, FPL, WEL, CMS, SUN, CGP, ASH, LYO, FE, MHR, EX, etc.)
* plus, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, "Funeral" stocks, down the road....Financials/Insur./Banks, and some depressed Internets, just below here,
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, CONV, ASHW, PAGE, ORI., IEE, to, SMU, RDRT, STS, DROOY, TVX, LWN, AIN, JOB, BWL/A, RDL, PMC, SFI., MSN, ABF, BMC, XCL, OCN, to,
also, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, HII, WAC, LEG, SHX, VFC, DHI., CQ, HBI., MIR, ICO, SOC, FAX, PLSIA, to, IO, IKN, ABM, CMH, UNM, ENN, BPP, HMY, BGC, BSX, AN, ESA, KWD, LUB, JEF, MNY, NAB, TEI, CCG, PCP, BYX, LEA, UH, OMI, NOW, FTL, ATHM, BWA, CHKE, PBG, CMX, FUN, FTR, SVE, PTA, VDC, VX, CAN, AVL, TSK, LEN, NCI, STK, WSO, DLX, FAF, AVS, RT, FLE, TMD, LUV, NCS, SOI, LTV, HLT, AW, GSR, BAMM ?, CTX, KRC, VFC, JBM, IM, NHR, SQM, MUEI, AIN, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
also note, how many of the "insider Buys" list I gave you, are bouncing...did you LOOK at any of their charts ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note, this list growing a bit again, what does that tell you ?
* add, FTE, ETA, ETM, GPS, MOT, SFE, TIF, ADCT, CMCSK, SIVB, PR, CSC, BRW, AVT, CHRW, IATV, DCLK, MCOM, NSOL, NTPA, RSAS, RNWK, VNWK, SSTI, CDO, VITR, CS, WIND, to, KING, MUSE, CCN, MDP, CMC, ALA, APW, AXP, TV, HWP, DOV, BJ, ORCL, MHP, DT, VIP, ARBA, MWD, TEF, VIA, WON, OMC, BHC, QQQ, CC, FDRY, DSCP, GETY, FCST, DCLK, RHAT, RCCC, CHL, ARMHY, NOK, INFA, DIGL, BCE, WMT, MAN, MMM, CLB, HHH, AIG, IMN, LCOS, SCNT, CTS, MHP, NWS, HWP, MGM, TSCC, JBL, AFCI., NT, TFSM, from recent past NL's,
and, as I gave you recently, are these topping soon ?: BRCM, ADAP, CLRS, QLGC, CDO, RRRR, VPHM, INFY, CTSH, CTXS, CMGI, CPWM, PRGS, ATML, VOX, AAPL, MACR, BVSN, CNET, TIBX, TWTR, SILI, NTLI, CNXT, PTEL ??? and, are, WCII, MGIC, ACTU, ADPT, having 'fake out breakouts' here ?
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service,
Wines/Liquors/beverages, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Retail, Foreign,
Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related,
Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing,
and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above
their patterns highs....
NEW: wanna get an idea how bad things have been for me, professionally, from potential partners I need and must depend upon to help me help others ? I had, in writing, a formal agreement to begin a General Partnership, from a very reputable broker, been very close friends with for years, raves about me, whom I have literally made a bundle of money....Yet, after the structure was agreed upon and 90 % set up, ready to go in December, and I had alerted many interested people, I never heard from him again....not one sentence, or call, no remorse, no answer of messages, nothing....Then, I get a lame e-mail semi-apologizing, saying he still thinks I am great, and still wants to do this, but has no idea when....He also keeps saying he will get me a formal accounting "PSYCLE track record of trades he has done directly due to my specific suggestions over the years" to help me marketing-wise, but has not done so....I am now scrambling for other arrangements....thansk for your patience and interest....this WILL happen, and before May, when my licenses come due....Do keep in touch with me here....Lesson: even having great output , talents, and care for others, does not guarantee even getting a chance to help others --- unless one can find special partners and help from others....Which says a lot about this industry, and the way people have become, yes ? Wish us luck....
elsewhere, obviously, MIR did not break out....the "OBV" on HWP and AXP has been falling for weeks....look out ?
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....