1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) cash gold 407, 413, just a vst dead-cat bounce....and Crude Oil support around $ 31 bbl, just FYI....last week's low was 32.30.... 2) TNX yield down anew to 3.918 % and TYX to 4.812 %, aren't U glad U still hold a bunch of bond-type things from me herein ?, with the cash Bond just over 113 ....but then, TNX up to 41.14 %, and TYX up to 50.12 %, watch it.... 3) DXY pb further to 85.80, ....4) TDR does not trust the recent little BO iin the BKX Bank Stk. Index, and, as u know, neither do I....and they call Bonds-short "the trade of the decade" - gee, i thought they just called Long Gold that.... 5) btw, am I, as usual, the first/only seeing that multiple-times pot. top in the DJ Trans. Avg., 3000-3100 or so ?, watch it....
6) I may be incorrect Putting some extended Biotechs, no biggie.... 7) but some extended Semis starting to roll over ?, the 95 % love them now, hmmmm.... 8) that recent high-since-1988 of 272 on the CRB has so far also not been above, as I predicted, I think since so many commods are ALREADY up a lot, and, the 95 % are now talking about them, well, you know that tops usually follow, dig ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt.,
etc.:
1) The Fed now calls the unpredicted-by-them huge rise in Commods, "evidence of a strengthening econ. recovery", instead of Inflation, dig ?, dgms.... 2) TDR says, "last year there were only 10 US stocks-companies with both, over $ 1 B. in mkt. cap., and over 10x Sales valuations....there are now 98 of them, evidence of a bubble waiting to burst"....he says last time, from year 2000, s.t. rates rose, but were cushioned by l.t. rates falling....he says this time, both will rise, uh oh, if so....but kinds what I am prdicting at some point not too far ahead, as with my RE top coming prediction....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) TDR says, "foreigners now own $ 9. T. of US assets, incl. $ 300 B in cash, more than is held by all US citizens combined"....I doubt that 1st number, ay ? ....2) Smart Money's bulls, include tons of fans of WMT @ 33, C, AET, GILD, and now likes ASl Freank's VALUX fund - uh, aa little late as usual, aren't U guys ?, more normal B.S.-late bullishness....they NEVER learn....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) hey here's a good one; navallier's latest Unsolicited email come-on, says "our new year resolution: NO MORE PREDICTIONS !" - of course, U know Y;, he's not been VG, for quite a while, dig ?, I again rest my case on/against most other NL writers.... 2) and/but TDR puffs, "our biggest bull investment for 2004: GOLD !" - see what I mean ?, where the hell are any of 'the 95 %' near lows in anything ?, doing the opp. of what I suggest herein, yes ?, i again rest my case against 95% of other Nl's....to YOUR benefit....you're welcome.... 3) meanwhile, read where, in Jan. 2003 (!) Paul (dgms) Rabbitt, citing big 'insider selling' back then (at much lower price levels, dig ?), said "you should be selling many stocks down here, too" - gee, guy, were U wrong again, or what.... next....
4) TDR now calling for 'short/sell' all Bonds, and for "dleation', a depression with inflation - huh ?, if anything, I C 1/2 the econ. deflation, the other 1/2 continuing inflation.... 5) and, now, Bill PIMCO Gross, saying, "sell all bonds" (?), has evidently sold a chunk of his PERSONAL bonds, FROM his own funds, in his retirement a/c !, wow.... 6) more anti-kudos to B.S., who, as usual, only now likes DUK & DO, two more stks. only I gave out herein big-time at lows, yes ?, next.... 7) and this beauty, proving my opinion again, from R. Russell, who recently said, "these days, he who loses the least, wins", a perfect stupid, useless, metaphor for the 95 %, ay ?, I rest my case.... 8) and now Prechter again predicts real bad things, due to M3 down so much....maybe he'll be correct again at some point ?, he calls for a deflation/depression, citing how 100 % of all economists expect better econ. forward now, and is fading the unanimity of bullishness in 'year-ahead prediction' tomes....i agree, but not to his bearish extent....it is truly amazing that prechter's new 'end of the world' bookk is again a best-seller....proving once again that the 95 % NEVER learn - and is against ME....
9) more bearish pot. news, as SmartMoney (dgms) is super-bullish now, predicting "almost assured for higher stocks prices into even 2005 !", well, you know what to do, dear reader, ay ? ....10) and, recent NL cited how, proving why my "PSYCLE sm" normally detests most all growth MF's, that, for 2003, only 1 of the top 10 Funds, and 2 of the top 20 ifor 2003 alone, had anywhere near good returns the previous 10 and/or 20 years -get it ?, most all of them stunk- STINK, period, unless YOU exactly time a spcicifc one for a short time, then sell near top -dig ?, again I rest my case...
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving
why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) the always-doomer TDR now says Vanguard is getting so many bullish buy-MF calls, it has to hire a ton of phone helpers, to TDR, a top sign, sentiment-wise, dig ?, hmmm...
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
7 more Longs, neat....
and,
1 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns
note, from now on, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
for Q % Gain....1/2 pos. stk. MTON (2- to 3+) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. TOY recons (10++ to 14++) for l.t. % G....1/2 pos. EP and recons (6++ to 9++) for l.t. % G....1/2 pos. stk. LENF (0.25 to 0.50+) for Q % G....1/2 pos. TYX yield from 5.4%+ to 4.9 %+, and 1/2 pos. TNX tield from 4.6 %- to 3.9 %+, for l.t. nice Gains ....at least 1/2 pos. s.o.m. IO (3+= to 6) for VVQ % G....1/2 pos. calls JNJ (50- to 53+) for VVQ % G....bal. NCA, bal. AWE, LVLT, SGP, NTIQ, THC, TIBX, LEO, TOY recons, HPI. ?, all for BIG % Gains....1/2 pos. puts CYMI (50 to 43) for VVQ % G....bal. puts CHIR ?, bal. puts PFGC ( to ) for % G....bal. calls TKR (15 to 24) for BIG % G....bal. CLTK for l.t. small G....
and/but, longs, CYPM, bal. WTNT, and, , puts, SDS, AXP, ANPI, SIVB bo ?, CYMI. bo ?, PCL ?, KRB bo ?, ENR, bal. BER, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....but longside a bit upsetting, rare, as U know....and always presages a better period, yes ? are you learning ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
NWRE @ 10+ ?, MEDI. @ 21-, TRMS @ 17+,
MAT @ 18+ fo ?, 1/4 pos. SUQU @ 0.33, CC recons 11 % at 93, with CC under $ 9, UGRD @ 0.065, 1/4 pos. US dollar DXY @ 85.50, LENF @ 0.27, IFPG @ 0.145, AMD 10.75 % due 11/04 recons @ 93, 1/3 pos. CTLM @ 5-, GLT @ 12.11, CRXA @ 5 1/2,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): 1/3 pos. PSS @ 12 1/8 eh, 1/2 pos. HMN @ 13, 1/2 pos. LFP @ 0.36, AIV @ 33+ fobd, MCEM @ 18-, and a super-spec ISYN @ 0.011, 1/4 pos. IOM @ 5+, HPI. @ 24+ eh, 1/3 pos. ZF @ 4++, SRDX @ 20, ACTI. @ 7 3/8 ? fobd ?...."buy (only) low", right ?,
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, , and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
1/2 pos. DJTA @ 3100, SDS @ 30 wc, 1/3 pos. AMZN @ 57++, 1/3 pos. MER @ 60+, 1/2 ASCA @ 26+, BRKS @ 27+, 1/2 BOBE @ 32+, 1/3 AT @ 50+ ?, 1/3 DG @ 22+, 1/3 IFX ?, 1/2 KTO @ 17+, UOPX @ 79,
1/2 SIAL @ , UTHR @ , 1/2 SNV @ , 1/2 YUM @ , FITB @ 60-, AAUK ny, no, PKTR no, CMTL soon, GTRC os ?, O. @ 40+, cash Crude around 35, cash Gold around 430, FNM ? no, UTEK @ 35+ fo, CECO os, 1/4 pos. ACXM @ 19+ ?,
1/2 CSC @ 45, 1/2 JBL @ 31++, AMR no, AET no, IBOC no, MU no, NSCN no, SLVN ?, FOSL ny ?, RMK @ 27-, ODFL @ 36-,
XXIA ?, IFX ?, CRAI. @ 35+, NSANY @ 24-, DRL @ 34+, 1/2 ORBK ?, ACAS no, APPB @ 39+, GENZ no, BUD @ 52++, STJ no, SNPS, MBI. ?, CSC, AMG ?, FCFS oso, AFCO oso, KRON @ 41- fo, ENR @ 38+, 1/3 pos. WRI. no, RARE @ 26-, 1/2 pos. BEN @ 48-, 1/3 pos. 1/3 pos. MRBK @ 45 soon ?, 1/2 pos. AFL @ 36, O. @ 40+, SCHS @ 30+, SWBT @ 39++, 1/3 pos. OHP @ 45++, EVG eh, JKHY @ 19+, WWY @ 57- eh,
"Repeats":
>
EQR @ 30 fo, GD ctbo ?, TGT @ 40, CZN @ 12++,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, HOTT bo ?, BBH bo ?, FNM, ABK, PKTR, AMR, AAUK, MU, SIVB, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein) ....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", ISIS, POSS, NWRE fobd ?, PMACA, BCE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, DRL, SRCL, PLNR, HTCH, PBI, JEC, EC, SNV, KRON fo, PDII, SLVN, CELG, RDN, FISV, CECO, MTSN, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7)....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
SUQU 0.55 up 0.33 wow, TKR 24+ up 5 (S), UGRD 0.13 up 0.04, JNJ 53.70 bo, IO. 4.75, 6.10, MTON 3.48, TOY 14.84 recons, sos, HMN 16.10 sos, LENF 0.51, VWEHX 6.48, LFP 0.54 up 0.06, MEDI. 22.58 up 1.81, NWRE 11.39 up 0.61, MCEM 20 bid +1, PYX 8.56 soso, CC 11.70 up 0.80 recons, higher since last NL here....and, HDWR 24, GT 12, LAVA 27, LTR 43-, NOI. 26, even higher still....and noticing STHLY, recall ?, up from 7 to 17+ recently, ay ?
and, these are either pulling
back, or bouncing, after new expected pb's:
obviously, getting plenty of pb's:
AIV 34.99 up 1.69 nice, the DXY 86.82 pb, AMD 15.18 dn, ACTI. 7.42 (B) dn, 7.77, SRDX 20.00 dn (B), 21.90, 20.89, LENF 0.36 pb, 0.43, CTLM 7.03 pb, 7.53 bo ?....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
CLTK (S), HPS 25.08 fob ?, AIV cb 33+, CPKI. 19.12 up, PSS, SDRX (B), BORL, HMN, TTIL !, MTON 3.12 msa, JNJ msf, PTGC 0.31 pb, AMD 16.08 up, IOM 5.65, 6.21, DSS 3.55 dn, IFPG 0.14 non (B), 0.18, HPI....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
UTEK -6, AMZN -5 1/2, CYMI. -3, UOPX -3, BRKS -2, JBL +1, -3 fo, MER -1 3/4, ODFL -4 3/4 sow, ASCA, CHS, Crude Oil 33.77 dn 1.23, down lower since last time here....and, CHIR, HTCH, KRON, PFCB, SRCL, EQR, PRX, RDN, RYL, SNV, down to/below 200 DMA....and, PFGC 30, BARZ 31, even lower still....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
note, as mentioned in sec. (2) above, how many puttables popped
back up to potential resistance levels - and some are on verge of breaking
out/up, and some had minor breakouts, poss. fobo's ?, so you're call from here in
those, as usual (pun intended):
JBL +1, EQR, KRB bo ?, TEVA +2, -1, fo ?, JBL +1, ODFL, CYMI. +2 1/2, MHK, ACXM, APPB -1, +2, SYMC, BUD, MIK, CNCT, GPT, MCY -3/4, BBBY, WWY, SWBT +1, CHIR -1 1/2, TGT, CZN dn, PRX, gold, Crude....and, HOTT -1 1/2, UTEK, fo....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depr.
techs, telecoms, most/all computer-stuff, biotechs, drugs, cap. goods,
machy/equip., some blue chips, alt.-energy-relateds, internets, etc. No need to
give specific IG's here....except for sec. (2) part (1) above comments, like,
cap. goods/equip./trans. stocks as recent pot. db's, etc.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
still adding some, dig ?:
like:
TRMS, LAB, UCI. obpbo, MCDT, ROXI. fobd ?, db ?, SSFT opbo, LENS opbo, LAB dbs ?, PSY div. ?, to, APAC opb, WSTF opb, MAT fobd, Q. obpbo, NWRE dbs ?, MTON spec EVB, VDM, SEHO another spec, to, CTLM, MCDT ?, GLT, LENF, BRCD, HMN, DSS obpbo, RPHL opbo (spec), AIV, JRSE, ICOW opbo, GONT obpbo, ACTI. fobd, IOM l.t. db, MCEM, DYII. ?, MCCC tln, CPKI. obpb, to, IFPG obpbo, BMRN obpbo, RINO eh, CSTR ?, COKE obpbo, CVG opbo ?, CRXA obpbo, LSS ds ? opb, to, PSS opbo, LEXG opbo, IDNX obpbas, UGRD opb, ZF obpbo, AGIL opb, GLBL ny, LFP opbo, CRGN obpbo, AKLM obpbo,
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, CC 11 % recons with CC below 9, AMD recons, EP 18.25 % recons with EP @ 6.66, TOY recons w/TOY @ 10+, to, AIV ?, ZF @ 4+, HPI. eh ?, NCA obpbo, LEO tln....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !
added, AT, DHI. ds ?, CY ?, semis ?, homebldg. ?, DRL, DG, FLR ?, LIN ?, MHS, MCD ?, MEL ?, EC oso, UOPX, to, defensive index, conStruc./mining/machy., truckers ?, YUM, RL, HLT, DT ?, ASCA, UOPX eh, DELL, XRAY oso, FMER, DCOM ?, ISIL ?, ODFL, PDII, SIAL, APPX ?, TMWD ?, KNGT eh, EC ?, RDN ?, to, CMTL, CRAI, FISV, GTRC, ODFL, UTHR, UTEK, FOSL, DD, HNZ, JEC ?, JBL, FSH, CECO oso, MRVL os ?, to, BBH fo ?, APPB, CRAI, BKMU, CANI. ny, FITB, IBCP ?, ISLE, MSTR ?, ORBK ?, TTMI, SPLS, VECO ?, COF, CMI, MBI, JCP, RSH, BRE, NITE, CYBX, HOTT no ? fobo ?, CSC, WRI, SYMC ?, to, HIT, IFX, O, SUP ?, AFL, BWA, BUD, EMC, MER fobo ?, OHP, NAV, AD, XXIA, AFCO, INTU eh, nah, NSANY, RARE, SYMC, SWBT, KBH, to, SBL, BBBY oso, CHS, AMT, AMZN, SLVN fo, VTSS ?, COF, SDS, MHK, VIP eh, CFBX fo ?, ASKJ ?, BHE, PGR, FBR ds ? ny, EQR, SRCE, GTRC, PIXR, SCHS, WWCA, WFSI, to, RMK, WWY, TGT, ACXM, CMCSK, HCR ?, PCL, SII. ?, ABER, TEVA bo ?, CVC, DIGE nah, SRNA oso ?, ECA, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES