Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
issue # 68, dated: 11:00 am, P.S.T., Thursday, Jan. 28, 1999

*** If you are a "NEWER" Subscriber, please take the time to read ALL of the "wordy" parts of the NL, once or twice, anyway....If you are an "OLDER" Subscriber, of course, feel free to SKIP, to those NL sections you wish to glean your info. from. (Save all my CUMULATIVE letters, for future reference/educational learning/help). If you are pressed for time, at least read Section (2) to develop a "feel" for our Sentiment patterns--- and Section (3) always, while taking the time to View individual stock CHARTS.... So much valuable info. in one place. Also, obviously, when "more, or fewer" longs, or puts, are given herein, that also tells us more about "the internals, and likely future direction of the market", yes ? And, please, neither expect ME to stay "super hot" nor "super cold" forever. NO emotion--- and do NOT "just extrapolate the most recent results forward, good or bad, forever" !!!

I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
New Thoughts: Although you know we NEVER try to "predict Indexes/Averages/the Market", here are my most Current "Market" Comments:

I worked a LONG time on today's NL for you....Except for a handful of extended stocks, and Energies, more of the same....Note, we took another stab at some Internets, which rose back up towards highs, for Puts....I hope you already know/knew to do that, dig ? The whole idea, is for you to already know that, when/if the Internets I share(d) below in prior sections (3) or (7) made double-tops, YOU are/were supposed to give it a shot, with close stops, etc. But seeing tremendous fakeouts, so trying not to "microscope" our stocks, stepping back, gaining perspective, "seeing" the extended ones, vs. the depressed ones more clearly, keeping stops, leaning towards the defensive side here still.

Once again, the Financial Media breaks out the supposed "as January goes, so goes the market" junk....the DJIA closed 1998 at 9,181....after an initial, BS pop/Internet top, look where we are now....They "say" this "supposed indicator" has had an 80 % success/predictive rate, going back decades, but, it also did not work in 1998....plus, "the major indexes" are NOT representative of "the market" .... the weakness in Energies is, as usual, no biggie, since you are properly diversified, and NOT attached to any one "scenario", or I.G., right ?

a special, unusual, "PSYCLE sm" couple of predictions (not a scenario): since I was among the very, very few to have called the low in I.R.'s last summer, in this NL, I continue to Not be able to find one single pro out there, suggesting higher I.R.'s, from here....I now see the potential for I.R.'s to rise 1/2 % to 1 % (on the long bond, to the 6 % area) ahead....not overnite, of course....after which, they would hit the still-in-force long-term downtrend line on the T-bonds' 20-year I.R. chart....This, coupled with a possible bottom and subsequent rise in metals and energy prices (after this decline ends, up ahead), might be a catalyst, technically....

I also wonder, much Longer-term only, if, as I am beginning to surmise, the whole "financial assets/land-based assets" "PSYCLE sm" I predicted since the early 1980's, might be in the process of beginning to reverse, ahead....See, when, in my daily TV shows, and in many speeches, for real, I was among the very, very few guys suggesting, back in 1983, "Dow 10,000" (which was just a round number, for effect), and a shift, from harder, ground assets, to liquid financial assets (I was much more 'economics-oriented' back then), I was, as usual, looked at with disdain....I expect my new L.T. prediction here to be met with the same ignorance and lack of respect, by "non-Psycle" people....But there, I have said it....I will absolutely NOT turn this NL into an "economic-junk" letter, nor will I expound on my "reasons why" (re-read my "Scenarios" booklet)....I just want to go on record, in writing, here and now, so that, in future years, I can go back and say that I said what I said, as, again, being among the very few/only guys to have said such a thing, (hopefully) correctly....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and (5). Very clear sections. You have No excuses for not taking advantage.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) cash Gold and Silver have still not yet formed depressed S.T. saucers....and their "stocks" not acting as well.... 2) I notice the cash Soybean contract, broke further, below its Sept. 1998 lows....gee, seems I recall alerting you in my NL's back then, not to listen to all those come-on commodity crooks, NL's, and Radio guys, pitching "beans to the teens", all during the "supposed" (but, as I taught you back then, NOT of "D.A.F.P.P.V.") El Nino (and, then, the equally incorrectly "linked" La Nina)....next.... 3) seeing more weakness among our Energy stocks, not good S.T., but, again, its just another I.G., no attachments, because we are diversified, right ? hence some Q, S losses cut....but most retain their patterns 4) most Gaming stocks are still Not ready yet, technically.... 4) and/but, as predicted, seeing renewed drops among our Utilities, and Banks, and Insur. stocks, as the cash T-bond and even the T-bill contracts, each rose to, and then were turned back by/at, their 200 DMA's....see it ? almost perfect "PSYCLE sm' stage 5 or 6 action....5) also, note, our depressed Farm stocks declined towards original buy levels again....6) longer-term only, not yet: they have smashed the "funeral" stocks lately....obviously, this "business, fundamentally" is not going away, right ? anyway, our LWN, is bbeginning to shape up as a "BDG/EVB", on "cathartic volume", see it ? also, at some point, SRV....just for your learning benefit.

b) 1) 1/25, N.Y. Times: evidently, EBAY, is being investigated by the state of N.Y. for possible consumer fraud issues....the first "bad" potential story since the "PSYCLE sm" called its top, still in stage 4 ? yet it rose to approach its high again....and several B-firms raised their targets--- from here ? wow.... 3) cnbc, Tue. 26th, 9 am, guy showed a 2-hour chart of the Dow, saying, "what a volatile day we have had so far" --- yet, the intraday spread was only 60 points, on a 9,200 average, dig ? = misleading, sensationalizing, WRONG. See, its like the blind men and the elephant....they are also too close to the action, to report non-emotionally, or objectively, EVEN THOUGH they are supposed to be (just) reporters, they still editorialize all the time....to the detriment of others, many times, as you know.

c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/ companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) cnbc, 1/25, 10:40, had the CEO of "CEPH" on, now, at $ 10+, up from the 6+, when I gave it to you herein, last November....again, they NEVER positively interview ANYONE at ANY company EVER, when its stock is near its "PSYCLE sm" low....BTW, the next day, CEPH fell 12 %.... 2) cnbc, 1/25, 10:50, highlighted "VTA" (Vesta) another stock I gave you herein near its lows, around $ 5....it hit 8 3/8 that day....the Media "discovers" such stocks, too late, yes ? ....3) note, 1/25, Bellsouth, a Put of ours given you herein, announced better-then-expected eps, yet its stock fell, dig ? ditto, MSPG, on Thu. 28th....NO "links"....4) Thu. 28th, 9:45, cnbc's Larry O'Brien, actually tried to promote Hasbro, and Omnicom, as "stocks which might rise because of the Super Bowl" (I'm not kidding)....yeah, right.... unbelievable.

4) MSFT, AMTD, INTC, XRX, GDT, IBM, each to split 2-for-1, and on cnbc, Tue. 26th, 9 am, reporter actually said, "up till now, IBM was struggling, but now it is turning around", and, "it is now splitting, implying it will keep on soaring" ....Get it ? IBM is up 9-fold since 1990 low, is certainly NOT "struggling", and, it has BEEN "turning around", for years already....get a brain, guy....oh, I forgot, you are a financial TV station reporter....so that's probably too much to ask of you.... 5) cnbc's Bob Pisani., Thu. 28th, 9 am, actually tried to create an excited newly-bullish case in Time-Warner, "with a super move today, up 4 1/2, to just over $ 66." huh ? since when is a 6 % rise, a "super move" ? plus, TWX had already risen from 18 to 66, before today....someone must have put a bug in his ear....there is no such case that can be made that way on that stock here.... 6) the new CNBC "tabloid-type grabber come-on", Wed. 27th, is "stock split fever.... could YOUR shares double, or more ?" ....honest....that's what the announcer said ....another stage 4 sign ? ....7) cnbc's gal reporter, Thu. 28th, 9:30 am, actually said, "these splits among the biggest high-tech issues, indicates more good times lie ahead"....I'm not kidding....

d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) Tue. 26th, both Oppen. and Goldman, S. raise their ratings on our RMDY, at $ 17. --- gee, I gave it to you herein, around $ 10, a while ago....we sell into strength, on its semi-parabolic rise, yes ? They should definitely be getting my NL, yes ? where is my national exposure ? ....2) Thu. 28th, Alan Greenspan, the economist who was bearishly wrong at Dow 6,000 made shockingly rare bullish comments on the Internet stocks, up here, today....another top sign for them ? ....3) Frank barbera
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/ suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2" sale....and, "css" means "covered previous short sale", where no puts options existed....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when originally recommended herein, to the price where very rently Hypothetically "sold"):
calls RMDY (10+ to 23-) for Q 350% Gain....1/2 pos. INSS (69+ to 54) for VQ 125% Gain....puts WLP (87 to 71+) for VQ 150% G....bal. puts FDX (90- to 76+) for Q 111% G....puts CUBE (30 to 22) for VQ 111% G....puts CMA (69 to 60+) for 100% G....puts IDXX (28- to 22) for VQ 100% G....bal. calls MPS (11+ to 15+) for 90% G....puts HIG (57 to 48+) for Q 100% G....puts NIS (34 to 29+) for 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. VTA (5+ to 8) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. MRVC (7- to 10+) for 90% G....stocks NPRO (1 1/2 to 2 3/4) for a 3-day 55% G.... puts ABT (50- to 43+) for VQ 66% G....puts AFS (44+ to 38+) for Q 75% G....stock PLC (4- to 7) for 75% G....puts SUT (49- to 43+) for Q 55% G....puts NFS (51+ to 46+) for Q 66% G....bal, puts CSC (69 to 63) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. KTEC (6+ to 8++) for VQ 66% G....calls GGC (14+ to 19+ to 14+ to 17) for 55% G.... stock VDC (3 3/4 up 5++) for 50% G....1/2 pos. HIV (1 3/4 to 2 5/8) for VVQ 44% G ....stk.on.mgn. ESV (9 to 12 to 11-) for 33% G....css NETS (19 to 15+) for VVQ 35% G....puts AOL (155 to 145) and stk.on.mgn. BUR (8+ to 11 to 9), and puts AGPH (59 to 55), GDT (114+ to 109-), for VQ, small % Gains.

and puts, BOBJY (31 to 26 to 31), GCTY, EGRP, PLCE, EDMC, DOX, CLX, UFS, BAX, IIN, CC, DY, and longs, RDC (9+ to 12- to 9), BUR (8 to 11 to 8+), JOB (6 to 8 to 6), LDW (8+ to 10+ to 8+), SHMN, MWY, MCH, PVH, NEV, GLT, RDC, RRC, BMG, UPR, CYI., FGI., HP, NR, for VQ, very small losses...

NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for so short a holding period, yes ? also, obviously, these have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....

**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:
(new ones) AIMM @ 2, AOI. @ 3 3/16, CBRL @ 21, CSRE @ 3 9/16, DMN @ 7-, GKI. @ 3, IIR @ 3 1/2, IMG @ 5 7/8, ISCO @ 1 1/8, LSN @ 4+, MIR @ 13 13/16, NPRO @ 1 1/2, PAM @ 3 9/16, SSN @ 3 7/8, TCK @ 10+, WATFZ @ 9....note, some tertiary "Mansfields" bought....they have been at buyable levels for weeks....I'll bet some of you didn't even view their charts....

(Note: some new, "re-added" repeats !!!) AZC @ 1/2, BAANF @ 9++, BEZ @ 19-, BGO @ 3/4, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CPU @ 11 9/16, CQB @ 9++, CXI. @ 5/16, CYB @ 4 3/16, CYM @ 9 1/2, DSGIF @ 3 1/8, ELY @ 10.06, FHCC @ 15+, FLC @ 7+, FLM @ 9+, FP @ 2 5/16, HIV @ 1 13/16, IAIC @ 1 3/16, IGL @ 18+, IO. @ 7-, IOX @ 1 7/8, JOB @ 6+, MCH @ 18+, MKA @ 8+, MPN @ 4 1/4, MRII. @ 2 3/16, NGX @ 1/2, NOI. @ 10, PAR @ 7+, PCAR @ 40, SAA @ 0.75, SCNI. @ 1 3/16, SSC @ 11/16, TEN @ 30++, TFN @ 4.06, TOX @ 3/16, TRI. @ 27-, TWA @ 4 3/4, UTI. @ 7 1/8, UPX @ 1 13/16, UTI. @ 7+, VC @ 3 3/8, VGZ @ 3/16, WCCI. @ 11/16, WSTNA @ 2 3/8....most are still EVB's...."buy low", right ?

NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/ fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....I give it all....

*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns ....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times...."just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media, patterns.

** Important: took, BED, CPT, CFB, --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) ADPT @ 25-, ALSI. @68+, AZO @ 33+, CEFT @ 40+, DLTR @ 46++, GNTX @ 25+, LIN @ 39+, LSON @ 66-, MCD @ 80, MOT @ 72+, NLCS @ 37+, PBI. @ 64+, PERC @ 41+, UNM @ 60++, ZD @ 19-....

(and, note, some "new" repeats again) AHAA @ 39+, ATHM @ 122, CPQ @ 50+, EBAY @ 312+, GDT @ 58-, GTSG @ 65-, LAF @ 40+, MPO @ 32-, MSPG @ 112, MYG @ 65, PKN @ 100, RSCR @ 25+, SPW @ 69, TLAB @ 87+, TSAI. @ 50+....

and/but, Took, NSCP, SYKE, DRTE, DDDF, CLFY, COST, SEE, AHP, EMC, ARX, AOL, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy/put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that is your doing.


 All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit ....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, up already, and/but acting O.K., so stay in these for now):

**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).

still giving you nice risers (note, these have always been listed, in order, from the biggest % moves, to the smallest important most recent % price moves): read this, and the last list here, thoroughly....and check their charts to see the patterns: NPRO 2 7/8 up 1 1/2 (S), RMDY 23+ up 6 3/4 (S), HIV 2 3/4 up 1 (S), ISCO 1 5/8 up 5/8, IOX 2 1/4 up 1/2, MRVC 10 3/4 up 3 1/4 (S), AIMM 2 3/8 up 1/2, TFN 5 3/8 up 1 3/8, PLC 7 1/8 up 1 1/4 (S), GCO 7 3/4 up 1 1/4, VTA 8 3/8 up 1 1/8 (S), BAANF 11 1/8 up 1 3/4, BLM 2 3/4 up 3/8, SSN 4 1/2 up 3/4, IGL 20 up 1 1/2, CBRL 22 5/8 up 1 7/8, MT 16 1/2 up 7/8, ICI. 36 1/2 up 2 5/8, FCH 23 5/8, UBIX 6 5/8, SCNI. 1 3/8, AAC 4 7/8, BCP 7 3/8, CSRE 4, JBAK 6.06, VDC 6 (S), THP 11 1/4, NDE 12 1/4, ULB 2 3/4, LOD 5, up/further, since last time here.... ("NPRO" was a real, available, NL trade, but was so quick to hit resistance....on a bigger pb, may set up again)

For the last time: also, AXC 3 1/2, PTEK 12+, PCMS 10 (S), HTCH 47, OMPT 16, CIEN 23, RON 28 5/8, LSI. 22 3/4, SGI. 18, VTR, KMT 26, WLV, rose even higher.... all are/were Sales up there....I gave you each, near their bottoms, of course.... View and learn their patterns....also note, how, VDC, PAIR, TRMB, SWW, NRL, STN, IKN, CIR, LIZ, MCL, LSS, OH, CS, all approached/hit their 200 DMA's, resistance, see it ? are you learning the pattern ? do it !!!

note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of many reaons why we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and increase one's stress, and actually want to spend more time having to watch and process more things, on purpose, is beyond illogic. With my "PSYCLE sm", we trade less, hold positions longer, do not have to watch every minute, and have much less stress.

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, NETM 2 1/2 up 5/8, ESOL 2 1/2 up 1/2, NWAC 26+ up 1 1/2, VC, (Oil Service: HAL -4, NE, VRC, UTI., PDE, NBR, FCH, FLC, ELY, etc.), INPR 5 1/4 dn 1, EAR, BAANF, MIFGY, PCAR, HPC, GHV, NBTY, CENT, SEW, UPX, CMND, RXSD, TWLB, SAMC, CBMI., CTI., IGL, TEN, SAA, CSE, PAH, MGN, MAH, WKGP, CDE, FNL, CPU, MCL, ATX/A, COE, PMK, LXR, HPH, MSX, BIR, CCC, MPN, SUL, BTC, SSC, CCH, IHS, ICI., IT, AG, and all Metals....some of these are also in "ms" list below....

again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops.... Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification"


* and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:

(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above) (note new stocks ! ) VC 3 1/4, dn 1 3/4, PRD, IMO, IGL, TLZ, FLC, AZC, GHV, UTI., VRC, NOI., EAR, WSTNA, MRII., CPU, CYB, LSN, LFB, SAA, DBRSY, PDE, SEW, HMY, GKI., MSN, BEZ, IAIC, FLM, ULB, GLM, MPN, TWA, PAH, LFB, WORK, LXR, HPH, PMK, BEZ, WKGP, MHR, MCL, IHS, CXI., SSC, TMA, ADM, TOX, CAU, BIR, IO., and cheap Golds, Oil Svc., must follow-through.

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* too late to buy puts on these stocks now, but acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further, read list carefully: QLGC -19, EBAY -19, INSS -8, MSPG -7, EAII. -5, ADPT -4, LSON -4, MCD -4, ALSI. -3 1/2, ESRX -3, WLP -3 (S), CPQ -3, IDXX -2 3/4 (S), SBUX -2 3/4, MYG -3, SPW -2 1/2, UNM -2 1/2, SUT -2 1/2 (S), DCLK -2, +2, CEFT -3, GNTX -2 3/4, SLVN -2 3/4, BEL -2, FRO -2 1/4, SHX -2 1/4 (sow), NSCP, GPS -2, AMT -2, GDT -2, PBI. -2, CG -2 (sow), AHAA -1 1/2, MPO -1 3/4, AZO -1 1/2, WPI. -1 1/2, EFII. -1 1/2, PERC -1 1/2, GPU -1 1/2, CFR -1 1/2, CMA -1 1/4, DLTR -1, MAST -1, SLVN -1, DLTR -1, WHC -1, ABT -1 (S), AHAA -1, SSP -1, ZD -1, TROW, NETS (css), RSCR, PDX, BLS, SVU, MM....and, INKT 116, dn 15 (S), NMGC 15 dn 2 (S), down still further....also, see, HMK, got whacked Thu., given you herein, but just missed....also see 'bouncers' below....

**** and, important, for the last time: see, how, SUT, WLP, UST, IONAY, DLTR, CUBE, PGNS, ALD, ASC, LLY, ABT, JKHY, MERQ, NMGC, SYY, NFS, SUT, fell right to their 200 DMA initial support....get it ? while, YHOO, AMZN, MSPG, BRCM, SEEK, BCST, INKT, FDX, each fell to their 50 DMA....do you SEE IT ??? and, EBAY, AOL, fell to in- between their 50 and 200 DMA....but be advised: many puttables must still break below their Thu. 21st lows, to follow-through....also note, how, XCIT, pulled back, to the price level above which it broke out, allowing us to cut a very small loss in puts, even with a "takeover", see it ? ditto, VRSN....check them out, to learn/see the patterns.

Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit.... remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing. **** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) MKL +12, PKN +11, -3, AFS -2, +2 (S), BEL +3, SSP, CEFT +3, MCD +3, HAE -1, DCLK, CSGS, TLAB +2, FRO +1, SHX +1 1/4, ESRX, GPSI., MAST, PERC, TSAI. +4, -2, IQIQ -1 1/2, +2, BRG, FAM -1 1/4, MMC, PBI., SYY, AMP, MYG, SVU, BSYS, COMS, AHAA, BXM, GDT, CPQ, PDX, SPW, WPI. +2 3/4, VL, DL....

Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades, or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also, there may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times, right ? Of course, near the highs in March, and July, this list was much smaller, yes ? Also, remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their lows, with stops for protection.

"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.

"Leisure/Entertainment": (besides, ELY, PIN, PRD, WCCI.), found several other real cheapies in the Mansfield charts, which I share below here.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (DDIM, SAA, UBIX, CMND, IAIC, MIFGY, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (NGX, CBJ, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, BGO, RYO, some real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (IGL, ICI., BIR, RTC, MAH, CYM, CSE, MCH, BCP, CCC, FNL, HPC, TEN, AG)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (IIR, UTI., UMR, GLM, WEL, VRC, VTS, PXD, PGO, NOI., IO., near their recent lows, Only)
Biotech/Health/Medical (add, VTR, IOX, to, TAROF, COB, MATK, FHCC, CBMI., RXSD, TWLB, NOV, GNSA, TOX, ULB, CCLR, ALLP, TOX, MPN, IHS, MT, TXB, HIV, SHG, VC, LH)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (REV, NBTY, SRR, COO, PVH, HMY, KFI., MSN, UNO, BLM, GCO, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, MIR, ILX, PAM, LOD, HET, CIR, SER)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, add, EOP, OCN, WIR, to, TRI., LTC, FCH, HOT, LSN, BD, PRT, SMT, WDN, RTC, ARI., FHS, NHR, BRE, PAH, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CRO, PMC, ENN, FBG, NDE, JPR, MAA, RFS, TMA, IMH, FP, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": BED, CPT, CFB, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed above, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market.

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: add, BMC, CBRL, CNU, DMN, DO, FIT, HXL, IMG, LKI., LWN, NAUT, NEM, OLGC, PAGE, REV, RGR, TCK, UAG, VLO, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, "repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) ACE, ADM, ALN, ALR, AOI., ARG, BAANF, BDR, BEV, BEZ, BGO, BTC, CBJ, CENT, CEXP, CFS, CLCDF, CNB, CPU, CQB, CXI., CYB, DETC, DOL, EAR, ELCO, GDC, GHM, GHV, GKI., HCM, HDG, HLX, HMY, HPH, ILX, IMP, INPR, JLG, JOB, KNE, KRY, LDW, LH, LSN, LUB, LYO, MANU, MKA, MLP, MSX, NETM, NEV, NOX, NPSI., NWAC, OI., OIL, P., PDE, PCAR, PDS, SEW, SOC, SSN, STRX, SUPX, TBI., TDW, TFN, TIE, TLZ, TMO, TRMB, TWA, VDC, WKGP, VSNR, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health"), plus, the Value Line issues: NSANY, DEMP, OFIS, SEW, TSA, MGN)....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....

*** NEW: these are longer, tighter depressed bases, directly from longer-term, 2 1/2-year, "Mansfield" charts:
health, medical/pharm. (AIMM, ALLP, MRII., NPRO, SCNI., TAROF, VMRX)
comp./tech./s'ware: (CSRE, GTSI., LSKIC, MIDI., OBJS, KTEC, PNCL)
telecom, etc.: (APAC, MRVC)
leisure/entert.: (SHOW, FAIRE, ONST, WCCI., (all real risky/cheap)
capital goods: (DETC, DSGIF, FAVS, ISCO, JPEI., WAFTZ, WSTNA) (most are bigger companies)
Note, some of these have high $ cash/share, little or no debt, and/or earnings, for those of you who value those things....others are REAL cheapies/very risky....there are others I am checking, with similar patterns, will let you know....mind you, these are NOT "very-short-term" trades....but some subscribers wanted some longer, depressed basers, so here they are....just providing something for every need....

**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base" technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ?

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):

(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet) now, I add some more Puttables, again, after/into recent bounces:

Fuller, Potential Puts list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY, do NOT "chase down" much:

note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....note Larger/Growing list !!!
(banks/insur.) HLI., TROW, UNM, WABC,
(comp./techs/s'ware) add, MOT, to, BSYS, CPQ, PKN, MANH, QLGC, TSAI.,
(telecom/commun.) CDRD, COMS, TLAB,
(medical/health/drug) BMET, BGEN,
(internet) AMTD, ATHM, EBAY, GNET, MSPG,
(retail/food) ANF, ASC, AZO, BUD, GPS, MCD, RAD, SBUX, SVU, YUM,

**** also watching: add, LXK, VRSN, to, ("repeats") ADPT, AHAA, ALSI., AMP, BBOX, BEL, BLS, CCRD, CEFT, CFR, CSGS, CXR, DKWD, DL, EAII., EFII., EGRP, ESRX, ETEC, EXPD, FNM, GMSTF, GNTX, GPU, GTSG, HAN, IMNX, IQIQ, ISSX, JBL, JEC, KSS, LCOS, LAF, LIN, LLTC, LSON, MACR, MANH, MCK, MCRL, MKL, MM, MPO, MRIS, MYG, NAB, NCOG, PBI., PDX, PL, PLH, PROX, PZZA, SAPE, SCH, SCMM, SEGU, SFXE, SLVN, SPW, SSP, UFBI., USTC, USW, VECO, WHC, WIND, WLP....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in noe particular order, Extended Supermarket, Restaurants, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Homebuilding, Consumer, Utilities, Banks, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, and all Tele.-Commun., in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....the list Grows....

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:

VIEW THE CHARTS....VIEW THE CHARTS....VIEW THE CHARTS.... Been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets".... Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I promised I would re-run "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm"", and, from 12/7 NL, through the 12/28 NL, I did so.....refer back to those sec. (8)'s any time.....hope they helped....but NO special "lesson" today, except to re-read recent explanations of stages 1-7....take that time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....

NEW NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4 follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3, ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times: all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact.... period.

Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up "revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ? (plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)

Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves.

Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops, and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1 and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of each stage.

As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.

Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/ logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.