1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) I hadn't folowed-up on my firts/only-made prediction from late last year, that many e-commerce stocks would fall by end of Jan. '00, because they would have much lower activity/sales after the Xmas season....and, in Barron's 1/24, they finally mentioned, how, EGGS, E-toys, PCLN, EGRP, theglobe.com, NTBK, AMZN, AOL, ASKJ, etc., are all down over 50 % off their previous highs, when 'the experts' were all over them bullishly, as you know....but they referred to their recent necklines as "brutal plunges", which is also misleading....they are still way UP from their all-time lows, yes ? I also find it insulting that they seem bent on slamming AOL and AMZN, and they still are hanging in relatively well, though, as you know, I wouldn't touch them here anyway ....2) obviously, we removed most depressed "aero./def." stocks, as broke down....no damage.... 3) front-page L.A.Times, 1/29, a correct chart, showing a now-inverted 'yield curve' (which I mentioned recently, whereby 2-yr. bonds pay more than 30-yr. bonds, dig ? NOT normal....and most often, a pretty bearish thing, historically....and, normally signalling a Recession, which I may end up being, as usual, among the very first/few to have predicted, herein, for you....
4) am I the only guy noticing how QCOM is already down almost - 50 % off its high, and NO one else is mentioning that ? "but, Jim, it's a great company, and I couldn't sell because I would owe taxes, and I am too psychologically insecure to use stops to protect, etc." yadda, yadda....as I said, the 'smug lucky traders' are going to wish they sold anywhere near the highs on Techs ....the "PSY-chological" pattern never changes.... 5) note recent 'hanging in strength among real cheapie Gold stocks', I gave you herein....hmmmm.... 6) also note, although I missed some, I was, again, the first/only to give out extended "Publishing/Media' stocks as puttables for you near highs.... 7) and, I was again, the first/only to add even more depressed Bank stocks, in section (6) below, as others get too bearish, too late, as usual.... 8) Mon., 8:35 am, CNBC's Bob Pisani, confirming his chart-pattern ignorance in "Paper" stocks, yet again, said, "I don't get it....there is no news at all on these stocks, how come they are down ? they had recently reached their previous highs and looked great...." Gee, Bob, ever heard of a double-top ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Fri., 8 am, CNBC's Ted David very incorrectly said, "as Wall Street cringes at the prospect for higher interest rates, we'll take a look at interest-sensitive stocks today...." Gee, haven't the Utilities been popping up, not down, lately ? and the T-bond, up 3 points already, S.T. ? and, aren't many Banks/Insur./Finls. bottoming soon ? as usual, they 'report' a 'trend/item', as if it "will occur", when, in fact, it has most often ALREADY occured, and/or been 'discounted' within the market....the pattern never changes....re-read my "Scenarios" and "Media" booklets.... 2) front-page headline, L.A. Times 1/29, "stocks tumble in anticipation of major boost in interest rates"....to which I say, bull---- ....re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets, about how they always try to manufacture incorrect 'reasons' for moves....then, they compund their ignorance and misleadingness, by immediately saying, "stocks plunged Friday after a govt. report of surging 4 Q economic growth...." yeah, right....stocks rise while they fail to foresee growth, then, in one day, they 'plunge' on such growth being recognized ? not....remember, No 'links' ! And, then they get even more harmful, by showing a chart of the NASDAQ index, saying, "the tech-heavy NASDAQ hasn't given up much ground"....as if it won't, dig ? just wait till some of their 'necklines' break....I'm sure only after they fall bigger, they will then show a chart as bearish, dig ? ....3) gotta give a little 'prop' to the L.A. Times, their price chart of "elec. util. stocks" 1/25, was still late, but at least they showed it at a more low, than high, level....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) see the "EURO" currency making new all-time low, as I predicted herein last year after it rose initially ? this is occuring even as Merrill and 'the 95 %' keep predicting much improved economic growth in Europe, dig ? more proof, that one cannot automatically 'link', financials, and price moves of financial instruments....re-read my "Scenarios" booklet.... 2) did you know that, the stock market value of "JDSU" is now the 501 st in the country....just slightly smaller than the 500 th stock: Berkshire Hathaway....wow....it may actually end up in the S & P 500 soon ? amazing.... 3) the Media keeps saying that "AMZN dropped on news of layoffs...." Not....it had ALREADY dropped nicely, beofre such 'news', right ? the pattern never changes.... 4) amazing....in summer of 1998, when Forbes Mag. ranked it among 'the 200 best small companies in the nation', I was the first/only guy around to specifically call for a top-and-big-decline in "DAYR" stock, a local company which the local papers' "experts" loved at high, as usual....anyway, i followed that up a few months ago when initially correct, and, now, front-page L.A. Times, 1/29, showing chart of drop, titled, "Tumbling Performance" --- super-bearish now, of course, as "sagging under high debt and sloe in response" --- with DAYR stock around $ 1 1/2, down from $ 25., where I gave it out in my NL as a short....last, watch for this one to base, and pop, ahead....which the Media and experts will miss, as usual....Next.... 5) while we eschew fundamentals, I see that "VSTR" just issued --- get this --- $ 1.5 billion in junk bonds at a high rate....so we added it to our 'cruisin' for a bruisin' list, yes ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers:1) Fri., 7:50 am, CNBC's Joe Kernan said, "many B-firms are jumping on the bandwagon for 'DCTM' stock up here...." But he did not mention how low it was not too long ago, when I gave it out herein in its base for you, see it ? ....2) Charles Padilla, of SG Cowen, Barron's, 1/24, said, "the economy is much less sensitive to interest rate increases....a rate rise of a percentage-point or two doesn't matter...." Wow....I am not so sure, from here, and given the significant L.T. weakness among 2/3 of all stocks since I.R.'s began rising, yes ? ....3) in some actually decent output, among Barron's recent roundtable: John Neff, a guy I have respected, likes DHI., WM, DAL, OWC....he is likely early on these, but at least they are depressed....rare, for managers in major publications....and, Meryl Buchanan likes IHF, HCBK, AFC, CFB, also each down, and gave JAKK as a short (I gave it to you herein as well earlier)....and, I should add, Mansfield Charts in N.J., again promised me I would be included in their 'year-ahead roundtable', then screwed me big-time....no reason given, no remose....no caring....great industry I am in, huh.... 4) a nice 'letter to the editor', Barron's 1/24, said, "Wall Street's analysts' primary function/responsibility is not analyzing companies: it is promoting companies under the guise of analyzing them....I take issue with the assumption that every company that looks even remotely like an Internet business is an untapped gold mine....probably 90 % of all such companies are not merely overvalued, they are worth nothing....and eventually, that is what they will be priced at....any sale made near their tops, pure luck." Well put....And, another letter suggests, as I have at times, that 'margin rates' be raised a bit, vs. trying to raise interest rates, to prick the 'Internet Bubble.' ...5) Robert Bissell, at Wells Cap. Mgmt., Sunday L.A. Times 1/20, said, "investors should view any declines in Tech. stocks as a gift....it's hard for us to build any kind of bearish case...." Famous last words, ay ? ...6) same article, an amazing comment, by Ned Riley at State Street Global Advisors, "if Tech. stocks were to fall more sharply in coming weeks, it would make the old-economy stocks more attractive by default...." Huh ? Gee, if/after Techs fell big-time, wouldn't they then become MORE attractive relative to Drugs, Banks, Trans., etc. stocks ? I mean, which would you have: an extended Drug stock still up at 40 PE, or a Tech. stock forming an EVB, down 75 % off its high, still growing fast, fundamentally ? How to these guys get paid so much, while I languish ? ....7) Bear, Stearns' Andrew Neff, on CNBC, today, 8:28 am, said their favorite recent stock was/is "ORCL" at 55-60 (ouch), which had a beautiful "PSYCLE sm" base last spring 9when they did NOT like it), then, recently, a nice rolling top, as I gave it out as a Put for you herein, see the patterns ? burn them into your brain for future usage....the pattern never changes....
e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) Barron's 1/24, "the trillion-dollar elephant: the Fed's new survey of consumer finances", Like the blind men groping the elephant, each seeing/believing differntly based on the area they are touching, the Fed has found that, instead of having grown at + 2.1 % from 19995 to 1998, "median household income, adjusted for inflation" had grown + 6.7 % over that period....in economic trems, this is a huge difference.... If true, explaining more about how the last few years have confounded the very overpaid 'experts' who are/were supposed to measure such things....and proving yet again, why "generally disseminated fundamentals, especially those from Govt. sources" are useless as D.A.F.P.P. factors (re-read my "Media" booklet).... Especially again, considering Mr. Greenspan's continual warnings during this period....did/does he know about this item as well ? oh, and their survey also showed that, while 66 % of all households owned their homes, fewer, 48 %, owned stocks, still, at end of 1998....making R.E. still, nationwide, the larger financial holding net worth asset, according to them, with median R.E. equity avg. $ 57 K, vs. median stocks avg. of $ 25K....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
more longs, and puts, simultaneously: 1/2 pos. puts MU (77 to 60) for VQ 175% G....1/2 pos. puts ETM (66 to 54) for VVQ 111% G....bal. calls URI (16- to 21) for Q 125% G....1/2 pos. puts APW (36 to 28+) for VQ 111% G....puts GETY (52 to 36) for VQ 150% G....bal. calls RTHM (26++ to 36+) for 111% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. IMG (6- to 10+) for 140% G....1/2 pos. puts ORCL (60- to 47) for Q 100% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. MAG (6+ to 9) for 70% G....1/2 pos. puts KING (65+ to 55+) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts MCHP (69+ to 56+) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. puts IATV (42 to 34+) for VVQ % G....puts DSCP (42- to 35+) for Q 80% G....1/2 pos. puts DOV (45+ to 40) for VQ 75% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. BTX (9+ to 13) for VQ 66% G....stock TXM (2 1/2 to 4) for Q 55% G....1/2 pos. puts GILTF (128 to 117) for VVQ 55% G.... calls NHP (12+ to 14-) for small % G....bal. calls PZB (18+ to 19+) for L.T.B.E.
and/but, longs, WEN, Z., HA, HLT, FOE, FLS, CHB, DLX ?, EC ?, CGX, SOI., AMTD ?, BAMM ?, ORI. ?, JBOH, and, puts, EDS ? MGM ? (for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
my goodness....shocking action here, especially among longside losses....very small as they are, still, quite upsetting, and temporary....most all Puts losses lately have been "Semis/Compu./Tech." stocks....but been way too many of them lately, especially on the longside, ay ? Usually quite rare (but not until lately)....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times ....again, "cutting, for real small losses" when necessary, which never hurts us much....in fact, they can actually help your 'psyche' over time, by keeping 'larger losses' away, yes ? Remember, more than a few of these "?" sales, are likely to revalidate, both longs and puts, driving us crazy, regardless....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
1/2 pos. ASH @ 32-, 1/2 pos. BL @ 13+, 1/2 pos. FSS @ 15+, 1/2 pos. HIB @ 10, 1/2 pos. KEY @ 20, 1/2 pos. MCK @ 20+ ?, 1/2 pos. ODP @ 10-, 1/2 pos. SHX @ 14,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. ABF @ 20-, AEE @ 32++, AMTD ?, ASHW @ 4+, ATHM @ 35+, AW @ 6++, AZC @ 0.70, BEV @ 3 11/16, BGO @ 9/16, BMC @ 4++, CAN @ 12+, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, DAY @ 0.06, DIR @ 12+ ?, DROOY @ 1 9/16, ECO @ 1 5/16, EGR @ 15+, EX @ 8--, FAF @ 12-, FAX @ 5+, FE @ 22+, FIX @ 7-, FPL @ 41 ?, FTR @ 3-, GRL @ 7++, GV @ 5/16, HUM @ 7+, IEE @ 8+, JBM @ 3--, LWN @ 7/16, MCH @ 18-, MIR @ 12+, MSN @ 9/16, NCS @ 14++, NHI. @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OH @ 2 11/16, ONE @ 29+, OO @ 5++, ORI. ?, RDL @ 3-, RDRT @ 4+, RPD @ 2 1/8, SMU @ 5+, TMD @ 5+, TWA @ 3-, WEL @ 0.44, WLV @ 13+...."buy (only) low", right ?
For those of you with patience, understanding the patterns, where suitable, for L.T., ITM calls options only, diversified only, these seem the best saucer bases here, stocks over $ 10 : in no particular order: ADM, FAF, EGR, WLV, ATHM, AEE, FE, just F.Y.I....there are plenty of nice bases now, in the lists above, check them out....remember, some are going to end up having 'fakeout breakdowns" before revalidating....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, AVS, LEA, VFC, CCG, CQ, CPL, TEI, CMS, BUR, MT, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) 1/2 pos. EXPD @ 43, 1/2 pos. LXK @ 96, 1/2 pos. MCOM @ 103+, 1/2 pos. MLNM @ 180, 1/2 pos. SANM @ 107-, 1/2 pos. SILK @ 170-, TEF @ 79, 1/2 pos. TEK @ 41, UMG @ 79-, ZBRA @ 62+, (br>
"Repeats": ADTC @ 73-, AXP @ 157, BHC @ 160, BRW @ 40-, CLB @ 22-, CMC @ 33+, CTS @ 80-, DT @ 74, FTE @ 134+, HWP @ 114, IMN @ 33+, INFA @ 103+, KING @ 65+, MAN @ 38, MGM @ 25+, MND/B @ 24+, MWD @ 70, MUSE @ 179-, NOK @ 185, NTPA @ 59+, PIOS @ 14+, QQQ @ 196, SIVB @ 55-, TIBX @ 181+, TV @ 67, WON @ 75-....
note: last NL's "?" questionmarked potential Puts buys, were because, normally, I would have had a couple of hours of market action, to judge, before I publish the NL, Monday, but market was closed, as you know....but I still wanted to share those with you so you could see their chart patterns....
and/but, took, , Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....this cleans up the list in section (7) more, for you....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", TSA, TMQ, MS, AVM, SWY, ALU, JCP, NBL, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, WMT, AUD, SFE, SCNT, ALLR, DISH, FDRY, MACR, CHINA, MTIC, TBH, GBIX, RRRR, RAZF, RMDY, VNWK, SUNW, NEON, SSTI, VTSS, SAPE, PTEL, NVDA, PLMD, AAPL, HH, SKM, CHL, MRX, NSOL, PR, PCS, VIA, WFT, CS, RD, MOT, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
GY 8 3/4 up 1/2, TXM 4 1/4 (S), JEF 22 3/4, MHX 16 3/4, MAG 9 1/8 (S), CCC 7.44, WMI. 18.06, WEL 11/16, higher, since last time here....and, SFO 75, IFMX 14+, KEG 9+, TMO 17, TOC 16+, PCMS 16, even higher still....while, URI., HRP, TXM, IDS, approach/hit their 200 DMA....and, IOM, pulled back to its 200 DMA....and, AIN 13-, 15, revalidated....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: AVL 8 up 1/2, ELNK 43-, MAH, NHI., GRL, CVD, HMY, MCH 18 13/16, AMTD, BIS, MHX, FTR, SCIO, ZMAX, NHR, BBC 6+, HRC, IMG, IOM, CKR, VBAC, HUM 7 1/8, 8 1/8, DDS, BMC, PZB, OCN, MHX, ATHM, SEI., VDC, HEB, RPD, SAMC, MUEI., LPX, RDRT, TOK, SOI., OH, LWN, SMU, GTN, FIX....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) CMS, AW, LPX, NHI., ECO, RPD, TGI., LMM, BBC, SCIO, VGZ, PMC, GTN, EC, WCC, TVX....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out: still giving you plenty more decliners, read them carefully: SILK -23, MUSE -18, RNWK +6, -24, INFA -17 1/2, GILTF -14, KING +3, -14, NT -15, TIBX -12, ORCL -12, HWP -9 1/2, ARBA -8, +5, -17, +9, -18, CLFY -11 1/2, DT -8, NTPA -8, GBIX -8, MCHP -7 1/2, LXK -6, NOK +10, -15, +5, -10, CMCSK -6 1/2, MCOM +2, -8, SANM -6, AVT -6, TV -5 1/2, AXP -5, TEF -5, ETM -5, GETY -2 (S), MWD -6, MGG -5,
more: DSCP -4 (S), MU -4, AXP -4, HHH +5, -10, +5, -8, ZBRA -5, WON -3, XLNX -2 1/2, ADCT -4, QQQ +4, -7 1/2, KING +3, -6, CBS -3 1/2, BRW -3, CDO -2 1/2, IATV -2 1/2, EXPD -2, MLNM -3, UMG -2, CTS +1, -3, CLB -1 1/2, COMS -1 1/2, DOV -1 1/2, ZBRA +1, -2, APW -1, CMC, lower since last NL....
while, DSCP, MCHP, VTSS, MU, APW, SYY, FON, AIG, DOV, TDW, 'the Dow', 'the NY comp. index', approached/hit their 200 DMA....and, ORCL, GILTF, KING, ORCL, PUMA, RSAS, ETM, ETA, QLGC, 'the S & P index', fell to their 50 DMA....and, BRK/B 1650, RD 54, OAT 56, HH 19+, HON 45, MGG, TDW 28, SNPS 42, fell still lower anyway....all were specifically given you herein near their highs....remember, with 'parabolics', they first fall to their 50 DMA as at least partial sales profits....re-read my "Mastering the Downside" booklet....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
hey, it's not my fault many stocks are volatile day-to-day....instead of viewing that as a negative, incorrectly, view these movements as a positive, creating opportunities to catch Puts when/as they pop, dig ?
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (HUM, BDX, BEV, TXM, HIV, TMG, BBC, etc., others have bounced, up already)
Prec. Metals (CAU, PDG, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, CCH, longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, these REIT's, most also with real big potential Dividends ? (NHR, NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, LTC, PDQ, CEI., GTA, ARI., JDN, KRC, AER, ALF, CBG, PAG, BPP, BTR, etc.) (also some Housing-related stocks, below)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, DDS, KM, S., GAP, HMY, RBK ?, BUR, OO, SRR, USV, some may need more work, technically, but likely to bottom ahead)
Foods (EGR, FUN, ADM, etc.)
Energy, Utility (AEE, WR, FPL, WEL, CMS, SUN, CGP, ASH, LYO, FE, MHR, EX, etc.)
* plus, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, "Funeral" stocks, down the road....Financials/Insur./Banks, and some depressed Internets, just below here,
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, CONV, ASHW, PAGE, ORI., IEE, NBL, ASH, to, SMU, RDRT, STS, DROOY, TVX, LWN, JOB, BWL/A, RDL, SFI., MSN, BMC, XCL, OCN, to,
also, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, DME, CF, BL, USL, AIN, EX, FSS, GY, SRE, HIB, HII, WAC, LEG, SHX, DHI., CQ, HBI., MIR, ICO, HS, RPM, SOC, FAX, PLSIA, to, IO, IKN, ABM, BPP, HMY, BSX, AN, ESA, KWD, LUB, JEF, MNY, NAB, TEI, CCG, PCP, BYX, UH, OMI, NOW, FTL, CKR, ATHM, BWA, CHKE, PBG, CMX, FUN, FTR, PTA, VDC, VX, CAN, AVL, NCI, STK, WSO, FAF, TMD, LUV, NCS, LTV, AW, GSR, BAMM ?, KRC, JBM, IM, NHR, SQM, MUEI, AIN, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades ....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, was/is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note, this list is still growing, what does that tell you ? obviously, some of these are down a bit already, previously given you....so expect a smaller list next time here....
* add, LMG/A, GUC, CBS, CRA, UMG, SCI, TBH, PCS, TTN, SKM, HNCS, SILK, SANM, GBIX, INCY, EXPD, OMPT, NEON, MLNM, CMDX, CDWC, ENGA, EXTR, AIRO, PTEL, PXCM, RRRR, VSTR, ZBRA, COMS, VRSN, SUNW, CHINA, ITRU, to, MRX, FTE, ETA, ETM, GPS, MOT, SFE, TIF, ADCT, CMCSK, SIVB, CSC, BRW, AVT, CHRW, MCOM, NSOL, NTPA, RNWK, VNWK, SSTI, CDO, VITR, CS, DISH, WIND, TIBX, MUSE, CCN, MDP, CMC, ALA, AXP, HWP, BJ, MHP, VIP, ARBA, AAPL, TEF, VIA, WON, OMC, BHC, QQQ, CC, FDRY, FCST, MDY, RCCC, CHL, ARMHY, NOK, INFA, DIGL, BCE, MAN, MMM, CLB, HHH, AIG, IMN, LCOS, CTS, MHP, HWP, MGM, TSCC, JBL, AFCI., NT, TFSM, from recent past NL's,
* Just view some charts, and if stock is now near its high, without having broken above its topping pattern, it remains a Puttable here and now, right ?
and, as I gave you recently, are these topping soon ?: BRCM, ADAP, CLRS, VPHM, INFY, CTSH, CTXS, CMGI, CPWM, PRGS, ATML, VOX, MACR, BVSN, CNET, TWTR, SILI, NTLI, CNXT ??? and, are, WCII, MGIC, ACTU, ADPT, having 'fake out breakouts' here ?
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: add more "Foreign Telecom/Tech./Webs" stocks, to, Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service, Wines/Liquors/beverages, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Retail, Foreign, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: in a different way to look at things, 'if' one wanted to somehow 'link' 'economic item A' with 'stock price moves of item B', one need look no closer than this: haven't many/most Internet/Telecom/Biotech stocks risen a whole bunch, AS Interest Rates AND Energy prices, have also been rising significantly ? yet, all the 'experts' specifically said, that when/if rates and energy prices rose, these Groups, many of which have no earnings, and high debt, would be specially hurt, remember ? See how dangerous it is to try to simply 'limk' things ? You would never hear someone say, "gee, I hope I.R.'s and Oil prices keep rising a lot, so my stocks can continue to rise parabolically", would you....I rest my case.... again....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....