1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) cash Gold cb headed lower anew.... 2) and the 30-yr. Tbond fell below 114, headed lower also ?, simultaneously... .... 3) but ina real stunner (he must be reading myoutput, Sjuggerud now formally is beginning to short the Euro and buy the DXY< he's a little late compared to me, of course, as I have been better than he all along as U know, herein, but at least this may confirm my opriginal prediction since DXY 0.80: Dollar up, Euro down....neat.... 4) anyway, as predicted in the past similar instances herein, now the Europeans are lamenting the Euro's height (I mentioned/predicted this earlier herein recall), starting to ask China to help their Euro lower....dgms....once again, the pattern srarely change, nor their sequence, ay ?, U know what to do....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) once again, as i have taught U, notice recently, mtg. rates have fallen, yet so has RE prices and activity, NO 'link', dig ?, re-read my Booklets....anyway, EWT asks, 'could it be that Greenspan is trying again to slow down an economy that is not as striong as the govt. says anyway ?", to which I reply, touche, that;'s what I have been saying, herein, yes ? ....2) read in recent TDR NL, that the $ 283 B. your govt. has already spent in Iraq, "equals $ 10 k. for every human in Iraq plus Afganistan - more than the combined GDP of Israel plus Argentina"....next....
3) recent headline from LAT's Tom (dgms) Petruno, "dont automatically rule out buying/holding a stk. mkt. sector which is already way up on a hot streak", again proves so many things about his mediocrity, my correctness, and my PSYCLE's value.... he kept mentioning 'value' vs. 'growth', when neither means nor helps anyone in any way, then, he continues to ignorantly eschew buying near lows on bad news with stops, never adding stops, yadda, yadda, a waste....as usual.... 4) and, as I have been saying from the start, there is NO 'oil shortage that will permanantly destroy/inhibit everything forever forward" - and i have been saying this since the early 1980's top in crude price....a recent EWT tome correctly pointed out that price changes rarely directly relate to supply/demand anyway, plus, today's WSJ article, "oil, oil, everywhere" correctly showed our point.... prices are more PSYchological than anything else, period....for just one example, extractiuons costs they wrote are very low in Alberta, venezuela, and the Persian Gulf, over a century's worth of oil still quite available - even at today's highest-ever consumption rate ! dgms....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) 1/10/05 front-page headline, "US job growth best since 1999" - yeah, right, maybe some cheapie jobs filled by terrified people, but, geez, no way, I say....of course, Your Govt. likes such headlines....next.... 3) and, exactly as I predicted near its parabolic top herein, as i have with so many other similar tech. stk. tops over the years, only now, after TASR stk. has corrected big, do I read articles about the SEC 'probing' their finances, orders, etc., dig ?, R U learning the prepeating pattern ?, anyway, i figure, down the road, others, like, EBAY, will fall prey....as usual, U will have heard it herein 1st....4 ( Feb. 05 MONEYT article, hints at 'doomsday for the Dollar'", another pot. bullish contrary sign, yes ?....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) B.S. now writes, "sentiment on Bonds is so negative, gotta mean a new upleg in bonds, down in I.R.'s, is ahead, isd a prescription for a new rally now"....hmmmmm....and then, as i said recently, the 'huge bond guys' had a recent convention, and they "expect bthe yield on the 10-yr. bond to SURGE to 5 %, from 4 3/8 %, in 2005"....excuse me ?, wsince when is such a small rise, a "SURGE" ?, re-read my "words used" booklet treatise, oy.... 2) anyway, B.S. reviewed their '5 must-buy stks', from 9/24/04, they were/are: ACF, AHC, EMN, FDX, TWP....as of 1/26/05, none are up much, and i am again aghast at their choices, no seemingly logical nor patterned reason d'etre....and people pay that NL money, next....
3) and Richrd Band (dgms) doomer, new come-on headline, "a terrible shock for stocks and america coming", wrote, "wall streets worst nightmare ! boomers retiring, are going to pull billions/trillions out of their pension plans, and out of tech/growth stks, to support their retirement, real soon, casing a terrible shift in fortunes for all america !"....uh, OK, but, if that was/is to be so, how come the billions they lost after the y2k top has not done so ? get it ?, I say, ridiculous to worry about that yet, anyway....polus, my PSYCLE sm will catch tons of long & short IGR moves along the way anyway 4 U, right ?, next....
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) yet more signs of the end of logical civilization, is the stream of crap output by the ignorant over-religious mysticism baloney, actually mentioning 'an act of god' aligning with the tsunami....dgms.... 2) read int. treatise in recent OCR, Humberto Cruz, correctly explaining the value of compund interest, and correctly warning potential l.t. savers not to put $ into low-yield MMF's, etc. - the time-old example of $ 1 K dep. at birth of a child, growing to $ 1 mm at age 70, assumes - get this - obver +10 % annual income, every year....dgms....plus, also as I have been teaching for decades, at age 42, the child will have 'only' $ 64 k - a far cry from $ 1 mm, dig ?, the 'problem' with compoiunding l.t., is that the great bulk of the earned money only accrues much LATER, dig ?, got that ?
3) recent doomer BullMkt. Denholm's NL said, "america invested/sent a very high $ 16 B. overseas in Nov. 04, the highest amt. since 1977 !, of course, their doomer inference was that, "see ?, americans and companies are fleeing the DXY", but, as U know, I still see a DXY bottom, opp. what the 95 % are/have been saying since the DXY bottom....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
0 more Longs, neat....
and,
0 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
bal. calls DXY (80+ to 84) for % Gain....bal. puts UCBH (48- to 40+) for % G....
and/but, longs, STTS bd ?, bal. RPMM bd ?, fo ?, and, puts, GOOG (fo)bo ? dnspy, BPFH bo ?, for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 CEGE @ 6 1/2-, 1/3 BLDP @ 6.1-, 1/3 TQNT @ 3 1/4 ?,
1/3 SPRT @ 5.1, 1/4 CLTK again @ 0.80-, 1/4 BLLD @ 1.50 wcs, 1/3 ETLT @ 0.40+ spec,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): STTS bd, SEHO @ 0.14 fobd, RPMM bd ?, 1/4 SINX @ 0.02- super spec, no ESST, bd ?....
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, SANM bd, LEXR bd, BCGI bd ?, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
added, EWJ @ 11-, COMPX @ 2150+, puts on some Bonds, 30-yr.March, @ 114+ ? (TNH5), and 10-yr. bond @ 113-, maybe even the major stk. indexes, like, COMPX @ 2100, OEX @ 570-, etc., to,
1/4 GOOG fobo ? @ 200+, BPFH bo, no ?, EVG @ 41+, Crude Oil @ 49+ again,
"Repeats":
copper again around 1.47+, ACAT @ 27 again, BKMU @ 12+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", SOHU ?, CY, CMOS, DSPG, EVC, IDTI, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, XMSR, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
several nice pops among given-from-lows techs:
ETLT 0.44 pb, 0.50, CEGE 7.09 up 0.72, BLDP 6/00 (B), 6.26, up/further since last NL here....
and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:
SPRT 5.51, 6.57, but 6.00, CLTK 0.82, 0.98, BLDP 6.00 non, BLLD 1.66 pb, 1.80, BLDP 6.09 pb, bopb, CEGE 6.60 pb....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
TQNT ms, psok, DSS, SEBL 8.57 cbd, oy, sos, PSY 22.63 up, vstbo, soso, PMCS 8.95, 10.45 msa, L. fobo ?, CNN cbo, RPMM 0.20. 0.28, 0.18 bopb, SVNT sos, msa, STTS 5.88, 5.30+ (fo)bd (S) ?, 5.56 sok ?....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
10, . down/lower since last time here ....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
COMPX 2054 up, TRAN 3557 up, OEX 562, 560, EVG, BKMU dn, fobo, BPFH fobo, 2690, 2820, 2660, Copper, posas, Crude, ACAT, the March 30-yr. t-bond, non, are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when they should be falling more....and might GOOG 177, 189, be another fobo ? C ? sow....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
*** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depessed....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, CPN obpbo, AMD/recons obpbo, SFE opb, CEGE, SOHU ?, to, CGFW opbo, SINX fobd, TXEO another super spec. ?, BLLD opb, BLDP, PCLE tln, CY obpbo, CMOS tln, ESPD obpbo, STTS no ? bd ?, SKIL ?, SWY fobd ?, SGI. obpbo, PKS ltp ?, to, RPMM ? fobd ?, TSM tln, NYB ?, SONSE, SYNO ?, LSCC opb, ISIS ovbpbo, SANM no, bd, TQNT opbo, BCGI. no, bd, XOMA tln, CLTK, ADCT ovbpbo, SUNW obpb, SPRT bd ?....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, WIW, to, PMCS recons, eh, RMBS obpbo, DCS ?, ZF obpbo, EVC obpbo, to, CNN obpbo,
and, watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both are already around 11+ and 13++ now, so too high ?, yielding 15 % each here anyway ?, eh, tln ?,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:
note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....
added, EWJ, crude oil again on strength, bonds on strength ?, indexes, AAPL fobo ?, XMSR ?, SBUX ? (see above), to, DAL oso, GOOG fobo ?, GCD ?, UCBH, ACAT, EVG, BKMU bo ?....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES