1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Well, couldn't get anyone to buy ANY puts ahead of the Fed stuff, Mon./Tue., so what did that tell us ? but semi-kudos to Big Charts, who, Tue., 'warns of Fed disappointment and cautions here, and selling after/into the news', as I taught you....and to Harry Dent, who saw the same S.T. resistance-after-bounces that I did lately....but as I said here last time, he is much more bearish than I am after pullbacks, and would not buy basers here....so we shall see....

I.I.'s "% of stocks above 10-wk. MA" figure up to 76.5 %, according to CNBC, Wed. 8:30....so getting a bit overbought, dig ? plus, as bullishness grows, I am all-of-a-sudden getting resistance from nice clients to selling into strength here, and worse, from other people who refused to BUY these stocks at Dec. lows, dig ? the pattern rarely changes....

plus, while the 'perception' is that all interestrates have been lower, and will continue so, the FACT is, that the 'fed funds rate' is still UP, from 4+ % to 6+ % to current 5.7 %, over the last year....confusing, huh ? God forbid ANY media source would show proper perspective (re-read my Booklet on that as well), of ALL 'rate-sensitive vehicles' charts going back 1-2-years, at once, so the truth would be apparent....meanwhile, we take gains, expend cash slowly here, have some, vs. no, Puts, and relax again pending pullbacks....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) the 30-yr. T-bond has made its yearly high in January, 8 por the last 12 years, as I expected, yes ? and, even after bounce Tue., the Bond remains BELOW my 'top', yes ? as 'the 95 %' really over-pitch bullishly, the Bond, get it ? with, uh, $ 38 billion in new TReasury paper due out next week, dig ? perfect S.T. more-toppy than bottomy action, are you learning the pattern ? ....2) our extended Retail stocks must weaken soon or else....now, some may 'fobo', as others have, but watching closely, conservative.... 3) well, as usual, I will have been the first/only to give out Linux stocks right from lows....you're welcome....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) of course, CNBC waited (Tom Costello) to mention the Linux conference, until noon Wed. - only after stocks up +50 % quicly already, dig ? the pattern rarely changes.... 2) beautiful: Wed., noon, Pisani actually said, "with the Fed now lowering rates twice, doesn't this open the door to a new bull market ?" - gee, doesn't get much better than that for a potential contrary sentiment indicator, ay ? ....3) Pisani finally mentioned KM at 9 1/2, as 'the best performing Retail stock recently', Thu. 8;30 - asking, "why is it up ?" he never changes, ay ? I gave KM out herein first, around 5, yes ? as a pot. takeover, recall....we shall see....of interest, Thu., they reported some Insider selling after recent rise, as 'the 95%' only now begin to buy, dig ?

4) Christine Callies, MER, on CNBC, Thu. 8:57, actually stunningly IN-correctly bullishly exclaimed (note emotional, dig ?), "there's no such thing as a bearish Fed rate cut"....so, watch for more pullbacks among already-up stocks, yes ? I hate TONS of proof her statement is WRONG, historically, a lot more often that she did not alert viewers to....and she gets paid for that ? ....5) PIsani, Thu. 9 am, actually exclaimed, "that's an amazing move up by LEH stock...", when, in fact, it is only up slightly from previous high, falling big in the middle, yes ? ....6) then, Pisani, highlighted a Coal stock only I gave out herein at last years lows, ACI, as usual, only after biug rise, see it ? NO one else liked 'coal' at lows, but me....the pattern rarely changes....Did you know that Coal still accounts for - get this - 55 % of ALL "Util. Power" nationwide....I also gave you PVA and HNP herein in low bases, yes ? but missed CNX, see its base a while ago ? amazing, isn't it....nope.

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) in perfect behavior, a MSFT exec., during the LNUX convention, 1/31, says that "Linux is doomed"....well, duh....of course he'd say that....he even says one 'reason' is "their vastly depressed stock prices" - as if he knew anything about stock pattern technicals....of further interest, MSFT invested $ 135 mm into Corel's Linux approach last October....huh ? and IBM announced it will spend about $ 1 billion on LNUX-based stuff in 2001....next....

2) this item is mine-created: talked with CPA here who was lamenting so many of his clients ('lucky yuppies') who had greedily and unappreciatively exercised cheap-price stock options at their companies in Y2K, then, spent and/or borrowed and/or bought other/more stage-4 Tech. stocks with the proceeds, or not sold their stocks as they parabolic-ed and fell big-time, without their protecting their gains/positions, so now, this April 2001, they actually will OWE $ in taxes, but now have a lot LESS cash to pay them, get it ? I laugh....so, once again, they learn nothing....worse this nice-guy CPA refuses to let me help educate him nor his clients for the next time, as usual....I also lose, and get no respect, and millions of people I could still help (could have helped) lose, nationwide ....the pattern rarely changes....

3) CNBC reported Thu. that the 'NAPM index' fell further last month, to the lowest level in over 100 months, since 3/91, further proving my economic yuckiness prediction....I called the 'econ. & R.E. top' in similarly in late 1990, recall ....get it ? ....4) in yet another example of 'sell into/after strength on the news/event', note AOL which they all hated near 30 recently (after loving at ridiculously high), topped S.T. the day of the merger with TWX, around 57, in a similar pattern to tons of Techs recently which only I mentioned/presaged herein for you, yes ? ....5) on CNBC, Thu. 11;25, MU said, "prices for DRAM's have been awful for 2 months now, and will cont. to be so..." , which is interesting, as I was first/only to give it out herein from $ 30. base, rose into 'bad news/financials' to hit $ 45. recently, yes ? proving yet again, NO "links' between stock, and fundamentals.....'nuff said....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) that guy on CNBC, Tue., who wrote "10 stocks that may change the world", actually had a few on MY basing list, so kudos to him: his list: CRA, WEBX, DMRC, ARBA, DCNT, GBLX, AVNX, INKT, INSP, MLNM, of which, WEBX, DMRC, INSP, ARBA, INKT, have been on my list near recent lows, yes ? neat.... 2) exactly as I was first/only to presage: now, only after pop from 8+ to 15-, Wed., 3 big b-firms shanged their 'sell' opinion to 'buy' on PCG>...the pattern rarely changes....and contrarily/similarly, 3 big b-firms finally come out with 'strong buy' rating on our AAI - again, only after rise from 4, to 8+ already, dig ? ....and, last, note several firms lowering ratings on CCRT - again, only after hugedrop....are you learning the pattern ?

3) and, only on Thu., did a slew of b-firms downgrade INSP - at $ 5., when they all loved it much, much higher.... 4) my disappointment grows in MSDW's Phil Roth, a VG technician years ago when I helped him at EFH occasionally, as he did nothing Thu. but rehash what has already happened - depresseds having nice reflex pops off tax-selling lows, and 'defensive' issues relatively weaker....said NOTHING of value, what a shame....he said, 'much basebuiding needs to come ahead before we get a sustained bull market", when, in fact, many bases already occured, and many of our stocks are already up +50 to 100%, yes ? shows the further folly of 'labelling', re-read my Booklet....but we do agree on there being plenty of S.T. resistance here for many popped stocks....and he still uses the I.G>R. concept I helped him with in the 1980's, so best wishes tohim, but.... 5) mgr. of the Calamos Growth Fund, who is actually DOWN in Jan. so far, after mediocre 2000 performance (how does ANYONE lose $ in Jan. this year so far ? don't get me started), on CNBC, Thu., 9:28, loves JNPR, "because it is good relative value to CSCO, and we also love LAB up here...." yadda, yadda....why do they even have guys like this ON, vs. me ? I can certainly understand having a rough Y2K, but a monkey throwing darts makes money every Dec./Jan. - unless buying extended stocks late....

6) well, thank goodness, CMGI sold its "Raging Bull' website to Terra Lycos for a reportedly 'bargain price' (still way overpriced compared to me, but I digress), as interest in stock-chat on the web wanes, also predicted by me early in Y2K herein....a Silicon Investor guy said, "they only tell about their winners, but how about all their losses ?", to which I have said for decades, yup....and, from the WSJ, evidently, in march 2000 at the activity peak, users spent about 100 min. a mo. on Silicon Investor, 90 min. a mo. on Raging Bull, 35 min. at YHOO, and 30 min. at Motley Fool sites....but, recently, that time spent has fallen by -25 to -50 %....and Raging Bull's time-spent had fallen so low, Nielsen cut off its measuring of that site, dig ? on hindsight, probably marked a .T. bottom in those stocks, Dec. '00, as I figured, sentiment-wise....

7) CNBC had technician Mike Krauss of JPM, on, Thu. 12:25, saying 'the NASDAQ momentum is the most oversold in YEARS, and is REAL close to a buy signal once over 3,050 NASDAQ index (he's late, notice, and i was in from Dec. lows, but I digress), and he sees target of around 3,400 ahead in 2001....as long as we hold 2,650 , we're OK...." He showed a beautiful L.T. chart of T-bond yields, a falling channel/wedge (re-read my booklet on that formation), saying, as only I have, that IR's have ALREADY fallen from 9 % to 6 %, and "we are closer to a bottom in IR's, after one more rally probably, not much more upside in the bond...." Well, kudos - finally, an intelligent guy interviewed on CNBC....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) after listening to inane callers-in (don't get me started about what that/this says about the nature of people out there) to sports radio shows, I now add callers-in to CNBC, especially those saying, 'great show' when they then ask about a stock they rarely make money in, and to most all guests answering in platitudes, and insecure, ignorant phrases, teaching viewers nothing ever.... 2) L.A.T., thru AP, 1/28, headline, "College Athletes lift more beer....outconsuming other students at Harvard....binge drinking....campaigns to cull activity have no effect" - yup, Human nature, exactly as my "PSYCLE sm" teaches....that's just the way it is.... and even among Women, at least 40 % of Harvard students 'binge drink'.... yikes....ahhhh, to be age 18-22 again.... 3) headline, L.A.T. 1/28, "big disconnect in calling-card scams" is exactly as I predicted, and why I have never used one (nor have I ever bought a lottery ticket, had coffee or a cigarette nor cocaine, nor do much of anything 'the 95 %' do or think, the way they do them, right ?)....one has no way to onitor or know how much time has indeed been alloted to any calling cards, ay ? what potential for rip-off, no controls, etc. caveat emptor....I never did understand the attraction of these....what do YOU think ?

4) and only now, am I finally hearing, "well, we assume that Calif. elec. rates will have to rise, to help alleviate the problem" - great call Einsteins ....don't get me started....meanwhile, I can only imagine the political BS wrangling occuring in the Calif. legislature....last, evidently Calif. has run Enron Cp. out of the state - one co. which could actually help the situation .... and, Thu., they refused to back an initial huge plan/law, 'because rates would rise for consumers" - well, duh, dummies....amazingly inept by California....do I hate politics, or what ? and don't get me started on the Ashcoft or Clinton nastiness lately.... 5) Thu., the Explorer channel actually excitedly pitched covering a Dog show....be still my heart....I guess they are running out of exciting stuff, ay ? reminds me of when ESPN covered marble tournaments, etc.

6) let me again go on record, being against the attempt to merge AMR and TWA, which would ruin what is left of any competition, and lead to even worse service, higher prices to us....great Govt./system we have, ay ? yet/and, DAL talking with NWA, and Continental looking for another takeover target....amazingly bad for us....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....