1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) as I recently said, depressed Banks, Utils., Energy stocks, section (3) and (6), among the best buys....in any given you herein, yet ? ....2) have you noticed, the T-bond has already RISEN about 5 1/2 points since "the 95 %" got-super-bearish, and I suggested you buy a Bank, and a Util., position....L.T., ITM diversified only....if you bought it, sell the T-bond into strength, as it is cose to its previous high around 95, last Fall.... 3) the depressed Internet/broker stocks, BAMM, JBOH, AMTD, DIR, (and, EC, AW), may have broken, for very small losses....but, as I said, seeing more 'slight breaks after long bases' which may end up revalidating anyway, so, based on YOUR situational needs, you could have taken Q, S, loss, or stick around, accepting a bit more risk in these....up to you....ATHM and ELNK are hanging in.... 4) starting to see cracks among extended Biotech stocks, as I very recently predicted....remember, 'the Media' will not even notice most of this, until they are down more, as the pattern never changes, right ?
5) the "SOX" semi. stock index broke out to new high again, shocking, I am stunned.... 6) the extended Foreign Telecom stocks may actually be breaking out/up, oy, so watch closely, potential Q, S, losses.... 7) note how many Food and Retail stocks I gave you as puts near their 1999 highs, are close to ending their 'second-stage' of their expected declines....stage 6 or 7, ahead, dig ? remember, most declines occur in two of three steps, with rally in between....and 'the experts/media' will hate them most, just as the bottom, right ? ....8) with "TMD" popping, a subscriber through Silicon Investor, pointed out how great we have been, over the years, with the "Thermo-" stocks, thanks.... 9) Thu., CNBC had Tom Burnett on again, who mentioned, ASO, SUB, FTN, RBFC, as potential L.T. Bank takeover candidates....agreeing with me, as you know.....do not be left out of this L.T. trend....I have given you a bunch of Banks in section (30 and (6) below in recent NL's....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) front-front-page, L.A. Times, 1/31, "Sizzling economy, fears of inflation, put stocks in dive", again, only AFTER the fact, short-term....saying, "economists have wondered for months why today's strong growth and rock-bottom unemployment rate were not generating any signs of inflation...." Which is why most all are vastly overpaid, and semi-useless, right ? well, we now have the highest such readings since 1997, and, of course, the Fed raised rates Wed., even though 'I.R.'s" have already BEEN rising for almost two years now.... 2) L.A. TImes, 1/31, in article on 'sizzling economy/inflation', wrote that, "a key source of alarm among economists and investors is a Labor Dept. report showing that costs of wages and benefits to U.S. business rose by 1.1 % last quarter, larger than the 0.9 % expected by everyone, and a substantial increase from the 3 rd quarter's 0.8 % rate...." Hmmmm, since when is 1.1 vs. 0.8, is a 'substantial increase' ?
3) on CNBC, Tue., 9:40 am, Bill Griffeth incorrectly said, showing chart of our "TMO", after interviewing their CEO, "you can see it has been moving sideways, as it awaits the resolution of its restructuring." Wrong....as predicted here first/only, it, and other "Thermo-'s" stocks, have been RISING since its/their lows/bases....geez, Bill, you showed the chart....get it right.... 4) amazing.... CNBC's Joe Kernan, Tues., 10:55 am, actually showed a 3-yr. chart of the NASDAQ, with its' parabola, pointed out the last two correction periods as just 'consolidations' (on hindsight only, mind you....at those times, he did not even remotely call any bottoms in the Techs at those times), and said, "it could be, with yesterday's reversal bottom, the last week or two may have corrected the entire big rise since October...." Wow....look out below ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) Interesting: energy prices almost triple, rising for over a year, yet all Smith Intl. could earn was 0.13 for the quarter....ditto other companies in this I.G. And yet EVERY analyst around who hated these oc hrlows, when I loved them, absolutely loves this I.G. up here, right ? ....2) similarly, our Nokia, NOK, announced much higher-than-predicted earnings (Bob Pisani, said "terrific", which ought to be warning enough, ay ?), a stock split, and takeovers --- and its stock still could not breakout....Again, most of the time, the chart pattern tends to overrule any real or assumed fundamentals, when up in stage 4.... 3) in an allied story, turns out that, after recent rough period, surviving health-providing companies, have been able to actually raise their rates to cunsumers, more than covering any increased costs....something none of the 'analysts/experts who have been overpaid to know things like that', predicted.... remember, I was among the very few/first to give out many bottoms and rises among depressed Health-related stocks for you herein....Now, of course, more analysts are more positive on these stocks --- only after they have already risen a bunch, as usual.... 4) the last time the Fed raised rates by more than 1/4 % point, was early 1995....after which the biggie-stocks ROSE, not fell....
5) Tues., "BBY" announced they are buying back (supposedly -- remember, less than 1/3 of all announced share repurchases ever fulfill, historically, right ?) more shares, to (supposedly) "enhance shareholder value"....yeah, right....First, they should have done this back when I gave this stock out, herein, in beautiful base, when everyone else hated it, and said they would go completely out of business, remember, under $ 10., and, Second, since when is buying a stock with this current chart pattern, "the best use of corporate money" ? ....6) as I predicted here after its IPO, I see "UPS" stock, which, as I mentioned earlier, ALL the analysts/mags/media loved at its high, is falling, from 76 to 57, so far....was hyped big-time, and way too many shares issued....actually, why anyone would ever buy ANY slow-growing, mature-co. "IPO" at $ 70+, when they could take shots at cheaper/sexier IPO's ? Well, plenty of people, and institutions, did....which explains at least human nature never changes....then Wed., CNBC's Bob Pisani, 10 am, asked, "if this co. is 'the highest free-cash-flow generator' around, how come its stock is falling ?" Gee, maybe because 'fundamentals' do not affect stock price moves the way 'the 95 %' have thought for decades....don't get me started.... 7) CNBC, late, as usual, had pres. of "HMSK" on, Wed., 10:27 am.... while I never even heard of this stock, is is parabolic now, way up from its 'base lows', see it ? the pattern never changes....they often only report about a stock, after its parabolic rise....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers:1) some helpful-to-learn-from items, from Barron's 1/24: a) LOD, CHT, ALI, had decent 13-D accumulation filings, and on pullbacks look interesting in potential bases, see them ? ....b) Jeffries just added EFNT and GSPN as super-buys at highs, I added them as puts, let's see who wins.... c) Lehman added JNPR, Prudential added PRSF, Tucker, Anthony added ARBA, all near highs, all on my Puts list, dig ? ....d) Credit Suisse finally lowered OWC to 'hold', a euphemism for 'sell', after big drop, dig ? I think it will form a bottom soon.... e) Dain Rauscher lowered AOL to 'buy', from 'strong buy', only after holding it into a big drop, no help.... f) Gerard Klauer raises RHI. from hold to buy, after it is up 100 % already, as I recently mentioned here, too late....in an I.G. which I gave out near lows, months ago herein.... g) Warburg, Dillon finally lowers "GIS" from 'hold', to 'reduce', another euphemism for 'sell', only after staying it during its dig drop, get it ? h) ING Bearings raised our "MSM" to strong buy, too late, but I gave it to you herein at lows, yes ? ....i) Dain Rauscher finally rasied "PTEN" from 'hold', to new 'buy', very late, after it is already way up, see these ? And you still want to be with 'regular non-special brokers at major firms' ? ....2) I love it.... Thu., the same 'experts' who said I.R.'s would rise forever, just two weeks ago (right ?), are all super-bullish now, and on CNBC, 8 am, T-bond floor brokers are talking about a 'short squeeze', and no top in sight....amazing, huh....great service they provide for millions of investors....not. Look to sell it into strength, as usual....the pattern never changes....
e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) nothing today....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
bal. puts MU (77 to 60+) for Q 165% G....bal. calls CVD (9++ to 14+) for 111% G....puts HHH (180+ to 140+) for VVQ 125% G....puts ETM (67- to 52) for VVQ 111% G....puts AVT (59- to 50+) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts QQQ (190+ to 170+) for VVQ 90% G....puts TV (68 to 56+) for VVQ 111% G....bal. puts APW (36 to 26+) for VQ 125% G....bal. puts DSCP (41+ to 35+) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. puts NTPA (60- to 48-) for VQ 75% G....puts ALA (46+ to 40+) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts CDO (38 to 33+) for VQ 66% G...bal. puts MGG (50+ to 42+) for L.T. 80% G....bal. stock SCIO (3++ to 6+) for 66% G....1/2 pos. puts AIG (112+ to 99-) for Q 75% G....
and/but, longs, DROOY, AMTD ?, ABF ?, SHX, WLV, DIR, PDQ ?, BAMM ?, AW ?, EC ?, ORI., RDRT (4+ to 3+), and, puts, SIVB, NT, XLNX, FTE, COMS, ARMHY, SANM, BHC ?, EDS ? TEF, TEK ?, MGM ? (for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....and, puts BHC, stk.on.mgn. SVE, BAMM, for B.E. trades....they, and UMG, LMG/A, are potential takeovers already, so removing from list....
my goodness....shocking action here, especially among longside losses....very small as they are, still, quite upsetting, and temporary....most all small Puts losses have been "Semi./Compu./Tech." stocks....but been too many losses lately, especially on the longside, ay ? Usually quite rare for us (until lately)....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times....again, "cutting, for real small losses" when necessary, which never hurts us much....in fact, they can actually help your 'psyche' over time, by keeping 'larger losses' away, yes ? Remember, more than a few of these "?" sales, are likely to revalidate, both longs and puts, driving us crazy, regardless....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
1/2 pos. BBC @ 6++, 1/2 pos. CQ @ 17+, 1/2 pos. DHI. @ 11+, 1/2 pos. LUV @ 15+, NBL @ 20 1/8, SUN @ 23--, USL @ 6++, 1/2 pos. XRX @ 20+,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. ABF @ 20- ?, ADM @ 11++, AEE @ 32, AMTD ?, ASH @ 32-, ASHW @ 4+, ATHM @ 35+, AW no ?, AZC @ 0.70, BAMM ?, BEV @ 3 11/16, BGO @ 9/16, BMC @ 4++, CAN @ 12+, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, DAY @ 0.06, ECO @ 1 5/16, EGR @ 15+, ELNK @ 40+, EX @ 8--, FAF @ 12-, FAX @ 5+, FE @ 22+, FIX @ 7-, FPL @ 41, FSS @ 15+, FTR @ 3-, GRL @ 7++, GV @ 5/16, HIB @ 10+, HUM @ 7+, JBM @ 3--, KEY @ 20, LWN @ 7/16, MCH @ 18-, MCK @ 20+, MIR @ 12+, MSN @ 9/16, NCS @ 15-, NHI. @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OCN @ 5++, ODP @ 10-, OH @ 2 11/16, ONE @ 29+, OO @ 5++, PMC @ 8, RDL @ 3-, RPD @ 2 1/8, SMU @ 5+, TGI. @ 23 1/8, TMG @ 5-, TWA @ 3- ...."buy (only) low", right ?
For those of you with patience, understanding the patterns, where suitable, for L.T., ITM calls options only, diversified only, these seem the best saucer bases here, stocks over $ 10 : in no particular order: ADM, FAF, EGR, WLV, ATHM, AEE, FE, just F.Y.I....there are plenty of nice bases now, in the lists above, check them out....remember, some are going to end up having 'fakeout breakdowns" before revalidating....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, PTA, CMS, LTC, AER, ALF, NAB, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) GBIX @ 45+, 1/2 pos. OMC @ 99, 1/2 pos. OMPT @ 114, RRRR @ 40,(br>
"Repeats": ADTC @ 73-, AXP @ 169-, BRW @ 40-, CLB @ 22-, CLFY @ 134, CMC @ 33+, DT @ 73+, EXPD @ 42+, HWP @ 115, LXK @ 96, MAN @ 37++, MLNM @ 200+, MND/B @ 24+, MUSE @ 172-, MWD @ 70, NOK @ 190, TEK @ 41+, UMG @ 80-, XLNX no, ZBRA @ 62+....
and/but, took, none, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....this cleans up the list in section (7) more, for you....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", MSPG, SRE, OMI, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, INCY, ITRU, PRGN, MDY, ENGA, CHINA, PXCM, CBS, CDWC, CRA ?, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
still giving you plenty of risers: WEL 1 1/4 up 9/16, VDC 2 up 5/8, TMD 9 up 2 1/4 (sos), SCIO 7 up 1 (S), USL 7 1/2 up 1, OO. 6 5/8 up 1, EX 8.93 up 0.93, CCC 8.06 up 7/8, PIR 8 7/8 up 7/8, DLX 29.06 up 3, NBL 22 1/4 up 2 3/8, SUN 24 5/8 up 2 3/16, NCI. 11 1/4 up 1, XRX 21 3/16 up 1 3/16, HIB 10 11/16 up 5/8, CVD 14 3/4 up 11/16 (S), MCH 18 3/4 up 1, MCK 21, KEY 21.06, ONE 30 3/16, JEF 23 5/8, FSS 16+, GY 8 7/16, NCS 15 3/16, SQM 33 1/2, AEE 33 7/16, DHI. 12+, VCR 3 5/16, EGR 16 1/8, ASHW 4 13/16, higher, since last time here....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: BMC 5 3/16 up 11/16, GRL 8.44 up 0.80, ELNK 46 up 5 3/4, ATHM 38 1/4 up 3 1/8, EC 17 3/16 up 1, GAP 26+ to 28 to 26+, TGI. 24 1/8 up 1 1/8, FPL 42 1/4 up 1, SCIO 6 (S), RDRT 4 1/4, HUM 8 5/8, BIS 1 1/4, VDC 1 3/4, ADM 11 5/8, MHX 16 13/16, HEB 8++, GY 7 3/4, AVL, HMY, MHX, FTR, ZMAX, NHR, BBC 6 13/16, HRC 6 1/8, IMG, IOM, CKR, VBAC, DDS, OCN, SEI., RPD, SAMC, MUEI., LPX, TOK, OH, LWN, SMU, GTN, FIX....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) IEE 4 1/2, 5 1/8 (sos), AMTD 16 9/16 up 1 1/2, BAMM 8 1/4 up 3/4, PDQ, EC, AW, LPX, NHI., ECO, DHI., RPD, TGI., LMM, BBC, VGZ, PMC, GTN, OCN, ODP, WCC, TVX....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out: still giving you plenty more decliners, read them carefully: MCOM -12, GBIX -10, SILK -7, +4, -10, TIBX -7, CLFY -6, KING -9, OMC -5 1/2, MLNM +8, -5, ZBRA -4 1/2, EXPD -4, AVT -3 1/2 (S), WON -2 1/4, +3, -3, GILTF -3, +8, AIG -2 1/2 (S), HHH -2 (S), ETM -2 (S), NTPA -2 1/2, MCOM -2, CTS -1 1/2, MND/A -1, CMCSK -1, +2, -1, IATV +5 1/2, -6 1/2, APW -2 (S), CLB +1, -1 1/4, CBS -1, MU -1 (S), UMG -1, ADCT -4, MAN -1, CDO (S), TV (S), DOV, lower since last NL....while, AIG, AVT, approached their 200 DMA....and, CDO, GBIX, approached their 50 DMA....and, GIS 30, LTD 30, lower still....and, GILTF, ETM, KING, fell to their 'neckline'....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
quick "PSYCLE sm" tip: often, after parabolic rises, seeing multi-point volatility illustrates 'churning' or 'distribution'....re-read my "Downside" booklet....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (HUM, BDX, BEV, TXM, HIV, TMG, BBC, etc., others have bounced, up already)
Prec. Metals (CAU, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, CCH, longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, these REIT's, most also with real big potential Dividends ? (NHR, NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, GTA, ARI., KRC, CBG, PAG, BPP, BTR, etc.) (also some Housing-related stocks, below)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, DDS, HMY, BUR, OO, SRR, USV)
Foods (EGR, FUN, ADM, etc.)
Energy, Utility (AEE, FPL, SUN, CGP, ASH, FE, MHR, EX, SRE, NBL, ASH, etc.)
Financials/Insur./Banks (HIB, ONE, FAF, JEF, OCN, XRX, etc.)....and some depressed Internets, just below here,
* plus, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, Funeral, stocks, down the road....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, CONV, PAGE, IEE, to, SMU, STS, TVX, LWN, JOB, BWL/A, RDL, SFI., MSN, BMC, XCL, NCI, TMD, NCS, to,
also, "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, LII., NGH, SCS, LUV, BL, USL, AIN, EX, FSS, GY, HII, WAC, LEG, DHI., CQ, HBI., MIR, ICO, HS, IHK, RPM, SOC, FAX, PLSIA, to, IO, IKN, ABM, HMY, BSX, AN, ESA, KWD, LUB, MNY, TEI, PCP, BYX, OMI, NOW, FTL, CKR, ATHM, BWA, CHKE, CMX, FTR, VDC, VX, AVL, STK, WSO, LUV, LTV, AW ?, BDX, GSR, JBM, IM, SQM, MUEI, AIN, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead.... and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, was/is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note, this list is still growing, what does that tell you ? obviously, some of these are down a bit already, previously given you....so expect a smaller list next time here....
* add, LMG/A, GUC, CBS, CRA, UMG, SCI, TBH, PCS, TTN, SKM, HNCS, SILK, GNET, INCY, EXPD, OMPT, NEON, MLNM, CMDX, CDWC, ENGA, EXTR, AIRO, PTEL, PXCM, RRRR, VSTR, ZBRA, COMS, VRSN, SUNW, CHINA, ITRU, to, MRX, ETA, GPS, MOT, SFE, TIF, ADCT, CMCSK, CSC, BRW, CHRW, MCOM, NSOL, NTPA, RNWK, VNWK, SSTI, VITR, CS, DISH, WIND, TIBX, MUSE, CCN, MDP, CMC, AXP, HWP, BJ, MHP, VIP, ARBA, AAPL, VIA, WON, OMC, BHC, QQQ, CC, FDRY, FCST, MDY, RCCC, HHH, CHL, NOK, INFA, DIGL, BCE, MAN, MMM, CLB, IMN, LCOS, CTS, MHP, HWP, MGM, TSCC, JBL, AFCI., NT, TFSM, from recent past NL's,
* Just view some charts, and if stock is now near its high, without having broken above its topping pattern, it remains a Puttable here and now, right ?
and, as I gave you recently, are these topping soon ?: BRCM, ADAP, CLRS, VPHM, INFY, CTSH, CTXS, CMGI, CPWM, PRGS, ATML, VOX, MACR, BVSN, CNET, TWTR, SILI, NTLI, CNXT ??? and, are, WCII, MGIC, ACTU, ADPT, having 'fake out breakouts' here ?
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: add more "Foreign Telecom/Tech./Webs" stocks, to, Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service, Wines/Liquors/beverages, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Retail, Foreign, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: brief technical/chart notes: see how, after breaking out/up, IOM pulled back right to its 200 DMA ? with the recent parabolic rises among 'fuel cell' stocks (which I had no idea even existed), please note, "FCL" had a L.T. base, but also -- get this -- 13 insider SALES, right in/during the base, and NO buys, before its recent parabolic rise....Once again proving that 'insiders' in-and-of-themselves, are NO better than any other group of people....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....