1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

during Thu. pb, most major indexes are trying to form multi-month mid-ranges, 3 s.t bottoms at the same level, with 2 s.t tops at the same level....I guess a moment of truth ahead ?, got me....as expected, the RSI falling, still in its since-Y2K-downtrend line, but its next decline to the '20' area, look out for the super-buy, yes ?

interestingly, the NYSE 10d A/D osc. seems ok, but needs more work ?, while the NASDAQ's shows it is trying to H & S which I have been expecting ? note, been still adding more and more in sec. (6) longs, see ? but still not probably hugely-yet right this second ? but do note sec. (3) buys in several potential triple-bottoms ?

1/30 B.S. tome says, "sentiment poll too optimistic", citing I.I. as 50 % bulls and 26 % bears, still....writing, "since the bear mkt. started early 2000, the previous 7 times readings were as optimistic as they are now, crucial downturns transpired after"....avg. SPX drop has been around -3.5 % within the next 60 days....hmmmm.....of course, s.t. anyway, you have had good Puts from me herein from s.t. tops, yes ? so you already have nice puts gains in many, yes ? and Erlanger, am, Tue. today, said, "we are hours from an acceleration on the downside", so we shall see....'if' one 'did' try to time indexes based on 'news' crap, C. Powell's addrress to UN, Wed., might lead to a v.s.t.o. reversal up for a couple days ? eh, we dont trade that way....

but that said, I still wonder if recent friday 1/31 lows might be a sideways trading range buy s.t. w/close stops long area, i.e., that 'not pb all the way to lows this time, B4 going higher' concept, dig ?, so I rec'd. doing so in sec. (3) below....plus, one of the few decent guys in the NL biz, Yale Hirsch of the Stock Traders Almanac, on CNBC, Mon. 11 am, noted how the Nov.-Jan. time-frame did NOT produce a santa-claus-rally, nor a normally-historically-superior positive perf. in indexes this time around, really rare, dig ? also, i note (not heard from anyone else, btw), how, even with those 'first few days rally' this Jan., Jan. itself ended-up down for indexes, hmmmm....so much for the always underperforming news-monger-traders, who again went long after that semi-furious rally, only to, as usual lose money longside after....if more people just followed my output, ay ?

of interest, the NASDAQ has now remained below, and all rallies have been capped by, its 200 DMA, since 9/00 top....while the 95 % and most pros are bearish period, still, I still see signs of next rally-after-pb's poking above it finally, triggering some buy-stops, etc., for you traders out there...not a huge rise, but a decent pop, and a decent continuation of our l.t. bottom process....but that said, Mon. had a very high 1.15 one-day P/C ratio, the first of its kind since last Oct. '02 ?, as such, a Wed. reversal up for a v.s.t.o. pop looks better ?

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) saw nice chart of the CRB commodity price index (which i have covered many previously times over the last 20 years here), and it's, as i suggested, a saucer bottom, rising recently, NOT mentioned anywhere I have read, dig ? current level approximates that of 9/97 and late 2000, hmmmm....not expected to be seen if an economic apocolypse/depression was at hand, right ? ....2) even as i am not crazy about any straight Bonds, keep in mind that l.t. IR's remain in a downtrend....as I said, my prediction is for a counter-trend rise to the downtrand line - not a huge rise in rates, right ? ....3) gee, I detest and didnt even listen to Bush' s.o.t.u. address Mon. nite, but he did mention alternative energy, an I.G. only I like around recent lows given you herein, yes ? am i good or what ?

4) note how more 'big-quality-name' longs I gave herein from recent lows, are popping, seems i am among the very few catching them here - I should be managing billions, ay ? ....5) while as U know we are not yet long the SMH nor many Semis, and saw a little bd last Fri. anyway, i still say, ahead, many WILL setup as buyables, i will let U know when herein as usual, historically....just not right this minute yet....also, I hear no one else out there mentioning how Semi. eps earniongs numbers are rising already !, hmmmm.... 6) more of those depr. alternative-energy stocks shaping up, ay ?, am i the only guy noticing this ? ....7) and, Brokers look better, I will certainly be the 1st/only to foresee that, ay ? ....8) the depr. truck/airline/trans. stocks shaping up as well, ditto me being the 1st....also, depr. Mexico and those Brazil stocks, again ? ....9) also note, added some potentially high-div. REIT's anew, long, after being the first/only to properly give some out as Puts herein 4 U, neat.... 10) and while you have< made so much with my Gold trades, recently wrong with cash Gold, RGLD, for vqvsl of no consequence.... 11) cash crude oil 32.75 dn 0.75 finally beginning its s.t. descent ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Govt., etc.:
1) as usual in the PSYCLE pattern, too many only-now-at-highs articles continue to abound touting Gold and OIl (which seems to be forming a l.t. double-top, with its late-2000 levels ?) - as we fade them, right ? again we ask, where were they at the lows ? oh, yeah, short - as I rec'd. going long, herein, yes ? why more people have not learned/employed my stuff, is staggering.... 2) I again saw Fed. reserve chart of USA 'personal savings rate', rising....how come that is not reported many places, as i do herein ? ....3) and, again, anti-kudos to Media, which, only recently at $ 33 bbl., reported on front pages, "oil prices at 2-yr. high as supply tightens" - so you know what to expect forward, in the normal, usual pattern, yes ?

4) little-bitty kudos to LAT, 12/31/03, which front-page actually inferred that "tech. ind. may need upgrade in 2003....firms' need to replace aging PC's and rising sorp. profits may spur broad equip. and IT spending cycle", says exactly what i thought only I was first to suggest herein - that depr. tech stocks would outperform, and that their recession was over, yes ? Sure, slowly at first, but real, IMHO....don't miss it/them....or will you be like the 95 % and wait till you see signs of a big upturn (PSYCLE sm pattern stage 3, yes ?) at which time you will be greatly paying-up for stocks I give herein at lows, yes ? one little thing: they said that 500 mm PC's are too old to run Windows XP, and Win '98 and NT versions will not be supported by MSFT after 6/30/03 ? also, equip. purchased up till 1999 has been fully amortized by companies nationwide, and they can buy new stuff and get new deductions....and, chip mfgrs. are already improving, as seemingly only I have been pointing out herein lately....I rest my case....what are YOU gonna do to take advantage ? find me money to deploy !

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) amid recent policy debates about how/if/when to employ USA oil reserves, and was pleasantly surprised to see, according to recent LAT, the Intl. Oil consortium holds 1.3 B barrels of strategic oil here....plus, 2.6 B more held by US oil corps. currently....thats equivalent to 114 days of imports (plus, we have some oil exports and a lot of domestic production, yes ?....the USA govt. reserve holds 600 B. barrels of oil....anyway, that would have been enuf to cover the entire previous Iraq 1990-1991 war period, WITHOUT any need for foreign oil, dig ? think about that....and, more than enuf to handle the Iran/Iraq shortfalls potentials possible....so, we are still not that badly off....the price rise (and likely s.t. top) in oil prices, continues, as I said from the start, to be mostly PSY-choligcal, within bounds....

2) hey, Thu., a govt. guy actually said something correct: that a $ 200 B. budget deficit, is still a small % of a multi-trillion dollar economy....as I have been teaching for ever.... 3) and, finally, MGIC admitted that the NATIONAL R.E. mkt. is softening, and was, even in the 4 th Q 2001....see ? nothing escapes the PSYCLE.... 3) and this year marks the 50th anniv. of 'MPT", H. Markowitz, Nobel prize-winning investing concept, U. of Chicago, etc. - who said, diversifying among differering unrelated IG's can help and reduce portfolio risk, etc....BUT - recent studies found the last few years have NOT conformed, and tons of coutry's returns fell concurrently, i.e., no protatcion from diversifying.... but I say/said, that learning to explopit the DOWNside is one real probably-more-valuable-in-recent-years key to protection - as is learniong to use stops proierly, right ? oh, where is MY nobel prize ? anyway, an intelligent guy on PImco's site postulated that Fed actions (as I also predicted years ago would happen) have had less and less effect on things-they-wish-they-did, because the items they wish to control, no longer come under the Fed's area, dig ?, worldwide stuff that no I.R.-lowering can control, dig ? hmmmm.....

3) wish I could confirm reading that in 2002, people pulled out $ 172 B. in refi's, vs. pulling out $ 44 B. in 2001....that is a LOT of money....I also read where a local O.C. guy tried to sell his baby grand piano, and the co. he called to do that for him, toldd him he gets 5-10 such calls a day - he expected getting $ 50-70 K from the sale, but now realizes there may be few people in O.C. to buy such an item....esp. in a place where yuppies are creating immediate $ 1 mm mtg. debts buying $ 1.5 mm houses....how do YOU see this ? last a VG l.t. friend, age 50-55, is seriously considering chucking it all, selling his Lido home for 7 figures, and moving to Hawaii, starting a little biz there....with cash and no debt....

4) read where , since Greenspan became Fed head, they have added $ 5 trillion in US dollars to the money supply....and only 800 mm new ozs. of gold....making each $ worth $ 6,250. per gold ounce....kinda unrealistic historically....while this was written by a gold-bug-end-of-the-world guy, it is interesting....he says that 13 % of outr stock markets, 35 % of our treasury securities, 23 % of our corp. bonds, and 14 % 'direct ownership of US companies', are held by foreigners (I wonder how many of those 'foreigners' LIVE/WORK inside our country ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) 21st Century NL David Nichols finally admitted his "monster rally off Oct. lows" has not materialized, and, also, his recent 'super-close to completely breaking down anew' tomes, aint fulfilling....as he reiterates daily how there is now too little fear (QQV/VIX/VXN being too low given recent declines, dig ?), to create a big bottom....he said he incorrectly that geopolitical stuff would create bigger new stock drops (which WE have been fading at times successfully, yes ?).... 2) and Tobin Smith ChangeWave, said, the day after puffing that 'huge pop in the VIX index', it reversed and was a fakeout....so much for THAT 'indicator'....he ramains real bearish, even from the lows....citing, "all Iraq, all the time" - doesn't he see what is happening ? ....anyway, after actually being slightly bullish Wed., after missing little bounces, indexes fell big Thu. instead....

3) still more proof of what I have also said forever, the recent "Dalbar Study", from a mkt. research firm in boston, showing, from 1984-2000 the SPX avg. + 16.3 %/yr., yet the avg. M. Fund investor gained only + 5.3 %/yr. - and, while the l.t. govt. bond index rose +11.8 %/yr., the avg. bond M. Fund investor avg. only +6.1 %/yr. ---- meaning, people, and most pros, still vastly underperorm the avgs., period....they just don't use my "PSYCLE sm" patterns, concepts, timing, stops, IGR, etc. ....4) and possible shame on Larry Wms. again, as i got the first unsolicited pitch from him in years in mail recently - the EXACT same one he used to send years ago ! what gall....and, recall, I hope I am correct and sorry if not, but wasn't he the guy who est. 2 opposed accts., making 4 1mm in one, and losing $ 1mm in the other, then just publicized the winning one ?, gee, i wonder how the authorities have treated him since then, of so....well, at least someone out there has huge resources to pitch their NL and svcs.....oh, just FYI, his 'statement in his missive showing the supoposed huge one-time gain', is dated - get this - 1986-1987 ! 'nuff said....

e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) more evidence of how dastardly your govt. IRS is, when I read where over 1.3 mm people were subject to the AMT in 2000, up 28 % from 1999, and paid $ 9.6 B in taxes, the previous system would not have had them pay, dig ?, i wonder how terribly even more unwitting taxpayers will have to pay for ty 2001 that way....dgms.... 2) Kaiser P., the H.C. co. (dgms) settled huge lawsuit with Calif. consumers recently, agreeing to supposedly, post its medical guidelines, doctors' pay structure, and disclose more policies on its website....we shall see, but am hopeful....just another sign of what I have been predicting correctly for years, ay ?oy....evidently they rewarded doctors who spent the least time with patients, big bonuses....and rewarded clerks for limiting or denying access to care, amazing, huh....'nuff said.... 3) 1/3/03, article, "J. Schneider, author of books and seminars on 'Hiding your money offshore', and his lawyer, were indicted on fraud against IRS, etc." - this guy had real big, famous, businessmen, pols, entertainers, on his roles....really teaching to evade USA taxes....well, they are definitely going to jail for years....how do you see this issue ?

4) and, in Bush's new budget projects - get this - a DEFICIT of over $ (300 B), amazing, since he came to poffice with a supposed SURPLUS of over $ +200 B, yes ? anyway, of course, defense and energy exp. will rise, while anything like health care, the less-affluent, kids, educ., etc., will be cut, relatively, dig ? dgms.... 5) and this one is a doozey, as I rarely like fundamentals, scenarios, etc., but, if the 95 % realized this, wow: while they all expected Bush to create Iraq war and takeover their oilfields for the benefit of the major OIl producing/discovering companies, in reality, freeing Iraq would Inscrease production, yes ?, and LOWER oil prices back down, as i expect l.t., to 4 15., from $ 33. here, l.t., dig ? the ONLY companies who will cash in, are - the oil SERVICE companies !, hence Bush's angle....XON, TX, etc., will NOT make more $ when/if we takeover the Iraq fields, dig ?

6) and final dastardly shame on whomever was paid-off to improperly allow SBC to offer long-distance in calif. - another budding consumer-hurting monopoly.... 7) and I wonder if this will end up being G or B, but the NASDAQ and NYSE took the first step towards eventual 'linking' of exchanges, by offering a bunch of options on a 'shared exchange', electronically, recently....first, 14 blue-chips, then, soon-to-foloow, the QQQ and MSFT....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....