1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Wednesday's action and bounces among extended stocks, effectively "locked-in" more suckers, who will definitely NOT sell those loved positions in the current predicted correction....good....Also be sure to read section (2) comments on market internals, as more historical indicators became more bearish recently.... But I am still getting too many nice subscribers who just patently "refuse to even consider Puts, ever, period"....Fine, as long as you do not simultaneously get jealous or upset when you do see Puts Gains (nor smug when you see Puts losses) herein....NO emotion, right ? But why not learn how to do it anyway ? Please re-read my "Downside" booklet....it has come in handy at times, yes ?
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and (5). Very clear sections. You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) obviously, added more Internets as Puts....but if any new highs on individual issues given, and out.... 2) also obviously, many of the extended Banks, Insur., Utilities, fell I was the first/only to have given herein near their highs.... 3) some Oil Service stocks are bottoming again, see section (3) and (7)....cash crude oil, showed stochatics S.T. buy signal, Fri./Mon. Feb. 1....Of interest, for the last 10 consecutive years, Crude Oil prices have risen into Spring, every year, from its Dec./Jan. lows, dig ? A decent seasonal pattern, which should help us ....so, obviously, we bought more Oil Service stocks, Mon./Tue., and our depressed Steels, an allied I.G. but they still must follow-through on the upside, which they have still not yet done....remember, I have been talking about "land-based" IG's outperforming "extendeds".... 4) the T-bond down a full point, today, if it breaks below the 124+ area, watch out for the slightly higher I.R.'s, I predicted .... 5) Copper stocks came to life, today....I gave you CYM and CCH and Inco, herein....6) well, 2/2, we have our first time an "Internet" IPO fell, but it has gottne NO press: "eSAT corp." (symbol, "ASAT"), fell from its initial IPO price, having not gone to an immediate super-premium....another nail in the coffin ? at least I may be the first/only guy to report/notice this one....we shall see....
b) 1) "NSANY", which I gave you herein but just missed, had been getting much recent press regarding a possible takeover, "because the co. has been underperforming"....of course, the stock is already up a bit from when I put in into the NL....just letting you know, again, good things happen often, when one buys, low.... 2) Tue. 2/2, U.S. Govt. announces housing starts in Dec. '98, FELL.. ..as I said, the bloom is off the residential R.E. rose in many areas.... 3) historically, 15 of the last 16 "pre-election years" have seen the S & P rise, avg, + 15-20 %.... 4) Wed. 3rd, Investors Intelligence figures showed Bears down to 26.7 %, the last time was this low, was 7/24/98 at 22.3%, and 7/31/98 at 26.3 %....and you all know what happened therafter, yes ? That was the first week I got on TV, and the interviewer scoffed at my bearishness back then, so what else is new ? cnbc's Bob Pisani., viewing that Bearish indicator, 8:30 am, said (quote) "I guess there is no choice but to stand pat, and not change anything here"....oh, really ? sounds like just another ignorant reporter offering no help to millions of deserving viewers....also sounds like a guy who has never done very well at predicting future stock prices, but I digress.... 5) Wed., 2/3, the recent "equity -only" put/call options ratio, fell to its lowest, and most bearish, reading, at 37 %, since Mid-1997....meaning, so few traders in options are buying puts, vs. way more buying calls, this becomes a contrary (Bearish) "PSYCLE sm" indicator at times of excess, for extended, big-name, popular stocks....just another plume in the potential "corrections in extended stocks" hat....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) gee, everybody else has continued to talk about lower and lower Interest rates (I.R.'s) , while I.R.'s had already stopped falling for a while....and, now, all-of-a- sudden, I am hearing tons of talk about a 1/4 % rise in I.R.'s by the Fed.... again, watch for a S.T. bottom ahead, among Utilities, INTO the moment when I.R.'s are raised, dig ? Because, by the time the "news" comes out in reality, it is too late to "begin" to buy puts in Utilities, right ? the pattern never changes .... 2) Tue. 2nd, 11 am, cnbc's reporter said, "Microsoft, the world's largest company, is down 3 today".... hmmmm....that is not even remotely true....tons more companies have much higher sales each year, and/or have way more assets, etc. While MSFT may have one of the highest "stock market values", saying what he did, was misleading and WRONG....then cnbc's Bob Pisani. compounded that incorrectness, by saying that "Utilities are always indicative of the direction of I.R.'s".... but, as I teach in my "Scenarios" and "Media" booklets, our Put Utilities have BEEN falling, already, yes ? Again, the moment the media views an already- occuring or occured price move, as "beginning", is the moment they usually finish, or begin to arrest, that movement, right ? An insidious concept, for the unenlightenend....they are always telling you what already happened, as if it is just beginning TO happen, yes ? but, rarely what will happen in the future.... 'nuff said....
3) cnbc's Bob Pisani, Wed., 3rd, 8:30 am, said, (quote) "why would Oil Service stocks be going up ? their earnings are abysmal....I can't find anyone who is buying them here"....good for US, yes ? ....4) the NASDAQ itself, 2/1, says they are considering "trading halts" rules, in/for (Internet) stocks "with rapidly changing share prices"....and you know what that might mean.... 5) Thu. today, our Maytag disappointed Wall St. with its eps....CNBC reported Brazil problems....Then, 15 minutes later, CNBC reported MYG had NO operations/sales in/to Brazil, apologizing....Gee, would it have taken them two moments to have checked that before they reported incorrectly, just to "dramatize/sensationalize' a simple story ? Oh, I forgot, they are the Media....Also, please view MYG's very-long-term chart, and see where I really did have my clients, buy MYG, in perfect depressed L.T. "PSYCLE sm" bases, twice, from around $ 10. in the early 1980's, then again, from around $ 15, in the early 1990's, for real....each time, those same analysts hated it down there....and MYG got written up as a "comer" in Finl. mags near each top....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) 1/28, Lehman Bros. began coverage of BCST, with a buy, at 180+, with a 12-month target of (only) 200....where were they when it was 105, recently ? they also began a buy on ATHM, with a target of 130, up from 120+ already....weird, huh.... why waste everyone's time with such late recommendations ? I am seeing a trend here, as more B-firms have targets, not much higher than current prices, dig ? Two big B-firms have also recently reiterated their "only slightly higher" higher targets on YHOO and AOL, but, as you know, in this stage of their "PSYCLE sm" nothing can help the Internet stocks, except a formal takeover offer....are you learning the characteristics of each of my 7 stages ? ....2) Schwab raised its margin requirements on Internet stocks, again, 2/2, from 50 % to 70 %, and maintenance margin from 35 % to 50 %.... 3) 1/29, Frank Barbera, KWHY-tv, after the close, mentioned we last had 5 consecutive days with more new Lows, than new Highs, on the NYSE, as a potential S.T. Bearish signal....I concurred, as you know....I hope to speak with him soon, to find what the derivation is/was of his "signal", historically, if any....I will let you know....
3) MS,DW lowered their rating on Nokia, from bullish, to neutral....hey, they may be right this time....of course, note, no outright "sell", just "neutral", as I teach at length in my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets, right ? ....4) cnbc, Tue. 3rd, had a mgr. from Nicholas, Applegate Funds on, and his, and my, opinions, are exactly diametrically opposite (a good sign for us, right ?)....he loves, from recent highs, INTC, MSFT, CSCO, etc., and said he "shuns" basic materials, and energy, metals, etc. We shall see who wins, from here....So many wing-tip mgrs. are so smug, not even hedging nor protecting nor lightening up in any extended stocks here....they held from last July through Oct., and they will hold them again this time around....but this time, S.T., they may not be as lucky ? ....5) cnbc, 9:45 am, Thu. today, said that Robinson, Stephens has formally stopped covering all assited-living, hospital companies, forever....Hmmmmm, note, they do this, only AFTER those stocks are ALREADY way down, dig ? Stage 7, get it ? Therefore, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., look for a long-term base to form, and/or some EVB's, ahead, among this I.G. not today, but will watch those stocks for you, L.T.
6) Wed. 2/3, 11:10 am, KWHY-tv, Tom McLellan himself, says, even though his Summation Index indicator is still declining, approaching the "zero line" (which would normally be bearish), said a V.S.T. bottom is due 2/9, with final bottoms by the end of Feb., then new Index-only highs till May/June, then another July top thereafter....But, see, he does no "Industry Group" nor individual stock, work, and will not say whether this expected July top will be "it" for the "bull market in extended stocks"....so, this is still not much timing/predictive help, dig ? As you know, I do employ his Oscillator at times, but have found, over the last 15 years, as with Elliott Wave stuff, readings/patterns are often too ephemeral and inconsistent, and they rarely come right out with specific, useable predictions, but they ARE very nice guys....I mean, as I have been saying, overall market A/D indicators, in a "split" market, have tended not to have been very helpful, right ? But I do applaud their work....
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2" sale....and, "css" means "covered previous short sale", where no puts options existed....
and longs, IMO (15+ to 18 to 15), TLZ, GHV, SHG, BEV, CQB, TCK, MPN, HPH, and puts, PKN (100+ to 89+ to 101), GPSI. (49 to 43 to 50), IQIQ (16 to 11+ to 16+), TWTR, AEOS, SLVN, CSGS, AZO, CSN, FRO, DL, for VQ, very small losses, of little or no overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio.
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We just
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and
similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of
course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(Note: Read again, carefully, for new, "re-added" repeats !!!) ALLP @ 3.06, AZC @ 9/16, BGO @ 3/4, BIR @ 4 1/8, CAU @ 0.31, CBMI. @ 2 11/16, CCH @ 3/16, CFK @ 1 11/16, CXI. @ 5/16, CYM @ 9++, EAR @ 5/8, ECO @ 1 11/16, ESV @ 9.06, FGI. @ 10.06, GKI. @ 2 7/8, GLBL @ 5++, HP @ 17, IIR @ 3 1/2, IMG @ 5 3/4, INPR @ 5.06, ISCO @ 1 1/8, MANU @ 8+, MKA @ 8+, MLP @ 9+, NGX @ 1/2, NOI. @ 10-, OFIS @ 6-, PAM @ 3 5/8, PAR @ 7 1/8, PDE @ 6 5/16, PDS @ 10+, PPP @ 10 5/16, RXSD @ 13 1/2, SAA @ 0.75, SSC @ 11/16, TDW @ 21-, TEN @ 30, TFN @ 4 1/8, TMO @ 16.06, TOX @ 3/16, UPX @ 1 13/16 , UTI. @ 6 13/16, VGZ @ 3/16, VRC @ 7 1/8, WCCI. @ 11/16....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should
already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/
fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5)
anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....I give it all....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns ....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times...."just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the
stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, FAX, OI., --- Off the pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks, some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips --- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) ALSI. @ 68, APCC @ 54, CMCSK @ 68+, COX @ 74-, CTAS @ 78-, CTXS @ 93, ELNK @ 80-, GAC @ 58, GNET @ 120-, JBL @ 73, KROG @ 40-, LCOS @ 144, MFNX @ 46+, NSOL @ 240+, QWST @ 64-, RFMD @ 74-, SNPS @ 59-, TFSM @ 38+, VOD @ 194-, XMCM @ 59-....
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) ADBE @ 49, AHAA @ 40+, ASND @ 87+, ATHM @ 129, BSYS @ 53, CBRNA @ 59+, CCU @ 64-, CEFT @ 40+, DCLK @ 111, EXPD @ 46+, GDT @ 57+, GE @ 104+, GNSSF @ 35, IIN @ 41-, JCOR @ 71, LLTC @ 103+, MCD @ 80+, MKL @ 180, MPO @ 32-, RSCR @ 25+, SPW @ 70, UFPI. @ 20-, VRSN @ 95+, WPI. @ 58+, XEIKY @ 28, YUM @ 49+, ZD @ 19++....
and/but, Took, VRTS, CNET, NETS, GPS, MC, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy/put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that is your doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", BLUD, XTO, TSA, EOP, GHM, NEM, BJS, FTS, OCN, CSE, ATW, HOT, LWN, BSX, PGO, NIL, LH, DO, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, SAPE, NTAP, PLCM, SCMM, MACR, MEDQ, NETS, AMSY, CMTO, SNPS, BVEW, INTU, ISSX, DRIV, MRIS, PEP, BMY, TYC, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. Also, by viewing such charts, tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
IOX 3 1/4 up 1 1/4 (sos), TWA 6 1/8 up 1 5/8, MIFGY 12 1/4 up 3 1/4, UMR 1 up 1/4, CDE 6 1/4 up 1 3/8, TXB 4 7/8 up 3/4, GYMB 10 1/8 up 1 3/4, CYM 11 1/2 up 1 7/8, WFT 20 1/8 up 3 1/8, VRC 8 1/8 up 1 1/8, RON 25 3/4 up 3 1/4, JBAK 6 1/2 up 5/8, BDR 6 3/4 up 3/4, RIG 27 3/4 up 3, TDW 22 1/2 up 1 3/4, PETC 8 1/2 up 7/8, CPU 14 1/8 up 3/4, HUG 26 1/4 up 1 1/8, HPC 28 1/8 up 1, NWAC 28 1/2 up 1, PCAR 46 1/4 up 1 3/4 (S), DBRSY 14 5/8, CCLR 4 7/8, GLDR 1 1/2, BCP 7 5/8, GCO 8 (sos), NGX, up/further, since last time here....and AIN, higher....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers who want "real
quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger
potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will
hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can
really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of many reaons why
we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and
increase one's stress, and actually want to spend more time having to watch and process more things, on purpose, is beyond illogic. With my "PSYCLE sm", we trade less, hold positions longer, do not have to watch every minute, and have much less stress.
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, UPX 2 1/4 up 1/2, NETM 2 5/8 up 5/8, ISSI. 3 7/8 up 7/8, GLBL 6 7/8 up 1 3/8, NBTY 6 5/8 up 1, BIR 4 1/2 up 1/2, OFIS 5 7/8, then 6 5/8, PDE 6 3/4 up 5/8, VRC 7 7/8 up 3/4, PGO 14 up 1 1/8, ESV 9 7/8 up 7/8, HAL 30 3/4 up 2, FLC 7 1/8 up 5/8, HSB 37 3/8 up 1 3/8, KRY (sos), NWAC 26, BEZ 20 1/8, WFT 18+, TAROF, MIFGY, ELCO, MATK, MANU, ICI., HBI., IIR, NE, BAANF, ESOL, MATK, CENT, BCP, SEW, CMND, RXSD, SAMC, CTI., TEN, ARG, SAA, MGN, MAH, WKGP, FNL, MCL, ATX/A, COE, PMK, LXR, MSX, BIR, CCC, SUL, BTC, SSC, CCH, MT, AG, and all Metals.... some of these are also in "ms" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the
bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are
your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able
to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and
also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also
eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T.
gratification"
**** New Important Item: in the same manner that we sometimes get "fakeout breakouts" to the upside, with staying in some of our Puttables, we, here, are now likely to see some "fakedown breakdowns" among some of our depressed potential buys/holds, on the long-side....Meaning, we are giving a bit more "leeway" to stocks in, for instance, the Oil Service, and Metals, and such industry groups, when those stocks listed here in section (4), have slight-breaks of their depressed chart patterns....They REMAIN buys-- because, as you know, historically, many "fakedown breakdowns" will "revalidate", and end up rising as expected, given a little more time, anyway, dig ? Obviously, how you deal with these stocks, is totally up to YOU--- as a matter of each individual's personal taste, situational needs, and risk parameters....I have tried to cut, Q, S losses in those that seemed to have farther to drop once they seemingly broke, but have retained those other stocks which did not seem to have much farther to drop, before they revalidated (Tues./Wed.), and became decent shots on the long-side anyway, dig ? Regardless, I am not going to fight the tape....one can almost always get back in wnay....Last, there are/were many such stocks buyable in the Oil Service group, so, if one missed one, or had a Q,S,L in one, one could easily still have caught others, in that same I.G., yes ? A good Lesson to learn, "PSYCLE-wise"....
* and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above) (note new stocks ! ) PAH 6 1/6 up 1 1/4 (S), ESOL, MANU, MATK, HBI., TRI.,, TEN, MKA, VTS, DMN, AOI., MRII., LSN, LFB, SAA, PDE, SEW, HMY, GKI., MSN, GDC, WCCI., ULB, CDE, FLM, LFB, WORK, LXR, PMK, WKGP, MHR, MCL, IMG, SSC, TMA, ADM, TOX, PMK, IMO, CAU, AG, CS, FP, cheap golds, oil services....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near
support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in
section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....
remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so
please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their
thing. **** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) VRSN +9, -5, QWST +4, -3, LCOS -5, +3, LLTC -4, +2, -5 1/2, INTC -4, +4, QLGC +15, -10, SBUX -2 1/2, MKL +5, -5, +5, CCU -2 1/2, CTAS -2, MFNX +2, XMCM +3, TLAB +2 3/4, MSBC -1, PROX -1, EXPD -1, GTSG +2, GNSSF -2, AHAA -2, WABC, GNTX, UFPI., CMND, SSP, MCD +3, ZD +2, TLAB -2, FAM, SYY, SVU -1, BSYS +2, CPQ -1, WPI. -2, BOBE -1, RAD +1, YUM, LIN, IIN, VL -1, CQ -1....remember, on some of these, I am just looking for follow-through, below recent lows....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
"Leisure/Entertainment": (besides, ELY, PIN, PRD, WCCI.), found several other real cheapies in the Mansfield charts, which I share below here.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (DDIM, SAA, UBIX, CMND, MIFGY, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (NGX, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, BGO, RYO, some real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (BS, BIR, RTC, MAH, CYM, CSE, CCC, FNL, HPC, TEN, AG)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (WFT, RIG, PDS, HP, IIR, TDW, UTI., UMR, WEL, VRC, VTS, near their recent lows, Only....also see sec. (3) above, and section just below here)
Biotech/Health/Medical (VTR, IOX, TAROF, COB, MATK, FHCC, CBMI., RXSD, NOV, GNSA, TOX, ULB, CCLR, ALLP, TOX, MPN, MT, TXB, HIV, LH)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (add, PETC, to, REV, NBTY, SRR, COO, PVH, HMY, KFI., MSN, UNO, BLM, GCO, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, MIR, ILX, PAM, HET, CIR, SER)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, EOP, ICH, SMT, WIR, LTC, HOT, LSN, BD, PRT, SMT, WDN, RTC, ARI., NHR, BRE, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CRO, PMC, ENN, FBG, NDE, JPR, MAA, RFS, TMA, IMH, FP, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": FAX, OI., --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically ....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly ....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
add, ADGO, AGU, BCF, BSX, CNU, CP, DRC, ECO, FGI., FTS, FWC, HSB, HXL, IAD, MB, OE, PEN, RON, SDC, SWK, TAM, TK, TRP, TSA, XTO, (re-added more Energy & Oil Svc.) to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, "repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) ACE, ADM, ALN, ALR, AOI., ARG, BAANF, BDR, BEV, BEZ, BGO, BMC, BTC, CBJ, CBRL, CENT, CFS, CLCDF, CNB, CNU, CPU, CQB, CXI., CYB, DETC, DMN, EAR, ELCO, ESV, FHS, GDC, GKI., GLBL, HCM, HDG, HLX, HMY, ILX, IMP, INPR, ISSI., JLG, KNE, LKI., LSN, LUB, LWN, MANU, MKA, MLP, MSX, NAUT, NEM, NETM, NOX, NPSI., NWAC, OLGC, PDE, PDS, PGO, REV, SEW, SOC, SSN, STRX, SUPX, TBI., TDW, TFN, TIE, TMO, TWA, VLO, WKGP, WTT, VSNR, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health"), plus, the Value Line issues: NSANY, OFIS, SEW, MGN)....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....
*** NEW: these are longer, tighter depressed bases, directly from
longer-term, 2 1/2-year, "Mansfield" charts:
health, medical/pharm. (AIMM, ALLP, MRII., NPRO, TAROF, VMRX)
comp./tech./s'ware: (CSRE, GTSI., LSKIC, MIDI., OBJS, KTEC, PNCL)
telecom, etc.: (APAC, MRVC)
leisure/entert.: (SHOW, FAIRE, ONST, WCCI., (all real risky/cheap)
capital goods: (DETC, DSGIF, FAVS, ISCO, JPEI.) (most are bigger companies)
Note, some of these have high $ cash/share, little or no debt, and/or
earnings, for those of you who value those things....others are REAL cheapies/very risky....there are others I am checking, with similar patterns, will let you know....mind you, these are NOT "very-short-term" trades....but some
subscribers wanted some longer, depressed basers, so here they are....just
providing something for every need....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY --- do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the
ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....note Larger/Growing list !!!
(banks/insur.) HLI., TROW, UNM, WABC,
(comp./techs/s'ware) CPQ, MANH, QLGC, TSAI.,
(telecom/commun.) CDRD, LIN, PROX, TLAB,
(medical/health/drug) BMET, BGEN,
(internet) ATHM, DCLK, EBAY, GNET, LCOS, MSPG, NSOL, XMCM,
(retail/food) AZO, BBBY, MCD, RAD, SBUX, SVU, YUM,
**** also watching: add, ADBE, AFL, ALO, ALSI., APCC, ASND, BMY, BVEW, CBRNA, CMCSK, CMTO, CNET, CNMD, COX, CTAS, CTXS, DISH, ELNK, GDT, GE, GNSSF, INTC, INTU, JCOR, LU, LUK, MFNX, NOK/A, ORU, PEP, PLCM, PMCS, QWST, RFMD, SCI., TFSW, TYC, VOD, VRTS, WPO, XEIKY, to, ("repeats") ADPT, AHAA, ALSI., AMP, BBOX, CCRD, CEFT, CSGS, DKWD, DLTR, EFII., ESRX, EXPD, FNM, GAC, GMSTF, GTSG, HAN, IIN, INKT, IMNX, ISSX, JBL, LAF, LLTC, MACR, MANH, MCRL, MEDQ, MKL, MM, MPO, MRIS, MYG, NAB, PLH, PZZA, SAPE, SCH, SCMM, SEEK, SEGU, SLVN, SPW, SSP, UFBI., USTC, USW, VECO, VRSN, WHC, WIND, WPI....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, Extended and at least Semi-parabolic Supermarket, Restaurants, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Consumer, Banks, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, and all Tele.-Commun., in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....the list Grows....but now too late in Utilities ?
VIEW THE CHARTS....see THE 200 DMA....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES
another quick reminder lesson: As I said in section (4) above, watch for some Oil Service stocks to actually form bottoms, ON "new lows"....as taught in my "BDG/EVB" booklet, and herein, a "saucer" formation, by nature, must have a "low" in its middle, yes ? One is just going to have to "guess" and/or take a shot/stab, at, one such stock down near recent lows, and hang on, with a close stop below recent low....step back, draw a shallow "saucer" under , say, the last several months price chart, and you will "see" the S.T. "PSYCLE sm" stage 1 pattern....Conversly, to "never" do Puts, is illogical, and potentially damaging....I thought the whole idea was to learn higher-reliability, exploitable patterns, then act on them, regardless of direction....Boy, Wall Street still has "the 95 %" snookered towards the only the longside, yes ? Good....that means, when correct on Puts, the few acting, will make all the money on declines....
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7 NL, through the 12/28 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4 follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3, ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times: all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact.... period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up "revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ? (plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years".... One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....