1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

for those out there actually still unrealistically believing that I.R.'s and changes thereof, alone, can move market/stock prices obviously and directly (re-read my "Links" booklet !), ask yourself this: 'if' you think so, then, 1) would you assume that, say, if I.R.'s fell to 'zero percent', that would be 'great forever', and solve all problems for stocks, bonds, loans, borrowers, lenders, corporations, consumers, investors, bondholders, yes ? oh yeah ? well, if that would be so, then, how come, in, say, Japan, where I.R.'s have been down at 1 or 2 % for YEARS, their stock market still got whacked last decade ? and, 2) how come the Fed move marked the beginning of a S.T. expected-by-me correction (not a permanent rise) in tons of stocks ? once again, Fed rate moves are usually the LAST to act, and are almost NEVER a precursor of D.A.F.P.P.V. - 'the marketplace' moves AHEAD of the Fed....I am too tired to explain this, but 'the 95%' are re-actors, and we are anticipators ....more on this some day....

and now, yesterday, I hear new musings that "perhaps the economy is not as weak as 'the 95%' think/thought", and/or that there might be a "V" rebound in stocks or the economy, etc. (when, in fact, as you know, there has already BEEN a "V" rise in tons of stocks, yes ? re-read my Booklets)....and, as expected, many stocks ran into a S.T. wall, the day the Fed lowered rates again....and, do not ignore the new bunch of Puttables I added below in section (3) and (7)....but also, Buy our depresseds into pullbacks that hold in bases forming/formed.... exploit both directions simultaneously....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) of interest, the 30-yr. T-bond has made its yearly high in January, in 8 of the last 12 years, as I also expected recently, yes ? and, even after a bounce, as the 'experts' just recently began to love it (where were they much lower ?), the Bond remains BELOW my/that 'top', yes ? as 'the 95 %' really over-pitch bullishly, the Bond, get it ? and, with, uh, $ 38 billion+ in new Treasury paper due out next week, increasing supply a little, dig ? perfect S.T. more-toppy than bottomy action....are you learning the pattern ? ....2) our extended Retail stocks must weaken soon or else ....now, some may 'fobo', as others have, but watching closely, conservative.... but others remain puttable with stops.... 3) well, as usual, I will have been the first/only to give out Linux stocks right from lows, for nice quick pops.... 3) and once again, I am proud of being the first/only to give out several depressed Foreign stocks at recent lows....wwe never ignore any I.G., when it fits the pattern, right ? as with the "Regional Bank" stocks, a while ago, ay ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) of course, CNBC waited (Tom Costello) to mention the Linux conference, until noon Wed. - only after stocks up +50 % quicly already, dig ? the pattern rarely changes.... 2) this one was beautiful: Wed., noon, Pisani actually said, "with the Fed now lowering rates twice, doesn't this open the door to a new bull market ?" - gee, doesn't get much better than that for a potential contrary sentiment indicator, ay ? ....3) Pisani finally mentioned KM at 9 1/2, as 'the best performing Retail stock recently', Thu. 8:30 - asking, "why is it up ?" he never changes, ay ? gee, I gave KM out herein first, around 5, yes ? as a pot. takeover, recall....we shall see....of interest, Thu., they reported some Insider selling after recent rise, as 'the 95%' only now begin to buy, dig ? and you know how Pisani's comments have done....

4) Christine Callies, MER, on CNBC, Thu. 8:57, actually stunningly IN-correctly bullishly exclaimed (note emotional, dig ?), "there's no such thing as a bearish Fed rate cut"....so, we watched for more pullbacks among already-up stocks, yes ? we add this to the TONS of proof her statements have been WRONG, historically, a lot more often that she did not alert viewers to....and she gets paid for that ? ....5) PIsani, Thu. 9 am, actually exclaimed, "that's an amazing move up by LEH stock...", when, in fact, it is only up slightly from previous high, falling big in the middle, yes ? ....6) then, Pisani, highlighted a Coal stock only I gave out herein at last years lows, ACI, as usual, only after biug rise, see it ? NO one else liked 'coal' at lows, but me....the pattern rarely changes....Did you know that Coal still accounts for - get this - 55 % of ALL "Util. Power" nationwide....I also gave you PVA and HNP herein in low bases, yes ? but missed CNX, see its base a while ago ? amazing, isn't it....nope.

7) in 2/4 L.A.T., gotta give props to Tom Petruno for mentioning, "what people have SAID they would do recently, has not tranlated into the actual spending slowdown expected, yet"....and that the US economy actually continued to 'create 260,000 new jobs in Jan. '01", shows once again, how ridiculous it is to try to predict stocks or rates based on fickle and contradictory economic numbers ....and, as I said, NO 'tax cut' will help us, as that takes too long to effect things enuf....last, he mentioned at the end, how a few analysts say, that there is even potential for Fed rate INcreases if things do not slow as much as planned....see how dumb all this 'pontificating' is ? last, just FYI, 'consumer credit' is now over $ 1.5 trillion, up from $ 800 billion in 1990.... the NYSE is worth about $ 13 trillion, and U.S. GDP is around $ 30-40 trillion....

8) L.A.T. 1/31, "Mutual funds saw inflows, despite woes", is contradictory and misleading, as usual, but included a chart of "bond fund $ inflows", which showed $ has BEEN flat in bond fund values, and as I reported to you herein, only recently have 'the masses' begun to get bullish on bonds - high, and late, etc. did you know there are now about 8,200 mutual funds ? more than there are individual liquid stocks....amazing, but that has been true for years already.... the largest 10 funds families got larger in 2000, mostly due to pension plans....but, overall, 55 % of the top 600 funds groups had net $ OUT-flows in 2000....and, again, they all hated Bond funds right at their lows late last year....last, importantly, while $ inflows for stock funds was a huge new high of $ 309 Billion in 2000, up from $ 190 billion in 1999, and only, say, $ 20 billion in 1990, 2/3 pof that $ went into funds at the top....get it ?

9) CNBC's Tom Costello, Mon. 11 am, again misled greatly, saying, "EXDS and HLIT are getting absolutely taken apart here....", when, in fact, they already fell hugely months ago, yes ? and, neither is at recent lows....unbelieveably ignorant/wrong of him - again....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) in perfect "PSYCLE" behavior, a MSFT exec., during the LNUX convention, 1/31, said that "Linux is doomed"....well, duh....of course he'd say that....he even says one 'reason' is "their companies' vastly depressed stock prices" - as if he knew anything about stock pattern technicals....of further interest, MSFT invested $ 135 mm into Corel's Linux approach last October....huh ? and IBM announced it will spend about $ 1 billion on LNUX-based stuff in 2001....and, gosh, I wonder how much MSFT stock he sold at 120, before his supposed "bulletproof stock' fell quickly to 40, ay ? next....

2) this item is mine-created: I talked with a CPA here who was lamenting so many of his clients ('lucky yuppies') who had greedily and unappreciatively exercised cheap-price stock options at their companies in Y2K, then, spent and/or borrowed and/or bought other/more stage-4 Tech. stocks with the proceeds, or not sold their stocks as they parabolic-ed and fell big-time, without their protecting their gains/positions, so now, this April 2001, they actually will OWE $ in taxes, but now have a lot LESS cash to pay them, get it ? I laugh....so, once again, they learn nothing....worse this nice-guy CPA refuses to let me help educate him nor his clients for the next time, as usual....I also lose, and get no respect, and millions of people I could still help (could have helped) lose, nationwide ....the pattern rarely changes....

3) CNBC reported Thu. that the 'NAPM index' fell further last month, to the lowest level in over 100 months, since 3/91, further proving my economic yuckiness prediction....I called the 'econ. & R.E. top' in similarly in late 1990, recall ....get it ? ....4) in yet another example of 'sell into/after strength on the news/event', note AOL which they all hated near 30 recently (after loving at ridiculously high), topped S.T. the day of the merger with TWX, around 57, in a similar pattern to tons of Techs recently which only I mentioned/presaged herein for you, yes ? ....5) on CNBC, Thu. 11;25, MU said, "prices for DRAM's have been awful for 2 months now, and will cont. to be so..." , which is interesting, as I was first/only to give it out herein from $ 30. base, rose into 'bad news/financials' to hit $ 45. recently, yes ? proving yet again, NO "links' between stock, and fundamentals.....'nuff said....

6) Mon., CNBC reported that 'semiconductor chip sales' have been slowing "since last Aug. 2000" - interesting, since I heard NO one else get bearish on those stocks back then - nor in Sep. or Oct. - it was only in Dec. that we heard mass bearishness - right near the lows -dig ? the pattern rarely changes....watch the stocks, more than the fundamentals.... 7) that said, note I was, as usual, the first/only to give the 'mutual fund co." stock as Puttable herein at recent top, and, Mon., Janus funds, ann. layoffs - citing slow business - real surprising.... 8) Ben Franklin said, "The most reliable predictor of future human behavior is past human behavior."

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) that guy on CNBC, Tue., who wrote "10 stocks that may change the world", actually had a few on MY basing list, so kudos to him: his list: CRA, WEBX, DMRC, ARBA, DCNT, GBLX, AVNX, INKT, INSP, MLNM, CPTH, of which, WEBX, DMRC, INSP, ARBA, INKT, have been on my list near recent lows, yes ? neat.... 2) exactly as I was first/only to presage: now, only after pop from 8+ to 15-, Wed., 3 big b-firms shanged their 'sell' opinion to 'buy' on PCG>...the pattern rarely changes....and contrarily/similarly, 3 big b-firms finally come out with 'strong buy' rating on our AAI - again, only after rise from 4, to 8+ already, dig ? ....and, last, note several firms lowering ratings on CCRT - again, only after hugedrop....are you learning the pattern ?

3) my disappointment grows in MSDW's Phil Roth, a VG technician years ago when I was proud to have helped him/known him at EFH occasionally, as he did nothing Thu. but rehash what has already happened - depresseds having nice reflex pops off tax-selling lows, and 'defensive' issues relatively weaker....said NOTHING of value, what a shame....he said, 'much basebuiding needs to come ahead before we get a sustained bull market", when, in fact, many bases already occured, and many of our stocks are already up +50 to 100%, yes ? shows the further folly of 'labelling', re-read my Booklet....but we do agree on there being plenty of S.T. resistance here for many popped stocks....and he still uses the I.G>R. concept I helped him with in the 1980's, so best wishes tohim, but.... 5) mgr. of the Calamos Growth Fund, who is actually DOWN in Jan. so far, after mediocre 2000 performance (how does ANYONE lose $ in Jan. this year so far ? don't get me started), on CNBC, Thu., 9:28, loves JNPR, "because it is good relative value to CSCO, and we also love LAB up here...." yadda, yadda....why do they even have guys like this ON, vs. me ? I can certainly understand having a rough Y2K, but a monkey throwing darts makes money every Dec./Jan. - unless buying extended stocks late....

6) well, thank goodness, CMGI. sold its "Raging Bull' website to Terra Lycos for a reportedly 'bargain price' (still way overpriced compared to me, but I digress), as interest in stock-chat on the web wanes, also predicted by me early in Y2K herein....a Silicon Investor guy said, "they only tell about their winners, but how about all their losses ?", to which I have said for decades, yup....and, from the WSJ, evidently, in march 2000 at the activity peak, users spent about 100 min. a mo. on Silicon Investor, 90 min. a mo. on Raging Bull, 35 min. at YHOO, and 30 min. at Motley Fool sites....but, recently, that time spent has fallen by -25 to -50 %....and Raging Bull's time-spent had fallen so low, Nielsen cut off its measuring of that site, dig ? on hindsight, probably marked a .T. bottom in those stocks, Dec. '00, as I figured, sentiment-wise....

7) CNBC had technician Mike Krauss of JPM, on, Thu. 12:25, saying 'the NASDAQ momentum is the most oversold in YEARS, and is REAL close to a buy signal once gets over 3,050 NASDAQ index (he's late, notice, and I was in from Dec. lows, but I digress), and he sees target of around 3,400 ahead in 2001....as long as we hold 2,650 , we're OK...." P.S., as usual, we pulled back immediately, get it ? He showed a beautiful L.T. chart of T-bond yields, a falling channel/wedge (re-read my booklet on that formation), saying, as only I have, that IR's have ALREADY fallen from 9 % to 6 %, and "we are closer to a bottom in IR's, after one more rally probably, not much more upside in the bond...." Well, kudos - finally, an intelligent guy interviewed on CNBC....

8) in a recent Multex site interview, MSDW's Lew Smith, head technician, actually said, "the 2 main things I consider to predict future prices, are, a) the current price trend, and, b) its RS vs. ind. or mkt. indexes, which is interesting, since, as you have been taught, a 'base' is a 'sideways' trend, and a rolling top has highest RS, yes ? amazing.... 9) a new ruling now requires all Mutual Funds to disclose 'after-tax' returns, some at 40 % rates taxes, which I see as a positive - esp. since, as I report herein every Fall, they declare cap. gains payouts, even as some have actual losses, etc.

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) after listening to inane callers-in (don't get me started about what that/this says about the nature of people out there) to sports radio shows, I now add callers-in to CNBC, especially those saying, 'great show' when they then ask about a stock they rarely make money in, and to most all guests answering in platitudes, and insecure, ignorant phrases, teaching viewers nothing ever.... 2) L.A.T., thru AP, 1/28, headline, "College Athletes lift more beer....outconsuming other students at Harvard....binge drinking....campaigns to cull activity have no effect" - yup, Human nature, exactly as my "PSYCLE sm" teaches....that's just the way it is.... and even among Women, at least 40 % of Harvard students 'binge drink'.... yikes....ahhhh, to be age 18-22 again.... 3) headline, L.A.T. 1/28, "big disconnect in calling-card scams" is exactly as I predicted, and why I have never used one (nor have I ever bought a lottery ticket, had coffee or a cigarette nor cocaine, nor do much of anything 'the 95 %' do or think, the way they do them, right ?)....one has no way to onitor or know how much time has indeed been alloted to any calling cards, ay ? what potential for rip-off, no controls, etc. caveat emptor....I never did understand the attraction of these....what do YOU think ?

4) and only now, am I finally hearing, "well, we assume that Calif. elec. rates will have to rise, to help alleviate the problem" - great call Einsteins ....don't get me started....meanwhile, I can only imagine the political BS wrangling occuring in the Calif. legislature....last, evidently Calif. has run Enron Cp. out of the state - one co. which could actually help the situation .... and, Thu., they refused to back an initial huge plan/law, 'because rates would rise for consumers" - well, duh, dummies....amazingly inept by California....do I hate politics, or what ? and don't get me started on the Ashcoft or Clinton nastiness lately.... 5) Thu., the Explorer channel actually excitedly pitched covering a Dog show....be still my heart....I guess they are running out of exciting stuff, ay ? reminds me of when ESPN covered marble tournaments, etc.

6) let me again go on record, being against the attempt to merge AMR and TWA, which would ruin what is left of any competition, and lead to even worse service, higher prices to us....great Govt./system we have, ay ? yet/and, DAL talking with NWA, and Continental looking for another takeover target....amazingly bad for us.... 7) 2/4 L.A.T., from AP, headline, "Luxury goods market (and buyers) depressed - impulse buying falls off - belt tightening - disappointming - furs and rolls royces, seem as investments, still selling well"....more proof, ay ? Stressing that this well-to-do sector is not falling apart, mentioned major jewelry places, upscale dept. stores, lower sales....I would say, guess allthose 'lucky yuppies' wish they had something to hedge/protect their parabolic stock price rises, yes ? I wonder how many borrowed their 'paper equity', as previously suggested herein....they wrote, "a recent study estimated that 15 % of adults are able or willing to buy luxury name-brand products now, down from 50 % a year ago"....I rest my case....one wealthy lady said, "I see my friends who lost so much money in stocks, and I feel terrible" - as she overspent herself, at Bentley cars, and booked a lavish vacation....

8) L.A.T. front-page 2/4, "Companies' use of diesel generators is atrracting heat", is ridiculous, as the 'eco-frauds' continue to ruin many things with their 'always finding something to supposedly stop, environmentally - while being wrong often, and lining their(and their lawyers') pockets with cash along the way' (don't get me started)....they will get to local govts. and find ways to punsih corporations for using such machines - increasing costs further as the worst time....do these people have any brains or care for others ? ....9) again, the proposed 'tax cut' is NOT the best idea here - its effects will accrue mostly to the wealthy, will not kick in for too long a time, and we need help for middle-class only, and right this minute....great politians we have, ay ? recall, 'public spending' continued to rise after the 'bad' 1981 tax cuts, which helped usher in a recession back then, as well, yes ? ....and a Democrat interviewed said, "the budget surplus may not be as large as projected because of pent-up demand for spending on education, defense, health, and other programs".... Yup.

10) recent L.A.T. article correctly proved how 'way more expensive and not as helpful as their pushers are telling us', electric vehicles are nor will be.... where do people think the electruiicity will come from to charge those jkinds of vehicles ? yup....and, think of the infrastructure needed to make such stations, and the pollution gerenated there, get it ? it is estimated that the 'true cost' of such MPG in elec. cars is 3 to 5 times greater than iuts proponents are misleading us all with....ain't gonna fly....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....