1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

of new s.t.-only interest, by me, on Mon. 1/31, i saw enuf bullishness, MACD crossing above zero-line in uptrend-after-pb's, to warrant less s.t. bearishness, s.t. only, dig ?,

is this true ? TobinS/ChangeW just wrote, that, as I reported, in 12/04, the AAII showed 16 % bears, 60 % bullish....but they now wrote, "Mon. 1/31, they were 60 % bearish and only 16 % bullish"....huh ?, no way....but U C how TDR doomers act when they are wrong, dig ? and that 'similar ratio came from recent UBS survey of their clients"....yeah, right....anyway, he remains bullsih even from 2004 highs....oh, and TS/CW specifically is countering the "china slowdown coming' people by saying that that is hooey....we shall see....

read new study of 'the decennial' yearly stks performance item widely known, via Harry Dent....and he continues to be convinced that perf. in years ending in '5' have, and will cont. to outperform any other numbered year....he did show some decent proof going back to the year 1900....and/but, he also got real bullish from here, saying, ''years from ending-in-5, to ending-in-9, have been the best periods", so he is bullish through 20089, dig ?, we shall see....he who, as I have chronicled herein as overrated, wrote, "the roaring 2000's" book - way earlier than the rise to y2K top, and he also failed to even remotely predict the after-2000 crash in any stocks, dig ?, so take his output for what you will, considering that....

ditto with the supposed "January effect", as i have pointed oiut herein over the decades, another recent study showing it's supposed existence/worth also vastly overrated in fact in recent-past years, dig ?, I say, too many mitigating variables in that non-indicator....of little DAFPPV....

and as if that wasnt enuf, just read new back-to-1991 study via Bernie Scheaffer, showing, except for obvious vast-s.t.-outperformnce only in 1999 and 2000, "tech. stks.' have NOT 'outperformed blue-chips, hmmmmm....there has actually been very little variance between the COMPX and the SPX, since 1991, dig ?, plus, he showed a schart of RS, NAZ vs. SPX even since 1984, and, techs had an outperformance-top in 1983, then SPX did better till 1991, then techs better till only 1996, and SPX a little better since 1996, get it ? of course, he only 'found this out' late, (dgms), and concludes, "too many analysts, etc., have assigned 'excess alpha values' to tech. stks for a long time, incorrectly, which I have always said, may account for tMF's, analysts, etc., underperformance, esp. in ttech. stks., all along, hmmmmm....hence, I say, my Psycle/IGR concept is a key help to master....

and, late, as usual, I read that, during the last 3 mos. of '04, Insiders SOILD a stunning 37x more than they bt. stks., selling $ 13. B , vs. buying just $ 350 mm, hmmmmm....gee, wish, for once, people wwb told that in a timely fashion, but, then, as u know, thats how my PSYCLE sm works....oh, and, during the yr. 2004, Insiders sold $ 41 B., vs. selling $ 25 B. in all of '03....and, the ratio of sells-vs.-buys Insiders, was 28-to-1 in 2004, the higest ratio supposedly, since 1990, when they started tracking such stuff....

and, already the P/C ratio has/had fallen enuf to warrant a bit less bearishness, and we are again in medias-res, but, the 'Bonds P/C ratio' has become a bit bullish, i.e., higher bonds, lower yld), s.t. anyway....but, as usual, this lagging indicator (re-read my Booklets) only went bullish, after, say, the TLT had already risen from 80+ to 90+, so probably too late now, dig ?

So, as U have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just taking advantage of the best individual stocks and in rotating industry groups, chart-pattern-technically and sentiment-wise contrarily, mostly on the long side, but never eschewing the put-side, with preset stops and proper diversification - while ignoring or going opposite 95 % of all news, fundamentals, media messages, opinions, indexes/averages comments, from nearly everyone other than me, etc.
By just getting my output herein, alone, at least, U do much better, and save time, by not even having to "seek and process" the massive and ridiculous, often-misleading and/or incorrect, useless-as-D.A.F.P.P. info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for U, B4 they even begin, yes ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) am noticing 'comp. storage' stocks up, as I figured, having given them out in very depr. bases a while ago herein 4 U.... 2) and, as I have suggested, the TYX yield had now broken down s.t., to 4.351 %, (prev. low yld. 4.06 % June '03), and the TNX yld dn to 4.013 %, dig ?, as the March t-bond (QSL) bo completely, to 116.5 !, unexpected by me, unusual, hmmmm....and, TDR wrote, ''everyone everywhere is planning on IR's to rise, for the forseeable future, therefore, they must be faded" (i.e., go long the bonds up here, by him)....I say, yeah, there is probably enuf negative sentiment in Bonds to balance the resistance, and force bonds higher still ?, eh, i would not go bullish up here....

3) note drop again in cash Gold to 410+, hah.... 4) saw 25-yr. chart cash Coffee via FutureSource NL, bullish on Coffee finally - up here from 0.50 to 1.10....as usual, dig ?, where were they when I told you herein, in 2002 at 0.50, as i did at 0.50 in 1992-93, in Coffee's v.l.t. base I have shown you multiple times over the decades ?, dgms....C the pattern ?, it rarely changes, ay ?, next.... 5) and as expected your idiot Fed Greenspan raised rates for the 6th straight time, Prime to 5.5 % Fed Funds up to 2.5 % now....so we are, at worst, halfway there to max, I said herein back in 2002-2003 I.R. lows, yes ?....6) note big drop in Ebay, on big profits gain (dgms, read below), hah...gee, who was the 1st/only topredict that ?, ME !, as usual....next.... 7) unexpected-by-me rise in Energy stks last week, weird....

8) anyway, the 'yield spread between the 2-yr. and 10-yr. bond', is down to its lowest, 0.80 %, since 2001, and is flattening the yield curve....and the yld. diff. bet. the 10-yr. and 30-yr. bond down to 0.40 % another real low level !, meaning, as i have taught for decades in such instances, either l.t. rates must rise, or, s.t. rates must fall !, period....U know we don't 'link' econ. and stuff, but, if your Fed wants to avoid a recession, it has GOT to effect one of those 2 things - of course, lowering s.t. rates wb the smart thing 2 do, and would preserve RE prices - but Greenspan is such a negative guy....well, we shall see.... 9) and while I am NOT Psycle-bullish-pattern on them, only-recently-hated-Drug-stocks, like, PFE, MRK, etc., became s.t. pop candidates, sentiment-wise recently, just fyi.... 10) the DXY now, to me, kinda loos even higher, to maybe 88-89 ?, neat, you heard it here 1st, as usual, have I been good with the Dollar, over the decades, or what....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) gee, the 95 % ignorantly associated 'less bearish, more bullish' implications to the higher-then-the-idiot-experts-expected turnout in Iraq election, yes ?, and, of course, in perfect one-day "PSYCLE sm" action, crude oil ROSE from 46 to 48, get it ?, next.... 2) wow just read a probably useful article via TDR, that being, more and more vidence that countries are making deals behind OPEC's back, i.e., inferring 'the beginning of the end of OPEC's super-status'....and, as I specifically mentioned that when Crude was a l.t. buy herein around $ 10. a few years ago, recall, sure, why should not Venezuela contract directly with say China for stuff ?, no biggie...is a positive thing worldwide, actually, imho....as with NATO and the UN, big-time communism, OPEC is becoming a relic, dig ? all in the name of economic realities....

3) read another in a growing list of "China's growth is slowing down'' articles, but, B. Schaeffer actually wrote, "every previous time such articles have appreared, steel, coal, energy stocks have rallied, not fallen, and we expect this time to be no different" - oh, yeah ?, Mr. B.S., I say, begin to fade those I.G.'s, do NOT begin to buy them way up here - get it ? ....4) recent "is Inflation back, or not ?" missive, MONEY, Yardeni says "no...inflation will remain near 2 % for years to come, because of worldwide production competitive pressures, and energy-commods-h.c. costs have been rising, but can those costs be passed onto consumers ?" - which, of course, makes no sense, since he already failed to acknowledge, imho, the big Inflation IN those items ! (dgms), while, Tom McManus, says, ''yes, inflation, companies will have to keep raising their prices, and will hurt companies' profits, and hence is bearish on stocks and bonds, as companies disappoint more and more stockholders with lower profits"....hmmm, clear enuf for ya ?, next....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) Van Tharp correctly pointed oiut more proof of my PSYCLE sm concepts: last week, the same day, DAL reported a record Q./yrly loss for any airline co. ever - and it's stock barely fell....while Ebay reported a huge rise in profits - and its stock fell (as i also predicted specifically, herein, dig ?, you're welcome)....no 'automatic 'links' !, re-read my Booklets....learn the/my patterns.... 2) omigod, did he really just say this ?, Greenspan-the-doomer-late-overrateactor, evidently, said, as he raised rates for the 6th time "dgms), "rising IR's have been advertised for so long now, that anyone not already hedged by now is obviously desirious of losing money".... this is so inappropriate and nasty, beyond belief, but really was said last week....i am stunned at his insolence....not cool, man....

3) just saw yet more proof of the DAFPPV of my "PSYCLE sm", as recent front-page LAT headline, "drilling spending dips even as profits gush", showing chart of 'avg. # drills operating worldwide', way up till 1981 of course, then, down to 1991, then level, since (like a saucer base since 1991, dig ?), exclaiming, "oil producers are holding back on drilling and exploration , expenses, at a sluggish pace"....of course, this begs the ques., WHY ????, also, with their 'stock prices' up (re-read my Booklets, stk. px., and fundamenta;s, are mutually exclusive often, right ?), why do leaders of the huge Energy companies not know what is upcoming in their industry ?, dgms.... 4) also note continued recent drop in SINA, the previously-paraboilc China telecom stk., I have correctly predicted a few times herein 4 U.....only now, after big drop, do analysts worry about its 'growth slowing', could also be a harbinger for "China's growth slowing' ?, we shall C, as i predicted....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) Sjuggerud, again, formally warned everyone to sell all Junk/H.Y. Bonds now....yet, simultaneously, contrarily, he said, recall, that 'the experts all expecting IR's to rise in 2005, will be incorrect, and IR's should fall, instead", remember ?, well, how can (a) and (b) both occur ?, they would seem to be the opposites of each other, yes ? so, once again we see a vsatly overrated but heavily-backed NL group, predicting Both directions, so in the future they can 'say'; they were correct....dgms....jeez....next.... 2) and surprisingly, EWT guys are bullish on Oils and Gold....up here....got me....

3) latest crapola Unsolicited, from (dgms) Lou Dobbs, email headline, "all mkt. forecasts are nonsense !" - yeah, guy, and so are yours !, amazing, huh.... next.... 4) oh, and 3 huge b-firms finally actually upgraded AMZN as $ 45. to buys - way up here, late, high, as usual, dig ?, as the pattern rarely changes....R U learning it ? ....5) and read via TRA NL, that Peter Boric is becoming bearish on 'small caps vs. big-caps', the ratio of which has/had risen, from 0.35 to 0.55, since 1999....and I am inclined to agree with him, one of the few decent money mgrs. over the years....too late to begin to love the Russell 2000 vs. the SPX.... (of course, that does not preclude liking the depr. cheapies I recommend herein, dig ?, i dislike the extended techs alrteady way up, dig ?).... < 6) and still becoming more disappointed with McMillan option technical timing output, he's real confused lately, unclear, becoming, unfortunately, as the 95 % normally do after fame, dig ?, next....

7) MartinDenholm counters the 'sell junk bonds' tomes I have been reading, saying, 'junk yields 6.5 % while t-bonds yield only 4.5 %'....but I say, too lat to begin to buy either, which makes it all so difficut lately, dig ? ....8) I was amazed to get latest Unsolicited emial crap from Sjuggerud, recommending RFID stks., as if their story is a new one....uh, gee, guy, arent U a little late ?, next.... 9) a new article from kellogg & Crane, whose commod. l.t. past T.R. were not told, hinted at "The UK selling some of their Gold reserves, and the last time they did this, in 1997, gold frll from 390 to 260, and T-bonds fell as well"....hmmmm....

e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) in perfect, predictable, PSYCLE sm behavior, the RE dudes are now changing the definition of 'affordable', to keep the illusion of 'RE still rising forever' (sic, B.S., dig ?), to unsuspecting and not-knowledgeable-about-cycles readers, what a shame....So. Calif. RE people are still in denial, as this whole thing mirrors the AIDS and other incorrectly-too-feared items over the years.... 2) permabear-but-maybe-correct-this-time-as-I-also-suggested TDR, NL, just wrote, "in Fla. and NY, we R seeing ridiculous continuing expectations that RE will rise forever similar rate, here in Fla./NY, etc.", yup....he also pointed out, as I have meany times herein, between 1987 and 1995, RE in those areas FELL -45 % or so, and did not re-achieve the 1987 levels again till the yr. 2000....get it ?, welcome to So. Calif., possibly, ahead, I say, as U know....

3) and read another mention that, actually, literally, 'buying the country of Iraq', acre for acre, wb be way more humane, and cheaper, than the way your govt. has been trying to do, dig Z?, I read this again recently, from the same author who suggested that premise during Vietnam war - get it ?, interesting, huh....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....