1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
This is important: this past weekend's chartbook, yielded the most "S.T.
toppy chart stocks" I have seen since late July last year--- get it ? Hope
so....It's all i could do to limit the amount of new potential Puttables
herein....
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable,
staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm"
patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that
best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR
educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most
Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and
I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and
(5). Very clear sections. You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1)
note how the DJ Utilities index, stopped its predicted S.T. decline, around 290., as I told you it would, on the very day "the 95 %" "began to notice" its decline, dig ? ....2) in a recent item here I was specifically bullish S.T. on cash Silver, saying it looked much better than cash Gold....well, it rose from 5.10 to 5.65 so far....neat.... 3) I hope you can "see" how some Internet stocks given, are forming clearer "series of lower recent tops" on their chart patterns....
b) 1) as to the T-Bond: the key yield/price level to watch for, is whether
or not the long bond yield gets over 5.42 %, the Nov. 1998 high yield of the
saucer formed since last Fall....above 5.42 %, and/or below 124+ on the contract
itself, would break the Bond, just FYI....on Fri. 5th, I think it closed at 5.34 % ....2) Fri. 5th, 8:30 am, actually had a decent-timing report by cnbc's Alan Chernov, saying that some money mgrs. he spoke with, spoke of a "shift" (rotation, get it ?), out of extended Techs, and into the depressed basic industries, like Copper, Steel, Alum, Forest, Chem., Cap. Goods, Farm, Energy, etc. stocks....they must be also getting my NL....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) A.P.,
2/4, L.A. Times: "Smallest Stocks Showing Gains": the avg. micro-cap MF rose +3.8
% in January according to Lipper....Duh....exactly as I predicted, with the tax-selling bounces we have experienced....Micro-caps are smaller companies than those in the Russell 2000 index....The avg. micro-cap MF has under $ 50- 100 MM in assets.... and about 50 % of all micro-cap stocks are not covered by Wall St. analysts.... 2) Thu. 4th, CNBC had pres. of "INTU" on, glowing with "it will never go down"-type comments--- it has been on my Put list for a while as you know--- so, added its Puts, dig ? ....3) Fri., C.T. Unterburg, lowered our "CDRD", from a
"strong buy" to just a "buy"....hmmmm....Let's see, to them, it was a strong buy at 38, but not a Put, as I gave you herein....then, at 24, it still remains a buy ? Do they HAVE a technical analyst there at that B-firm ? next.... 4) Fri. 5th, re: a rumor that NBC might buy 25 % of Lycos....way up here ? Where were they when it was much lower ? oy....also, L.A. Times, Sat. 6th, item titled, "Lycos stock soars amid talk of stake sale"....Lycos stock was up 7 1/2, to 137., or only 5.7 %....hardly "soaring", no ? More late, incorrect Media sensationalizing....
5) as an old successful "PSYCLE sm" put, then a successful EVB for us, last
year, "SPLN", recently topped S.T. around $ 45-50....anyway, it was finally mentioned as a 'comer' by cnbc's O'Brien/Bauman, now, after it is already way up in stage 4, see it ? Gosh....where were they at $ 9-10, with us ? a little late, yes ? but, normal, for late, useless Media coverage, yes ? They all hated SPLN around 10. last year, saying their business concept would not even survive, remember ? ....6) our "CENT" got mentioned by Bauman/O'Brien on CNBC, Fri. aft., but I had already given it to you near recent lows, herein, BEFORE any news came out, yes ? BTW, the co. announced a loss for its last Q....but the stock rose, as I predicted....As I have taught you umpteen times, they are often two different things, right ? ....7) and, our "APCC" announced higher eps, beating estimates, yet its stock fell, due to its CHART pattern, see it ? cool.... 8) and, remember last week, when I mentioned here, how analysts loved De Vry, but we just missed its puts ? well, it is down now....the pattern never changes....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) Fri. 5th, the McLellan Summation Index DID indeed fall below its zero line....NO big market rise has ever begun after such an occurance, since 1960 or so.... 2) I am beginning to hear that ridiculous "the economy is strong--- maybe too strong" crap from all over the place....possibly a catalyst for higher I.R.'s, S.T., as I predicted anyway.... Gee, first, they worry about "Asian/Brazil stuff" hurting our "growth", and now, some worry about 'too much growth' here....It's all pretty-much BS, and not of "D.A.F.P.P.V." related to stock price moves, yes ? Please re-read my "Scenarios" booklet, about why "reasons" and/or asking "why" never helps....As I taught you to watch for, there are always "cover stories" to supposedly "explain after the fact" all occurances in the markets....what is important are the PATTERNS and YOUR actions--- NOT any possible "reasons why".... 3) Sat. 6th, Motley Fools (well named, BTW, as they are WAY overrated, but massively $ backed from the start, by AOL and others), highlighted one of our Puttables, "SBUX" as a super-good company "balance sheet-wise"....calling their Fundamental analysis "cool beans" and "promising" (always with a forced pun, but rarely with truly valuable teaching items, but I digress), we'll go opposite the Fools on this one.. ..lets' see who ends up being right, and who taught others the most valuable lessons....
e) another top sign ? Doonesbury, the national cartoon, last week, had two strips, specifically sarcastic about daytrading and internet IPO's....get it ?
f) as if you didn't know already, our wonderful Govt.'s Feb. 1996 "Telecom"
Law, supposed to enhance competition and lower prices to consumers, has had the
opposite effect....what a shock....Since enactment, cable prices have actually jumped 21 % and long-distance rates are up 10 %....Gee, I wonder why....maybe megamergers, decreasing the number of companies in these industries, and therefore, fewer consumer choices ? coupled with the need to service the debt used to create those takeovers ? and, of course, that the Govt. rarely works well with anything....Gee, who could have seen that coming ? (sic) It's way past hoping for free markets all-around, though ours IS the best attempt, ever tried.
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
previous short sale", where no puts options existed....
and longs, PDE, DMN, TMO, TRI., and puts, CSGS, BSYS, for VQ, very small losses, of little or no overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio.
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns
are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying
those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less
risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right
? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the %
Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short
holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these have always been listed, from
biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(Note: Read again, carefully, for new, "re-added" repeats !!!) ADM @ 15+,
ALLP @ 3.06, AZC @ 9/16, BAANF @ 9++, BGO @ 3/4, BIR @ 4 1/8, CAU @ 0.31,
CBMI. @ 2 3/4, CCC @ 6.06, CCH @ 3/16, CFK @ 1 11/16, CSRE @ 3 1/2, CXI. @ 5/16,
CYM @ 9++, EAR @ 5/8, ECO @ 1 11/16, FHS @ 9.06, FLC @ 6++, FLM @ 9-, GKI. @ 2 7/8, HP @ 17, HUG @ 25.06, IIR @ 3 1/2, IMG @ 5 3/4, INPR @ 5, ISCO @ 1 1/8, LSN @ 3 13/16, MKA @ 8+, MLP @ 9+, NGX @ 1/2, NOI. @ 10., PAM @ 3 5/8, PAR @ 7 1/8, PDS @ 10+, PKD @ 3.06, PMK @ 23, SAA @ 0.75, SSC @ 11/16, TOX @ 3/16, UPX @ 1 13/16,
UTI. @ 6 13/16, VGZ @ 3/16, VTS @ 11++, WCCI. @ 11/16, WFT @ 17+, WS @ 1 13/16
....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein, countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, MRVC, SUPX, DDIM, FAX, MSX, TRP, XTO,
CP, --- Off the pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically
"bt.".
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips --- either, for straight
Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my
valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still
having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) AIG @ 104, ALO @ 34++, AMCC @ 41+, AMFM @ 59, ATR @ 28++, CCRD @ 55, GLW @ 49-, GMSTF @ 66+, INTU @ 92+, KLAC @ 58, LAMR @ 41-, LRCX @ 38-, MEDI. @ 53+, MHP @ 113, MM @ 37, RNWK @ 71+, SCMM @ 79, TY @ 29-, TYC @ 77+, WCII. @ 43+....
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) AHAA @ 39+, AZO @ 34, BEL @ 60-, BSYS
@ 54, CBRNA @ 59+, CCU @ 64, CEFT @ 40+, CMCSK @ 67+, CNMD @ 33-, ELNK @ 80-, ETEC @ 55-, GNSSF @ 35, GPSI. @ 48, GTSG @ 66, JBL @ 73, LLTC @ 102, MCD @ 80+, MPO @ 31++, UFPI. @ 20-, WPI. @ 58+, XEIKY @ 28, YUM @ 49+, ZD @ 20 ....
and/but, Took, NETS, AFL, Off pot. Puts list, before "put",
as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken
off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to
the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their
"buy/put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as
above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you
consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is
still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have
aborted....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from
buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after
publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that is your doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", ICIX, NEM, XTO, UPR, PBY, BTC, CNS, DOL, SDC, TSA, IGL, BHI., DO, DE, BD, OI., as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, MEDQ, SNPS, NLCS, LGTO, FLEX, ALTR, SEPR, NVLS, LSCC, MRIS, MCK, BMY, FNM, DY, PDX, PMS, STT, SBL, GTE, JEC, MTA, SCI., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. Also, by viewing such charts, tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
MANU 10 5/8 up 2 5/8, TWA 7 5/8 up 1 1/2, FGI. 12 3/8 up 2 1/2, TFN 6 1/2 up 1, CBMI. 3 1/4 up 1/2, BS 9 1/8 up 1 3/8, LFB 12 1/8 up 1 7/8, SSN 4 3/4 up 5/8, CENT 18 1/4 up 3, AG 8 1/2 up 1, HPC 28 7/8 up 2 1/4, VRC 8 1/2 up 1/2, DBRSY 15 1/4, MIFGY 12 3/8, DSGIF 3 1/2, CBRL 23 1/2, GYMB 10 1/2, FWC 12 7/8, VLO 19 1/4, BDR 6 7/8, ULB 3, NOX 2 7/8, CMO 6 (S), PETC 8 3/4, TDW 22 5/8, GCO 8 1/8, up/further, since last time here....
also, note, DURA, CDE, BSC, SMI., ROP, GCO, NIN, SRR (S), rose to hit their 200 DMA, see it ? and, DBRSY, CMO, LFB, are approaching its 200 DMA....are you learning ? and, AIN 22 1/4, BOBJY 42, MDM 6 1/2, BA 37++, UNP 54, FDC 39, higher still (S)....and, we got another takeover, as MII. hit 36....all big Gains were specifically given you herein....also, PAH revalidated....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, PPP 11 3/8 up 1 1/8, FLC 7 3/8 up 3/4, TEN 31 1/2 up 1 3/4, MANU 9 1/2, CPU 12 3/4, GYMB 9 1/4, PAR 7 3/4, HSB, CFS, IIR, UPX, RON, ISSI., GLBL, NBTY, BIR, OFIS, PGO, ESV, HAL 31 1/4,
KRY, NWAC, BEZ, WFT, TAROF, ELCO, IMG, ICI., HBI., IIR, NE, ESOL, MATK, BCP, SEW,
CMND, RXSD, SAMC, CTI., TEN, ARG, SAA, MGN, MAH, WKGP, FNL, MCL, ATX/A, COE, PMK,
LXR, BIR, CCC, SUL, BTC, SSC CCH, MT, and all Metals....some of these
are also in "ms" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above)
NETM 3 up 3/8, PAH 6 3/4 up 1 (sos), MATK 7 3/4 up 3/4, then 7, ADM 16-, HSB
36-, SAMC, ESOL, PETC, OFIS, VTS, HBI., RIG, TEN, MKA, VTS, AOI., MRII., LSN, MLP,
LFB, SAA, CFK, SEW, HMY, GKI., MSN, GDC, NDE, HUG, WCCI., ULB, CDE, FLM, LFB,HUG,
WORK, LXR, PMK, WKGP, MHR, PAR, MCL, IMG, WEL, SSC, SOC, TOX, PMK, IMO,
CAU, FP, cheap golds, oil services
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
*** See, how, MXWL, LGTO, TSAI., INSS, IDXX, HAE, SHX, HAN, TXU, D., fell
right to their 200 DMA, see it ? and, CPQ fell to its 50 DMA....but DLX must
break below its 200 DMA....I also see that "AMD", which they hated when I gave it
to you herein around $ 15, then they loved it when I told you, in section (2)
above, when around $ 30-32, it would go no higher, fell to $ 17-, Thu./Fri., when
the overpaid/overrated analysts missed their estimates ....and they get paid for
not knowing that ? and, a subscriber pointed out, that IBM has now fallen from
190, to 165 or so, though we got stopped out on its standing-island-breakout....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near
support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in
section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....
remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so
please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their
thing. **** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) GNET +7, -5, TLAB +4 1/2, -5,
EFII. -2 1/2, VRSN +5, -3, -5, LCOS +6, -5, ZD +3, -2 1/2, SCMM +5, XMCM +4, QLGC -5, JBL +8, SBUX, MKL -3, +4, CTAS +2 1/2, XMCM +5 1/2, RFMD +5, INTC +8, JCOR -3, UFPI., MCD, SLR, SYY, SVU, BOBE, PROX, BMET, AMP -1, YUM +2, GDT -2, KLAC, CQ....remember, on some of these, I am just looking for follow-through, below recent lows....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
"Leisure/Entertainment": (besides, ELY, PIN, PRD,
WCCI.), found several other real cheapies in the Mansfield charts, which I share
below here.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching"
section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (SAA, UBIX, CMND, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (NGX, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, BGO, RYO, some real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (BS, BIR, RTC, MAH, CYM, CSE, CCC, AGU, FNL, HPC, TEN, IGL, AG)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (WFT, PDS, HP, IIR, TDW, UTI., UMR, VRC, VTS, FLC, SDC,
NE, near their recent lows, Only....also see sec. (3) above, and section just
below here)
Biotech/Health/Medical (TAROF, COB, MATK, FHCC, CBMI., RXSD, NOV, GNSA, TOX, ULB, CCLR, ALLP, TOX, MPN, MT, TXB, HIV, LH)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (REV, NBTY, SRR, COO, PVH, HMY, KFI., MSN, UNO, BLM, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, MIR, ILX, PAM, HET, CIR, SER)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, PAH, EOP, ICH, SMT, WIR, LTC, HOT, LSN, BD, PRT, SMT, WDN, RTC, ARI., NHR, BRE, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CRO, PMC, ENN, FBG, NDE, JPR, MAA, RFS, TMA, IMH, FP, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": MRVC, SUPX, DDIM, FAX,TRP, MSX, CP, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
add, BD, BHI., BKI., CLF, DE, FCX, FLH, HL, HS, ISV, JCP, ORX, PKD, RML, SH, TPS, VTR, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, "repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) ACE, ADGO, ADM, ALN, ALR, AOI., APAC, ARG, BAANF, BCF, BDR, BEV, BEZ, BGO, BMC, BSX, BTC, CBJ, CBRL, CENT, CFS, CLCDF, CNB, CNU, CPU, CXI., CYB, DETC, DMN, EAR, ECO, ELCO, ESV, FHS, FTS, FWC, GGC, GKI., GLBL, HCM, HDG, HMY, HLX, HXL, IAD, ILX, IMP, INPR, ISSI., JLG, LKI., LSN, LUB, LWN, MANU, MB, MGN, MKA, MLP, MPN, NAUT, NETM, NPSI., NWAC, OE, OI., OLGC, PEN, PGO, REV, SEW, SOC, SSM, SSN, SWK, TAM, TBI., TDP, TDW, TIE, TK, TSA, VLO, VTR, WKGP, WTT, VSNR, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health")....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows.... and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....
*** NEW: these are longer, tighter depressed bases, directly from
longer-term, 2 1/2-year, "Mansfield" charts:
health, medical/pharm. (AIMM, ALLP, MRII., NPRO, TAROF, VMRX)
comp./tech./s'ware: (CSRE, GTSI., LSKIC, MIDI., OBJS, KTEC, PNCL)
leisure/entert.: (SHOW, FAIRE, ONST, WCCI., (all real risky/cheap)
capital goods: (DETC, DSGIF, FAVS, ISCO, JPEI.) (most are bigger companies)
Note, some of these have high $ cash/share, little or no debt, and/or earnings, for those of you who value those things....others are REAL
cheapies/very risky....there are others I am checking, with similar patterns,
will let you know....mind you, these are NOT "very-short-term" trades....but some
subscribers wanted some longer, depressed basers, so here they are....just
providing something for every need....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY --- do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are
the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....note Larger/Growing list
!!! note, some may already be down somewhat, yes ?
(banks/insur.) AIG, BEL, HLI., MM, TROW, UNM, WABC,
(comp./techs/s'ware) CPQ, LRCX, MANH, QLGC, TSAI.,
(telecom/commun.) CMCSK, COX, LIN, PROX, TLAB,
(medical/health/drug) ALO, BMET, BGEN, BMY,
(internet) ATHM, DCLK, EBAY, GNET, LCOS, MSPG, NSOL, XMCM,
(retail/food) AZO, BBBY, CBRNA, MCD, RAD, SBUX, SVU, YUM,
**** also watching: add, AAS, AMFM, AMCC, ANN, ART, ASMLF, BCE, BTY, CCRD, CCL, CMGI., CMVT, CVC, CYCLD, CYMI., DELL, DT, DY, ENVY, FTEN, GGO, GTE, HGR, INSP, KBL, LAMR, LSCC, LVCI., MCLD, MEDI., MHK, MHP, MLNM, NITE, NVLS, NXLK, NXTL, OK, PMS, POS, PRGN, RDA, RNWK, SBL, SUNW, T., TCOMA, TER, TR, TSS, TWX, TXN, TY, USM, VCELA, WCII., WTSLA, XLNX, to, ("repeats") ADBE, ADPT, AHAA, ALSI., AMP, APCC, ASND, BBOX, BMY, BVEW, CCRD, CEFT, CNET, CNMD, CSGS, CTAS, DISH, DKWD, DLTR, EFII., ELNK, ESRX, ETEC, EXPD, FNM, GAC, GE, GMSTF, GNSSF, GPSI., GTSG, HAN, IIN, INKT, IMNX, INTC, INTU, ISSX, JBL, LAF, LLTC, LU, LUK, MACR, MANH, MC, MCRL, MEDQ, MFNX, MKL, MPO, MRIS, MYG, NAB, NOK/A, PLH, PMCS, PZZA, QWST, RFMD, SAPE, SCH, SCMM, SEEK, SEGU, SLVN, SPW, SSP, TFSW, TYC, UFPI., USTC, USW, VECO, VOD, VRSN, WHC, WIND, WPI., WPO, XEIKY....
obviously, a Huge list here, as I told you about in section (2)....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, Extended and
at least Semi-parabolic Supermarket, Restaurants, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue
Chips, Consumer, Banks, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance, Finance,
Computer, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, and all Tele.-Commun.,
in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs
ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some
of our past Puttable stocks....the list Grows....
VIEW THE CHARTS....see THE 200 DMA....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
another quick reminder lesson: As I said in section (4) above, watch for some
Oil Service stocks to actually form bottoms, ON "new lows"....as taught in my
"BDG/EVB" booklet, and herein, a "saucer" formation, by nature, must have a "low"
in its middle, yes ? One is just going to have to "guess" and/or take a
shot/stab, at, one such stock down near recent lows, and hang on, with a close
stop below recent low....step back, draw a shallow "saucer" under, say, the last
several months price chart, and you will "see" the S.T. "PSYCLE sm" stage 1
pattern....Similarly, some extended stocks remained Puttable, allowing for "slight new highs" (we draw the upside-down saucer, right ?)....To "never" do Puts, is illogical, and potentially damaging....I thought the whole idea was to learn higher-reliability, exploitable patterns, then act on them, regardless of direction....Boy, Wall Street still has "the 95 %" snookered towards the only the longside, yes ? Good....that means, when correct on Puts, the very few acting, will make all the money on any declines....
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and
giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, I have not had time to give more
"Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....Besides
all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials,
NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential
stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7 NL, through the 12/28 NL....refer back to,
and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock herein
may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any
given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec.
(3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or
fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it
pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains
a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3,
ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times:
all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original
prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact....
period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL
sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up
"revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little
consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all
emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ?
(plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end
period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years".... One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....