1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) one of the last "Y2K" stocks I gave you herein near lows, had its big rise this week: "SAA", from $ 1.00 to $ 3 1/2.... neat....what an I.G. for you, huh....I wonder how well the Gold stocks might perform after more pullbacks, forward....but I do not expect them to match the "Y2K" stocks' percentage rises....obviously, I did not expect the renewed rises again among Gold stocks, to occur as immediately after a one-day pullback, as it did....actually, this is not what we want(ed) to see....but do notice, how, Wednesday's Golds bounces FAILED to break above Monday's early highs, dig ? similarly, with ODP up, another "previously depressed Office Supply stock", and I.G. I was, again, the first to have given them out herein for you at their basing lows.... 2) Mr. broken-record-lately sees more potential 'fakeout breakouts' among extended Techs.... 3) obviously, I am wrong with the already-extended "foreign telecom stocks", which have amazingly risen further/anew, similarly to how many Techs did last year.... 4) am I also wrong with the Banks down here ? no damage....of course, I also gave you AXP, AIG, puts at their highs, in the same I.G., as explained in my "Industry Group Rotation" booklet, please re-read it....and, Utilities must strengthen soon or else.... 4) as more Chem., Cap. Goods, Farming, Equipment, Intl. Oil, and Basic Materials stocks, fall, and/or make new lows here, recall how I was, again, the first/only to give many of them herein, specifically, as Puttables, near their previous, easily-seeable-at-that-time rolling tops for you....Remember, all the 'experts' loved them last year near their highs, "because of the coming worldwide countries' economic recoveries", yes ? Well, as usual, even though their 'fundamental' predictions may come true, the "stocks they recommended to supposedly take advantage of it in their improper 'linking'" (please re-read my "Scenarios" booklet on that subject), FELL big-time, yes ? So, "IF", and I said, "if' "fundamentals" were of help, how could all those kinds of stocks fall, dig ? More proof of the value of "PSYCLE sm" thinking....opposite the way 'the 95 %' do....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) normal: CNBC doesn't interview pres. of ABX, or have a story titled, "gold gains", until Gold, and the stocks I gave you herein lower, had already popped, many reaching their initial upside S.T. resistance levels, dig ? so, as I mentioned last time, one might have 'taken' any S.T. gains after early Mon. follow-through, as I taught you....and, while I eschew such items, you should know (old, public knowledge), that Bill Gates bought a bunch of "PAAS" stock, I think 4 mm shares of it ?, last Fall....and is still long.... 2) oy....all day Wed., CNBC was 'reporting' that, in their (incorrect) opinion, "the Dow is down big, as a result of widespread problems on major web services companies' and online brokerages' sites, due to worry about these cyber-hacking problems", etc. Yeah, right....Not. Please re-read my "scenarios" booklet, section on "Reasons" ....3) Business Week, cover story, 1/24, titled, "the BOOM", says, "time to celebrate....has restored the public's confidence....why the good times keep on rolling....why the productivity revolution will spread....the longest boom is still going strong....we're the only country where you can raise your first $ 100 MM before you buy your first suit...." As I said, normally, near-the-top signs, yes ? Thank goodness they also added a little article at the end, titled, "the risk that boom will turn to bust"....showing, 'bankruptcies' continue rising, growing gap between the fewer wealthy and more poor people, rising consumer debt, more people with no insurance, etc. And, contrary to what 'the headlines' and 'politicians' have been saying, the U.S. "current acounts deficit" rose to about 3.4 % of GDP....as I said previously here, there is NO "budget surplus", it is mostly Govt. accounting shenanigans....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) yes ! well, as I mentioned here recently, this morning, 8 am, I heard the first inkling on CNBC, of a hint, that there may be unfolding, a "recession in Japan", as I will probably end up being among the first/very few to have foreseen/predicted....remember, I said this might be, on hindsight later givenn by 'the 95 %', for the likely coming corrections among many more extended parabolic Tech. stocks ....2) recent Barron's, another negative treatment and chart, on "MCK", and they also admitted being wrong going semi-bullish at $ 34 earlier....as usual,in annestablished base, we'll fade them again, and I still liked it here around $ 20, w/close stop.... 3) Business Week, 1/24, saw a nice 5-year chart of the "core personal consumption deflator", which is main 'fundamental item' that Greenspan watches on which he partly bases his I.R. increases lately, and it looks to me, like -- you guessed it -- a depressed base, ready to rise, dig ? You know how much I eschew fundamentals, but they also mentioned how the recent spate of vastly increased issuance of 'stock options' by corporations, is one factor that will actually raise costs for firms....a new factor, not measured in previous periods, dig ? also, 'the U.S. dollar' chart looks like trying to form its own saucer base --- while 'the experts' begin to go bearish on it, yes ?
4) same BW, 1/24, article, "PC's: are the glory days over ?" , smacks of being potentially bottomy, yes ? With previous bases in MUEI, CPQ, GTW, and, IOM, WDC, etc., in the past year or so, again note, as taught you, in their "PSYCLE sm" such a 'story' never came out/comes out, when these stocks are/were near their highs, dig ? it only gets printed/disseminated AFTER the big stock-price drop....and, normally, their stocks have already had pops off their bottoms, as is the case now....the pattern never changes.... 5) I almost laughed when I read, in the same BW issue, article, "it's tougher for credit-card companies to turn a profit" (wouldn't you ?), because they charge such outrageous rates, yes ? Even allowing for getting stiffed occasionally (believe me, they already pretty-much know how many 'people they send cards to, but should not have', will not pay, etc.), and thei amazing late-charges, there is just no excuse any more for these behemoths not to do well, especially in a supposed 'boom economy', yes ? How do YOU read their continual complaining ? Probably political ? Hey, they created their own situation, regardless....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers:1) the hugely-backed, mass-mailed, and overrated NL, "Personal Finance", recently recommended GUC, headline, "giddy for Gucci" ....as you know, I just added it as a puttable herein....who do you think will be correct ? ....2) did you know that, according to Bull & Bear magazine, "all the gold in the world that is above ground - coins, jewelry, central banks 'ingots'- amounts to about 120,000 tons, worth about $ 1.3 trillion....while the total stock market value of just MSFT, IBM, CSCO, LU, DELL, combined, amounts to about $ 1.6 trillion recently....the global Bond market's value is roughly $ 30. trillion, with about a $ 3 trillion supply per year." Meaning, the bond market dwarfs the stock market (which we already knew), and, it may not take much money to move the Gold markets (ditto)....
3) in Vanguard's recent monthly missive, an article, "Spotlight on Stocks may be obscuring virtues of Bonds", approached this issue from a contrary p.o.v, for which I give them credit, rare in the M. Fund industry....but, in their 'actual continual hidden sales pitch' to scare people out of some of their stocks and into their bond funds (probably because fewer dollars have been going into their bond funds, which need help here), they conveniently fail(ed) to mention the very L.T. actual performance track record of "Bonds" the last century, which pales mightily compared to any measures of stocks, over time....They tried to tell the same investors who bought their Bond funds on earlier sales pitches, often incorrect, and have NOT done well at all (they also failed to show the recent-past track records of their Bond funds, which would have rendered this article semi-useless, but I digress again), that the recent rise in interest rates is somehow 'good' for them, since, "at 6.44 % money might doubles in just over 11 years", as if that is a great deal....dig ? gee, that's what we all want, right ? to double our money, pretax, only after 11 long years, right ? not. FYI, the last 5 years,m the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index has averaged only around 8 % a year return, vs. 25 %+ in stocks....next....If they really wanted to help their millions of investors, they would have me teach their investors I.G. rotation, and/or protecting parabolic positions, buying low, etc.
4) the same Vanguard missive, another big article, point/counterpoint, showed a 20-year chart of how "bond" yields have been drwarfing "dividend" yields, every year, since the 1970's, and further back, etc. They made NO conclusion of D.A.F.P.P.V. (as usual), but I have always said, that, the fact that Bonds have been yielding 4-6 % more per year than dividends on major stocks, by itself, has NOT been a negative, or potential supposedly negative 'reason/factor' to stocks prices forward.... 5) Laszlo Birinyi, in a rare, potentially valuable timing insight, said, speaking of the Jan. 28 drops among extended blue chips, "such selling should have knocked only a half point off many stocks which fell a lot more....there were no buyers...." He sees a 'shortage of buyers', something I have not heard a NL writer or analyst say in a LONG time.... He specifically did not even inmtimate at a bear market coming, but that makes sense to me....As I mentioned previously here recenetly, recent actiuon has smacked more of Distribution, than Accumulation, even allowing for some breakouts higher among a small number of parabolic stocks....See, if the drops are due to a torrent of sellers, that's one thing....but recent drops are NOT occuring that way....up early, fading later, iduring days, and on lower volume, etc. I say the bigger risk is certainly on the downside among them, period. And, more, 'rolling tops' are very likely to unfold, still....
e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) L.A. Times, 2/6, editorial, "The dot-com obsession is warping the U.S. economy",correctly mentiones, "adoring Media....wildly overblown expectations....limitless cyberfantasies warping society....policies skewing economic incentives almost exclusively away from industrial activities...." But he wrote that the 'real' biggest change in the 1980's and 1990's, was the huge Foreign inflow of money to the U.S., and our pension accounts growth....providing the bucks to fund the Internet....Also pointed out, that, in 1999, 80 % of all the increase in value of equities occured in Internet-Tech. stocks....$ 4. trillion worth....while, as you know, 60-70 % of all equities declined in 1999....and, the stocks of all the main 'bedrock' industries of America, shrunk, or failed to grow at all....The dot-com boom did nothing to halt America's decline in manufacturing....he mentions this paradox, asking, 'why do we celebrate regions and activities which promote unbalanced inequality but revile those that foster more economic opportunities for the mass of society?" he concludes, we are "squandering our 'peace dividends' on a strikingly limited myth, making a small number of people wealthy, while/when the majority of people still have little opportunity...." Where do you stand on this ? just for thought....
f) speaking of trends not reported until after in force for a while (normal "PSYCLE sm" Media behavior), Business Week just reported that, though still well below their levels of 15-25 years ago, "U.S. consumption of Beef, per person, has been Rising, for over ten years now, due to the string economy, less concern about cholesterol, and the popularity of all-protein diets...."
and, I know this is off the subject, but I wanted to be the first to let you knoew, just this filing year, that, because April 15 falls on a Saturday, you evidently have until/including April 17, Monday, to file/send in return/contribute to IRA, etc. Just FYI, as a public service....check it out....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
puts MCHP (70 to 47-) for Q 175% Gain....bal. stock SAA (1- to 3+) for L.T. 250% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. TMD (5+ to 9-) for Q 100% G....bal. calls ELNK (40+ to 48++) for 100% G....1/2 pos. puts MMM (102 to 85+) for 100% G....1/2 pos. puts BRW (40 to 32+) for VQ 100% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. CCC (5++ to 8+) for L.T. 80% G.... 1/2 pos. calls JEF (20- to 25-) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. EX (7+ to 10+) for VVVQ 75% G....bal. puts AIG (112 to 94) for VQ 90% G....
and/but, longs, IEE (8+ to 4+ to 7+), DOL ?, BEV, MCH, BAMM ?, EC ?, TWA ?, AEE ?, EGR ?, LPX ?, ONE, KEY, CAN ?, HIB, and, puts, MUSE, SILK, OMPT, QLGC, VSTR, SUNW, INFA, RRRR, NTPA, LXK, BRCD, ASML, BRCM, SBL, NSOL, RNWK, TEK ?, NOK, SKM, TIBX, GILTF, bal. QQQ, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....but, still too many Q, S, losses....and still too many (?) patterns....yuck....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
1/2 pos. ACL @ 15+, 1/2 pos. CNS @ 13++, 1/2 pos. CONV @ 8++, 1/2 pos. CQ @ 17-, 1/2 pos. DROOY @ 1 3/4, 1/2 pos. FJ @ 26, 1/2 pos. GOU @ 3 1/4, 1/2 pos. LMT @ 18-, 1/2 pos. 1/2 pos. RAD @ 7 1/8, SAH @ 8-, 1/2 pos. SSRI. @ 1 9/32, 1/2 pos. UCI. @ 10, 1/2 pos. TSA @ 2.06,
"Repeats": ADM @ 11+, AEE ?, ASH @ 31+, ATHM @ 35+, AZC @ 0.70, BAMM ?, BBC @ 6++, BGO @ 5/8, BL @ 13, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, CMX @ 4 1/8, CQ @ 17+, DAY @ 0.06, EGR no ?, EX @ 8--, FAF @ 12+, FAX @ 5, FE @ 22 1/8, FIX @ 7-, FPL @ 41, FSS @ 15+, FTR @ 3-, GV @ 5/16, HUM @ 7+, JBM @ 3--, JCP @ 18-, LPX ?, LUV @ 15+, LWN @ 7/16, MIR @ 12 1/8, MNY @ 26+, NCS @ 14+, NHI. @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OCN ?, OH @ 2 11/16, PMC @ 8, RDL @ 3, RPD @ 2 1/8, SAMC @ 5 1/2, SFI. @ 17+, SMU @ 5+, TVX @ 0.75...."buy (only) low", right ? (note, the "BIS" listed here recently was obviously a mistake, but viewing it, you knew this)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, LTV, STS, SKO, BWA, CGP, ABS, IR, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) 1/2 pos. AAPL @ 118, 1/2 pos. CHINA @ 94++, CLRN @ 99, CRA @ 256, 1/2 pos. EMC @ 119, EXDS @ 128+, EXTR @ 99-, GUC @ 115, ITRU @ 169, KSU @ 76-, PTEL @ 101, TEVA @ 75-, TMPW @ 155, XLK ?, (br>
"Repeats": ARBA @ 198, BHC @ 160+, CMC @ 33+, DIGX @ 103-, DT @ 73+, ETM @ 67, EXPD @ 42+, MAN @ 37++, MCHP @ 69+, MDY @ 84-, MGM @ 24+, NEON @ 60, ORCL @ 61-, TEK no ?, UMG @ 80-....
and/but, took, RBAK, JBL, TZA, CHIR, LVLT, CS, INSP, INCY, TRRA, MSTR, TWRS, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....this cleans up the list in section (7) more, for you....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", JWN, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, TSM, CCU, CBS, ADRX, OIL, EXTR, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
SAA 3 5/8 up 2 5/8 wow (S), GTN 0.93 up 0.18, EX 10 5/8 up 2 13/16, TSA 2 1/2 up 1/2, BL 15 1/2 up 2 1/2, CONV 9 15/16 up 1 3/8, RAD 8 1/4 up 3/4, AVL 8 3/4 up 7/8, ODP 13 3/4 up 1 1/4, MCK 21 3/16 up 1, FAF 12 3/4 up 5/8, MNY 27 3/4 up 1 3/8, RPM 10 9/16, SFI. 18 1/4, JEF 25 1/4 (sos), ASHW 5 1/8, TMG 6, BPP 10 1/8, PAAS 5 3/8, DHI. 13, higher, since last time here.... notice how ODP approaches its 200 DMA....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: CMX 4 5/8 up 1/2, RAD 7, BMG 2 1/8, 2 7/8, 2 3/8, BMC 5 15/16 up 9/16, ECO 1 1/2, BGO 3/4, WEL 1 1/4, TMG 5, NCI. 10, MHR 3 5/8 up 1/4, XRX 20 5/8, GAP 24 7/8, VGZ, GV, TOK, OCN, AMTD, WDC, WMI. 15+, NBL 21-, MCK 19++, DLX 25++, VBAC, GRL, TGI. -1, ATHM, EC, RPM 10-, FPL 42+ up 1, HUM, BIS, ASH, VDC, ADM, MHX, HEB, HMY, FTR, ZMAX, NHR, BBC, HRC, IMG, IOM, CKR, DDS, RPD, SAMC 6 up 1/2, MUEI., LPX, OH, LWN, SMU, GTN, FIX....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) CAN, IEE 7 3/8 (S), AMTD, BL, CBJ, FAX, EGR, FIX, LPX, CAN, JEF, DDS, MHX, MCK, FPL, HUM, CMX, BAMM, PDQ, EC, NHI., RPD, TGI., LMM, GHV, AEE, BBC, PMC, DOL, GAP, MIR, ADM, OCN, WCC....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out: still giving you plenty of decliners, read them carefully: CRA -22, MCHP -24 (S), ARBA -12, GUC -19, EXDS -12, TMPW -8, ETM -9, AAPL -10, BHC -7, DIGX -9, PTEL -6, ITRU -9, EXPD -6, TEVA -5, EMC -5 1/4, NEON -4 1/2, AXP -5, VRTS -4 1/2, AIG -4 (sow), ADRX -4, BRW -3 1/2 (sow), EXTR -3 1/2, MGM -2, MMM -1 3/4, CLB -1 1/2, DOV -1 1/2 (sow), SUNW -1, UMG -2, MDY +1, -2, KSU -1 1/2, MAN, CMC, lower since last NL....and, HON, NKE, also even lower....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (HUM, BDX, BEV, TXM, HIV, BBC, RAD, etc., others have bounced, up already)
Prec. Metals (CAU, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, CCH, SSRI, PAAS, etc., longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (NHR, NHI., NNN, DDR, FCH, GTA, ARI., KRC, CBG, PAG, BPP, BTR, etc.) (also some Housing-related stocks, below)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, DDS, HMY, BUR ?, OO, SRR, USV, RDL, CNS)
Utility (AEE, FPL, FE, EX, SRE, CQ, KSE, etc.)
Energy (SUN, ASH, MHR, NBL, ASH, GOU, etc.)
Financials/Banks (FAF, JEF, OCN, XRX, AMTD, SCH, etc.)....but removed most all "Insur." stocks,
* plus, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, Funeral, stocks, down the road....
I am also noting more 'busted consumer goods' stocks below....like, SOC, REV, FTL, HMY, etc. ?
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, to, CONV, SMU, TVX, LWN, JOB, BWL/A, RDL, MSN, XCL, NCI, NCS, ADM, LAN, to,
also, "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, PDG, ABX, PAAS, SSRI, LII., JWN, OWC, SVU, ASL, KSE, HBI., JNC, SCS, DROOY, to, NGH, SCS, BL, USL, AIN, FSS, HII, WAC, LEG, DHI., MUEI, HBI., MIR, ICO, HS, LMT, RPM, SOC, FAX, PLSIA, MRA, REV, SAH, TIE, TR, UCI, TSA, WNC, IO, SGI, CGX, IKN, ABM, HMY, BSX, AN, ESA, KWD, LUB, MNY, TEI, PCP, BYX, OMI, NOW, FTL, CKR, ATHM, CHKE, CMX, FTR, VDC, VX, SFI, AVL, WSO, LUV, BDX, GSR, JBM, OH, IM, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, was/is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, OCLI, PCS, KSU, ADRX, CLRN, DMRK, DIGX, JDSU, NTLI, TMPW, TEVA, SCMR, XLK, CCU, PLCM, to, EXDS, LMG/A, GUC, CRA, UMG, SCI, PCS, TTN, HNCS, SILK, GNET, EXPD, NEON, CMDX, CDWC, ENGA, EXTR, PTEL, PXCM, ZBRA, VRSN, CHINA, ITRU, MRX, ETA, GPS, MOT, SFE, TIF, ADCT, CMCSK, CSC, CHRW, NTPA, VNWK, SSTI, VITR, DISH, WIND, CCN, MDP, CMC, AXP, BJ, VIP, ARBA, AAPL, VIA, OMC, BHC, FDRY, FCST, RCCC, HHH, DIGL, MAN, ORCL, IMN, LCOS, CTS, MDY, MHP, MGM, TSCC, AFCI., TV, TFSM, from recent past NL's,
and, are, KLAC, 'fakeout breakouts' ?
* Just view some charts, and if stock is now near its high, without having broken above its topping pattern, it remains a Puttable here and now, right ?
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service, Wines/Liquors/beverages, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Retail, Foreign, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: technical notes: while Very risky, "PEN" Pentegra Dental, had insider purchases of over 200,000 shares, trying to form a base around $ 1....lots of debt, though....Have you noticed the long depressed bases, in RDL, MUEI., SMU, HRC, SFI, CONV, HUM, SMU, OH, FIX, WMI., etc. ? neat, huh....of course, FSS, ADM, UCI, FAF, AVL, NHI, MCK, MIR, some Utilities, etc., have a bit shorter-term bases ....both types should work out, more than not, independent of "the markets' indexes", with close stops removing much risk, anyway, diversifying....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....