1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
For instance, among the Internets/Techs, watch(ed) for the 50-and-200 DMA's, and/or their recent support levels, to stop initial drops....do NOT expect immediate, straight-down moves to much lower levels....most of those levels represent potential "necklines" of short-term H & S patterns in them, going back to their Nov./Dec. levels, see it ? ....they look like upside-down isosciles triangles, if you will....hence, the "puts" sales in sec. (3) below....as of Wed. 10th, the Internets and Online Brokers, were right AT their S.T. support levels, "PSYCLE sm" stage 5 or 6, and was/is impossible to tell whether they will break further, yet....see today's Lesson in sec. (8) below....
As I said, all I heard recently, was "sure, a little S.T. correction, then long-term bullish" from everyone....Not one single CNBC or KWHY tome was/is more bearish than down 5-10 % off highs on the extended stocks, still....heck, they are all already wrong, as many "extendeds" are already down more than 15- 20 % and more....and, Evidently, Tue. 9th was the 3rd biggest "point" decline in the NASD, replacing last week's previous "third biggest point decline"....As I teach, "points" never mean as much, as "percentage" moves, remember that....The Media sensationalizes any way they can....but you already know that....
So, once again, we hold more cash, having taken some tax-selling gains, cut some losses, and taken many Puts gains....we are not antsy to find or force more puts or longs, if the patterns are not there....You know the favored I.G.'s, and can read the charts by now....I will know more when I see new chartbooks, this long weekend....but next will be normal time, Monday, even though markets are closed....have a good weekend, and maybe, if you have never viewed the charts, take some time to do so, for YOUR benefit....
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable,
staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm"
patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that
best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR
educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most
Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and
I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and
(5). Very clear sections. You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) some Internets already dropped to their recent S.T. support levels, hence the partial sales above....oh, and notice the new website, "itulip.com", another top sign for them....keep in mind, long-term, that, when this is all over, there will be tons of people actually questioning why they got all excited about the Internet this much....understand, the Internet WILL survive, just more fallout.... 2) oh, and, just FYI, according to a recent Renaissance Capital Cp. study, in 1998, the excluding the first day of trading, the average Inetrnet IPO's stock price actually FELL - 50 % in 1998.... 3) have you noticed 10 insider buys, lower, in "NOI." ? ....3) thanks to the subscriber who pointed out, that we were the first and certainly only, to give out, and catch, several depressed, cheapie "Drug/Lab" stocks, since Dec., like, LH, ULB, IOX, IPIC, HIV, TXB, LXR, CCLR, TAROF, etc., herein, for you....others, like, ALLP, TOX, have not worked yet....check their patterns to see why....
b) 1) another toppy sign: front page stories about that recent internet site with the supposed "free PC's".... 2) note, how NIKE rose, after Jordan retired, just as "the experts" all "began" to get more Negative--- now, down from its high at 76, they get negative.... 3) Mon. 8th, I actually heard salient comments on KWHY-tv, regarding likelihood of more/renewed mergers among depressed Oil Service stocks, and I heartily agree.... 4) L.A. Times, 2/5, said, a recent study done by the Dow Theory Forecasts NL (they actually have a below-avg. track record, in reality, but sometimes they do come up with a valuable item), found that S & P "stocks with PE's under 10", returned FIVE TIMES (5X !!!) that of "stocks with PE over 40", from 12/1/94 to 1/20/99....the low PE group returned + 250 %, while the high PE group returned only + 50 %, total, over that 5+ year period....wow....of course, I ask, what of companies LOSING money, which had/have no "PE" ? But I digress....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary stock prices moves, etc.: 1) cnbc's Bob Pisani, Tue., 8:30 am, said, "everyone I talk to remains a long-term bull....I don't know anyone who is concerned here" ....2) Tue. 8th, cnbc, Goldman, Sachs came out with "new buy" on KSWS, way up here at $ 41., wild, huh ? ....3)
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) Merrill, Fri. 5th/Mon. 8th, came out with new buys, on some "chip" stocks, like, NVLS, LRCX, NOK/A, KLAC, TER....way up here ? and, worse, going opposite my "PSYCLE sm" prediction ? ....2) Mon. 8th, all of a sudden, it seems too many B-firms also came out with cautionary comments, MER, Cantor F., Salomon, Smith B., etc. I think their "words" do not necessarily match their "actions", yes ? I remember, among other times, in mid-1982, when I got in trouble at E.F. Hutton, for getting massively bullish, and distributing long lists of single-digit-priced depressed stocks (which rose hundreds of percent), because the major B-firms had "bearish/cautionary comments" publically outstanding....But, in reality, they were buying my stocks, and blue chips, privately, at that very time when their "public" statements were "cover-their-ass-cautionary", dig ? You know, I think I still have copies of massively bullish B-firm research reports somewhere, on the then- parabolic Oil Service stocks, from 1981, and the then- parabolic Gaming stocks, from 1979, publically disseminated, while, privately, they were selling/shorting them....The parabolic Biotechs were front-pages in the 1980's before they fell.... For the umpteenth time, concentrate on the chart patterns, and NOT what is said in the Media....Numbers and words can lie and mislead--- but prices/patterns don't lie anywhere nearly as often....
3) Tue. 9th, 11:45, KWHY-tv, Jim Dines, actually said, "don't be fazed by these little dips in the Internet stocks....our job is to hold all the way up...." But, gee Mr. Dines, haven't they gone 'all the way up' already ? and he is still long....I told you he wouldn't sell, or hedge, or portect his Internet positions ....and since when are 20-30 % quick drops, 'little dips' ? ....4) Tue. 9th, 11;40, on CNBC, Jim Awad, actually said we have a "biforcated" market (with the accent on the second syllable, no less)....oy....he remains quite bullish on the extended stocks already correcting.... 5) Wed. 10th, CNBC said that both S. Leuthold, and D. Dreman, both recently at least semi-bearish, are also beginning to look at the Oil Service stocks....good.... 6) recently, YHOO and AOL received S & P's highest ratings for the 1999 year ahead, for "appreciation potential", as their top two "power picks"....kiss of death ?
e) again, I hate to get "economic" on you, but does anyone outside the White House actually believe there will be massive "surplusses" in coming years ? They can't wait to spend money that does not even exist yet....Gee, if "stocks rose a bunch" with massive deficits, wouldn't that mean they would FALL massively with surplusses ? See how UN-linkable/illogical such items are ? and that money so well spent, OUR money, on continual legal stuff, including impeachment, in D.C., which we get no say about ? great system, huh....I just want to remind you, that none of those kinds of things are of any "D.U.F.P.P.V.", with respect to predictability of future stock prices, regardless....Re-read my media, and Scenarios booklets....
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
previous short sale", where no puts options existed....
and/plus these long-siders: stk.on.mgn. TWA (4++ to 7++) for Q 80% Gain.... stk.on.mgn. MIFGY (8+ to 12+) for Q 80% G....1/2 pos. calls CENT (14- to 18+) for VQ % G....stock IOX (2- to 3+) for VQ 70% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TFN (4 to 6+) for Q 66% G....stock ULB (1 3/4 to 3) for 66% G....1/2 pos. calls CYM (9 1/2 to 12 1/4) for VVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. calls LFB (9++ to 12+) for Q 66% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. JBAK (4 to 6) for 66% G....bal. pos. stk.on.mgn. BCP (5+ to 7+) for 66% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. CDE (4+ to 6-) for Q 55% G....1/2 pos. stock SSN (3 7/8 to 5 1/2) for Q 35% G....
and/but, longs, BAANF, MATK, MPN, HUG, FWC, HSB, HXL, PEN, CFK, FHS, VTS, MHR, FLC, VC, FP, and puts, YUM, for VQ, very small losses, of little or no overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio.
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns
are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying
those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less
risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right
? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the %
Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short
holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these have always been listed, from
biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(Note: Read again, carefully, for new, "re-added" repeats !!!) ADM @ 15+, AGU @ 8 3/16, ALLP @ 3.06, ARG @ 8+, AZC @ 9/16, BGO @ 3/4, CAU @ 0.31, CCC @ 6.06, CCH @ 3/16, CSRE @ 3 1/2, CXI. @ 5/16, EAR @ 5/8, ECO @ 1 11/16, FLM @ 8++, GGC @ 14++, GKI. @ 2 7/8, ISCO @ 1 1/8, LSN @ 3 13/16, LWN @ 3 5/8, MANU @ 8+, MKA @ 8+, MLP @ 9+, NGX @ 1/2, NOI. @ 10., NWAC @ 23, OFIS @ 5 5/8, PAM @ 3 9/16, PAR @ 7 1/8, PDS @ 10+, PKD @ 3.06, PMK @ 23, PPP @ 10.06, RIG @ 23++, RXSD @ 13-, SAA @ 0.75, SSC @ 11/16, TOX @ 3/16, TDW @ 21-, TEN @ 30-, UPX @ 1 13/16, VGZ @ 3/16, WS @ 1 13/16....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds.... "buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein, countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, HS, VTR, GPC, SWK, ORX, ILX, OI., --- Off the pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips --- either, for straight
Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my
valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still
having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) ADLAC @ 59, ALSI. @ 68+, AMCC @ 41+, ART @ 29-, ASMLF @ 46+, BLL @ 45-, CYMI. @ 28+, FTEN @ 37++, GGO @ 29, LVLT @ 60-, MEDI. @ 53+, MTA @ 31-, NXTL @ 33-, TCOMA @ 68+, VCELA @ 30-, XLNX @ 81+....
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) AHAA @ 39+, AMFM @ 59, AZO @ 34, BEL @ 60-, CNMD @ 33-, ETEC @ 55-, KLAC @ 59+, LCOS @ 138+, LLTC @ 102, LRCX @ 38-, MCD @ 80+, MHP @ 113, QLGC @ 140, SCMM @ 83, TY @ 29-, UFPI. @ 20+, WPI. @ 58+, XEIKY @ 28....remember, some of these hit puttable price levels back on monday, as well....
and/but, Took, , Off pot. Puts list, before "put",
as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken
off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to
the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed
EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their
"buy/put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as
above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you
consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is
still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have
aborted....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from
buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after
publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that is your doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", GNCI., TAM, BSX, SCY, FLS, CFS, TIE, GW, PH, LH, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, IONAY, CNET, LVCI., ISSX, USM, ODP, TSS, TER, PMS, TXN, TWX, POS, RDA, MC, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. Also, by viewing such charts, tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
IOX 3 7/8 up 7/8 (S), SSN 5 5/8 up 1 (sos), HCM 5 3/8 up 7/8, WORK 8 3/8 up 1 1/2, CYM 12 3/8 up 1 1/4 (S), ESOL 2 1/8 up 1/2, NPRO 2 1/8 up 3/8, LWN 4 up 1/2, IMH 6 1/8 up 3/4, MIR 16 up 2 3/8, PSFT 20 1/4 up 2, DBRSY 16 1/8 up 1, VLO 19 3/8 up 1 1/4, CBMI. 3 1/2, MLP 9 5/8, ULB 3 1/8 (S), INPR 5 5/8, FGI. 13, up/further, since last time here....
**** for the last time: also, note, DURA, CDE, BSC, SMI., ROP, GCO, NIN, SRR (S), rose to hit their 200 DMA, see it ? and, DBRSY, CMO, LFB, are approaching their 200 DMA....are you learning ? and, LSI. 27, AIN 22 1/4, BOBJY 42, MDM 6 1/2, BA 37++, UNP 54, FDC 39, PAH 7-, rose higher still (S)....and, we got another takeover, as MII. hit 36....all big Gains were specifically given you herein....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, RXSD 13 3/4 up 1, RON 26, 28 3/8, FHS 9 1/2 up 1/2, PAR 8, CBMI. 2 3/4, PSFT 18, PPP, TEN, MANU, CBRL, CPU, GYMB, CFS, IIR, UMR, UPX, TFN, ISSI., GLBL, NBTY, BIR, OFIS, PGO, ESV, HAL, LWN, KRY, NWAC, BEZ, WFT, TAROF, ELCO, IMG, ICI., HBI., IIR, NE, ESOL, SEW, CMND, SAMC, CTI., TEN, ARG, SAA, MGN, MAH, WKGP, FNL, MCL, COE, PMK, LXR, BIR, CCC, SUL, BTC, SSC, CCH, UTI., MT, BS, Oil Services, Metals....some of these are also in "ms" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above)
PAH 6 7/8 (sos), ESOL 1 5/8, DO 23 1/2, NETM, HMY, ADM, SAMC, PETC, OFIS, NETM, HBI., RIG, TEN, MKA, VTS, AOI., MRII., LSN, SAA, LUB, SEW, HMY, GKI., MSN, GDC, UTI., NDE, WCCI., FLM, LFB, LXR, PMK, WKGP, PAR, MCL, IMG, WEL, SSC, SOC, CTI., TOX, PMK, CAU, WS, cheap golds, oil services
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
CTXS -2 1/2, EXPD -2, CYMI. -2 3/4, ASND -2 1/2, SNPS -2 1/2, BLL -2 1/2, RAD -2 1/2 (sowo), COX -2 1/4, XEIKY -2 1/2, GLW -2, GGO -2 1/4, CQ -3 (sow), JCOR -2, MTA -2, LAMR -1 3/8, KROG -1 3/8, WHC -1 1/2 (S), GDT -2 1/2, CCRD -2 (S), EFII. -2, VCELA -1 3/8, CMCSK +3, -5, TYC +3, -5, BOBE -1 1/2 (S), DLTR -2 1/2 (S), ALSI. -1 1/2, ALO -1 1/2, WABC -1 (S), FTEN -1 3/8, RSCR -1 1/4 (S), MPO -2, ART -2, SPW -2, WPI. -1, ZD -2, CHTT -2 (S), LRCX -2, MSBC, EXPD -1, SBUX -1 1/2, TROW -1, LAF -1 (S), SSP, PE (S), MHK -1, VL -1 1/2, IIN, down further, just since last time here....also see 'bouncers' below....
some of these were falling so fast, I was unable to keep up with the price changes....I try my best for you....
***** I'm begging you, for the last time: Please actually See, how, CHTT, BOBE, CEFT, DKWD, FORR, MXWL, LGTO, BMET, RSCR, TSAI., INSS, IDXX, IONAY, APCC, MEDQ, WABC, HAE, SHX, HAN, TXU, ODP, SCH, LAF, PE, D., fell right to/towards their 200 DMA, see it ? beautiful, yes ? all were specifically suggested herein....be sure to VIEW THEIR CHARTS, TO LEARN !!! and, NSOL, EGRP, PRGN, DRIV, CPQ, VOD, fell to their 50 DMA....LCOS puts were "sold" at previous "gap" level, see it ? ....and WCII., GPSI., DLX, SPW, approaching their 200 DMA, and/but must still break below it....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near
support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in
section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....
remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so
please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their
thing. **** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) LLTC +14, SLR +10, CTXS +7, XLNX +6, AIG +6, MOT -5, XMCM +12, SCMM -6 1/2, ETEC +4, PROX +4, GAC +2 1/2, -2, LIN -2, JBL -5, KLAC -2, +2, ADBE -2, LAMR +2, MKL, CTAS +3, GPSI. +2 1/2, INTC, KLAC, UFPI., MCD -2, ZD +2, LVLT, BBBY (S), SYY, LAF, SVU, AMP, FAM, IIN, MM.... remember, on some of these, I am just looking for follow-through, below recent lows....
and, of course, getting TONS of bounces off Tue./Wed. lows, like, QLGC +12, RNWK +11, RFMD +9, ASMLF +3 1/2, NVLS +5, CMVT +4, RNWK +4, RFMD +3, AMCC +3, LVLT +2, INTC +5, VRSN +5, SNPS +3, and amny, many others, Thu., etc....some intraday volatility, huh....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
"Leisure/Entertainment": (besides, ELY, PIN, PRD,
WCCI.), found several other real cheapies in the Mansfield charts, which I share
below here.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching"
section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (SAA, UBIX, CMND, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (NGX, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, BGO, RYO, some real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (BS, BIR, RTC, MAH, CYM, CSE, CCC, AGU, FNL, HPC, TEN, IGL, AG)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (WFT, PDS, IIR, TDW, UMR, VRC, SDC, NE, TDW, BHI., etc., near their recent lows, Only....also see sec. (3) above, and section just below here)
Biotech/Health/Medical (TAROF, FHCC, CBMI., NOV, GNSA, TOX, CCLR, ALLP, TOX, MT, TXB, HIV, LH)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (REV, NBTY, KFI., MSN, UNO, BLM, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, MIR, ILX, PAM, HET, CIR, SER)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, PAH, EOP, ICH, SMT, WIR, LTC, HOT, LSN, BD, PRT, SMT, WDN, RTC, ARI., NHR, BRE, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CRO, PMC, ENN, FBG, NDE, JPR, MAA, RFS, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": HS, VTR, GPC, SWK, ORX, ILX, OI., --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
add, BD, BXH, DE, FAX, FCX, FLH, HL, ISV, PSFT, PKD, REF, RML, SH, TPS, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, "repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) ACE, ADGO, ADM, ALN, ALR, AOI., APAC, ARG, BCF, BDR, BEV, BEZ, BMC, BSX, BTC, CBJ, CBRL, CFS, CLCDF, CNB, CNU, CPU, CXI., CYB, DETC, EAR, ECO, ELCO, ESV, FTS, GGC, GKI., GLBL, GNCI., HCM, HDG, HMY, HLX, HP, IAD, IMP, INPR, ISSI., JCP, JLG, LKI., LSN, LUB, LWN, MANU, MB, MGN, MKA, MLP, NAUT, NETM, NPSI., NWAC, OE, OLGC, PGO, REV, SEW, SOC, SSM, SSN, SWK, TAM, TDP, TIE, TK, TSA, VLO, VTR, WKGP, WTT, VSNR, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health, Energy").... some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....
*** NEW: these are longer, tighter depressed bases, directly from
longer-term, 2 1/2-year, "Mansfield" charts:
health, medical/pharm. (AIMM, ALLP, MRII., NPRO, TAROF, VMRX)
comp./tech./s'ware: (CSRE, GTSI., LSKIC, MIDI., OBJS, KTEC, PNCL)
leisure/entert.: (SHOW, FAIRE, ONST, WCCI., (all real risky/cheap)
capital goods: (DETC, DSGIF, FAVS, ISCO, JPEI.) (most are bigger companies)
Note, some of these have high $ cash/share, little or no debt, and/or earnings, for those of you who value those things....others are REAL
cheapies/very risky....there are others I am checking, with similar patterns,
will let you know....mind you, these are NOT "very-short-term" trades....but some
subscribers wanted some longer, depressed basers, so here they are....just
providing something for every need....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY --- do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are
the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....note slightly shrinking/smaller list, and, some may already be down somewhat, yes ?
(banks/insur.) AIG, BEL, HLI., TROW,
(comp./techs/s'ware) LRCX, QLGC,
(telecom/commun.) CMCSK, COX, TLAB,
(medical/health/drug) ALO, BMET, BGEN, BMY,
(retail/food) AZO, BBBY, CBRNA, MCD, RAD, SBUX, SVU,
NOTE: many of these stocks are already down, so, be sure to read revised puttables lists in Monday's NL !!!
**** also watching: add, AOL, BLL, MNMD, WMT, to, AAS, AMFM, AMCC, ANN, ART, BCE, BTY, CCL, CMVT, CVC, CYCLD, CYMI., DELL, DT, DY, ENVY, FTEN, GGO, GTE, INSP, KBL, LAMR, LSCC, LVCI., MCLD, MEDI., MHK, MHP, MLNM, NITE, NVLS, NXLK, NXTL, OK, POS, PRGN, RDA, RNWK, SBL, SUNW, T., TCOMA, TER, TR, TSS, TWX, TXN, TY, USM, VCELA, WCII., WTSLA, XLNX, and, ("repeats") ADBE, ADPT, ALSI., AMP, ASND, BBOX, BMY, BVEW, CNMD, CSGS, CTAS, DISH, ETEC, EXPD, FNM, GAC, GE, GMSTF, GNSSF, GPSI., GTSG, HAN, IIN, IMNX, INTC, INTU, ISSX, JBL, LAF, LLTC, LU, LUK, MACR, MANH, MC, MCRL, MEDQ, MFNX, MKL, MPO, MRIS, NAB, NOK/A, PMCS, QWST, RFMD, SAPE, SCH, SCMM, SEGU, SLVN, SPW, SSP, TYC, UFPI., USTC, USW, VOD, VRSN, WIND, WPI., WPO, XEIKY....
obviously, a Huge list here, as I told you to expect recently....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, Extended and
at least Semi-parabolic Supermarket, Restaurants, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue
Chips, Consumer, Banks, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance, Finance,
Computer, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, and all Tele.-Commun.,
in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs
ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some
of our past Puttable stocks....the list Grows....
VIEW THE CHARTS....see THE 200 DMA....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW: another quick reminder lesson: Obviously, the decision whether or not to sell profitable Puts, at their 50-day or 200-day Moving Averages, or in between, is a personal one for YOU....I cannot make those decisions for you, I can only guide you and teach you the patterns, etc., which I have....Those are things you pay your broker to help you with....For the umpteenth time, I tend to lean more conservative with Puts, taking "quick gift gains" (as taught in the "Guide" booklet), when such stocks fall real fast, and NOT sticking around, "just hoping for more in immediate continuation"....You will catch many Gains that way, and avoid further stress, as "bounces off initial V.S.T. lows" occur, dig ?
Often, we will take Puts Gains even "near" the MA's, not awating hitting the still-rising MA, with Puts, because, again, we favor the "bird in the hand" approach to trading....Plus, taking such gains a little early at times, ensures our mental sanity....Remaining in, say, the Internets, past Wednesday's lows, would have been asking for a lot, technically, from those stocks, and, would have created mental stress....The support they had was obvious, and, even when.if they break again, they still must pop, to sucker in more people again, and take the pressure off long holders....Stage 5 and 6 bounce behavior, yes ? last, as I taught you, when "a whole bunch of stocks in one general industry group area" fall quickly, it still pays to take the quick gift gains, rather than stick around.... We may get another opportunity to Put these same stocks sold in sec. (3) above, after further bounces....
Of course, many issues really did decline to their MA's or previous breakout support levels, making sales of said Puttables easier, this time around....This is an ART, and NOT a science, remember....We don't need to be anywhere near perfect, "just get close"....hope this helped....
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7 NL, through the 12/28 NL.... refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock herein
may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any
given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec.
(3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or
fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it
pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains
a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3,
ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times:
all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original
prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact....
period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL
sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up
"revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little
consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all
emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ?
(plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end
period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years".... One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....