1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
As you might imagine, my weekly look at 2,500 individual stock charts, yielded the most lopsided toopy/bearish NASDAQ issues in a LONG time (no pun intended)....and, as the 'split' market continues, a growing list of depressed potentially-bottomy NYSE list....many of them L.T. blue-chip names....hmmmm....so, at some point ahead, you will have a nice choice among big-name, old-line U.S. company stocks to buy.....

In my 'follow-up' paragraph in section (4) below, note how many 'previously given you herein basing stocks' have had recent rises rivalling tyhe percentage occuring in some Internets/Semis/Techs, and, how many are/were on the AMEX exchange....you know, the exchange no one talks about any more, but I give you VG ideas from each week....Talk about negative sentiment becoming positive for us, yes ? Meanwhile, according to the L.A. Times, "the avg. small-stock M. Fund is up + 12 % so far this year, vs. the Dow, down - 9 %, and the NASDAQ biggies down - 3 %"....I eschew most fundamentals, but this may be the first quarter wherein 'small-cap earnings' exceed + 20 % growth....the laggards are catching up, exactly as I was among the first/very few to have predicted from late last year here, and I suggested buying the depresseds for tax-selling bounces, right ? Sure, we have had some Q, S, losses, even longside, of little consequence to a properly diversified portfolio, note how many have now had stage 2, or even stage 3, price rises....Independently and regardless of 'what the big names are doing' (and those are extended and potentially toppy here).

I see more potential 'fakeout breakouts' occuring among puttables, like, ORCL, RNWK, XLK, ARBA, KLAC, VRSN, etc. And note the obvious 'necklines' (there's that word again), in the big indexes, a little lower, DOW around 10,000 , S & P around 1233, NASDAQ around 3711, etc. Also, their 200 DMA's below, and real good support on the NASDAQ around 2850+ (currently still just below 4000 , has the most to drop, potentially, S.T.) I am also seeing some more S.T. triple-tops forming among extended NASDAQ stocks given you recently in setion (3) as new Puts.... Remember, most Indexes have been rolling-toppy, since last December....step back, gain some perspective, see the parabolas among Techs, and the big falls among 'defensive/old-line company stocks', simultaneously....There is no way the Techs, and the extended Asian and Latin/foreign stocks can continue their parabolic rises....Actually, very few have risen much since late last December, in reality, even though 'the Media' continues to puff them....Maybe just more 'sucker more people in them up here' pops will occur in some of them....But after having already had many of the tax-selling bounces I gave you herein, among depresseds, from late last year (which "the 95 %" have missed anyway), the vast majority of institutions have already shifted their managed money (late, as usual), from 'old-line', to 'parabolic new paradigm' stocks....so, what would be most unexpected, would be bigger drops still coming among many parabolic Techs....Last, as I said, we are entering a normally historically weaker period of the year, Feb. through Aug., for stocks....hence the '1/2 position' issues in section (3) below ....Last, I again have NO clear pattern-opinion on the T-bond....and some Q, S, losses in Utilties herein this time around....No damage....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7).... and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:1) note the predicted pullback after everyone got bullish, in the T-bond already....of course, this also has threatened our Banks and Utilities.... 2) I added more extended Japan/Asian stocks in section (7) below as potential Puts....gosh, if you could see how many 'parabolics off bases from last year' there are now, a record number....look out below in them ? ....3) and, added some depressed Retail, Clothing, Leisure, Homebuilding-related, stocks, in section (6) below....it may still be a bit early for some of them, but, as usual, when they bounce, we will be among the first/very few to have them.... most are likely to be EVB's, more than 'bases'.... 4) hey, recall how I specifically said here, how, the very moment the Media and Analysts began to over-bash AMZN, it was already down, and holding support ? gee, I didn't even notice it has bounced nicely since....normal....

5) got requests recently about the depressed Grocery stocks, and, by me, they are still not ready yet, but I hope to catch their EVB's ahead....I am also seeing Railroad stocks getting ridiculously cheap, as with some Banks, but we prefer to use their charts here, over their assumed 'fundamentals/PE's', because, as you have seen, a stock of a co. losing tons of $ can skyrocket, while a stock of a L.T. succcessful co. at a low PE, can still plummet....NO "links" ! Most "Food" stocks will eventually also set up, but must base, first ....6) while I remain longer-term bullish on the Golds, after pullback, several of our depresseds have rallied to their previous resistance levels, and must breakout again to higher levels, or their bases will elongate again....which does NOT look immediate, yet.... 7) again, I was perfect buying the Oil Service stocks at both, their 1998 and 1999 lows, and perfect catching their initial drops off the following highs, for you herein, and absolutely wrong the last time, putting them, not thinking Crude could get over the mid-20's....today, at over $ 30. bbl., I see no tradable pattern in Crude, and have no idea what will happen next, except to say, I was also the first/only to have also given out the Intl. Oils as puts herein for you, before their recent drops, INTO a continued unpredicted-by-me rise in Crude, and few Oil Service stocks have made big new rises, which is very interesting from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v. What is important, again, is that you did well, in 5 out of 6 very profitable stocks-price-move predictions from me herein, in this I.G., over two+ years....and you hopefully learned, not only the repeating chart patterns, but also, that what the stocks do, is often NOT 'linkable' to what its underlying fundamental items do, yes ? a good lesson always....but the higher recent rise in Crude was totally not predicted/expected by me....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Joe Kernan, Thu., 11:25 am, showed chart of "CIEN", a stock I specifically gave as a put, herein, mid-1998, when CNBC and everyone else loved it, then, as an EVB near following lows, when CNBC and everyone else hated it, saying they would go out of business (remember ?), and, now, at new highs, he menbtions it bullishly....dig ? the pattern never changes.... 2) latest MONEY mag. cover, "the hottest stock market ever", should also scare you....chronicling, among other things, 3 guys who made a mint on QCOM, and, whom, evidently, had already given back 40 % of their gains by the time the issue came to press, dig ? no stops, no protection, no diversification....great example for others, ay ? not....just luck, as I said.... 3) talk about lack of perspective, Thu., CNBC"s Tom Costello, incorrectly said, "RCNC stock is getting punished for not beating street estimates today...." Gee, Tom, it is up from $ 10. to 70. in less than a year, yes ? exactly how is it "getting punished" ? ....4) 2/5, L.A. Times, front-page, chart/article on "ORTL", with, as usual, a prabolic rise, and a glowing fundamental report, only after the big stock rise....the pattern rarely changes.... 5) L.A. Times 2/12, late (as usual) headlione, "Dow drops 218: now in 'correction.'" Printed, of course, just as the Indexes bottom, real-short-term, get it ? Their headline should have read, 'has been in a correction', yes ? because of recent years' abberative index/parabolic moves among a small number of stocks, a drop of just more than 10 % is now considered a 'correction'....but 2/3 of ALL stocks are down a TON more than that in the last 2-3 years, yes ? so, 'the market' has BEEN in a correction, since then, right ? shouldn't they have mentioned this ? How misleading and incomplete is the Times' coverage (again) ?

6) I love it....the L.A. Times, 2/12, headlined, "Dow sinks on renewed interest rate worries"....oh, really....exactly what kind of supposed 'link', they did not mention....nor, how it ROSE a bunch, for a long time, AS rates also rose ....yadda, yadda....same pattern by them as always....Also, a couple of months ago, they reported that stocks ROSE on such worries, right ? But, am I missing something here, or, isn't the supposed-suggested "govt. buyback of trasury securities" bullish, not bearish, if one like such 'fundamental' factors ? Oy.... don't get me started....Then, they compounded their ignorance, by writing, "one positive sign in the broad market....was that trading volume was down from recent levels - suggesting there was no panic selling." Little do they know how low extended stocks can fall with seemingly 'low' volume.... 7) an excellent, long, two-part article in the L.A. Times, 2/13, titled, "Medical Miracles or Misguided Media ? Inexperienced reporters and Overeager editors....Overdose of Optimism ?", illuminated at length, exactly as I have been saying all along, how "the Media" touts just about anything even remotely 'new' as cures, in their exaggerated claims....JUST TO CREATE 'GRABBER' or shocking 'news' STORIES they can then show on TV, in print, etc., to sell mags/papers, etc., etc. Kudos for the Times for running this 'anti-them' story....obviously, they must often feel pressure to 'be the first' with such trumped-up stories, but I say, perhaps the money expended on Media coverage of 'created stories' in Medicine, could be spent ON helpIng to cure the diseases, yes ? Of course, studies have shown that less tha half the $ raised for research has actually gone TO the research itself, but don't get me started ....Just be aware, "PSYCLE-wise", that the vast majority of Media messages are incorrect, misleading or slanted....as usual....but actual stock-price 'charts and volume figures' cannot be manipulated much at all....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) I read recently, that The great Gordon Moore, Intel, is now saying his own "Moore's Law" (which says, generally, that copmputing speed will double every 18 months) is likely to reach its limits ahead, soon....interesting, huh, while "the 95 %" remain parabolically bullish forever here....watch out.... 2) please note, dichotomous moves, where the 'stock' moved opposite the reported 'earnings' recently (one up, the other down, and vice-versa), as I teach: IM, LTR, HPC, WMI., FMO, MDC, etc. All have rising "OBV's", and earnings, yet most stocks fell big, into higher earnings, for months now....'IM' rose, as its eps fell....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers:1) CNBC, Thu., 9:20 am, finally had mgr. of Van Eck Gold Fund (late, as usual), who, obviously, loves Gold stocks, like, HM and MDG....he also echoed my belief that there is something behind thos L.T. move, fundamentally.... 2) Thu., around $ 14., Deustche bank finally went bullish on our "ODP", raising estimates, etc. Right at its' 200 DMA....oy....normal stage 2 behavior, yes ? compunding their 'lateness', they also initiated a 'strong buy' on PMCS, way up here at $ 290 or so, with a target- get this- of only $ 325....gee, why do this at all, dig ? Ditto, them, with "VTSS" around $ 56, target only $ 70....God forbid they find something truly depressed, ay ? ....3) Mon., 10:50 am, CNBC's Joe Kernan highlighted a new buy on "APH", from DLJ, at $ 70+....please view its 1-2-year-past chart, and see where I added APH in its nice saucer base, a while ago much lower, when no analysts liked it....the pattern rarely changes....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) ....

As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....