1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Gee, Friday's new drops in Techs surprised even me...."NT" , a recent QSL, got whacked more, spreading to others I have also not liked, but it did affect a few of our depresseds a bit....but, this should be the last drop into the bottom area for tons of Techs, with market closed Mon., by 'after the first hour or two Tues.' ....so I am looking forward to deploying more of substantial cash balances all around, soon....

So, been playing it cool, awaiting more longside buys, and getting more Puts regardless....as you know, I was real hot for weeks, now less so, so we are due to improve again soon, as usual....note how more depresseds, and more 'names/quality' Techs, are pulling back to buyable levels again in section (3), expect more buys soon there....remember, more and more people are giving up, and over this weekend, sentiment should be closer to bottomy levels....and I expect to see some 'fobd's' here again in Techs....

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) the pattern rarely changes: Wed. 8:38, CNBC had two major B-firm Util. analysts on, one who having been wrong liking PCG and EIX during recent decline, still clinging to them long, and the other, now liking NI, AYE, ORN, which, as usual, are already up, and near resistance here, get it ? .... 3) will I, again, end up being the first to give out some extended Food stocks as Puts at recent highs herein for you ? ....4) I will also take credit for being among the very few, at recent 'bounce highs when the 95 % were just beginning to get S.T. bullish, late, as usual', herein, that optimism for more Fed rate cuts, would lead to disappointments and pullbacks soon, which we now see, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....

5) with expected here bounces in Semi. Equip. stocks, many Chipmakers stocks might bottom also soon ? many are not even likely to revisit their recent lows again for a while....just as Wall St. abandons them, after loving them at highs....the pattern rarely changes.... 6) note pullbacks among Steels.... 7) the AMEX 'networking' index shows pot. double-bottom, as more of my recommended Techs bounce and/or pullback to pot. support....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) of course, CNBC only had pres. of FLWS on, Wed. a.m., CNBC trying to pitch the stock as 'valentines buy play', dig ? amazing....FLWS has already risen from 2 1/2 to 6 1/2, get it ? late....the pattern rarely changes....next.... 2) CNBC's new 'foreign markets stocks' overemotional reporter-gal, Wed. 8:35 exclaimed EVERY stock she covered as if it was MASSIVE price change....oy, saying, "ASML has been a VERY volatile stock lately, down 3.5 % today"....uh, gee, down from 150 to 30 was somehow NOT 'volatile' ? please re-read my bBooklets....oy....

3) the CNBC gal overemotional OTC reporter, Tue., was exclaimning all day about as supposed 'new all-time low' in ORCL stock - which, of course, was not true, and gave us a pot. buyable price signal, yes ? ....4) and, Wed. at close, Tom Costello, trying incorrectly to pan it, said, "and a new all-time 52-week low in BRCM, looks lower....", which while also being misleading also helped our long buy herein, yes ?

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1)1/22/01, the pres. of VERT exercised an option and bought 36,000 shs. at - get this - 20 cents per....nice system, huh .... 2) economist Ed Hyman, on CNBC, Tue., 8:58, ISI, real negative, citing, DRAM prices still lower, now down - 90 % from their 1/99 peak prices, Lumber making new 9-year low, 'no growth anywhere', etc.... 3) I still cannot believe they are letting CHV merge with TX, and AOL with TWX, etc., sorry, but are not good for the world.... 3) pres. of SHRP, on CNBC, Thu. 8:55, just gushing, along with Ted David, 3 straight great years 'fundamentally' - yet its STOCK, not that much higher, dig ? ditto with BKST....proving once again no direct 'links'.... 4) the PPI came out Fri., much higher than 'the 95 %' expected, but not us, ay ? I have been chronicling higher prices in all sorts of products for a while now....economists who have been incorrect all along are calling the reading 'fluky', and analysts are trying to 'link' these numbers to pot. Fed rate moves soon....good luck, we'll stay with the chart and sentiment patterns....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) CSFB finally downgraded INTC, TXN, BRCM, Tuesday - after lkoving them from highs, as usual....and tons of firms only lowered opinions on AMAT, after close Tues. - at low....ditto....the pattern rarely changes....FYI, AMAT has a base at recent lows, yes ? ....2) conversely, many firms recently fell in love with WFMI, which, of course, formed H & S top and got whacked.... 3) Richard Band, mass-mailing-backed supposed market-guy whose real, L.T. T.R. we wish he would show (don't get me started), citing unpredicted-by-him huge drops in old-line stocks like, RAD, JCP, LU, XRX, KO, MSFT, says, "what's next ? it's not the end, but merely the beginning.... and I fully believe it's going to get much worse....it's not the end, but merely the changing of the guard....most investors don't have a clue...." Interestingly, he now loves an extended Drug, Nat. Gas, softeware, insur. co., stocks up here to buy....hmmmm, sounds to me like those others he just panned near their lows, when THEY were loved near highs, yes ? we shall see, i wish his people well, but I'd buy depressed only....

4) the Robinson-Stephens "tech. conf." 2/11+ this week, has a lot of companies "explaining why they have been so wrong", the Media says...."take out your hankies" articles say....tough toenails, I say....why execs who can RUN and grow (at least temporarily) great businesses, STILL never seem to comprehend PSYCLES, for parabolics, etc., patterns, is beyond me - but, as I have said for decades, they never learn - but that does not mean I don't massively repect their efforts and abilities, which I do not have....I am just saying, EVERY single I.G. goes through this over time, yet people never seem to learn the progressive phases well enuf for more managers/owners to prevent super-harm after the falls....that said, note, as the vast majority of 'expert (overpaid) analysts' (sic) begin to go negative, at least Wed., most Techs bouncing, get it ?

5) and add JDSU and WFMI, to the long list of depr. stocks major firms finally downgraded at lows....the pattern rarely changes.... 6) as most every analyst who liked it tons higher and all the way down, is now saying AMZN is a 'penny stock' in major publications, we add it again, as I alone did last time, from 14 to 22, pot. double-bottom, we shall see....fundamentally, they are still 'cash-flow positive'.....hmmmmm....close stop anyway, still.... 6) Thu., an analyst who loved MRCH at highs, all way down, etc., finally lowered his rating to 'neutral', saying, "it is my lowest rating" ....yikes....'neutral' is his lowest rating ? huge losses along the way w/o stops ? don't get me started....anyway, my biggest loss ever last year, but formed a s.t. base and doubled, now probable double-bottom, as i will fade the analysts....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) hey get this: Wed. CNBC's weather-guy reported that Nov./Dec. was the COLDEST in a LONG time, for northeast states ! gee, where is that supposed 'global warming' ? next.... 2) and B4 you get too excited about any 'tax cut' polan from our ignorant pols, realize that because $ used for tax cuts will not be used to pay down debt, yearly interest costs may actually increase $ 400 billion during the period ahead....making a 1-1/2 B. cost to the govt., a $ 2 B. cost, dig ? and that's B4 the special-interests get involved....don't get me started.... while I am all for lower taxes (if real, and across the board with no shanigans), but this looks like a no-win for us....

3) is this huge ? ": let me be among the first few to mention that, contrary to most everything said and proferred, California's fical year ending 6/30/01 projects a DEFICIT, as doe stheir predictions for 2002 - and NOT a 'surplus', which the pols are telling 30 mm people will bail out our Utilities.... surprise....his projected deficit for 6/01 to 6/02 is - $ 3.5 Billion, as a possiblye strike in HLYWD. joins dot-com come-downs, and elec. crisis, and the natl. recession, etc., dig ? There WAS a surplus of $ 9.4 billion before Y2K....but being spent as we speak, before elec. crisis, hope they don't dissipate that 'cushion'.... 4) and speaking of misleading public political and Media output, big article in recent L.A.T. about how Hollywood's reported receipts movie numbers/amounts are fiction....I could write a volume on this historical fact, but suffice it to say, when I was at EFH, special L.P.'s for movies created some of the biggest blockbuster grossing movies of all-time in the early 1980's, and not one partnership paid a dime back to investors - because they 'showed' a 'loss'....don;t get me started....plus, of course, the industry 'says' a movie is profitable, in the Media, but, then, for its accountants and the IRS, it shows losses....a LOT of the time....

5) re: poss. govt. repeal of estate/death taxes: Insur. co's. don't want it, dig ? nor do charities, because they might lose some donations....see ? there are always special-interest groups for/against each item....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....