1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) SUN is up, could ASH be next ? ....2) note, added more REIT's in section (6) below for you.... 3) CNBC's M.C. Cabrera, Tue., 10:35 am, correctly reported, on Steel stocks getting some props, improving fundamentals, depressed bounces, etc., correctly mentioning the word 'rotation', so kudos to her.... 4) looks like some Food stocks have indeed bottomed....we were the first/only to add herein for you, yes ? not too sexy, but perhaps their calls will have lower premiums, making it easier to do well if we are correct.... 5) are we the first/only to call S.T. top among extended Japan stocks ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Tue., 10 am, CNBC's BIll Griffeth, tried to 'grab' at a headline, misleadingly said, "the NASDAQ has been getting clobbered today...." Excuse me ? 'clobbered' ? since when is 90 points, on a 4400 index, 'clobbered'.... 2) CNBC's Bob Pisani, Tue., 10:10 am, mentioning beaten-down Chem., Drug, Cap. Goods, Retail, etc. stocks (you know, the companies 'the 95 %' are now calling, "old-line economy stocks"), negatively, saying, "nobody cares any more about these, there are no turnaround stories, no fundamentals...." Hmmm, "PSYCLE sm" stage 7, S.T. ahead ? ....3) CNBC's David Faber, Tue., 10:15 am, posited, "Goodbye Golden Touch ....Is the Magic Gone for Warren Buffett ?", correctly cited his lack of effect, which BTW, I am proud to have the the first/only to have predicted for you herein, when I told you to short BRK/B at its highs....only now, after his stock is already much lower, of course, he reports negatively on it, get the pattern ? rarely changes....anyway, one analyst has upgraded BRK/B....citing, that BRK/B had added/bought DNB, JNY, LIZ, C., albeit near last Fall/Winter's highs in them.... each of which is down since, anyway....so I don't get it....you know, I wrote/called Mr. Buffett twice in recent years, offering my services and help to him, but, of course, got ignored and treated badly, his sec'y was not very nice on the phone....so much for their rep....
5) Business 2.0 mag., Feb. issue, VG article by Robert H. Frank, "Stop the information infatuation", subheadline: "watch CNBC all day long and you'll knoiw a lot. But it won't make you any money." Cool.... Kudos, I will try to get to him....He wrote, "Finl. data reported by mainstream Media were once mercifully simple and brief, but now, even on general news segments, we are bombarded with details tonce considered too technical even for seasoned industry pros." Right on....He also pointed out, as I was the first to teach, that many items often slantedly-reported as 'positive/negative', should be automatically interpreted by viewers/readers as such....He asked, for instance, "when we learn that durable goods orders were expected to rise 2.2 % but actually rose only 2.1 %, then are corrected later, to reflect 2.3 %, exactly what are we suppoosed to do ?" Excellent....He also writes, "what's troubling with the obsession with such numbers is that it is all almost surely a collosal waste of time and effort....any RELEVANT info. changes prices before most of us ever even hear about it." "More than 90 % of all (auto) drivers believe thay are above avg., but this is staistically impossible...." Boy, this guy is gonna love my stuff, ay ? case closed....re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets....
6) Wed., CNBC's Bill Griffeth finally reported story, "worldwide glut of Sugar might be negative for some countries", late, of course, only after Sugar has ALREADY fallen to lows, dig ? the pattern rarely changes....It is early, but, as with all previous such reports/patterns, look for Sugar to base ahead, then rise a bit, before the analysts/Media even notice it, as usual....a gal from REFCO said it will keep falling at least till late April....we shall see....we were not told her L.T. track record, nor even shown a L.T. chart of Sugar....how incomplete is that, by the Media ? the only semi-pure Sugar 'stock', is "IHK", but no base there yet....and, maybe "DOL", which you had....if you viewed a multi-decade chart of Sugar, you would be looking to buy, ahead, L.T., just FYI....You know, low sugar prices pretty-much only hurts some Foreign countries, and actually helps our Food companies, yes ? ....7) L.A. TImes, 2/13, Tom Petruno listed recently-declined big-name stocks as "the weak get weaker", saying, "investors who attempt to bottom-fish have generally been socked with more losses this year..." God forbis he would mention stop--losses, diversification, I.G. rotation, and buying puts near their highs --- as I have offered to teach him, for months now....thansk for nothing, guy....Oh, the stocks he specifically listed in his box as "nowhere near a bottom", were/are: LMT, HLT, SBC, HNZ, F, MCD, FNM, BAC, ALL, BMY....so, of course, while I do not like these mainly, vs. other depressed stocks given you herein, watch for most of these he gave as 'no chance', to bottom and bounce ahead, dig ? Fading this guy has been fruitful the last 1- 2 years....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) Tues., Intl. Oil. Co. "BPA" announced records earnings --- as Crude rises further --- and its stock, which I was the first/only to give out as a put at its obvious rolling top pattern, to you herein, fell even further....neat, huh....L.A. Times, Mon., reported, "the U.S. also announced 'record low gasoline inventories', 9-year highs on Gas prices, ahead of the 'driving season', and suggest a summer gas supply crisis." and, late, as usual, finally, CNBC highlighted this I.G., Tues., 9:15 am, so, now that they are negative on the Intl. Oil stocks, watch for a S.T. bottom ? The ignornant CNBC reporter then compunded the misleadingness, by actually saying, "of course, with crude prices up even more, analysts will have to raise their profit expectations for year 2000, for these companies, increasing the stock values of these companies..." uh, excuse me ? Their stock prices have FALLEN, even WITH the very situation he now suggests might be bullish ! amazing, huh....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers:1) they may be right, but Merrill just added AAPL up here as a new super-buy....real late, ay ? so, we remain Puttable.... 2) Business Week, 2/21, "Tiger, Tiger, burning dim", recounts what I told you twice before here, that Julian Robertson's once-amazingly-huge and-previously-very-successful Tiger Hedge fund's performance fell further, -19 % in 1999, and, lost another -6.4 % so far in Jan. 2000....BW specifically mentioned their huge holding in U.S. Air stock....What I noticed, is that this supposedly super-sophisticated co., failed to use good technical analysis or stops or proper diversification, with "U" stock, right ? Gosh, I wish I could get to these guys, I could really help them....anyone getting me his direct phone or e-mail address, gets a free subscription to this NL....article said 20 analysts have left his organization....they could use me, ay ? ....3) BW, same issue, "Will the Boom need Bucks ?", a big J.P. Morgan guy suggests the rubber-band is nearly stretched as much as possible with recent years' tech. and cap. spending boom....He says "a triple-squeeze lies ahead for cap. spending, due to capacity growth, labor stess, higher I.R.'s, and growing depreciation expenses for corporations...." He also pointed out that, even given huge 'reported' earnings rises among Tech.. companies, "domestic earnings continue to erode, making the U.S. vulnerable to an economic slowdown"....Just another p.o.v for you....
4) similarly, BW mag. 2/14 issue, "The Risk that Boom might turn to Bust", says (fundamentally) that the Tech. sector, now enjoying economies of scale, has huge, ingrained, very high, initial, and ongoing, fixed capital costs....and, any slowing of sales growth at all, will hit them all hard, on top of any potential Foreign-country problems/ situations....And, that "the strength of the Tech. sector is covering up growing vulnerabilities, like fickle consumer spending, income, high debt levels, and increased dependence on Foreign money." He also cited vastly increased stock margin debt, and increased corporate debt borrowing, rising foreign trade deficits, also vulnerable in a downturn....But, look, none of this has mattered so far in the ridiculous rises of Techs, right ? For the umpteenth time, this is one reason why I eschew most 'fundamentals'....but wanted to give you BW's take.... 5) Wed., noon, RJF's Ralph Bloch, bearish for many months already, did point out recent weakness among, HD, WMT, MSFT, GE, AXP, threatening their 'necklines' (as I have been telling you herein to watch for).... 6) on CNBC, Wed., 12:50 pm, mgr. of Waddell & Reed Tech. Fd., loves, BVSN, ARBA, VIGN, NT, JDSU, BRCM, JNPR, CTXS, INCY, up here for new buys....yikes....most are on my puttables list, check them out in their parabolas....
e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) brief follow-up on this item from last NL: L.A. Times' treatise on how "industry Journals and publications set agendas on coverage and reporting of Medical items....Fact or Fad ?" Often sensationalizing and/or reporting things as 'facts', or supposed 'breakthroughs', often without proper research, which, often, become future 'fads', and/or damaging to the country, etc. Sure, you know this, but, again, is nice that a major newspaper illuminates a story which is partly, actually self-criticizing....They wrote that "many doctors rely on these published stories/studies for unbiased info., but that findings have often been influenced by the profit motives of the research sponsors could adversely affect the lives of their patients." wow.... 2) according to Business 2.0 mag., Feb. issue, while "holders of common stocks among people earning less than $ 10 K. a year, rose + 88 % from 1989 and 1995, the % of people earning over $ 100 K. a year holding stocks, actually DECLINED slightly, between 1989 and 1995....what do you make of that ? Certainly, the rise of smallish day-web-traders, etc. Oh, and, just FYI, the number of stocks traded on the NYSE and NASDAQ rose about 100 % from 1980 to 1997....
Last, the editor of the N.E. J.of M. said, "when a study says that 'someone who drinks alcohol has a 30 % increase in risk for cancer', it sounds like a big increase....But if you look at what it actually means for the avg. person, whose chance of developing cancer in the next 10 years might be only 3 % in fact anyway, to start with, a 30 % increase would change that risk (only) from 3 % to 4 % (get it ?). That means the chance of 'remaining free of cancer' has only dropped from 97 % to 96 %....Is that worth giving up one dinner drink of wine for ? probably not." Excellent...she talks and thinks as I and my "PSYCLE sm" do....Please re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets....this is another good lesson in 'perspective' for you....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:
(I neglected to show 'percentage gains' here last time, so some are repeats of those) stock LWN (1/2 - to 1 3/8) for L.T. 175% G....calls ODP (10- to 14) for VQ 111% Gain....1/2 pos. puts AXP (168 to 145-) for VQ 100% G....bal. puts MMM (102 to 83) for VQ 100% G....puts EXPD (42+ to 37) for VVQ 80% G....bal. calls SQM (28+ to 34++) for L.T. 90% G....bal. stock VCR (2- to 3+) for 66% G....1/2 pos. puts GUC (116 to 92+) for VVQ 75% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. HEB (6+ to 9+) for L.T. 75% G ....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BL (14 to 17-) for 40% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. HUM (6- to 9+ to 7-) for small % L.T. G...
and/but, longs, KSE, CNS, JCP, CAN, DLX, ATHM ?, MCK, FAF, EC, TWA ?, RPD ?, HA ?, GHV, WMI (14+ to 18+ to 14), and, puts, ADCT, CRA, NXLK, EMC, KLAC ?, ARBA ?, NEON ?, PIOS, CDO ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....but, still too many Q, S, losses....and still too many (?) patterns....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
note, more 'quality' issues....
"Repeats": ALI. @ 5+, 1/2 pos. AMTD @ 15+, ASH @ 31+, ATHM @ 33+ ?, AZC @ 0.70, BAMM ?, BBC @ 6++, BDX @ 24+, BGO @ 5/8, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, CMX @ 4.06, CNS ?, DAY @ 0.07, DOL @ 14+, FAF @ 12-, FAX @ 5, FIX @ 7-, FSS @ 15+, FTL @ 1 3/4, FTR @ 2 9/16, GV @ 5/16, JBM @ 3--, LPX @ 11+, LUV @ 15+, NCS @ 14+, NHI. @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OCN ?, OH @ 2 11/16, OWC @ 14 1/8, PDQ @ 7++, PMC @ 8, RAD @ 7 1/8, RDL @ 3, RPD @ 2 1/8, SAH @ 8-, SAMC @ 5 1/2, SFI. @ 17+, SMU @ 5+, SSRI. @ 1 9/32, SVRN @ 7+, TMG @ 4 13/16, TR @ 30-, TVX @ 0.75, WNC @ 13+...."buy (only) low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, WSO, SVU, CF, ANF, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) 1/2 pos. BVSN @ 186, 1/2 pos. CWP @ 67, EMC @ 117+, MC @ 287+, 1/2 pos. MOLX @ 54+, 1/2 pos. MRX @ 49+, NXTL @ 129, PRGN @ 93+, SCNT @ 90-, 1/2 pos. UVN @ 108, VIGN @ 218-, 1/2 pos. VO @ 63, (br>
"Repeats": AAPL @ 118++, ACTU @ 48-, ADRX @ 72++, ARBA @ 216, BVSN @ 187, CMC @ 33+, EXDS @ 128+, EXTR @ 99+, FCS @ 38+, KSU @ 76-, MAN @ 38-, MCHP @ 69+, MWD @ 68, NYT @ 48-, ORCL @ 62, RNWK @ 93, TEVA @ 75, TMPW @ 155, XLK @ 56-....
and/but, took, ASMI, OIL, PWAV, VRSN, BGEN, LRCX, SEPR, GLW, BJ, VOXX, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", CBG, OMI, NOW, USV, REV, NR, CNF, ETYS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, INRS, HNCS, CCU, NTLI, TLCM, TFSM, XLA, PXCM, ENGA, GPS, HIT, DCLK, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
LWN 1 1/2 up 11/16 (S), VDC 2 3/4 up 3/8, OWC 16 5/16 up 2 1/16, LAN 5 5/8 up 7/8, IMR 11 7/8 up 1 3/8, MUEI. 12 1/2 up 2, OO. 7 5/16 up 11/16, FIX 8 1/4 up 7/8, BL 17 1/8 up 1 5/8, TGI. 29 up 2 5/8 (sos), MRA 16 3/4 up 1 1/4, IM 15.44 up 1, DOL 17- up 1, VISX 26 9/16 up 1 1/2, MNY 30 up 1 3/8, NCS 15 3/4, HCN 15 5/16, SUN 25 1/4, SVRN 8 3/32, CONV 11 1/2, ASH 32 1/4, BPP 10 3/16, LUV 16.44, TMG 5 1/2, ASHW 5.40, higher, since last time here .... notice how ODP, FCH, PPDI, RTHM, hit their 200 DMA....and, BPP, EX, are approaching their 200 DMA....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: FTR 3 up 1/2, ATHM 36- up 3, NBL 23 up 1 1/2, DDS 19.06 up 1, BDX 25 3/4 up 1 5/8, LWN 7/8, DHI. 11 5/8, 12 1/2, DOL 15 1/2, JEF 23 3/4, MUEI. 11 1/2, ASH 31 1/2, CONV 9 5/8, DDS 17 13/16, IOM 3 13/16, PDQ, WNC, XRX, DAY, WDC, CMX, WEL, RAD, BMG, BMC, ECO, BGO, NCI., MHR, GAP, VGZ, GV, TOK, OCN, AMTD, WDC, VBAC, GRL, RPM, MHX, HEB, HMY, ZMAX, NHR, HRC, CKR, RPD, LPX, OH, SMU....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, get it ? those below must really strengthen or else....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) this list has been growing lately....FAF, BDX, AMTD, CBJ, FAX, DDS, TR, RAD, JEF, MHX, AIN, SMU, ATHM, MSN, RPM, MHR, CMX, BAMM, PDQ, NHI., RPD, LMM, KRY, PMC, RPD, NCI, GAP, OCN, WCC....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out: still giving you plenty more decliners, read them carefully: VIGN -19, MC -20, TMPW -14, NXTL -11 1/2, +2, BVSN -9, PRGN -9, AXP +8, -14, EXTR -8, +4, -3, HHH -9, CTS -9, SCNT -6 1/2, BHC -6, SFE -6, GUC -5, CWP -5 1/2, WON -5, OMC -5, EXDS -5, ETM -4 1/2, RNWK -4 1/2, +2, -10, +3, UVN -3 1/2, EMC -4, NXLK -3, MOLX -4 1/2, MHP -3, ACTU -2, FCS -2, NYT -2 1/4, CMCSK -3, VO -3 1/2, MWD -2 1/2, BRW -2 1/2 (sow), DY -1, MGM -1, UMG -1, XLK -1, KLAC -1, MRX -1, TNE, lower since last NL....and, GUC, AXP, approaching their 200 DMA (sow)....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (BDX, RAD, HRC, CMX, etc.)
Prec. Metals (CAU, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, CCH, SSRI, PAAS, etc., longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, SFI, NHR, NHI., NNN, DDR, GTA, ARI., GRT, KRC, CBG, PAG, BPP, BTR, ALI., etc.) (also some Housing-related stocks, below)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, DDS, HMY, OO, SRR, RDL, CNS)
Energy (SUN, ASH, NBL, GOU, etc.)
Financials/Banks (JEF, OCN, XRX, AMTD, SCH, etc.)....
* plus, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, Funeral, stocks, down the road....and, longer-term, some Food, Grocery, Railroads/Trans., Steels, Cap. Goods, Auto-relateds....
I am also noting more 'busted consumer goods' stocks below....like, SOC, REV, FTL, HMY, etc. ?
and I am still watching some Utilities....
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed just above/below, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market....note, the vast majority of stocks are "repeats" each issue....if you just view "some" each day, in a few days, you will have seen all of them, and culled the best-looking ones, saving you much time and effort, yes ? it's up to you....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, to, CONV, SMU, TVX, JOB, BWL/A, RDL, MSN, XCL, NCI, NCS, IM, LAN, to,
also, "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....add, VISX, ETYS, CNC, EFX, HM, WGR, PTX, PNW, NFS, URI, CNF, TOM, PKS, IMR, DTE, FMT, HGR, HCN, ALI., BGC, SVRN, NFS, SRS, X., to, CGX, LII., OWC, ASL, HBI., SCS, DROOY, NGH, BSX, USL, AIN, FSS, HII, DHI., MUEI, WDC, HS, RPM, FAX, PLSIA, MRA, SAH, TIE, TR, UCI, TSA, WNC, IO, SGI, AN, LUB, MNY, TEI, PCP, BYX, OMI, NOW, CKR, ATHM, CHKE, SFI, AVL, SRE, LUV, BDX, GSR, JBM, OH, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, was/is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, ACTU, BVSN, CCU, FCS, ENE, HIT, MC, MWD, NYT, INRS, ITWO, MOLX, ORBK, NXTL, PLT, PME, PRGN, PSWT, PRRC, PXCM, PSIX, ROIA, TNE, TLCM, USAI, UVN, VIGN, VO, VPHM, XLA, to, KSU, ADRX, JDSU, NTLI, TMPW, TEVA, SCMR, XLK, CCU, PLCM, EXDS, LMG/A, UMG, HNCS, SILK, GNET, NEON, CDWC, ENGA, EXTR, PTEL, PXCM, ZBRA, MRX, ETA, MOT, SFE, VNWK, SSTI, VITR, RNWK, DISH, CCN, MDP, ARBA, AAPL, VIA, OMC, BHC, HHH, DIGL, MAN, ORCL, IMN, CTS, MDY, MGM, TSCC, TV, TSM, TFSM, from recent past NL's,
and, are, NXLK, GLW, 'fakeout breakouts' as well ?
* Just view some charts, and if stock is now near its high, without having broken above its topping pattern, it remains a Puttable here and now, right ?
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Retail, Foreign, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: I just received a new copy of the 2,000+ pages of Value Line stocks book.... another overrated supposed 'future-stock-price-predictive' approach, whose supposed 'L.T. track record' is O.K., but just plain not correct, and certainly nowhere near as great as they advertise (why doesn't someone publicize this ? don't get me started), though it has been an occasionally valuable 'fundamental' resource, and I applaud their 'raw information' on companies, stocks, etc....You should know I have tons of actual historical proof, from over the years, that, many of their 'ranked # 1 and 2 by them' stocks, have fallen in price, a lot, BEFORE they lower(ed) their rankings, and many 'ranked # 4 or 5 by them' stocks, have risen (many which I had given out near lows) a lot, BEFORE they raised their rankings....
I point this out herein (again), because someone has to tell the truth, or at least another version of the truth, and, NO concept is truly valuable that does not provide for 'stop-losses' and/or acting before price moves....Of course, in recent years only, a bunch of stocks added near their highs as # 1 or # 2 by them, have continued much higher, but VL has not been exceptional in that respect, compared to other NL's which have done the same thing anyway....Many people feel VL falls short, in not taking gains near highs, not stopping or protecting positions, and hardly ever buying low....Because they use a 'momentum model', hey are ALWAYS most bullish only after big rises, and bearish only after big declines before rises....TONS of $ 1. to 5. stocks I have added in my NL when VL ranked them a 4 or 5, have become today's # 1 or 2 issues, like, many busted Techs, Semis, Software, Trans., etc. stocks....I have a whole file in my office of such issues as proof over the years....
This said, you should know, for the first time in years, their 'overall estimated appreciation potential % rises for the next 3-5 years' number, is the lowest (and therefore least attractive from here) I can remember....Lower than in 1987....pointing to how overvalued many stocks are here....FYI, the lowest (most bearish) number VL has ever had, was in April 1998....to their credit, before a drop in the DOW from 9600 to 7500, remember ? Of course, they remained bearish, as many issues rose again, but let's not go there....so, now, perhaps VL and I agree on something here....heed our warning on the Extended stocks....They currently rank Semis, Techs, Computer-related, Telecoms, Internet, Advert., Elec., stocks, their highest up here....with no stops....I ask, why, since their 'appreciation potentials' are so low....remember, they hated them neartheir lows not too long ago....
Last, their list of 'widest discounts to book value' list, is full of depressed stocks I kinda like, like, Steels, Clothing, Retail, Textile, Housing, Machinery, Restaurant, Insur., Office, Metals, Industrial, Utility, 'old-economy' stocks ....most all currently ranked # 4 or 5 by them....and several on my list in section (6) above, dig ? one's patience may be rewarded in them....and, after when/if they rise a bunch, look for them to then be ranked # 1 or 2, by VL, right ? As with the Horsey charts, I tend to try toget one VL trial every year or two, just to make sure my opinions are correct in the main, and for perspective....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....