1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Isn't it logical that things should go back and forth, over time, from more Longs winning and some Puts losses, to more Puts winning and some Long losses ? I gave you two previous profitable trading passes, among Oil Services....and one loss-cutting period, only recently....overall, a still profitable I.G. for the NL....Also, recent declines among Puttables brings up the question of whether or not to take Quick gains in the initial, stage 5 drop, or, hold for the larger potential stage 6 drop....I always say, "each to his/her own", on that one....I still tend to take the quickie gain at the bottom of stage 5 among Puts....but, as I say below, the Internets and Online Broker stocks, may have a stage 6 decline ahead of them still....
Though I do wonder if we may not get more "fakeout breakdowns" among our depressed stocks....as usual, we will miss some, but catch many more of them, long, for you....And, for the umpteenth time, note how many Puttables hit their Puttable prices a few times, up and down, over a week or two, allowing you multiple opportunities to catch them....this is another benefit of learning the S.T. stage 4 stage pattern....Last, many "real short-term" drops, may be contained/done, time-cycle-wise, by around the first week of March, as many "time cycles" are do to cluster between the 3rd to the 9th....But, as you know, I do NOT like time-cycles very much, as they have historically tended to be much LESS consistent/effective, than price cycles....Mostly because they almost always lead, or lag, the expected turning point times, which is then no help at all, right ?
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable,
staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm"
patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that
best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR
educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most
Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and
I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and
(5). Very clear sections. You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) obviously, my surmising that some Oil Services stocks might not revisit their lows, in their bases, has not transpired....more are cut/sold, which broke their Nov. lows....but some still remain A.O.K., technically.... 2) once again, I was the first/only to give out another I.G., depressed Gaming/Hotel stocks, as buys, herein, for you, rising in a rough market....neat.... 3) a decent money mgr. on CNBC, Tue. 16th, 9:50 am, said, that the "Precious Metals Sector" has underperformed others, for 11 of the last 15 years, as we know, confirming the importance of only "trading" them, and "using technical pattern timing", over "scenarioizing" and "stories", dig ? ....4) saw L.T. chart of Bombay, India, stock Index, in recent Barron's, and, on a pullback, actually shaping up as a saucer.... most all analysts hate them.... 5) as to the Internets, and Online broker stocks, like DCLK, AMTD, etc., they all show H & S top formations, as I told you of here, a while ago ....I think, given that they may not rise to their "head" top levels again, Do any Puts, off their right shoulders as the recent "high", with a stop above the right-shoulder-high, if at all.... 6) obviously, Copper broke down, and, at this point, Crude actually still looks lower, even allowing for a bounce ? we don't fight the tape....
b) 1) note how "IBI." stock topped, the very time they had that over-reported online Victoria's Secret thing....perfect PSYCLE action, yes ? ....2) also remember whwn I said, here, that "PAYX", being gushed bullish by the Media a while ago, would top ? well, check it out now....3) Wed., the World Gold Council, said that "demand" for Gold rose +6 % last year, to an all-time high....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) cnbc's Ron Insana, Fri. 12th, 12:45, said, "there has been a LOT of volatility in the NASDAQ index recently"....WRONG....The NDX was 110 in Oct. '98, then high 2100 recently....but, it has only been between 2100 and 1900 or so in recent weeks, yes ? hardly "volatile a LOT", right ? Mon. 15th, 9 am, another CNBC reporter said, "the NASDAQ has been INCREDIBLY volatile lately....with records for most points moved in a day...." Again, "points' do NOT translate into percentage moves, as I taught you....they are both WRONG....2) once again, we see how one CANNOT directly try to "link" supposed "bad" fundamentals to a stock price, as, even with a pilot "sick out", AMR stock held up....3) from subs. K.W. (thanks) NY TImes, 2/14, article on "ANF", said, "is shaping up as the retail industry's "it" stock....many experts remain bullish....Goldman, Sachs senior analyst named ANF his favorite stock...." Saying it had the highest profit measures he has ever seen, and Salomon loves it, too. Another, more cautionary analyst, still long nevertheless, said their market segment was too narrow....Hmmmm, we see a potential S.T. "EVT" on this stock, in a relatively toppy I.G., so we'll add it as a "PSYCLE sm" put.... 4) and, CNBC had the pres. of Zale's on, and he also glowed with fundamentals--- with ZLC way up here over 34. (where we Put it), when it was 8. a few years ago, near bankruptcy....now late stage 4....and I mentioned Ross Stores' pres. in last NL here, similarly....Johnson lane also initied coverage of ROST with a "strong buy" up here around 44....more extended Retail stocks.... 5) cnbc had pres. of NetBank on, Wed. 17th, with its stock having risen already from 10 to 66 to 45....still very few profits....just note how they only had him on, AFTER a big stock rise....with the pres. glowing about fundamental prospects.... way too late....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) Sat. 13th, Merrill downgrades "SOL", from "buy" (at 20) to "accumulate" (at 11)....huh ? why not "cut Q, S loss at 18" ?.... 2) Alex, Brown initiates coverage of "SPLN", a stock I mentioned here recently, as a Buy, way up here around 42., up from 7. last Oct., also ridiculously late, yes ?
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
previous short sale", where no puts options existed....
and/but, longs, TDW, TEN, PDS, RIG, NOI., UTI., IIR, HP, DO (all Oil Svc.), CBRL, LWN, LSN, PMK, FLM, TK, SH, JH, and puts, CMCSK, SCMM, SEPR, WCOM, WAG, WMT, MCD, ASO, AMP, CM, for VQ, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio.....and 1/2 pos. stock NETM (3+ to 2++) for L.T. small % loss....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns
are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying
those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less
risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right
? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short
holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(Note: Read again, carefully, for new, "re-added" repeats !!!) ADM @ 15+, AGU @ 8.06, AOI. @ 2 5/8, APAC @ 3 3/4, ARG @ 8+, AZC @ 9/16, BEZ @ 19+, BGO @ 3/4, BHI. @ 17-, BIR @ 4.06, BLM @ 2.06, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CPU @ 10++, CXI. @ 5/16, DRC @ 28+, DSGIF @ 3.06, EAR @ 5/8, ECO @ 1 11/16, FHCC @ 14++, GKI. @ 2 7/8, GLBL @ 5 9/16, HL @ 3 9/16, HLX @ 4 3/8, IMG @ 5 7/16, INPR @ 5-, ISV @ 1 5/16, MKA @ 8+, MLP @ 9+, MT @ 13-, NGX @ 1/2, NWAC @ 23+, OFIS @ 5+, PAM @ 3 9/16, PAR @ 7 1/8, REF @ 6++, RYO @ 0.28, RXSD @ 13-, SAA @ 0.75, SEW @ 3 13/16, SRV @ 16, SSC @ 11/16, SYC @ 12+, TOX @ 3/16, TPS @ 13/16, UBIX @ 5-, VGZ @ 3/16, WCCI. @ 3/4, WEL @ 2.06....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds.... "buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein, countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, KEG, TMO, BD, Z., --- Off the pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips --- either, for straight
Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my
valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still
having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) ADCT @ 41-, AMGN @ 126-, ANF @ 77+, ANSR @ 30-, BJ @ 44, CMB @ 79+, CVS @ 56, KSU @ 46+, MTA @ 30, MTNT @ 50, NT @ 60+, OK @ 45, PBI. @ 69-, PSIX @ 36, RATL @ 34-, SLVN @ 33+, VISX @ 60+,
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) ADLAC @ 59, ALSI. @ 68+, AOL @ 171+, ASMLF @ 46+, CNCX @ 50-, CSGS @ 80-, CTAS @ 76-, CYMI. @ 28+, EMC @ 106+, ESRX @ 70-, GEOC @ 39+, GLW @ 49+, GMH @ 48, GMST @ 66+, HLI. @ 58, LIN @ 39++, LLTC @ 104, LRCX @ 38+, LVLT @ 59+, MWD @ 90+, MKL @ 180+, MWD @ 91+, NSCP @ 70+, NVLS @ 75, ORCL @ 59, PERC @ 44+, POS @ 69+, RFMD @ 72-, SLR @ 90-, TAGS @ 41+, UFPI. @ 20+, VRSN @ 95, XLNX @ 82, ZLC @ 34+....note how some of these popped back up, allowing us to catch them, then fell again, yes ?
and/but, Took, COST, TR, TI., Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern.... And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", UWW, BSX, NVX, MLT, DE, MB, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, ESPRY, DELL, MSFT, MERQ, SUNW, MNMD, NOVL, NTLI., PRIA, XRX, SWC, MC, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. Also, by viewing such charts, tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
NOX 3 up 3/8, SRV 18 1/8 up 1 3/4, MLP 9 7/8 up 5/8, WLM 9 5/8 up 1/2, MIR 18 up 2, HET 16 up 1 3/8, DRC 30 1/8 up 1 5/8, NWAC 24 1/2 up 1, BHI. 17 3/4 up 7/8, DBRSY 16 3/4, HLX 4 3/4, up/further, since last time here....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers who want "real
quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger
potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will
hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can
really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of many reasons why
we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would purposely limit one's potential, and purposely increase one's stress, and actually want to spend more time having to watch and process more things, on purpose, is beyond illogic. With my "PSYCLE sm", we trade less, hold positions longer, do not have to watch every minute, and have much less stress.
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, RTC 5 up 3/8, MCL, UBIX, PAR, CBMI., NPRO, HAL, MANU, CPU, GYMB, CFS, UMR, UPX, CCLR, TFN, ISSI., GLBL, CYM, ISCO, ESV, KRY, WFT, TAROF, ELCO, IMG, ICI., NE, SEW, SAMC, ARG, SAA, MGN, WKGP, FNL, COE, PMK, LXR, SUL, SSC, CCH, BS, Oil Services, Metals ....some of these are also in "ms" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) MANU 8 1/4 up 3/4, RXSD 13 3/4 up 1 1/8, CMND 2 1/2, ALLP, ESOL, OFIS, PSFT, NWAC, UBIX, HMY, ESV, ADM, HDG, HAL, SAMC, HBI., MKA, SRV, AOI., MRII., SAA, SEW, GKI., MSN, UPX, GDC, NDE, CPU, LFB, LXR, WEL, WKGP, PAR, MCL, IMG, WEL, SSC, SOC, TOX, CAU, WS, MT, cheap golds, oil services
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
**** for the last time: MLNM, AMSY, APCC, CDWC, CHTT, WABC, PRGS, LGTO, ACTL, LAMR, ORCL, KROG, SBUX, INSS, GPU, BFB, PPL, ABS, SYY, WLP, ASC, PEP, SPW, SVU, WPI., PE, are all aproaching, or hit, their 200- or- 50 DMA....I hope you actually took the time to VIEW all the previously listed charts/stocks here, which also fell to their 50-and-200 DMA's....they were all given you herein near their highs....and, PDX, a put I gave you here and just missed, first, fell to $ 47, then was halted, then fell to $ 25, neat....and CBXC fell anyway....and, TXU, HAE, UST, SUT, TNL, MTL, WPI., UNM, WH, CG, fell even further....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near
support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in
section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....
remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so
please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their
thing. **** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many bounces, surprising: ORCL -10, AOL +14, -15, +3, -9, JBL -5 1/2, CTXS -4 1/2, CYMI. +4 1/2, TYC +4, RNWK -3 1/2, +4 1/2, ADLAC -3 1/2, ASND +3, -3, +3 (S), TLAB +3, -3, XMCM -5, CTAS +4, LRCX +4, -1 1/2, VISX +3, LVLT +3, MEDI. +2 1/2, MWD + 3, TLAB +3, ADCT +2, CTXS +2, CNCX +2, GAC +2, -1 1/2, NXLK +1 1/2, SNPS +1 1/2, VOD +4, NT +2, GGO +1, -1, BEL -1, +1, BOBJY +1, EFII. -1, INTC (S), QLGC -7, INTU, GEOC -1, SLVN +1, LVLT +1, TROW +1, CNMD +1, ZLC -1, ALO, TCOMA +3, COX +2, MSBC, FTEN, XEIKY, GLW, GEOC, PROX +1 1/2, AMFM, LIN -2, GPSI. (S), UFPI., ZD, SYY, TYC, MOT (sow), FAM (S), PBI., IIN ....remember, on some of these, I am just looking for follow-through, to fall below recent lows....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
"Leisure/Entertainment": (besides, ELY, PIN, PRD,
WCCI.), found several other real cheapies in the Mansfield charts, which I share
below here.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching"
section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (SAA, UBIX, CMND, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (NGX, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, BGO, RYO, KRY, some real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (WLM, BS, BIR, RTC, CYM, CSE, CCC, AGU, FNL, HPC, TEN, IGL, AG)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (UMR, VRC, BHI., PKD, near their recent lows, Only.... also see section just below here)
Biotech/Health/Medical (TAROF, FHCC, CBMI., NOV, GNSA, TOX, CCLR, ALLP, TOX, MT, TXB, HIV, LH)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (KFI., MSN, UNO, BLM, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, MIR, ILX, PAM, HET, CIR, SER)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, PAH, EOP, SMT, WIR, LTC, HOT, LSN, BD, PRT, SMT, WDN, RTC, CPT, ARI., NHR, BRE, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CRO, PMC, ENN, FBG, NDE, JPR, MAA, RFS, MT, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": KEG, TMO, BD, Z., --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
add, AAC, ALR, BJS, BMG, BXH, CNJ, COL, CP, CYB, CXY, DE, DRC, FAX, FCX, FLH, GW, HL, ISV, MLT, PSFT, PMA, PRD, RDC, REF, RML, SRV, SYC, TBP, TPS, UWW, WAC, WEB, WND, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, "repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) ACE, ADGO, ADM, ALN, ALR, AOI., APAC, ARG, BCF, BDR, BEZ, BMC, BSX, BTC, CBJ, CFS, CLCDF, CNB, CNU, CPU, CXI., DETC, EAR, ECO, ELCO, ESV, FTS, GGC, GKI., GLBL, HDG, HMY, HLX, IAD, IMG, INPR, ISSI., JLG, LKI., MB, MGN, MKA, MLP, MRVC, NEM, NPSI., NWAC, OE, OLGC, REV, SEW, SOC, SSM, SSN, SWK, TAM, TDP, TIE, VLO, WKGP, WTT, VSNR, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health, Energy")....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....
*** NEW: these are longer, tighter depressed bases, directly from
longer-term, 2 1/2-year, "Mansfield" charts:
health, medical/pharm. (AIMM, ALLP, MRII., NPRO, TAROF, VMRX)
comp./tech./s'ware: (CSRE, GTSI., LSKIC, MIDI., OBJS, KTEC, PNCL)
leisure/entert.: (SHOW, FAIRE, ONST, WCCI., (all real risky/cheap)
capital goods: (DETC, DSGIF, FAVS, ISCO, JPEI.) (most are bigger companies)
Note, some of these have high $ cash/share, little or no debt, and/or earnings, for those of you who value those things....others are REAL
cheapies/very risky....there are others I am checking, with similar patterns,
will let you know....mind you, these are NOT "very-short-term" trades....but some
subscribers wanted some longer, depressed basers, so here they are....just
providing something for every need....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY --- do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are
the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....note slightly shrinking/smaller list, and, some may already be down somewhat, yes ?
(comp./techs/s'ware) LRCX, QLGC, SUNW,
(medical/health/drug) ALO, BGEN, BMY,
(retail/food) ANF, BBBY, CBRNA, POS,
NOTE: many of these stocks are already down....
**** also watching: add, ADCT, AGN, AMGN, AMTD, AMO, ANF, AOL, BBY, BJ, BOBJY, CNCX, CMB, CMGI., CNET, CSCO, CVS, DCLK, EAGL, EDMC, ESRX, EXDS, FRX, GMH, ICOS, ISSX, KSU, LBTYA, LC, LOW, LXK, MDS, MERQ, MNMD, MOB, MSFT, MTNT, MWD, NEO, NOVL, NTLI., PBI., PERC, PRIA, PSIX, RATL, RTN, SFE, TAGS, TJX, UIHIA, UMG, VISX, WCOM, XRX, to, ("repeats") AAS, ALSI., AMCC, ANSR, BBOX, BCE, BEL, BMY, CCL, CNMD, CSGS, CTAS, CTL, CYCLD, DISH, EXPD, FTEN, GAC, GE, GGO, GLW, GMST, GNET, GNSS, GTE, GTSG, HAN, HLI., IIN, IMNX, INTU, JBL, JCOR, KBL, LLTC, LSCC, LU, LUK, LVCI., LVLT, MACR, MANH, MC, MCLD, MCRL, MEDI., MEDQ, MHP, MKL, MLNM, MPO, MRIS, NAB, NSCP, NOK/A, NVLS, NXTL, OK, ORCL, PMCS, QWST, RDA, RFMD, RNWK, SAPE, SBL, SCH, SEGU, SLR, SLVN, TCOMA, TSS, TWX, TXN, TY, UFPI., USM, USTC, USW, VOD, VRSN, WIND, WPO, XEIKY, XLNX....
note, we are revisiting more previously given stocks....obviously, a Huge list here, as I told you to expect recently....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and, understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, Extended and
at least Semi-parabolic, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Consumer, Banks, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....the list Grows....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
repeating last time's reminder lesson: continuing "tops" concepts, viewing the S.T. "EVT's" on my puttables list, you can now "see" the real-short-term double-and-triple tops in many extended stocks....the vast majority of the 'intraday pops' those stocks had, last Thu./Fri. the 12th, failed, below those tops.... when/if the recent lows get broken, look out....for example, if stocks like, AHAA, ALTR, AMCC, ASND, ATHM, AMP, AOL, ANN, ALO, T, (just among the "A's"), were to break their most recent lows, that would complete a more serious rolling "upside-down triangle" and/or H & S tops, which I mentioned in recent NL's might be setting up, chart-wise....There are so many more potential tops around (see above), and seasonality here has tended not to be so great, as I said, one would figure at least some of our Puttables will break further, which has occured already with many....but we will still take at least 1/2 pos. Gains around their 50- or -200- DMA's support, and prefer new Put buying (replacing those with) in new stocks which have NOT yet fallen at all, vs. continuing to hold those that have already fallen to those levels, dig ? hope this helps clarify further....
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7 NL, through the 12/28 NL.... refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock herein
may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any
given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec.
(3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or
fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it
pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains
a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3,
ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times:
all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original
prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact....
period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL
sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up
"revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little
consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all
emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ?
(plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end
period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years".... One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....