1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Once again I ask: got puts ? yeah, I know, we have all probably had a few Q, S, losses among puts (and maybe longs) recently, but, more declines have been occuring again for us, in extended stocks, because we stayed with the concept....and, of course, you had previously bought plenty of depressed tax-selling winners anyway, more than compensating for some QSL's, right ?

As I previously mentioned in this likely ongoing-for-a-while, multi-staged decline (among extended stocks), we are already seeing some stocks declining to their 'necklines' going back to their Oct./Nov. levels, like, CSC, MWD, TMPW, etc....and the neckline on the NYSE comp. is around 570, not too far below here.... again, this often represents initial downside support, just like a rising 200 DMA normally does....the S & P already broke below its 200 DMA....the NASDAQ and the S & P still look lower, like - 8 to -12 % lower down the road ? before hitting better support levels....while, the secondary and tertiary and still-depressed stocks pullback, are more likely to bottom, and rise again, independent of what 'the extended stocks do', in our still-continuing 'split' market....

There are few 'news' items of note in section (2) today, so concentrate on charts in sections (3) and (6) and (7)....and use I.G. rotation, vs. trying to predict Indexes....Remember, 'after the first hour or two of trading', Tue. or Wed., we should have some V.S.T. bottoms....especially in light of afront-page L.A. Times, 2/19 picture, showing a floor-trader holding his head in disdain, after the the Dow is already down 13 % off its high, with headline, "Stocks plunge on rate-hike fears"....they wrote, "Friday, the Techs, darlings of the last 2 years, plummeted, after all but ignoring Greenspan's comments on Thursday"....See ? the same 'story' had opposite supposed 'effects' twoconsecutive days, dig ? One day it is supposedly 'bullish', but the next day, that same item suppsedly was 'bearish'....therefore, pretty useless, as a future-price-predictive "factor", from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., just as I taught you....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7).... and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:1) while I was a bit too early on Putting some extended Media/TV/radio/advert. stocks (but was the first/only to be right on some at least at their tops), their recent relative weakness was pointed out by Bob PIsani, CNBC, Thu. noon.... 2) was I again the first/only to give out S.T. bottom among Trans./Rail. stocks, like, LUV, CNF, CNI, BNI, NSC, MRA, AN, etc. recently ? added more in section (6) below.... 3) but those Biotechs are definitely topping in their parabolic rises here, and also any stocks with the word "Cell" in them....they look here, as the Internet stocks did, in early Jan. 1999, when I was, again, the first/only to foresee their - 25 % to - 50 % S.T. drops back then.... 4) it may still be soon, but perusing recent 2,000 Value Line stocks' pages, as I expected, many depressed Food, Apparel, Retail, Health, stocks, also look L.T. bottomy....especially the longish list of Health stocks given in section (6) below.... 5) and don't kill me for being early again, but, those 'Toy' stocks are getting real cheap again....watching for EVB's to form, and will let you know....been pretty good with them over the years herein, as you know....

A good article, in Financial Planning mag, Feb. issue, "the year Indexes finally lost....Tech. stocks are lifting most M. funds, as mgrs. join the public's flight to risk"....a few items of note: according to Wiesenberger, between 1924 and 1998, only 21 M. funds ever returned more than + 100 % in any single year.... wow....real hard to believe isn't it -- but true....And, while 3,011 out of 4,773 actively managed M. funds beat the S & P 500, in 1999, in 1998, and 1997, and farther back, only 800-1000 at the most, beat the Avgs. each year....The difference ? Obviously, as I said, the abberation of Techs stocks funds recently ....Which, as I said, cannot, and will not last....also, in 1999, as you know, the Gains came from a narrow list of stocks, while the broad market saw 2/3 of all stocks fall....The article's author sees the current fervor for Techs, as similar 'fund group behavior' to how the 'emerging/foreign market funds' were super-favored, only after their huge rises in the late 1980's/early 1990's -- only to see them UNDER-perfrom, for Years, thereafter....a trend NOT predicted by any M. fund mgrs., dig ? So, one cannot expect the 'experts' to get out of Techs in their funds anywhere near their top, from here, either....Last, that "flight to risk" they mentioned, is a telling remark, yes ? Not a good sign ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) front-page, L.A. Times, 2/19, big chart titled, "Dow 10,000.... again ?" Of course, they say that, bearishly, with the Dow already down to 10,200....Better would have been to have used this headline a few weeks ago, ay ? ....2) same L.A. Times front-page, "Ingram stock staggered again by disappointing profit report", but notice, "IM" stock seems to be still forming a base, still, and not 'falling anew', dig ? this is normal after a big drop, as taught you herein....The Media continues to try to 'smack the stock', only after it has fallen, but it refuses to break further ....3) just what we need: Biz. Week, 2/28, "Is the Bond market ready for Day Traders ?", stoked the fires of such potential activity, in their semi-sensationalizing, 'create the story even if does not always serve the public' way, shockingly interviewing only peripheral 'e- sites' pitchmen, "pushing the idea of daytrading bonds"....oy....A guy interviewed actually said, "what most people don't know is that the 30-year T-bond has the same volatility as an Internet stock"....oh, really ? I am not so sure....so, run, don't walk, in the other direction....thank goodness, the last paragraph of this article says, "there's not the same instant gratification as with equities." Which is a good thing.

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) L.A. TImes, 2/19, "stock of Carnival is taking on water", shows 12-mo. chart of "CCL", a stock I gave you herein at rolling top as a Put, while the Finl. Media and Analysts loved it, remember ? and, now, of course, only after it fell from $ 50+ to 30+, the Times writes a negative article, late, as usual, right ? another perfect example of "PSYCLE sm" pattern....oh, the co's. earnings rose, they increased their dividend, all the trade papers glowed about it- and its stock fell, due to chart pattern....the one thing they rarely mention....the analyst at CS First Boston who was wrong from 50+, nontheless still rates CCL a 'buy'....no stop-loss, no help....next.... 2) Biz. Week, 2/28, "Mac hits another home run", correctly points out how superior Apple's OS is to Wondows (don't get me started), but, title of article, to us, portends a S.T. sentiment top in the stock, on my Puts list, as you know.... 3) I read where OPEC countries now fear further Crude price rises, because they fear other countries will begin to hate them again....but the tripling of price the last two years is O.K., right ? We generally eschew 'fundamentals', but watch for increases in OIl production finally, and top in price....which is why most extended Energy stocks have NOT been rising any more, anticipating this, as usual....How come so few overpaid industry analysts are not seeing this unfolding/coming ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers:1) new recent Merrill Lynch outside billboards here in Orange County, say, "Be Bullish"....nice timing, ay ? not.... 2) as I do once a year, note a bunch of "the best of depressed recent Value Line" ideas in section (6) below just this NL....they tend to be longer-term, though.... 3) a 'correct' analysis, Biz. Week mag., 2/28: "McDermott: an oil-patch bonanza ?" actually showed a depressed, basing chart of a stock I saw but neglected to put into this NL....check out MDR, already up, though....NAV twice recent stock price....maybe it will pullback.... 4) the MS Dean Witter analyst finally lowered his rating on "ANF" from "outperform" to "neutral"...Gee, only after it fell from $ 48 (where I gave it to you herein as a put) to $ 16....a bit late, yes ? as usual, also, with no stops all the way down....the pattern rarely changes....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) according to Registered Representative mag., Feb. issue, "Online users a small minority", Paine Webber, Dean Witter, Prudential, Smith Barney, say only 7 to 9 % of their accounts have signed up for their free online services, so far....this after all thge publicity and fervor....what does this say to you ? ....

As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....