1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Once again, I have never seen anything like recent patterns in many stocks, especially Techs....my gut says be in with stops, more, near probable lows, don't worry about some QSL's along the way, while also being in 'some' Puts....

The SPX and NASDAQ are right around support, so figure, at worst, fobd's to get more people out at lows, then another pop for techs, etc. Obviously, we're gonna get more fakeout moves, but must keep bigger picture in mind....the new stuff over Iraq, should provide 'cover scare story' for this coming low/buy area....and asuming some 'fakeout' moves at range-ends, oy....

CNBC had Dick Arms, of the/his A/D Osc./index, on, Fri. 12:25, who agreed with me, that, after 8/99, 5/00, after similar drops to recent, were nice NASDAQ buy signals near here, for a trading rally....he says we are as oversold as need to be to buy soon, neat....but, unfortunately, he was not specific enuf on levels nor timing....eh....and, on his website, he lowered targets, support....so what gives ?

anyway, by 12:30 Tue., seems some institutions just literally throwing in towel on Techs....so sentiment should begin to go our way soon ? and, therefore, one might consider giving some QSL's some leeway here, if suitable.... of interest, Wed. 7 am, Tyler Matheson said to Tom Costello, "the Jan. rally looks like a bear market rally", and TC replied, "yup - it's gone...." But, interesting, since ALL of them said, early Jan., that "as Jan. goes, so will 2001", right ?, and they were ALL super-bullish AFTER the rally, yes ? and they get paid for such comments heard by millions of people ?

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) note S.T. bottom in Golds.... 2) are the Oil Services 'fobo's' ?....3) note expected weakness (only by me from recent tops) among most extended Financials, Mtg., Insur., Banks, etc. ...4) now let me get this straight: last year, near their lows, all the analysts hated the Retail stocks 'because a recession might be coming, plus the web was bad as well', yes ? But, now, those same overpaid people Love them - as usual, only after big rises they missed (don't get me started), even as analysts say we are now approaching/in a 'recession', yes ? makes no sense in any case....more reason to employ my "PSYCLE" patterns, over any 'real or perceived' fundamental BS....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1)unbelieveable, CNBC's Ted David, Tue. 7:12, actually mentioned, "SKYROCKETING wholesale prices....stunnnigly high PPI number" - no need to comment here....where are the watchdogs ? ....2) big article, recent L.A.T., "workers allocating less $ into employers' stocks in their 401-K's" , misses then point - that one 'reason' is because those stocks prices are way DOWN in the last year or so, yes ? employers-stocks-investing-in-employees-401 K's has normally BEEN about 25% to 35 % in recent years, and maybe historically....of course, as I have been saying for decades, people tend to have wway too much in the stock of their companies, and do not diversify enuf, but, at some huge companies like, ABT, GE, KMB, SBC, Q, BAC, DIS, people have at least 50 % of their retirement $ in their companis' stock....for better of worse....my guess is, as long as it has been rising, people continue to do so, but only after big price declines (unhedged or sold, of course, people never change), they THEN lower their % invested in their companies' stock, dig ? normal pattern.....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) CNBC said, in Feb. so far, there have been 300 co's. warning future eps lower, vs. 37 in the same period last year .... 2) according to many recent articles, NYSE raders do NOT like the new Decimal system (sure, it took away part of their intra-trade profits - don't get me started).....writing, "frustration rises....very emotional about it....having trouble adjusting....desire for 5 -cent increments....floor brokers have to work harder....prices are moving more, intraday/intratrade...some traders feel they are being 'pennied' by floor specialists, who are suspected of raising prices a penny or two when they know substantial orders are on their books at lower prices.... they rrisk an additional penny to make a few cents if correct immediately....their potential loss was greater when min. price change was 6.25 cents....there is now less liquidity within the 'old 6.25 -cent range' that used to be convered by the min. quote price move...." Dig ? ....3) for the umpteenth time: seeing more loved-as-no-risk-bulletproof-stocks at-their-highs huge Tech. stocks, making new lows, proves yet again, that NO fundamentals can be automatically 'linked' to any future stock price moves, the vast majority of the time....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) Bernie Schaeffer says he sees 'very little negativity' from investors here....I wonder which people he is watching....I see tons of negativity....do you ? he also said, "Greenspan, the man who was so very wrong about 'irrational exuberance' in late 1996, is the major contributor to the very real irrational exuberance in 2001....the (mis) belief that I.R. cuts will solve everything is at almost religious levels, and may well be as inaccurate as the now-discredited fervent belief that the Tech. boom would last forever." ....2) as usual, tons of B-firms finally only lowered their opinions on NT stock, Friday....don't get me started....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) as expected in the terror, Calif. decalred the first 'only stage 2 alert', Tue., in over a month....they plan to present the largest Bond issue in US history, ahead, $ 10 billion, thorugh which consumers will indirectly pay for part of the not-caused-by-them mess....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....