1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) following-up from my 'hated feared depr. Pharm. stks. are probably l.t. buyable' signal, 2 NL's ago, the PPH pharm. index also looks pot. base-y, as the 95 % detest those stks, dig ? ....and, on Fri. 18th, MRK, PPH, PFE, up big....am i good or what ....2) well, another in a long, loong line of 'stocks only I gave out herein near lows, getting taken over", CC got Unsol. offer from a hedge fund, at $$ 17. - way up from, if U recall, the $ 6-8 stk. px. level I sugg. buying herein a while ago, because all the idiot/overpaid analysts/95 % hated it down there, saying they would go o.o. biz, yes ?, yet another example of my "PSYCLE sm" at work....R U learning the opatterns ?, if not, Y not ?, next...... 3) and, as expected up here, TYX yld. jumped back up to 4.687 %, and, TNX up to 4.289 %, oy....I was, unusually, whipsawed in March 30-yr. t-bond, fobo 116+, now 113+, dig ? ....4) cash Gold rose to 435, so we watch to put/short osas ? or it that a s.t. bo ? it's 12/04 high was 455 recall....looks like Cooper bo, 150+, qsl, no biggie.... 5) and watching EBAY still, recent 241 split, adds to 'k.o.d.' i.m.h.o.
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) noticing the usual only-now-bullish-after-hating-it-at-lows news puffery about - you gyuessed it - MSO $ 36 way yup here !, amazing, huh, more near-perfect PSYCLE stage behavior....so as with its lows $ 6+ where I gave MSO out herein longside recall, into a staggeringly neg. sentiment (R U Learning ? re-read my EVB Booklet), those same ignorants now love it....U know what 2 do up here, what 2 watch 4, yes ?.... 2) I was stunned recently at the completely full parking lot at SCP, weekends....this is not good news, since it means people cont. to spend above their means, but then, I noticed NOT a ton of people walking out with shopping bags, go figure.... 3) did U know that over 50 % of all cars in Europe run on DIESEL fuel, not 'gas' ? ....4) anyway, evidently, several foreign counrtries, like, latin Amer, Asia, Europe have received higher Moody's Bond Ratings, in recent months, to almost investment-grade, no less....and has been a back-12-months-trend, not a new one....of course, I still have only read this in one NL - so watch for the idiot-late-useless Media only report this improving-finl. trend, later on, as usual, dig ?, but it does bode well for those countries for a while, forward, and ensures no global demise doom....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) as I have been warning for quite a while, Amgen joined other big Drug co's fearing ridiculous legal stuff, and pulled its potential Parkinsons drug from the mkt., dgms.... 2) read a ridiculous-as-usual article in 10/04 TIME, 'warning' about 'special risks' in Hedge Funds, etc., uu as the Media and Your Govt. cont, to pressure them unnecessarily, causing likely more harm to come to mgrs. and investors, more fees, etc., for the 'powers' out there, as is their nature, dig ? and, each issue of Reg. Repo. Mag. i read, gets more and more constricting of the finl. svcs. ind., people within it, regulatory crap, and political junk, etc., as I have been warning of for decades now....and became part of the reason why I left....
3) and then, 4/04 Reg. Rep. Mag. article, mentioned how, as I was amopng the 1st few to predict way back when SMA a/c's started getting bigger, 'fees' in mgd. accts. often cause brokers to "get pd. for not doping anything, while collecting their fee, for fear of risk, etc.", dig ?, see ?, they eschew proper trading/timing/ choosing/managing of client monies, in favor of a 'simpler' model which, of course, does less for people....as a growing no-win sit., kinda....dgms.... next.... 4) and, same RR issue, proved staistically, that 'past perf. of money & MF mgrs.', is NOT as much a predictor of future perf., as the 95 % have incorrectly been inferrring to unsuspecting investors, for decades - and as I was among the 1st few to suggest, decades ago, herein, yes ? their article title, "doomed to repeat the past', says it all, dig ? while the avg. equity MF yireturned avg. 12.2 % a yr. from 1982-2002, the avg. INVESTOR only garnered + 2.6 % a year !, yikes....their study concluded- get this - one would have done better NOT knowing the past T.R. of MF mgrs. !, again, in accordance with my 'knowing/seeking fewer fundamentals is better than many fundamentals' approach, as U know, get it ? once again, we see that MY teachings beat most all other mainstream/ind./media teachings, yes ?, you're welcome....mind you, such low investor-netted returns are NOT due to 'fees', but more, their bad timing, hurt by bad brokerage, and their buy-and-hold nonsense, vs. IGR they should be doing....
5) then, I saw l.t. past chart of "foreign purchases of US $ assets", back to 1990....and, again, I see NO DAFPPV correlation between how much for. countries invest here, and say, the movements of stks, the DXY, I.R.'s, etc. - get it ?, NO 'link' !, anyway, only in 2003 did f.p.o.u.s.a. rise or amt. to a lot - up till 2003, f.p.o.u.s.a. had been kinda steady and low, not rising or falling much year-by-year, dig ? meaning, the DXY, and, stks, and IR's, rose, and fell, at times, INDEPENDENT of how much foreigners purchased-us-invmts., get it ?, l Last, while the doomers do correlate 'higher for. pur. of US assets', with, 'higher US deficits', that is my whole pt., I have made for decades herein - one does not CAUSE the other, they put $ in the USA, REGARDLESS, anyway....'nuff said 4 now.... 5) read where Bill (god) Gross PIMCO admits being WRONG, calling for higher IR's, rates have fallen, and along w/a few other economists (sic), calling for a US econ. slowdown in 2005, but he's been bullish on Munis, saying their IR's approach taxable Bond rates, for high-Y people....his co. now manages $ 76 B.,
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) hey guess who has been beginning to like EBAY between 100 and 70 ?, yup, Navallier, so watch for EBAY to bd below 70 at some point this year, dig ?....
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) hey, mstill more pfoor of my concept's power, as manning Indy f'ball QB, who, recall, was projected by the 95 % sports guys as a cinch to throw 60 TD's, only ended up with 49, dig ?, exactly as I suggested back then, herein, yes ?, as the pattern rarely changes.... 2) reading more not-so-terrible-immediately items about Soc. Sec., like, even if we do nothing here, about 73 % of current AND at-that-time benefits will still be paid at current tax/benefit rates, in year 2042, hmmmm.....so, cutting everyone now and forward, would solve the situation it would seem, if we just cut everything -27 % total, yes ?, we shall see....of course, as U know, I say, no way is your govt,. gonna solve anything here, anyway, and I always expected to receive about 73 % of what they promised me, when/if I retire, if at age 65 in, say, year 2030 ?, my biggest complaint is that your govt. suggests L.I. co. annuities be purchased with $ depositers put into 'private accts.' - that is B.S. !, that is another layer of rip--off for people, yes ?, oy....
2) read a nice treatise from a Dr. Watson Emory Univ., studying how people receive info. from the press, on which they base decisions....tyhey pointed out that, these years, one tends to receive 2 diff. versions of every 'story', left, and right, get it ?, plus, then the Media dostorts, agendizes, etc., as per my Booklets, etc. - plus, what people's friends, pols, invsmt., and radio/tv sensationalizes, etc. ergo, the human grain, having 2 diff. sections of info. processing type, itself, causes people top reach improper conclusions about many items....regardless of the Facts....adding emotional & religious crap to the mix, yikes....of course, i have been teaching this for decades....
anyway, his study (titled, 'Dont confuse me with the facts') showed - get this - that, the real; facts and evidence rarely amttered....84 % of the time, we could predict how people would react to news items, etc., without their even knowing any facts - their inherently created belief system ruled their too-quickly-made decisions and actuions and ipinions....trying to give people the Facts barely addedd any predictive or helpful-tin-their-opinion value to the issues, wow....the imnplication, is that people have become way too intellectually lazy, close-minded, rigid on their illogical inbred beliefs from their youth, to effect pos. l.t. change on most issues, ever....and, as u know, I have been saying this for decades....this guy even mentioned the folly of people needing "reasons" B4 they act, that do not help the process nor results (gee, where have we heard that B4 ?, oh, yeah, my teachings/booklets)....most brain functions seem to be cross-wired, left-right, right-left, so people 'say' not what they 'think', and fail to process potentially valuable info., because the emotional/defensive-side of their brain prevents them, etc., and so it goes....what a shame, I say.... but, of course, my processing and output have always attempted to overcome people's inherent illogicity and ineffociancy on DAFPPV inputs, yes ?, yet, over the years, 95 % of the time when I show actual charts, people still refuse to accept the histoprical facts about many things....more proof....kinda sad....except if one acts in a more "PSYCLE sm" -manner....
and, am again disappointed that local OC weathermen are so bad day to day at their seemingly overpaid jobs, ay ?, shouldnt they be a LOT better at it ?, anyway, noticing intraday changes in weather out here more, over time....just an observation.... 3) and just read a short l.t.t. editor recent USN&WR mag., on a soc. sec. solution: get this ! : since no soc. sec. taxes are levied on incomes above $ 90,000 /yr., just taxing ALL higher income, would fund all soc. sec. needfs, forward, period, even if one started that now !, but, of course, higher taxes does not work in our econ., and of course, the wealthy, would never allow that to occur, dig ?, gotta keep the middle & lower-classes down, ay ?, next....
read Carly Fiorina HWP joke: she dies and goes to a 'doiwn place with demons, devil, etc.'....she asks, hey, I did a good job at HWP, why did I go to hell instead of heaven ?, and gets answer: oh, werent' you told ?, we just merged....
read in recent USN&WR, the "Media Fund", a nasty liberal funding group that raised like $ 60 mmm to attack Bush in the election, is called, "super-successful" by the USN&WR....gee, they wasted $ 60 mm from people, and still lost the election ?, doesnt seem to 'successful' to me, ay ? next....
read where your pres. Bush, asked what he has been reading lately, actually answered, "i think on a good night, maybe 20 to 30 pages"....'nuff said.... oy....next....
also read where, proving many anti-Bush opinions way back when, that, well B4 the 9/11/01 date, your govt. did indeed receive literlly 52of 105 intelligence (oxymoron) summaries had specific Osama/alqueda/planes/hijackings/bombing warnings - between 4/01 and 9/10/01....dgms....
recently, exactly as i predicted, Calif. has tone of extra flu-shots avail., while very-front-page recent LAT headline, "state has oddly mild flu season"....gee, who was 1st/only to predict that, herein, 4 U ?, you're welcome....dgms.... next....
4) read yet another ignorant makes-the-opposite-argument tome from taipan/martin denholm NL's, writing, "those of U who thought there was a housing bubble, did U C that Jan. US hsg. starts shot up +4.7 %, way more than they expected...." well, gee, if housing SUPPLY, RISES, how would that be 'bullish' for hsg. prices, if demand does not rise even more, I ask ?, dgms....supply up = prices down, period.... 5) just saw nice multiyear chart of 'growth in unsold homes supply", via J. maudlin/InvestorInsight, showing, exactly as I was among the 1st few top predict a little while ago herein, they say there is now athe highest # of unsold homes on the mkt. 4 S, since - get this - mid-2000, and has been steadily rising for months now....but, of ocuse, no one in NE, Fla., nor So. Calif. will publish this fact, dig ?, in denial, as I have been saying....almost 5 mos. supply, and almost 450,000 SFH's 4 S....aint good news for RE or prices, ay ? am I good or what....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
0 more Longs, neat....
and,
0 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
bal. for % Gain....all s.o.m. PSY, all stk. AGR.B, for % Gain....
and/but, longs, BLDP, CLTK stbd ?, STTS no, hold, fobd, bal. RPMM bd ?, fo ?, BLLD, and, puts, copper, GOOG bo, BPFH bo ?, for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 SOHU @ 15-, RMBS @ 17+, 19 % recons, again @ 90-, 1/3 NYB @ 17+ fobd, 1/3 pos. CEGE @ 6.1, 1/3 ISIS @ 4.25 non, 1/3 TQNT @ 3 1/4, 1/3 SPRT @ 5.1, 1/3 ETLT @ 0.40+ spec,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): STTS fobd, SEHO @ 0.14 fobd, RPMM bd ?, 1/4 SINX @ 0.02- super spec, eh, LENSE @ 1.50+ eh....
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, ESPD bd ?, SANM bd, SONSE, SYNO mistake, SGI bd, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
added, the SPX/SPY @ 121+, DJIA/INDU @ 10,800+,
to, EWJ @ 11-, the 10-yr. bond @ 113-, maybe even the major stk. indexes, like, COMPX @ 2100, BPFH bo, no ?, EVG @ 41+, Crude Oil @ 49+ again,
"Repeats":
ACAT @ 27++ again, fobo ?, BKMU @ 12+, GOOG anyway @ 204+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit ....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CGFW, CTIC, NOVL fobd ?, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7)....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
several nice pops among given-from-lows techs:
SOHU 15.26 pb (B), 17.70 nice, LSCC 4.57 pb, 5.20, CEGE 6.05 (B), 6.33, up/further since last NL here....and, EVC 8.00, 8.60 up 0.60, fobo ?, 7.84,
and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:
ETLT 0.50 pb, 0.57, DXY 82.44 pb, TQNT 3.70 up, 3.39, bopb, STTS 6.49 stbo, SFE 1.53 cb ?, non, EVC msf, CEGE 6.08 pb....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
ISIS 4.22 non, SEBL sos, PMCS 11.01 up, sos, RPMM 0.15 cbopb, LENSE 1.55, 1.84, SPRT msf, and, SUNW 4.10 dn, msa, SANM 5.97 non, SFE 1.53 cb, 1.60, msf, and, ELY 13.74 fobo ?, SVNT 3.38 (S) ?, NYB 17.70 pb, bopb....and, DSS 2.67 stbd....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
DJIA 10,638 dn 188, hah, SPY 118.87 hah, 10-yr. t-bond 111.3 dn, down/lower since last time here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
EVG, BKMU dn, fobo, BPFH, Crude, ACAT bo ?, 28+, 26+, the March 10-yr. t-bond, non, are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when they should be falling more ....and, GOOG, 181, 198, 191, Gold 335 bo (S) ?....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
*** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depessed....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, UMC, NOVL fobd ?, RMBS 17 firm + recons, ACTI. obpbas, to, CPN obpbo, AMD/recons obpbo, SFE opb, CEGE, SOHU, to, SINX fobd, TXEO another super spec. ?, PCLE tln, CY obpbo, STTS no ? bd ?, SKIL ?, SWY fobd ?, PKS ltp ?, RPMM ? fobd ?, TSM tln, LSCC opb, ISIS non, TQNT opbo, CLTK no, stbd, ADCT obpbo, SUNW obpb, SPRT bd ?....
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, WIW, NYB fobd ?, to, PMCS 15 % recons, eh, opbo, RMBS 19 % recons obpbo, DCS ?, ZF obpbo, EVC obpbo, to,
and, watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both are already up around 11+ and 13++ now, so too high ?, yielding 15 % each here anyway ?, eh, tln ?,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:
note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....
added, to, GOOG (prob. fobo), DJTA oso, EWJ, crude oil again on strength, bonds on strength ?, major stk. indexes os ?, XMSR ?, SBUX ? (see above), GCD ?, ACAT bo ?, EVG, BKMU bo ?....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES