1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) INCY, HGSI, MLNM, etc., down nicely, Tuesday, beginning an expected top in Biotech/Cell" stocks ? rallies Wed./Thu. unable to surmount highs, so far....so let's watch them for EVT's ....2) note continued relative weakness among Oil Service stocks, even as Crude price remains high....gee, could the stocks be anticipating what 'the fundamentalists' are missing (as usual) ? ....3) note continued expected drop off obvious double-top, in AOL, to last summer's support....of course, we will likely see more and more bashing of AOL negatively near its final low, when that occurs, right ? I wonder how Jim Dines has been doing ....4) am I the first to see more 'depressed biggies' which were loved-by-the 95 %-at-their-tops-not-too-long-ago, like, MO, SLE, ANN, UNM, etc., getting done, on the downside, S.T. ? they, and similar-type stocks, may begin to form bases soon, watch for that....as usual, I am the forst/only guy saying this.... 5) while we just missed it given herein for you, OMX is now bouncing, yet another 'depressed Office Supply stock' in that I.G., which I was, again, the first/only to have given out near lows herein for you.... similarly to ZMAX, up big, in the "Y2K" I.G., I was also the only to give at their late 1999 lows for you herein....this is what proper diversification is all about....
6) I just received and read newest Value Line section on 'Apparel, Textile, Retail, Shoe, and Specialty-related', I.G.'s stocks reports, and, obviously, it was chock-full of depressed, interesting L.T. potential longside buys....The "best" ones, from V.L., to me, seem to be: BBA, IFSIA, WWW, DDS ?, WTSLA, as bases, and, KWD, FTL, TOM, VFC, HMY, TSA, DXYN, PTX, UFI, KM, RBK, SRR, GTRC, as EVB's....gee, I already gave most of these to you in section (6) recently ....They also had CPU, bearish, around $ 5+, when you got it here as a buy, and a big Gain since....ditto, PIR, another winner for us, a loser for V.L., and throw in OO., another recent big winner here for you, they missed....get it ? Obviously, the fact that this list is growing, tells you semi-bullish things longer-term, about this overall I.G., yes ? I say, the worst is DEFINITELY over now, for these companies/stocks....it's just a question of 'when', not 'if'....so, add these I.G.'s to the 'health-relateds' in section (6) below, some also from V.L.
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) told you so....Tuesday, CNBC's Joe Kernan highlighted recent drop in DIS stock, which I was the first/only to point out as a recent S.T. top, resistance, chart, and, because "the 95 % who hated it lower, began to get bullish with the Media's help, at $ 38", remember ? ....2) Phil Lebeau, CNBC, highlighted "JCP" super-negatively, Thu., 9:10 am, at $ 17-, only after already way down from $ 76., late, as usual....JCP still not ready yet, but a sentiment low is due soon in it....remember, 'the experts' (and Value Line) loved all the Retailers and Specialty stocks at their 1998 highs....and, as intimated above, neither V.L. nor any Wall St. analysts, had stops nor warnings, most all the way down....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) CNBC has been all over "GBLX" lately, bullishly, yes ? several coverages/stories about takeovers, growth, etc., but I see a L.T. double-top, don't you ? so added it, below.... 2) Tues., 10:30 am, CNBC had the pres. of "BLUD" on, a stock you should view the last 2-year chart of, as it had a great base, when I gave it to you herein at its lows, from 8 to 17, late, as usual, up off its lows, see the pattern ? ....3) CNBC's Joe Kernan, Tues., 10:50 am, was all bullish on "ORCL", on my Put list.... 4) this recent Sunday Dilbert cartoon could be germain to my "end of game soon for Techs' super growth" concept: its 6 panels say, "our division is unusually profitably this year....that means our targets for next year will be set impossibly high....our only hope of reaching our profit target next year....is to sabotage profits for the rest of THIS year.... it's too late to stop customers from buying our products....so we'll focus on increasing our wasteful spending...." What message does this send you at this stage of the "PSYCLE sm" ? to me, it says stock valuations must come down soon to meet unbelievably high expectations ....5) have you noticed the pullbacks/declines among 'Non-ferrous Metals' stocks, since CNBC, and all the 'expert analyusts' fell in love with them, not too long ago ? While not sexy to begin with, as I pointed out when I was the first/only to give the depressed Copper, Iron, Steel, Alum., processors, etc., stocks out, at their 1999 lows, herein for you (stocks like, AL, AA, EC, KMT, TKR, BS, WS, FCX/A, RLM, BW, N, etc., specifically given you then), they are correcting, some big, off 'the price levels where recommended by them after their rises, near their highs', yes ? But you don't hear anyone on CNBC pointing that out yet, ay ? Of course, at their next lows, they will 'begin to report negatively' on them, right ? will watch for that....To their credit, although they still rank(ed) them "1 or 2", at refcent highs (wrong already, dig ?), Value Line said recent gains discount some of their future potential....Note, their stocks are falling, even as their 'earnings' are rising....normal in this stage of their "PSYCLE sm"....and V.L. never recommended taking any gains anywhere hnear their highs, did they....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers:1) the pattern rarely changes: Financial Planning mag, Feb. issue, article, "New Economy Gains Adherents", is exctly what normally gets published, only two years AFTER huge gains in the Internets, etc., and biggish drops in 'old-economy stocks'....please re-read my "Media" booklet, to learn why items like this, seem to be predicting 'what has already happened', which they did not foresee in the first place, dig ? As I mentioned recently, they wrote, "many Finl. Planners and M. funds are now rethinking their asset allocation strategies and making sector bets that would have been unthinkable a few years ago...." late, as usual, right ? and, "analysts have begun to talk about a 'new economy', reckoning that the market is smarter than the academic high priests of diversification and value...." The analyst they chose to interview, actually said, "the Internet will affect every facet of our lives, so we do not expect to see a reversion to the mean of the past 25 or 50 years...." Wow....more 'famous last words' ? gee, weren't the big, L.T. drops among 'now old-economy stocks' we have had in recent years, itself, a 'reversion (back down) to the mean' ? Think about that....and, "every facet of our lives" ? that's a bit much, an emotionally attached comment, made near a high, ay ? Another analyst said, "market action cannot be explained by traditional causes...." But the question is, is now/recently, the time to 'begin' to shift equity assets, into parabolic rises, and out of stocks at lows ? Thank goodness, the last analyst they interviewed, properly pointed out, as I have said here, "if you go back 20+ years, you'll find that NO asset class or type has excelled for more than 5 years in a row....small-caps, international stocks, and 'value stocks' (became weak, for years, after having) had many top-performing years...." So, the message is clear.... 2) have you noticed how it seems every manager interviewed on CNBC lately in just ga-ga over Biotechs now, way, way, way up here, etc. Where were all these guys 2-3-4-years ago ? Oh, yeah, buying major Drug, Computer, and Retail stocks, near their highs, before they fell nicely over time....and, Paine Webber just initiated very strong buy on JDSU....yikes....where have they been ?
3) same issue of FP mag, article, "Catch (Up) 22....how much must small-caps outpace large-caps over the next 5 years to make up for the last 5 years' underperformance ? a whopping 22 % !" Stating the obvious, showed, that the last 10 years, the 'S & P biggies' beat 'small-caps' by avg. of 2.8 % a year.... compounded, that's a difference of + - 50 % the last 5 years....Since small-caps have historically outperfomed the biggies by 2 to 3 % a year, over time, since 1926, it would take another 17 years for small-caps to regain its lead over big-caps, from here....of course, this article fails to point out, how, many 'previously-small-caps', became 'big-caps', over the last several years, as their stock prices rose parabolically (rare), dig ? Last, in only two of the last twenty '5-year-rolling-periods', since 1980, has 'the Russell 2000 index', outperformed 'the S & P 500 index'....that's over the last 20 years, think about that....
It is important that you should know, that, in the early 1980's, when I was on TV daily, on the financial station CH. 22 in LA, I specifically was among the very first to foresee/predict a huge secular rise in 'financial assets' (vs. 'hard' assets), even as most everyone else continued to wrongly expect renewed inflation, higher I.R.'s, Commodity, and R.E. prices, remember ? At that time, I saw tons of V.L.T. bases having formed among 'blue chips and big-cap stocks' (seen via the M. C. Horsey charts I have suggested herein for you to view at times), and, back then (1983-84, when I started on TV), the Telecom/Cable/Phone, Consumer/Household/Appliance, Computer/Software, Entertainment/Gaming stocks, all had huge % parabolic rises up till the time I went off the air in late 1990.... stocks like, STK, CPQ, AAPL, the Bells, CL, PG, PG, MYG, the Drugs, and many others of their ilk, had great rises, becoming 'big-caps' over that time, dig ? Also, many BIotech stocks which I was among the first to specifically give out on the air, and to clients, in the early 1980's, were actually considered 'small-caps' back then, also becoming 'big-caps' only after their rises....Oh, and just FYI, I specifically got more fame, for giving out the 'depressed NYC banks' as buys in their L.T. bases, while "the 95 %" said their foreign loans would destroy them, remember ? same exact pattern, as they rose, parabolically ! Which is, of course, what is happening to the Techs, Semis, Biotechs, Internets, now....NO trend lasts forever....
4) evidently, as I mentioned recently here, Mr. Robertson and his 'Tiger Hedge Fund', not only held US Air and FMO all the way down, failing to diversify well enuf, or 'buy low', according to CNBC's David Faber, Tues., 10:15 am, they also shorted some Biotech stocks which rose a bunch more afterward, without stops or hedges (which is interesting, since it is called a 'hedge' fund, yes ? don't get me started)....
e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) nothing today....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:
bal. stock ZMAX (2+ to 9+) for L.T. 275% Gain....bal. puts CMCSK (55- to 42+) for VQ 100% G....bal. puts MHP (61+ to 48) for 100% G....puts MAN (38- to 31-) for Q 100% G....puts OMC (100+ to 85+) for Q 66% G....puts TMPW (158 to 120) for VQ 100% G....bal. puts GUC (116+ to 90-) for VQ 100% G....puts NYT (48+ to 42+) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TGI (23+ to 29+) for 50% G....1/2 pos. puts IMN (34 to 30) for 66% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. FIX (7- to 8++) for 44% G....
P.S. that recent 'sale' of MCHP puts, was a mistake, it had split 3-for-2, and my market maker did not alert me, no sweat....my thanks to subscriber J.A.
we just get whipsawed, in AMTD, ATHM....in, out, back in....
and/but, longs, BAMM, SVRN, TR, OWC, CNS, NCI., MRA< GAP ?, ASH ?, USL ?, NHI., FTR, TWA ?, RPD ?, HA ?, HNZ, and, puts, BVSN, VRTS, VIGN, NXTL, ORBK, SAP, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....but, still too many Q, S, losses....and still too many (?) patterns....and unusual QSL's, longside....
I hope you have actually been VIEWING charts of winners and losers here, especially longsiders, to 'see' the patterns....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
1/2 pos. ALI. @ 5+, 1/2 pos. BTH @ 23, CPC @ 15, 1/2 pos. DEMP @ 4.06, 1/2 pos. ETYS @ 15-, 1/2 pos. IFSIA @ 4+, 1/2 pos. TOM @ 11+, 1/2 pos. VFC @ 24+,
"Repeats": AMTD @ 15+, ASH no, ATHM @ 33+, AZC @ 0.70, BBA @ 3++, BBC @ 6++, BGO @ 5/8, BYX @ 3-, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, CKR @ 6+, CMX @ 4, DAY @ 0.07, DOL @ 14+, DDS ?, FAX @ 5, FSS @ 15, FTL @ 1 3/4, HBI. @ 3-, HCN @ 14++, IM @ 11+, IMR @ 10 5/8, JBM @ 3--, LUV @ 15+, LZB @ 14+, MHX @ 15+, NCS @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OCN @ 5++, OH @ 2 11/16, PDQ @ 7++, PKS @ 24-, PMC @ 8, RAD @ 7-, RDL @ 3, REV @ 7+, SFI. @ 17+, SMU @ 5+, SOC @ 4 1/8, SSRI. @ 1 9/32, TSA @ 2-, TVX @ 0.75, URI. @ 16-, USL ?, WMI. @ 15, WNC @ 13+, XRX @ 20+...."buy (only) low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, NSC, HLT, CNC, IMC, DDR, GRT, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AMGN @ 74, MFNX @ 77++, NVLS @ 57+,
"Repeats": AAPL @ 119-, ADRX @ 72++, ADTN @ 71++, BBSW @ 140, BCE @ 122+, BHC @ 160+, CA @ 72, ENE @ 70+, EXDS @ 137-, EXTR @ 99+, FCS @ 38+, KSU @ 77-, MANU @ 55, MCHP @ 49++, MDY @ 83+, MGM @ 24+, MRX @ 49+, ORCL @ 63+, PRGN @ 46++, PSIX @ 50, RNWK @ 93, SCNT @ 89+, SNE @ 280....
and/but, took, SMTC, RIMM, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", OMX, EFX, ARI, GTA, KRC, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, MC, BOBJ, CCU, GMST, MANU, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
ZMAX 10+ up 7+ wow (S), OO. 8 5/8 up 1 1/4, SAH 10 up 3/4, ETYS 16 3/8 up 1 3/4, CNI. 25 3/16 up 1, LAN 5 9/16, FIX 8 3/4 (S), LUV 18 up 1, NCS 15 3/8, WNC 13 7/8, HMY 3 5/8, TMG 6 3/16, DAY 0.125, DEMP 4.31, higher, since last time here....and, among older ideas still going higher, add, CMIN, GDC, to previous lists here....more for us to learn from....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: FIX 7 1/8, WMI. 16 1/4 up 2, REV 7 13/16 up 7/8, RAD 6 11/16, 7 3/4, CONV 9 1/8, SAH 9 5/16, CNI. 23+, SMU 5-, IOM 3 7/8, MHX 15 1/4, OCN 5 1/2, GRL 7 5/16, OWC 15-, OH 2 5/8, BL 15 1/2, ABX 18+, AVL 7 1/2, BMG 2 1/4, BMC, TOK, IM, LPX, MNY, PKS, ASHW, NBL, DHI., DOL, JEF, MUEI., ASH, CONV, DDS 19+, 17 1/2, IOM, PDQ, XRX, DAY, WDC, ECO, BGO, MHR, GAP, VGZ, GV, OCN, VBAC, RPM, NHR, HRC, CKR, RPD....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, get it ? those below must really strengthen or else....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) this list has been growing lately....AMTD 16 5/8, TSA 1 7/8, 2 1/4, ABX 17-, FSS, ASH, GAP, CBJ, FAX, DDS, BYX, USL, BGO, KRY, RAD, JEF, MHX, AIN, SMU, MSN, RPM, MHR, PDQ, RPD, LMM, PMC, RPD, NCI, GAP, OCN, WCC....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out: still giving you plenty more decliners, read them carefully: ADTN -9 1/2, CTS -9 (S), BVSN -9, AMGN -8, BCE -7 1/2, HHH -7, SFE -7, RNWK -8, +2, PSIX -5 1/2, MCOM -5, EXTR -5, MCHP -5, CA -6, UVN -5, MANU -5, SCNT -4 1/2, +1, AAPL -4, GUC -4 (S), MAN -4 (S), SMTC -4, PTEL -4, ETM -4 (S), ENE -4, MCOM +3, -7, +2, ROIA -4, TSM -4, AEIS -3, PRGN -3 (post-split), CDO -4, VO +2, -5, TLCM -3,
more: NYT -2 1/2 (S), MFNX -2 1/2, KSU -2, MDY -1, DOV -1, UMG -2 1/2, NVLS -1 1/2, MHP -1 1/2 (S), FCS -1, XLK -1, MOLX -1, CMC, lower since last NL....note, NYT, ETM, GE, fell to their 200 DMA....and, TMPW, CWP, MOLX, fell to their 'necklines' already....while, AXP, fell further to 130+, JNJ 72+, WMT 44....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
This kind of intraday volatilty among extendeds is usually dirstribution, not acumulation, historically....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (RAD, HRC, CMX, etc., also see Value Line list, just below here)
Prec. Metals (CAU, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, CCH, SSRI, PAAS, etc., longer-term, on pullbacks)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, SFI, NHR, NHI., NNN, KRC, CBG, PAG, BPP, BTR, ALI., etc.) (also some Housing-relateds, below)
Retails/Apparel (BBA, ASHW, DDS, HMY, SRR, RDL, TSA, etc.)
Energy (SUN, ASH ?, NBL, GOU, etc.)
Financials/Banks (JEF, OCN, XRX, AMTD ?, SCH, etc.)
Railroad/Trans. (WNC, BNI, GT, GY, LUV, AVL, etc.)
* plus, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, Funeral, stocks, down the road....and, longer-term, some Food, Grocery, Steel, Cap. Goods, Auto-relateds....
I am also noting more 'busted consumer goods' stocks below....like, SOC, REV, FTL, HMY, etc. ? and, ahead at some point, Toys ?
and I am still watching some Utilities....
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed just above/below, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market....note, the vast majority of stocks are "repeats" each issue....if you just view "some" each day, in a few days, you will have seen all of them, and culled the best-looking ones, saving you much time and effort, yes ? it's up to you....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, CONV, SMU, TVX, BWL/A, RDL, XCL, NCI, NCS, IM, to,
also, "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....all are repeats from last time here: MCK, WMI, BMC, BDN, DFG, TSK, FRT, NDE, TOL, PCG, SCS, AGU, CPC, BTH, PZN, ETYS, EFX, HM, WGR, PTX, PNW, NFS, URI, PKS, IMR, FMT, HGR, BGC, NFS, SRS, X., CGX, LII., ASL, HBI., SCS, JOB, DROOY, NGH, BSX, USL ?, AIN, FSS, HII, DHI., MUEI, WDC, HS, FAX, MRA, SAH, TIE, UCI, IO, SGI, AN, LUB, CNI, MNY, TEI, PCP, BYX, OMI, CKR, CHKE, LAN, SFI, SRE, GSR, JBM, OH, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, was/is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
** New, as promised: among V.L. ideas after reading all 2000+ pages (goodness, do I work hard for you), here are some depressed intriguing longsiders in favored I.G.'s:
mostly health-related: CMX, STEI, HELE, PRGO, HMSY, DEMP....
apparel-retail-textiles: please see section (2) item (a) (6)....
I know, not much of a list, yet....but some of these, I also gave out herein at their previous lows, a while ago, and did real well for you herein, back then, remember ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, GBLX, to, ASML, ADTN, AMGN, BCE, BOBJ, CA, GMST, GNE, MANU, MFNX, MXF, NVLS, TQNT, WCII, VIAN, CCU, FCS, ENE, HIT, MC, NYT, INRS, ITWO, MOLX, PLT, PME, PRGN, PSWT, PRRC, PXCM, PSIX, ROIA, TNE, TLCM, UVN, VO, VPHM, XLA, KSU, ADRX, TEVA, MCHP, SCMR, XLK, CCU, PLCM, EXDS, LMG/A, UMG, HNCS, SILK, GNET, ENGA, EXTR, PTEL, PXCM, ZBRA, MRX, ETA, MOT, SFE, VNWK, SSTI, VITR, RNWK, DISH, CCN, MDP, AAPL, VIA, OMC, DIGL, ORCL, MDY, MGM, TV, TFSM, from recent past NL's,
* Just view some charts, and if stock is now near its high, without having broken above its topping pattern, it remains a Puttable here and now, right ?
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Retail, Foreign, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: given recent comments and ideas above, none needed today...
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....