1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
You know how much I hate "market" stuff, but the daily A/D line NYSE, may be forming a double-bottom, with the Fall lows last year, dig ? This could jive with my recent "buy laggards/depresseds instead, for catch-up moves" idea I have mentioned herein....This is interesting, since many extended stocks, as I said, may form double-tops at the same time....Hey, if A can rise while B fell for 2 years, why can't B rise, or not fall further, while A underperforms instead ? Actually, I am just rambling here, but I wonder whether, much longer-term, as I mentioned recently here, in a similar manner that the DJIA was "flat after a long rise" from 1966 to 1982 (with a big bottom in 1974), we might not have a L.T. flattish period ahead, with Ind. group Rotation among still-depresseds being the best/only way to trade during the next bunch of years, while the high-priced stocks have a longer-term high-level consolidation ahead ? The Indexes had big rises from 1982 to 1999, and a big rise from 1950 to 1966, preceeding the "flat period"....and, the Dow was rather flat, from 1933 to 1950 or so, as well, dig ? each had similar time periods....ah, forget it....I am just not comfortable with attempts at "time" cycles....but it is an idea....
Just FYI, the biggest reasons why "time cycles" are not as helpful, is because they always carry leads or lags, so, say, one has a 3-month cycle of some kind.... You always hear that prognosticator say something like, "well, it could be early, or late, by, say a few weeks, etc." Geez ! What good is a supposed 12-week cycle, which can be off either way (and they never tell you in advance, but always on hindsight, yes ?) by 25 or 33 % of the very cycle they are supposedly using ? Plus, much of the time, cycles "invert", which makes much of that approach even more ridiculous, if used by itself....don't get me started....'nuff said.
Last, as to stocks from sec. (6) and (7) below, take a few minutes to try to view a different bunch each day, instead of trying to view all of them at once ....there is NO excuse for you not have viewed the charts of every single stock in sec. (6) or (7), over time, especially since many have BEEN on the lists for weeks already !!! also note how many potential longs have been cut or removed....
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable,
staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm"
patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that
best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR
educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most
Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and
I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and
(5). Very clear sections. You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) note removed some Drugs from pot. put list for now... 2) extended "chipmaker" stocks are beginning to look S.T. "hook" toppy, ahead, but some are making new highs, so not those, of course, yet....recall, I gave these out, on "Silicon Investor", in advance, in writing, in the past year, as buys, at a fraction of their current prices....I hate trading just on PE's, as you know, but, just as they over-negatived them as "going out of business forever" near their lows back then, they have now fully over-discounted any rise in earnings they may or may not have, next 2-3 years, the other way....and the same "expert analysts" who hated them near their lows, love them now, dig ? you know, stocks like, KLIC, KLAC, LRCX, TER, PRIA, etc....but not if new highs.... 3) note the further break/decline in the T-Bill contract, as expected/predicted, falling under 121., Thu., with 30-yr. yield now up to 5.63 %....I was among the very few, if not the first, to call the bottom in I.R.'s, remember....you're welcome....remember, by the time the Fed might raise rates, acts, the vast majority of any move will be over, right ? ....4) also note the recent predicted/expected bottom/pop up in the Crude Oil contract.... 5) and note how the Japan/Hong Kong Indexes are improving....as was taught to you herein, last Spring, the time to have bought most of those stocks, was several months ago, WHILE the "experts" (who are still not even noticing this pop yet) were warning you of "worse(ning) fundamentals for the forseeable future", right ? ....6) in a similar manner when I was early, and then correct, on the extended Financials earlier, I am "S.T. wrong" initially on "some" Extended Drug stocks here, but still ggave you many others which have fallen as expected...
7) also note, as predicted/expected, see how the Utiliy Avg. has risen back up to where it broke down from, from 287. S.T. oversold, up to about 300. S.T., cool....it still has more resistance under 305...."sos', right ? oh, and, the idiot reporter on CNBC, Thu. 10:35 am, said, "the Utilities are getting killed, slammed, down 5, to 292....WRONG again....the DJUA remains HIGHER than its very recent low of 287, yes ? he misleads millions again.... 8) again, I hate to get economic on you, but did you notice the recent announcement that our U.S. exports FELL last month, first time in a while ? Heck, that our exports (and our trade gaps) were continually rising for years, was given as "the" lynchpin on which our deficit economy had been succeeding/surviving, yes ? Or so the fundamentalists have said....Gee, if they are "linking" rising exports with higher stocks and lower I.R.'s and a good economy, then what might it mean if that whole situation is reversed ? There ARE other economic and financial factors at work as well, of course, but it is something to think about.... 9) the A.A.I.I.'s % index of bullish and bearish members' opinions, fell from 48 % bullish, to 37 % bullish, the last 3 weeks, while their bearish people rose from 14 % to 24 %....again, gotta have some bounces, before a better top ? ....10) looks I was, again, the first/only, to give extended "Bells" as puttables herein for you all along.... 11) note the base forming in cash Gold still, as I mentioned....as I said, though, do not expect a huge move yet....
b) 1) a beautiful "letter to the editor", in Barron's, 2/15, refuted Morgan Stanley's Byron Wein's bullish-near-the-highs, incorrect assertion that, "the fundamentals for technology stocks couldn't be more favorable", by pointing out that, 1998 was the first year of negative growth in the computer ind., tiny unit growth at lower prices, workstation sales were down -3 %, large server sales were down -8.3 %, etc. I still say the extendeds in that I.G. are running on fumes, and may still be double-tops ahead.... 2) Barron's 2/15, a push-piece about Edward Keon, a money mgr., had one good item, and one bad item: the good, was that he reiterated what I have found and reported to my followers for years, a real minority opinion: he also "found NO correlation between the changes in analysts' forecasts, and overall market returns going back 20 years (as far back as they had the data)....we found absolutely NO correlation, a mere 0.005". Thanks....more historical, actual proof, as to the uselessness of trying to "link" eps estimates and stock price prediction....The bad: his favorite stocks, now, way up here, are, AOL, AMAT, BBY, MSFT, SFA, TER, and VTSS, most of which are on my potential puttables list....Gosh, where was he, for instance, when, in my old NL's, I gave out BBY, SFA, TER, in advance, in writing, near their lows, as "PSYCLE sm" long buys, a year or two ago ? He also said, "either a stock valuation model works, or it doesn't work." Uh, thanks....oy....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) Mon. 22nd, Ron Isana, CNBC, 11:45 am, pst, said, AFTER the recent quick 400-pt. DJIA rise, "the market is giving an all-clear signal again".....that was a quote, gang....see, too many people who held during the corrections, then got scared last week, are breathing a sigh of relief.... 2) the ever-after-the-fact, too-short-term "Investors Alley" NL, remaining bullish before the recent pullbacks, and bullish at/from the top in Internets, got super-bullish again, Tuesday, after Monday's 4-day rally....I am adding them another decent source to "fade".... 3) CNBC, Wed., money mgr. from Castle Ark Mgmt., said, regarding At Home, "once Wall St. sees what this co. has/does, you'll see this stock really start to move...." Excuse me ? Didn't it already rise from $ 30. to 120. S.T. ? Hasn't Wall St. already "seen" this co. ? He also said, JC Penny stock "is going to have a tougher and tougher road from here...." Do you mean the co., or the stock ? This, when it is under $ 40., down 50 % already off its highs, when the analysts loved it, right ? get it ? They always tell you the future is going to be whatever the recent past has been, yes ? are you learning ?
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) Jim Dines was on KWHY-tv, Monday, 1:00 pm, and he remains hugely bullish, period, even from recent highs, on many, many Internet stocks....he specifically said, again, "you never sell these"....he also said, "a stock cannot drop into an uptrend"....hmmmm....gee, doesn't a top, end an uptrend ? no stops, no hedging, from him....he said, "this is your last chance to buy Internets" cheap"....huh ? cheap ? we shall see....last, he also specifically said, "I still have not found a good Gaming stock"....sems he missed ours....as I said before, he did indeed catch some Internets near their lows, but also held all into big declines.... 2) analyst on CNBC, Mon. 22nd, 11:45 am, asked about "PNU" said, "it is a trunaround story developing here....we have a yield here of 2 %, showing its safety....we like it S.T. and L.T."....huh ? PNU already up from 16, where they hated it, to over 55, a little late, yes ? And, as I mentioned before here, a 2 % div., doesn't help anything, ever....Why not just buy some depressed REIT's for yield-plus ? ....3) Lehman Bros. initiated bullish coverage on IMNX at $ 145., way up here....wow....so we'll fade them, yes ? ....4) Mary Meeker of Prudential, Mon., said, "the potential from here with the big Internet stocks, is phenomenal" "is" ? seems more like, "was", huh ....gosh, where has she been ? Remember, all B-firms must, by nature, put out bullish opinions on companies for which they are raising money or doing legal stuff for, yes ? Of course, what they "say" does not always equate with what they are 'doing' to help or hurt themselves or their clientele, dig ? but you already knew this....didn't you ?
5) Dan 'The Chartist' Sullivan, was on KWHY-tv, Tue. after the close, saying he stands by his bearish market signal given his people, 5 days ago, around DOW 9,100....he said he cut back, selling 1/4 to 1/3 pos. in DELL, MSFT, YHOO, etc., but kept the rest.... 6) John Bollinger (who is, along with J. favors and E. Garzarelli, etc., on CNBC way too often, to the exclusion of others of more value), on CNBC, Tue. 12:40, said the fact that the vast majority of stocks have not been rising, "is Not a Negative divergence, and is NOT a negative at all.... just a fact of life, going forward"....wow....famous last words ? we shall see....I fade him a lot as well...Interesting, Stan Harley has a nice bottom by his cycle work, due the first week of March, yet Dan Sullivan, has a top by his cycle work, due, during the same period....see why I shy away from such "time cycle" predictions in the first place ? ....6) and, in an amazing turn, Wed. a.m., CNBC reported that R. Acampora of Prudential, previously a bear from DOW 9,300 last summer, just went bullish, at 9,600...is this true ? if so, wow....Let's fade him, as well.... 7) last, Richard Arms, the inventor of the "overbought/oversold" Arms Index, himself, was on KWHY-tv, Wed. after the close, and was also pretty bearish....showed several proofs/charts....I like some of his work, and respect him more than many others....
3) an old acquaintance of mine while we were at EF Hutton in the early 1980's, Phil Roth, a good technician, now of Morgan, Stanley, on CNBC, Mon. 22nd, 12:40 pm, pst, actually showed a good chart, of "cyclical stocks" vs. "consumer stocks", and guess what ? His depressed Cyclicals index (some stocks of which I have given you herein) are indeed basing in relative strength....He also showed, what I saw earlier than he did, in T-Bonds, that is, that same 5.42 % resistance level in the T-bond, and the possibility, after a rally, of a bit higher interest rate....so far, we are both correct.... 4) John Murphy on CNBC, Thu. 25th, 8:50 am, finally "showed" the chart of T-Bond yields breaking out (up) a bit....of course, now people are "noticing" it (stage 2, right ?), and are saying, "sure, it can go to 5 3/4 to 6 %, but I don't think it can go higher than that...." Yet more famous last words ? They will, of course, tell us, after the fact, down the road, that what already happened, is what should have happened, late, right ? the pattern never changes....
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
previous short sale", where no puts options existed....
bal. calls MIR (14 to 20+) for Q 200% Gain....calls HET (14+ to 18+) for Q 100% Gain....bal. puts AMFM (58 to 47) for Q 111% G....bal. puts QWST (63 to 53) for VQ 90% G....puts JBL (38 to 33-) for Q 75% G....css CBRNA (58+ to 50) for VQ 25% G....puts DLX (37+ to 33++) for small 55% G....bal. puts MSBC (46+ to 42) for 55% G....css MTA (31- to 26+) for VQ 25% G....calls ICI. (31 to 35) for 55% G....css NEO (18+ to 11+) for VVVQ 75% G....Of course, expect a plethora of additional "taken" puts gains ahead....
and/but, longs, GKI. (2 7/8 to 3 3/4 to 2 3/4), GLBL, SCNI., INPR, APAC, ISSI., CBMI., OFIS, HLX, BCF, SEW, AGU, WND, CP, and, puts, XEIKY, NSCP, TECH, VRSN, RFMD, VISX, ALSI., IMNX, ANF, GLW, SLR, AOL, SYY, ALO, CVS, LC, for VQ, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio ....some of these cut sales were "immediate"....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns
are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying
those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less
risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right
? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short
holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) BJS @ 13+, COL @ 18+, CWC @ 7+, DAY @ 3/16, FTL @ 12-, GSB @ 17-, GW @ 3/4, HXL @ 8-, LXR @ 15/16, NEM @ 17++, SDC @ 13+,
(Read again, carefully, for New, "re-added" repeats) APAC @ 3 9/16, ARG @ 8+, AZC @ 9/16, BBA @ 3 13/16, BDR @ 6.06, BEZ @ 19+, BGO @ 3/4, BHI. @ 17-, BIR @ 4 1/8, BLM @ 2.06, BS @ 8-, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CFK @ 1 9/16, CLCDF @ 9/16, CNJ @ 16+, CPU @ 10++, CXI. @ 5/16, DSGIF @ 3-, EAR @ 5/8, ECO @ 1 11/16, ESV @ 8 7/8, FHCC @ 15-, FLS @ 16, HDG @ 1 3/16, HPH @ 7+, IDTC @ 12-, JLG @ 14, KTEC @ 6+, MANU @ 7++, MGN @ 2+, MLP @ 9+, NE @ 12+, NGX @ 1/2, NOV @ 2.06, PAM @ 3 9/16, RDC @ 8++, REF @ 6++, SAA @ 0.75, SSC @ 11/16, SYC @ 12+, TBP @ 5 3/16, TOX @ 3/16, TPS @ 13/16, UMR @ 11/16, VGZ @ 3/16, VLO @ 17+, WCCI. @ 3/4, WS @ 1 13/16....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds...."buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein, countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, VMRX, GNCI., AXE, ILX, UQM, ICP, RBO, BD, CXY, ACE, BXH, CNU, TDP, TIE, REV, --- Off the pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) AMCC @ 46+, BGEN @ 100-, BMY @ 132-, FRX @ 52++, GE @ 104+, GNET @ 57-, IPG @ 77+, KSS @ 70, MERQ @ 66, MOT @ 72+, NTLI. @ 80-, PRIA @ 42-, TD @ 45-, TJX @ 30+, TWX @ 66, UVN @ 41++, XRX @ 124-,
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) ADCT @ 42+, ADLAC @ 61+, ALSI. @ 68, ANF @ 78+, BEL @ 59+, BOBJY @ 42+, CM @ 45+, CNMD @ 33-, COX @ 74+, CSGS @ 80-, CSN @ 20+, EMC @ 108+, ESRX @ 72+, ETEC @ 53+, EXPD @ 46+, GDT @ 59+, GEOC @ 43, GMST @ 66+, HLI. @ 58, IMNX @ 159-, LIN @ 39, LLTC @ 53, LRCX @ 38+, LVLT @ 60, MHP @ 112-, NOVL @ 20+, NT @ 60+, NVLS @ 73+, OK @ 45+, PMCS @ 79, PSIX @ 38+, QWST @ 62, TR @ 46-, TYC @ 78+, UMG @ 57-, USW @ 62, XLNX @ 82-....
note how some of these popped back up, allowing us to catch them, then fell again, yes ?
For the umpteenth time: recent pops are giving us (i.e., YOU) mutliple opportunities to catch Puttables, as some stocks go, say, from, 60, to 56, to 60 1/2, to 57, to 60, to 58, to 60+, etc., get it ? each time, provided it does not break its top pattern, it will be (re)added here around 60, get it ? it will also be listed in sec. (5) below as +3, or -4, etc., get it ? good....
and/but, Took, ARMHY, LVCI., BCE, RDA, PVN, PNU, PFE, SCH, TXN, SGP, AMO, NAB, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here).
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted.... this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", IGL, SCY, WLV, APM, MLT, VDC, TMO, LMT, CS, PB, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, LBTYA, SAPE, SUNW, XOMD, EGRP, VNWK, ASML, EBAY, RTN/A, PEGS, INTC, CSCO, LSCC, XCIT, DCLK, DISH, MRIS, CCL, SBL, TSS, VOD, FMY, CVC, TXN, TER, BBY, IIN, LU, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this biz, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. Also, by viewing such charts, tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
ELCO 3 1/4 up 1/2, BS 9 3/8 up 1 5/8, GKI. 3 3/4 up 7/8, BDR 7 1/8 up 1 1/8, CPU 11 7/8 up 1 3/8, FTL 13 3/8 up 1 1/2, RTC 5 3/8 up 5/8, FWC 12 7/8 up 1, GSB 18 1/8 up 1 5/8, COL 19 1/4 up 1 1/4, PSFT 21 3/8 up 1 7/8, RXSD 15 5/8 up 1 1/4, BHI. 18+ up 1 1/4, FHCC 15 7/8 up 1, NWAC 25 3/8 up 1 1/2, DBRSY 17 5/8 up 1, MIR 20 3/4 (S), GYMB 11 3/8, RTC, PAR, up/further, since last time here....also see CIEN 38 wow, VDC 5-, TSA 7+, up more....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of many reasons why we are so against "intra/day-trading": why anyone would purposely limit one's potential, and purposely increase one's stress, and actually want to spend more time having to watch and process more things, on purpose, is beyond illogic. With my "PSYCLE sm", we trade less, hold positions longer, do not have to watch every minute, and have much less stress.
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, RXSD 14 1/8, AIMM 2.25, 2.63, 2.19, 2.31, GKI. 2 3/4 (S), MGN 3 1/4 up 3/8, UBIX 6 up 7/8, then 5 1/4, MANU 8 3/4 up 1 1/4, CCLR 4 1/2 up 1/2, BUNZ 11 3/4 up 1 1/4, TAROF 5 3/8 up 1/2, CYM 11 3/8 up 3/4, MAH 11 1/2 up 3/4, WFT 18 1/2 up 3/4, ELY 11 1/2, BJS 14 3/8, PSFT, IDTC, ALN, NPRO, NWAC, BLM, AOI. 2 3/4, TFN, COE, NPSI., NDE, GGC, CENT, MCL, HAL, CFS, UMR, UPX, ISCO, KRY, TAROF, IMG, SAMC, ARG, SAA, WKGP, BHI., FNL, LXR, SUL, SSC, WLM, CCH, Oil Service, Metals....some of these are also in "ms" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) DSGIF, MANU, CMND, ESOL, PSFT, IDTC, ELCO, CENT, HMY, ESV, ADM, HDG, HAL, SAMC, HBI., AOI., MRII., SAA, MSN, TPS, TBP, HPC, JLG, HPH, IMG, RYO, UPX, GDC, NDE, LFB, LXR, WKGP, MCL, SSC, SOC, TOX, CAU, BGO, ISV, WS, AG, NE, cheap golds, oil services....note trading halt in RYO....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
*** for the last time, see how, RMBS, SNPS, RESM, ADBE, TROW, RAD, fell to their 200 DMA, and NXLK fell to its 50 DMA, and, CBRNA, ZLC, GAC, SWC, USW, are approaching their 200 DMA, and, PMCS approached its 50 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards/near
support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, and/or as in
section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....
remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so
please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their
thing.
**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: almost allPuttables, obviously, including, TLAB +2, -7, MHP +7, -5, VOD -5, XLNX +6, -7, TAGS +3, BOBJY +2, -3 1/2, CMVT -2 1/2, PLXS -2 1/2, +1 1/2, QWST -2, GEOC -2, SLVN -1 3/4, +2 1/2, TAGS -1 1/2, GMH +1 1/2, -1, BEL +2, -2, RATL +2, EXPD -1, ANSR, JCOR, GTSG -2, AVP, RX, XMCM, CTAS -2 1/2, GGO, NOVL, CCU -1 1/2, ZLC, MSBC -1 (S), LIN -2 1/4, ZD, IIN -1, BJ....remember, on some of these, I am just looking for follow-through, to fall below recent lows....
we need to see many stocks break below recent lows....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
"Leisure/Entertainment": (besides, ELY, PIN, PRD,
WCCI.), found some other real cheapies in the Mansfield charts, which I share
below here.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (ZITL, SAA, UBIX, CMND, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (NGX, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, BGO, RYO, KRY, some real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (WLM, BS, BIR, RTC, CYM, CSE, FNL, AGR, IGL, AG)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (UMR, VRC, BHI., ESV, RDC, SDC, etc., near their recent lows, Only....also see section just below here)
Biotech/Health/Medical (TAROF, FHCC, NOV, TOX, CCLR, TXB, HIV)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (KFI., MSN, BLM, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, LOD, PAH, PAM, SER)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, CNO, AIJ, EOP, SMT, WIR, LTC, HOT, LSN, BD, PRT, SMT, WDN, RTC, CPT, ARI., NHR, BRE, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, BOY, BRI., CPP, CRO, PMC, ENN, FBG, NDE, JPR, MAA, RFS, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": VMRX, GNCI., AXE, ILX, UQM, ICP, BD, RBO, CXY, ACE, BXH, CNU, TDP, TIE, REV, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
add, APM, AVM, BCP, CGN, CS, CWC, DHC, FEG, FIT, FTL, FWC, GSB, HPH, HXL, IDTC, NVX, ORI., PB, PCAR, PLC, RAL, SCS, SCZ, TGX, TXM, UAG, WLV, ZITL,
to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, "repeats"
(alphabetically by symbol) AAC, ADGO, ADM, ALN, ALR, AOI., APAC, ARG, BDR, BEZ, BJS, BMC, BSX, BTC, CFS, CFK, CLCDF, CNB, CNJ, COL, CPU, CXI., CYB, DE, DETC, DRC, EAR, ECO, ELCO, FAX, FGI., FLH, FTS, GGC, GKI., GLBL, GNSA, GW, HDG, HL, HMY, IAD, IMG, ISSI., JLG, LKI., LXR, MAH, MB, MGN, MLP, MLT, MRVC, NEM, NOI., NPSI., NWAC, OLGC, PMA, PRD, PSFT, REF, RML, SOC, SSM, SSN, SWK, SYC, TAM, TAROF, TBP, TMO, TPS, UPX, UWW, VLO, WAC, WKGP, WND, WTT, VSNR, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health, Energy")....some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....
note, we re-added some previously given names, above here....
these are longer, tighter depressed bases, directly from longer-term, 2 1/2-year, "Mansfield" charts (note, no sexiness here):
health, medical/pharm. (AIMM, MRII., NPRO, TAROF, VMRX)
comp./tech./s'ware: (CSRE, GTSI., LSKIC, MIDI., OBJS, KTEC, PNCL)
leisure/entert.: (SHOW, FAIRE, ONST, WCCI., (all real risky/cheap)
capital goods: (DETC, DSGIF, FAVS, ISCO, JPEI.) (most are bigger companies)
Note, some of these have high $ cash/share, little or no debt, and/or earnings, for those of you who value those things....others are REAL
cheapies/very risky....there are others I am checking, with similar patterns,
will let you know....mind you, these are NOT "very-short-term" trades....but some
subscribers wanted some longer, depressed basers, so here they are....just
providing something for every need....but not very sexy....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY --- do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are
the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
**** add, AVP, BGEN, CM, CSN, DT, EBAY, FMY, GPS, GBLX, KSS, MERQ, PEGS, RTRSY, SEQU, SPLS, TD, UNPH, UVN, ZION, to,
("repeats") AAS, AFL, AGN, ALSI., AMCC, AMTD, AMO, ANF, ANSR, AOL, ASML, BBOX, BBY, BEL, BJ, BMY, BOBJY, CCL, CNET, CNMD, CNCX, CSCO, CSGS, CTAS, CTL, CYCLD, DCLK, DISH, EAGL, EDMC, EMC, ESRX, EXPD, FRX, GDT, GE, GGO, GMST, GNET, GTSG, HLI., IMNX, JCOR, LBTYA, LLTC, LSCC, LU, LUK, LVLT, LXK, MACR, MANH, MC, MCLD, MCRL, MDS, MEDQ, MHP, MKL, MLNM, MNMD, MOB, MPO, MRIS, MSFT, MTNT, NOVL, NOK/A, NTLI., NVLS, NXTL, OK, ORCL, PERC, PMCS, POS, PRIA, QLGC, QWST, RATL, RDA, RNWK, RTN/A, SAPE, SBL, SEGU, SFE, SLVN, SUNW, TAGS, TCOMA, TJX, TSS, TWX, TY, UMG, USM, USTC, VOD, WIND, WPO, XLNX, XMCM, XRX...
but, obviously, some of these are already down, and may be too late if not done already, yes ? Note, we are revisiting more previously given stocks....obviously, a Huge list here, as I told you to expect recently....VIEW the charts, before acting....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and, understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, Extended and
at least Semi-parabolic, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Consumer, Banks, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Internet, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., Banks, High-PE techs, and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....but some "bells" have become iffy, not yet....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
repeating the recent reminder lesson here: continuing our "tops" concepts, viewing the S.T. "EVT's" on my puttables list, you can now "see" many of the real-short-term double-and-triple tops in many extended stocks I gave you recently ....the vast majority of the 'intraday pops' those stocks had, last the 12th, failed, below those tops....When/if the recent lows get broken, look out....for example, "if" stocks like, AHAA, ALTR, AMCC, ASND, ATHM, AMP, AOL, ANN, ALO, T, (just among many other "A's"), were to break their most recent lows, that would complete a more serious rolling "upside-down triangle" and/or H & S tops, which I mentioned in recent NL's might be setting up, chart-wise....There are so many more potential tops around (see above), and seasonality here has tended not to be so great, as I said, one would figure at least some of our Puttables will break further, which has occured already with many....but we will still take at least 1/2 pos. Gains around their 50- or -200- DMA's support, and prefer new Put buying (replacing those with) in new stocks which have NOT yet fallen at all, vs. continuing to hold those that have already fallen to those levels, dig ? hope this helps clarify further....
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7 NL, through the 12/28 NL.... refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock herein
may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any
given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec.
(3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or
fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it
pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains
a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3,
ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times:
all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original
prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact....
period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL
sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up
"revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little
consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all
emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ?
(plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end
period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. Now, one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years".... One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....