1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) as expected, some Toys, and now, Aero./Def. again, are close to being done on the downside.... 2) I was noticing how many extended Energy stocks (not Oil Svc.) I gave herein first/only near highs, are having second-stage declines, like, P., MRO, OXY, TX, CG, etc. and now, I again add some Oil Service stocks in section (7) below.... 3) and, while we caught some, missed some, I take credit for, again, being the first/only to have given out the Extended Media stocks near highs, like, TMC, IPG, NYT, KRI, OMC, etc. ditto, the Paper stocks, which as I mentioned herein at their highs, CNBC kept loving, remember ? anyway, thinking about the Media stocks down, shouldn't all the overpaid analysts have known that 'the Internet' might have put a dent into their 'fundamentals' ? duh....kinda reminds me of how they all missed the huge relative rise of the Japanese car companies in the 1980's.... 4) ditto, with the 'big-name drug stocks', gee, remember whan, like with the Techs, Semis, Biotechs now, ALL the 'experts' jkust loved them all at their highs not too long ago ? hmmmm, what does that say about those 3 groups likely soon ? are you learning the patterns ? added more Semis, below, section (7).... 5) with seemingly every article I read and hear, now super-bullish on recoveries in Europe and Asia and Mexico, noting how high/parabolic so many of their stocks are already (as usual in this stage of their "PSYCLE sm", right ?), watch for the analysts to be correct 'fundamentally', but, the stocks to at least flatten, soon ? the economist Biz. Week 3/6 interviewed, suggested that further strength in foreign stocks/companies, "we might see some pressure on our own stock and bond markets...." Gee, aren't thousands of 'our stocks' ALREADT down a bunch, the last 2 years ? Once again, an analyst and a magazine, suggest something 'might happen' which has already happened....Of course, now, what has NOT yet happened, is the extended stocks they love up here, have not corrected, dig ? so let's watch for that to unfold....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) the pattern rarely changes: CNBC's Martha McCallum, Thu., 11:05 am, highlighted WEN, YUM, TSN, etc., negatively, of course, only after big stock price drops.... 2) L.A. Times, 2/26, actually wrote, "major Oil stocks fell amid speculation that producers would boost production to help cool prices and temper political pressures....but Oil Service stocks rose, because drillers and explorers would benefit from stepped-up production." Perfect, confusing Media-speak....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) Biz. Week, big article, 3/6, title, "Move over dot-coms....Biotech is Back." Then they run a box, titled, "portrait of a growing (but money-losing) industry." Nice potential S.T. top sign, ay ? in hopeful thanks, Jim.... 2) Biz. Week, 3/6, article about how TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer (I mentioned him 'toppily' earlier, herein, before his stock got whacked, remember ?) is now "blaming CBS Marketwatch for sinking his co's stock price....flaming over CNBC's ethics", saying, "CBS tried to drive our stock down as low as possible and buy us....attacks us every day...." With TSCM down from $ 71 to 12, the "PSYCLE sm" says, tough toenails, buddy....he should have hired me....and/or learned hedging techniques....and just be ecstatic at how fortunate he is, and has been, to have what he hs, in the first place....note, TSCM had recently broken a budding base ....but BW's article never said how much stock, if any, CBS had bought, which they should have, to provide a complete traetise, yes ? But BW did say Mr. Cramer has been criticizing other 'promoters/pumpers' of small-cap stocks, for doing what they said, is what Mr. Cramer himself has been accused of doing....Can't wait till I get my proper shot at this....last, with TSCM 'low', several suitors, like, NYT, NWS, GE, etc., may finally emerge L.T. ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers:1) hey, CNBC's J. Kernan, Fri., 7 am, had a correct analysis, specifically showing 6 biggest brokerage firms recently super-recommending "INTU" stock, and it falling nicely.... 2) a possible correct analysis in Biz. Week, 3/6, "The shadow budget haunting Japan", mentiones what I was first/only to suggest herein for you recently: that, even as the Media gets super-bullish on Asian stocks, especially Japan, only after parabolic rises, as usual, BW sees looming debt problems remaining there, like over $ 2-trillion and growing....they write, "horrible dilemma"....Moody's rating service warns of a possible downgrade, and may take another notch off Japan's debt rating....like, having the same credit rating as Italy and Belgium....two countries one automatically relates directly to at the same opinion-level as Japan, right ? get it ? ....3) acccording to CNBC, Mon., 8:10 am, Nicholas, Applegate's big guru Jeffrey someone, said , "interest rates will weigh heavily on 'value' stocks", and he sees the gap between NADSDAQ/growth stocks, and old-line/ NYSE value stocks, widening forever, even from here....Interesting (no pun intended), since this is what they said about "Tech. stocks", two years ago, and those very stocks went to the moon even as Interest Rates riose,. yes ? Meaning, he only says this 'negative item' only AFTER the 'value' stocks are already way down, and the 'growth sector' way up, dig ? More fuel for my opinion, that that soon-to-be-past trend might reverse a bit for a while....with the depresseds popping, and the extendeds pulling back more....makes sense to you ?
e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) as I was among the first/only to have predicted, recent issue of Business 2.0 Magazine, March 2000, says recent studies show that "31 % of all potential online purchaes resuklted in an abandioned shopping cart"....meaning, many buyers are walking away unhappy, online, get it ? how can all those stocks continue parabolic forever ? no way....I still see big fallout coming....of course, this magazine then ruins the message by replacing several Internet stoicks in their 'index" they follow: they removed, AMTD, DCLK, SEE, TMCS, PCLN, EGGS, DRIV, UBID (previously liked at their highs, and most recently depressed, get it ?), with, ARBA, CMDX, CMRC, DSCM, FMKT, ICGE, PPRO, VERT, most parabolic already (get it ?). Talk about bad timing....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % 'Gains' are just logical estimates for L.T., ITM options, if exist, and/or on margin, where no opitons exist....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:
bal. puts TSM (69- to 56+) for Q 100% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. OO (5 5/8 to 8 3/8) for VQ 80% G....bal. puts GUC (116+ to 87+) for Q 111% G....bal. puts MAN (37+ to 30) for 90% G....1/2 pos. puts CMC (33+ to 28-) for 75% G....bal. puts EXPD (44 to 33+) for Q 111% G....
and/but, longs, GAP, ASH, HBI, BTH, FTL, DDS, MRA, VTR, VFC, USL ?, TWA, RPD ?, HA ? JBM ?, DDS, PKS, and, puts, ORCL, MCHP, EXDS, PRGN, SNE ?, KSU, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....but, still too many Q, S, losses....and still too many (?) patterns....and unusual QSL's, longside....I hope you have actually been VIEWING charts of winners and losers here, especially longsiders, to 'see' the patterns....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
1/2 pos. FMO @ 14 1/8, 1/2 pos. GY @ 7-, 1/2 pos. HELE @ 7 1/8, 1/2 pos. LMT @ 17+, 1/2 pos. LOR @ 14+, 1/2 pos. MLM @ 36, 1/2 pos. RA @ 18+, 1/2 pos. SRS @ 1.44,
"Repeats": ABX @ 16+, ALI. @ 5+, AMTD @ 15+, ATHM @ 33+, AVL @ 7 1/2, AZC @ 0.70, BBA @ 3++, BGO @ 5/8, BYX @ 3-, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, CKR @ 6+, CMX @ 4- ?, CPC @ 15, DEMP @ 4.06, ECO @ 1 3/8, ETYS @ 15-, FAX @ 5, FSS @ 15, GOU @ 3.06, HCN @ 14++, IFSIA @ 4+, IM @ 11-, IMR @ 10 5/8, JBM @ 2.44 ?, LUV @ 15+, LZB @ 14+, MHX @ 15+, NCI. @ 9-, NCS @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OCN @ 5++, OH @ 2 11/16, PDQ @ 7++, PKS @ 24-, PMC @ 8, RAD @ 7-, RDL @ 3, REV @ 7+, SFI. @ 17+, SOC @ 4 1/8, SSRI. @ 1 9/32, TOM @ 11+, TSA @ 2-, TVX @ 0.75, URI. @ 16-, USL ?, WMI. @ 15, WNC @ 13+, XRX @ 20+...."buy (only) low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, WTSLA, AJX, CNI, DFG, SCS, SSC, UFI, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AMG @ 39-, HGSI. @ 223, IRF @ 38, MACR @ 89, SAP @ 74,
"Repeats": AAPL @ 119-, ADRX @ 72++, ADTN @ 73+, AMGN @ 74, BBSW @ 140-, BCE @ 122+, BHC @ 160+, CA @ 72, CWP @ 68-, ENE @ 70+, EXTR @ 99+, FCS @ 38+, INCY @ 280+, MANU @ 55, MDY @ 83+, MFNX @ 80, MOLX @ 55, MRX @ 49+, MWD @ 71, NVLS @ 57+, PSIX @ 50, RNWK @ 93, XLK @ 56....
I think if I had a gun to my head, 'best' puttables seem to be: AAPL, NVLS, AMGN, SAP....
and/but, took, VIAN, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", NATR, PZN, OMM, UNM, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, NTIQ, CCU, ETA, LRCX, ASML, HNCS, BOBJ, INCY, JNPR, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently ....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
STEI. 4 7/8 up 5/8, REV 8 1/4 up 3/4, TMG 6 3/4 up 9/16, TOM 12 1/4 up 7/8, GY 7 11/16 up 3/4, LOR 15 5/8 up 1 5/8, FTN 1.31, LUV 18 1/8, LZB 15 9/16, DEMP 4 5/16, higher, since last time here....and, BDX 34, BTX 19, COB 12-, HIV/CYM 10+, IMG 22, higher still....and, note, how, CPQ, ODP, pulled right back after hitting their 200 DMA, dig ? and, LUV, ABM, hit their 200 DMA....and, GLB, BIS, approaching their 200 DMA....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: WCC 8 1/2 up 1 3/8, ATHM 36- up 2 5/8, FIX 8 up 7/8, NBL 21.93 up 1.37, AVL 8 up 1/2, GRL 7.06, WMI., RAD 7, GOU 3.06, MNY 27, BMG 2 1/8, ECO 1 3/8, CONV, SAH 8 3/4, CNI., SMU, IOM, MHX, OCN, LZB, OH, BL, ABX, BMC, TOK, IM, LPX, ASHW, DHI., DOL, JEF, MUEI., CONV, IOM, PDQ, XRX, DAY, WDC, BGO, MHR, VGZ, GV, OCN, VBAC, RPM, NHR, HRC, CKR....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, get it ? those below must really strengthen or else....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) this list has been growing lately....AMTD, TSA, ABX, CBJ, FAX, JBM, BYX, USL, BGO, KRY, RAD, JEF, MHX, AIN, SMU, MSN, RPM, MHR, PDQ, RPD, GRL, LMM, PMC, RPD, NCI, GAP, OCN, WCC....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out: still giving you plenty more decliners, read them carefully: HGSI. +5, -25, INCY +4, -25, ROIA -10 1/2, MCOM +3, -16, SFE -7, SCNT -10, AMGN -7, NVLS -6, MFNX -5 1/4, SAP +1, -6, PTEL -5, ENE -5, BCE -4 1/2, MANU -4 1/2, MACR -3, IRF -2 1/2, MDY -2 1/2, MND/B -1 1/2, CA -3, CMC -1 1/2, TLCM -1, BCE -1 1/2, FCS +1, -2 1/2, IMN -1, UMG -1, ROIA -1, ENE -2, TNE -1, lower since last NL....
note, NYT, ETM, GE, GUC, LEH, MAN, TNO, CCU, CDWC, ADPT, fell to their 200 DMA....and, ROIA, SAPE, SAWS, AFM, VIA, falling towards its 200 DMA....and, TMPW, CWP, MOLX, 'nyse comp.', fell to their 'necklines' already....while, AXP, fell further to 125, ETM 42-, JNJ 72+, WMT 44, BUD 58-, IP 38-, NYT 39-, CG 56, BLS 35, TLAB 48, BEL 47, GTE 56, MTG 40-, OXY 16-, P. 36, MRO 21, mtg 40-, TX 44....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
This kind of intraday volatilty among extendeds is usually dirstribution, not acumulation, historically....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (RAD, HRC, CMX, etc., and, from Value Line list, CMX, STEI, HELE, PRGO, HMSY, DEMP)
Prec. Metals (CAU, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, CCH, SSRI, PAAS, etc., longer-term)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, SFI, NHR, NHI., NNN, KRC, CBG, PAG, BPP, BTR, ALI., RA, etc.) (also some Housing-relateds, below)
Retails/Apparel (BBA, ASHW, HMY, SRR, RDL, TSA, etc., and, from Value LIne, IFSIA, WWW, KWD, TOM, DXYN, PTX, KM, RBK, SRR, GTRC, longer-term)
Energy (SUN, NBL, GOU, etc.)
Financials/Banks (JEF, OCN, XRX, AMTD ?, SCH, etc.)
Railroad/Trans. (WNC, BNI, GT, GY, LUV, AVL, etc.)
* plus, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, Funeral, stocks, down the road....and, longer-term, some Food, Grocery, Steel, Cap. Goods, Auto-relateds....
I am also noting more 'busted consumer goods' stocks below....like, SOC, REV, HMY, etc. ? and, ahead at some point, Toys ? but almost NO "utilities", yet....
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed just above/below, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market....note, the vast majority of stocks are "repeats" each issue....if you just view "some" each day, in a few days, you will have seen all of them, and culled the best-looking ones, saving you much time and effort, yes ? it's up to you....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, add, CONV, SMU, TVX, BWL/A, RDL, XCL, NCI, NCS, IM, to,
also, "watching" list: a real mish-mosh....all are repeats from last time here: add, EGRP, PLCN, ASE, CNV, AW, CQ, FLO, FGH, IKN, LTV, MDC, PBY, MPH, PDX, RA, RWY, HON, LMT, HAS, LE, LOR, MLM, DSS, UNM, SUN, WAC, to, MCK, WMI, BMC, BDN, DFG, TSK, FRT, NDE, TOL, AGU, CPC, PZN, ETYS, EFX, WGR, PTX, PNW, NFS, URI, IMR, FMT, HGR, BGC, SRS, X., CGX, LII., ASL, JOB, DROOY, NGH, BSX, AIN, FSS, HII, DHI., MUEI, WDC, HS, FAX, SAH, TIE, UCI, IO, SGI, AN, NBL, LUB, MNY, TEI, PCP, BYX, OMI, CKR, CHKE, LAN, SFI, SRE, GSR, JBM ?, OH, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, was/is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
** New, as promised: among V.L. ideas after reading all 2000 pages (goodness, I do work hard for you), here are some depressed intriguing longsiders in favored I.G.'s:
apparel-retail-textiles: please see section (2) item (a) (6)....
and, 'health-relateds' above....I know, not much of a list, yet....but some of these, I also gave out herein at their previous lows, a while ago, and did real well for you herein, back then, remember ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, GBLX, MLNM, INCY, HGSI., AMG, CAM, GLM, Q, STM, LXK, AMT, MSF, AMAT, AZPN, DMIC, IIJI, LRCX, VSEA, WEBT, VYTL, VSAT, NXTV, MACR, QEDI, LVLT, IDPH, CY, IRF, to, ASML, ADTN, AMGN, BCE, BOBJ, CA, GMST, GNE, MANU, MFNX, MXF, NVLS, TQNT, WCII, FCS, ENE, HIT, MC, INRS, ITWO, MOLX, PLT, PME, PRGN, PSWT, PRRC, SNE, PXCM, PSIX, TNE, UVN, VO, VPHM, XLA, ADRX, TEVA, MCHP, SCMR, XLK, CCU, PLCM, EXDS, LMG/A, UMG, HNCS, SILK, GNET, ENGA, PTEL, PXCM, ZBRA, MRX, SFE, VNWK, MWD ?, SSTI, VITR, RNWK, CCN, MDP, AAPL, VIA, OMC, DIGL, ORCL, MDY, MGM, TV, TFSM, from recent past NL's,
and, are, ARTG, ALKS, ASWX, CNXT, CREE, JNPR, MYGN, USIX, TXCC, SILI, now all LOVED by every manager/analyst, also done on the upside ? hmmm....
* Just view some charts, and if stock is now near its high, without having broken above its topping pattern, it remains a Puttable here and now, right ?
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Retail, Foreign, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: given all the valuable, learnable-from recent comments and ideas above, none needed today...
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....