1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least: 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:1) Golds are pulling back as expected, towards probable buy levels ahead, watching for that.... 2) the March T-bond is again up to its previously-given-you-herein resistance level, around 96, interesting, since everyone believes rates should have been rising more ....3) as we have been watching for, some Steel stocks forming EVB's here....but it may still be too early for Paper, Chem., Copper, etc., but, I will keep eye on them for you, as usual.... 4) I am probably going to be a little early, giving you a list of potential EVB's as Banks/Financial/Insurance stocks, soon: in no particular order, BAC, CCR, JP, KEY, NFB, TMK, WM, CMA, BBT, BWE, GSB, CNB, DME ....5) I am also beginning to see some potential EVB's among depressed Capital Goods, Cyclicals, Chem., Waste/Pollution, stocks....to go along with Rails, and even some Airlines beginning to bottom --- just as "the experts' get super-bearish 'because price of Crude Oil so high', dig ? so, as usual let me be among the first/very few to alert you to these impending bottoms....again note, most all of these are ony the NYSE....
6) let me also be certainly, the fist/only to mention impending top in Closed-end M. funds, from the country of India (IFN, IGF, JFI).... 7) noting again, how all the major Intl. Oil stocks (like, CHV, TX, MOB, OXY, P, XOM, etc.) fell continuously, for months, even as Crude prices rose big-time....check them out, which I specifically gave you herein near highs as Puttables....more proof that 'fundamentals' cannot automatically be 'linked' to future stock price moves, etc. ...8) and, review all the extended Media stocks I gave herein, down recently, just as Value Line and all analysts fell in love with them near their highs, like, NYT, OMC, MHP, IPG, CBS, TMC, TNO, etc. ...9) last, more Semi. stocks beginning to look toppy, so I added some in section (7) below.... 10) recent takeover offers for Manor Care and Aetna, I predict(ed) are just the tip of a L.T. iceberg, because Health-care, Insurance, Bank stocks, are so cheap L.T., now, as I have already predicted here.... 11) and Barron's 3/6 mentioned CSX and NSC, railroads I gave you herein as 'watching for EVB', negatively, as usual....but I say, since 'fundamentally', their combined mkt. cap. is much lower than what they paid, years ago, for just Conrail, they are really CHEAP (L.T. only, of course). You think the govt. is going to let all the railroads disappear ? yeah, right.... 12) watch for 'fakeout breakouts' among topping Biotechs....could make catching them difficult, but think of the bigger picture, in perspective, with their parabolas.
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bob Pisani, Fri., 7:33 am, actually misled, showing chart of "UK", saying, "see that base in Feb. ? what a tease....very difficult calling the bottom in this, and the cyclical stocks..." Uh, what base ? and, what bottom ? ....2) good contrary signal, CBNC, Thu., mentioned how, on 4 of the last 5 Fridays, the Dow had fallen over 200 points each time, and therefore, Fri. 3rd would likely be the same thing....and, of course, the Dow then ROSE over 200 points, instead of falling....thanks for being wrong again, CNBC.... 3) please note, how, AAS and THC, pulled back in perfect "PSYCLE sm" behavior, after rising from base, then hitting their 200 DMA, where 'sold' herein, dig ? and, how, Housing stocks, continue(d) their large drops, INTO higher earnings....more proof that, a) 'assumed fundamentals' cannot automatically be 'linked' to future stock price moves, and, b) 'home prices' can rise, even as 'home building company stocks' prices, can fall....this is no different than is true with any other I.G., historically....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs.
illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:1) neat, exactly as I predicted in last NL: COMS stock did indeed 'correct nicely on the spin-off news", 107 to 81, fast....ditto, PALM....lesson learned again....of interest, PALM's stk. mkt. value was already worth much more, than its parent, COMS, is ! so, last Thu., I suggested watching a 'long COMS, short PALM' strategy, in jest....FYI, COMS (the parent) now has $ 100. per COMS share, just in PALM stock alone ! yikes....yet COMS itself, sold for $ 80, so you figure it out....as of this a.m., PALM already down from 160 to 70.... 2) ditto, with CCU, which I gave you as Put near high, recently got its first less-than-positive report in recent Barron's (article, "Fading Signal ?") -- only AFTER the fall, which we foresaw, as usual....re-read my "Downside" booklet.... 3) ditto, BIz. Week mag., 3/6, big bearish article on the 'pet-store' stocks.... again, only after they have fallen a lot, dig ? Even as they loved these same stocks near their highs, as usual, right ? next....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers:1) neat, a west-coast B-firm, Wedbush, Morgan (I used to make them a lot of money when I was a broker there, on TV) just came out with a new buy on our ASHW....unusual that they get one of mine right.... 2) recent Biz. Week, 3/6, "Qualcomm's Quandry", correctly pointed out caveats at its stock valuation, even with its recent pullback....questioning their assumption of seeing -- get this --- that 3 Billion wirelesss phones and devices will be sold, in the year 2010....uh, that's one for every 2 people on the planet (not too optimistic, huh), and, that their royalties, and their market share, have to fall, saying, its PE ratio still remains way above NOK, ERICY, MOT, etc. ...3) Merril's perma-bull Internet analyst, Henry Blodgett, in Barron's, 3/6, predicts that 75 % all Internet companies will disappear within 5 years (as I have also inferred, herein, remember ?), and 75 % will never make a dime.... 4) recent Barron's 3/6, a likely correct article, "Hopping on the REIT track", mentions how S & P also says how attractive some REIT stocks are here....as you know, I was the first to say so (God forbid they would publicze me/that in Barron's, don't get me started), but kudos to them anyway....they call them "compelling values"....I know, I know, they have no sexiness....Of course, after they are up, more people will begin to like them, down the road, as usual, right ?
5) I love this one: Barron's 3/6, Andrew Bary, supposedly gives the reason many major Drug stocks have been falling for months, as "many major drugs go off-patent, expiring soon." Hmmmm, gee, thousands of overpaid analysts, almost living in the clothes of these companies, missed this one thing that even the stupidest analyst should have known a while ago, right ? Yet, they all still loved these stocks, near their highs, yes ? they couldn't get enuf of them, yes ? I rest my case, again....I specifically gave out SGP, BMY, PFE, etc., near their highs, as puts herein, remember ? uh, just as they all love the Biotechs way up here....next.... 6) same issue Barron's, evidently Paine Webber came out with 51 potential takeover plays (kudos to PWJ from me) including some huge famous names, as, ONE, ALL, G., CLX, EK, HNZ, JCP....all in depressed I.G.'s we favor, yes ? ....7) Kudos to Barron's, 3/6, "outta Sight ? is Incyte's valuation justified ?" Correctly pointed out the folly of "INCY", parabolic, expressing concerns, etc. properly....check it out....
e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) none today....
As you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the
best 'individual' stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise,
mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media
messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just
getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to
even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info.,
anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % 'Gains' are just logical estimates for L.T., ITM options, if exist, and/or on margin, where no opitons exist....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically 'closed-out' trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and when you see "bal." here in section (3), that means, "the balance"
of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css"
means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:
stk.on.mgn. EX (8- to 15+) for VQ 175% Gain....1/2 pos. puts RNWK (90 to 65+) for 111% G....calls NBL (20+ to 26+) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. calls TOM (11+ to 15-) for VVVQ 90% G....bal. calls AMTD (15+ to 20-) for VVQ 80% G....puts UVN (107+ to 90-) for VQ 75% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. TGI. (23+ to 29) for 44% G....1/2 pos. puts BHC (160 to 149-) for VVQ 55% G....
and/but, longs, ATHM, USL, CBJ, FAX, HA ?, RAD ?, GRL no ?, and, puts, TLCM (25 to 21 to 25), ADTN, MFNX, SAP, AMG, VO, MGM ?, LVLT ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....but, still too many Q, S, losses....and still too many (?) patterns....and unusual QSL's, longside....I hope you have actually been VIEWING charts of winners and losers here, especially longsiders, to 'see' the patterns....
a helpful note: note how the QSL's, especially with Puts, could be clearly , quickly, and easily determined/seen, as many aborted top patterns broke simply and obviously on their charts, allowing you ample opportunity to cut for very small losses....tthis is how things are supposed to work, and protect your portfolio, when such things happen....so, you had very little damage on the Put side, and also had a bunch of puts Gains as well to balance, anyway....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
"Repeats": ABX @ 16 ?, ALI. @ 5+, AVL @ 7 1/2, BBA @ 3++, BGO @ 5/8, CAU @ 0.25, CCH @ 0.175, CKR @ 6+, CMX @ 4-, CPC @ 15, DEMP @ 4.06, DHI. @ 11+, ECO @ 1 3/8, ETYS @ 14+, FMO @ 14, FSS @ 15+, GOU @ 3.06, HELE @ 7, HRC @ 5-, IFSIA @ 4+, IM @ 11-, JBM @ 2.44, LII. @ 9+, LMT @ 17 1/4, LOR @ 14+, LZB @ 14+, MHX @ 15+, NCI. @ 9-, NCS @ 14+, NHR @ 8-, OCN @ 5++, OH @ 2 9/16, PDQ @ 7++, PMC @ 8, PRGO @ 7+, RAD @ 6+, RBK @ 7+, RDL @ 3, REV @ 7+, RPM @ 9++, SAMC @ 5+, SFI. @ 16++, SOC @ 4 1/8, SRS @ 1.44, SSRI. @ 1 9/32, STEI. @ 4+, SVRN @ 7+, TOK ?, TSA @ 2-, TVX @ 0.75, UNM @ 14, URI. @ 15+, WMI. @ 14++, WNC @ 13+, XRX @ 20+...."buy (only) low", right ?
a nice long list for you to choose from....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers
who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just
noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the
charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers
who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it
all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, DFG, CNC, SRR, UCI, RA, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops, for that matter....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) 1/2 pos. CBST @ 69-, CREE @ 198, 1/2 pos. GWRX @ 48, QEDI. @ 100-, 1/2 pos. SCMM @ 127+, STM ?, XLA @ 360-,
"Repeats": AMAT ?, LVLT no ?, MGM no ?, MOLX @ 57-, MYGN @ 156-, UMG @ 80....
and/but, took, MSTR, MXF, ENGA, PXCM, PRRC, CCN, GNE, INRS, IDPH, LXK, VSAT, SILI, VYTL, VPHM, DIGL, OMC, PSWT, TEVA, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", DSS, BGP, FGH, KPA, SFS, TRP, KWK, ATX, HEC, CQ, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, VPHM, MRX, HNCS, VIAN, TQNT, IIJI, GBLX, MDCC, SILI, ALKS ?, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones, which I miss, herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
EX 17 1/2 up 5 5/8 (S), AZC 1.06 up 0.19, MUEI. 14 5/8 up 2 1/8, HRC 5 3/4 up 15/16, CTHR 7 7/8 up 1 1/4, REV 10 up 1 3/4, BMC 5 5/8 up 7/8, HUM 7 5/8 up 1, AW 6 3/8 up 3/4, RBK 8 13/16 up 3/4, PCG 21 3/4 up 2, LPX 12 13/16 up 1, DHI. 12 3/8 up 3/4, LMT 18 1/2 up 1 1/2, BSX 18 13/16 up 1, RPM 10 9/16, WNC 15, GOU 3 13/16, GTN 1 13/16, DEMP 4 11/16, TOM 15, LZB 16 11/16, GY 8, LOR 15 1/2, FMO 14.93, MCK 19 11/16, CONV 11 13/16, VBAC 3 1/2, NCS 15 3/4, HELE 7 1/2, BBA 4, CNV 4, higher, since last time here....
while, GOU, GLB, NBL went just over its 200 DMA (S)....SUN approaching its 200 DMA....BTH revalidated....and, note, IRSN hit 13, CN 6 3/4, TMO 22, TXM 5, BL 18, higher still....I specifically told you it was a potential 'home run', the only time I ever said that herein....hope you got some, as it was unusually obvious, as I told my ex-clients and friends, and you....rare for me to do so, which, as I said at the time, meant something....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year, Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: BIS 2 3/8 up 1/2, MSN 15/16 up 3/16, AVL 8 5/8 up 5/8, TOM 14-, ASHW, WDC 5, MAH, XRX, NHR, WCC, SFI., DOL, FIX, LUV, BPP, WMI., RAD, BMG, ECO, SAH, IOM, MHX, OCN, OH, ABX, BMC, TOK, IM, PDQ, DAY, BGO, MHR, VGZ, GV, CKR....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, get it ? those below must really strengthen or else....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) this list has been growing lately....GRL, FMO, CPC, TSA, ABX, JBM, CNI, LAN, USL, BGO, KRY, RAD, MHX, TOK, MSN, OH, MHR, PDQ, LMM, PMC, NCI, 'golds' ....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out: still giving you plenty more decliners, read them carefully: CREE -19, QEDI. -14, XLA -32, MYGN -7, CBST -6 1/2, INCY -5, RNWK -4 1/2, +4, UVN -3 1/2 (S), MC -3, GWRX -2, SCMM -5, CMC -1 (S), MACR, PTEL -4, UMG -2, lower since last NL....while, see, TNO, CSC, AL, AA, AFM, UVN, BHC, fell to/approached their 200 DMA....and, WSM down further, to 17, wow....they all loved it at its highs....
Note: these 'points changes moves' have always been listed, by
"number of points falling-/rising+", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell
previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means
sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3)
above....I follow-up Every idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these
are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have
some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
This kind of intraday volatilty among extendeds is usually dirstribution, not acumulation, historically....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also,
remember, we do NOT "chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which
are still near their lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan",
one should probably not do the real cheapies, etc.
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (RAD, HRC, CMX, PDX, etc., and, from Value Line list, STEI, HELE, PRGO, HMSY, DEMP)
Prec. Metals (CAU, BGO, ECO, DAY, CBJ, CCH, SSRI, etc., longer-term, and still watching the 'bigger names' as well)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (MHX, HCN, SFI, NHR, NHI., NNN, KRC, PAG, BPP, BTR, ALI., etc.) (also some Housing-relateds, below)
Retails/Apparel (BBA, ASHW, HMY, RDL, TSA, RBK, etc., and, from Value LIne, IFSIA, WWW, KWD, TOM, DXYN, PTX, KM, RBK, GTRC, longer-term)
Energy (SUN, GOU, etc.)
Financials/Banks (OCN, XRX, SVRN, ACL, etc.)
Railroad/Trans. (WNC, BNI, GT, GY, LUV, AVL, etc.)
* plus, Computer Memory/Storage, R.E.-and Mtg.-relateds, "Housing-related", Gaming, Waste, Funeral, stocks, down the road....and, longer-term, some Food, Grocery, Steel, Cap. Goods, Auto-relateds, Aero./Def.
I am also noting more 'busted consumer goods' stocks below....like, SOC, REV, HMY, etc. ? and, ahead at some point, Toys ? and, as mentioned in section (2) above, Financials, Capital Goods, and Cyclicals, soon, as well ?
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off lows), diversified, w/close stops....these, plus the stocks listed just above/below, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above, comprise the "total" complete long-side buyable lists in today's market....note, the vast majority of stocks are "repeats" each issue....if you just view "some" each day, in a few days, you will have seen all of them, and culled the best-looking ones, saving you much time and effort, yes ? it's up to you....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order,
"watching" list: note, is growing, yes ? add, CCR, CNW, FTL, GSB, BID, MO, BS, KPA, RML, SSS, SUT, BN, TMK, BNE, SHW, KEY, KR, UST, RSG, UNP, JP, EEE, WEN, to, CONV, TVX, BWL/A, RDL, XCL, NCI, NCS, IM, EGRP, ASE, CNV, AW, CQ, FLO, FGH, IKN, LTV, MDC, PBY, MPH, PDX, RWY, LMT, HAS, LOR, DSS, UNM, SVU, WAC, MCK, WMI, BMC, BDN, DFG, TSK, FRT, NDE, TOL, AGU, CPC, PZN, ETYS, EFX, WGR, PTX, NFS, URI, FMT, HGR, BGC, SRS, X., CGX, LII., ASL, JOB, DROOY, NGH, BSX, AIN, FSS, HII, DHI., MUEI, WDC, HS, FAX, SAH, TIE, IO, SGI, AN, LUB, MNY, TEI, PCP, OMI, CKR, CHKE, LAN, SFI, SRE, GSR, JBM ?, OH, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead.... and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
The last list, was/is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They
normally only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have just a few minutes....How else are you going to
learn the patterns ? This is a positive thing, not a negative....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, AES, AVX, ETA, RMD, TEF, MTP, PCS, ANAD, COGN, CNCX, CTSH, APEX, TIBX, TERN, QLTI, SCMM, NVDM, MDCC, IVIS, GWRX, GBLX, ENTU, CBST, EMKR, CRGN, FDRY, to, GBLX, MLNM, HGSI., AMG, STM, MSF, AMAT, DMIC, IIJI, MACR, QEDI, IDPH, ASML, AMGN, BCE, GMST, HNCS, ENE, HIT, MC, ITWO, MOLX, PME, PSIX, TNE, VO, XLA, PLCM, LMG/A, UMG ?, NTIQ, INCY, SILK, GNET, CRA, PTEL, ZBRA, VNWK, WCII, TQNT, SSTI, RNWK, ORCL, MGM ?, TV, from recent past NL's,
note, list has been getting smaller, interesting, huh....
and, might, SILI, MSTR, ALKS, ANTC, AUDC, ASPT, ABSC, CSCO, CTXS, ELON, GENZ, VSTR, NXTL, NEWP, RIMM, QRSI, INHL, ITIG, MGIC, end up being 'fakeout breakouts' ?
and, just FYI, from 3/6 Barron's, huge Insider Selling, in, ARTG, APNT, MCLD, BRCM< CMTN, check their potentiqal top patterns out....
* Just view some charts, and if stock is now near its high, without having broken above its topping pattern, it remains a Puttable here and now, right ?
**** new **** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Electronics- specialty instruments, Energy/Oil Service, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Retail, Foreign, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, Home/Jewelry/Silverware/watches/china, High-PE Techs, Media/publishing, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....
NEW: Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I promised I would re-run "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm"", so, starting today, and for the next 7 NL's, here they are again:
"PSYCLE sm" stage 1: the cornerstone of the longside patterns, the "Depressed Base", often occurs when/after, the "Exhaustion V Bottom (EVB)", often turns into a flatter, or lazy 'saucer-shaped' formation, only after a BIG previous decline:
The key requirements for any stock in becoming potential lower-risk/higher- potential long Buy, are that, a) that stock HAS to have been MUCH higher before ....a stock which has never been much higher, and/or has not had a BIG fall, is NOT usually a stage 1 candidate....except in the last 2-3- years, when dozens of IPO's formed sideways bases, then went parabolic, which had never happened before in history), b) it has to have completely STOPPED falling, forming at least an EVB, often on high, cathartic volume (stage 7), but bases can also be double-bottoms, or "L" shaped bases, lazy teacup saucers, or a tight, thin, long depressed "rectangle" formation.... c) by nature, there MUST have been preceeding, or occuring now, a period of "bad news/fundamentals/stuff" having happened to that company/industry group....
d) in the base, after the cathartic low, volume ALWAYS dries up (at least after the EVB period) and stays low, with much less interest, and coverage, and care about it, from the financial community, and, e) remember, the initial, eventual rise out of the base, is likely to occur well BEFORE any 'reported improvement' in the fundamentals....f) down the road, and it may take weeks/months, we begin to see "volume pops", from time to time, as smarter bargain-hunters, buy from ignorant scared-sellers, as, eventually, more people who bought much higher, and/or held all the way down, refuse to sell their depressed stock down here, refusing to take losses, etc., becoming L.T. holders, dig ? ....g) eventually, the 'supply of stock outstanding' is more and more held, by people who are low-holders or new-buyers, neither whom are likely to sell, unless the stock rises a bunch anyway, yes ? Just the vagaries of intrayear supply and demand, can lead to occasional 50-100 % pops, even WITHIN a longer base, again, especially when the other stocks in that I.G. pop, even if the stage 1 stock is "not as good"....and, often, completely independent/regardless of any real, or perceived, 'internal, external, or market forces, economis, etc.'
Of course, the idea, provided you already know how long your desired/ideal holding period is, we want to buy, long, when, 1) the EVB or base, is also occuring in many OTHER stocks in similar Industry Groups, at the same time, giving us more power, 2) and/or "the market" has been whacked big, recently, and many EVB's or double-bottoms have formed, and, 3) we want to be sure The Financial Industry and Media doe NOT like the stock/company/group, fundamentally, with negative sentiment apparent (which is often positive for us, forward, of course).
Fact: historically, a much HIGHER % of depressed stocks DO indeed rise again, vs. disappearing, or never going up again !!! Only real unenlightened people think depressed stocks are "more risky somehow".... Any "new lows", or declines, which "break" the budding base/EVB/double-bottom pattern on that chart, unless the whole market is getting killed, are definite warning signs....so our "stops" are mentally pre-set, on any new low price below the most recent low....Unless the base is much longer, then, often, the base breaks to the far right, suckers the last holders out, then the stock rises as originally expected....this often occurs late each year, for our famous 'tax-selling bounces", right ?
Initial upside targets from stage 7/stage 1 lows, on real depresseds, are either, up to their still-falling 200 DMA, or the previously-broken-down-from price, which led to the final fall, in stage 7....Initial upside targets on longer-basing stocks, is either, the top of that longer base, where previous bounces have stopped before, or, the usual, probably 33-50 % back up, rise towards the previous year-or-two's high....i.e., if it fell from $ 30, to 6, the stage 1 rise, might reach 1/3 to 1/2 the-way back up towards 30 again, or to, about the $ 14 to 18 area, as just a general rule....Again, this is an ART, not a science.... additional things like, seeing bigger volume, or pops-and-pullbacks, showing it is ready for a bigger rise at some point ahead, help....obviously, the trick is to get as far to the "right side of the PSYCLE base" as you can, when buying....
So, now you know the briefest basics of stage 1, in most all stock's "PSYCLE sm"....oh, and, remember, everyone's perspective differs: stage 1 can be viewed as, say, only a 1-2-month basing/bottoming period after a big drop, if you are a S.T. trader, and/or, a 3-6-9-month basing period, if you are a longer-term investor....and last, a bigger previous drop, will normally lead to a bigger % rise, off the EVB/base low, which, I guess, is obvious....Hey, you'd be surprised how few people, even pros, know about stage 1 at all....hope this helped....it is worth thousands of dollars to you the rest of your life....I will reward you for multiple paid referrals for my materials, anytime, with thanks....
As I have said here before, it is sometimes part of the 'saucer' bottom formation on many depressed stocks, that a "minor new low" be made, in the middle, or at the end, of the pattern.....This is done to "sucker/keep out", many holders/ buyers, so the smart money can get in (often, the market maker at the lows), at the best price....
IMPORTANT: people keep trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time.... just get close, and do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my webpage and on the front of every Booklet.
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....