1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

As I mentioned last time, I felt the V.V.S.T. bottom signal was when some of my most-respected clients would not buy anything, Thu./Fri., and, of course, while not everything has bottomed, and even I had a few whipsaws (yuck), we have already had some nice bounces by Monday/Tueday....and, as i teach, the biggest quick % gains, are off such lows....as I have always said, better to be in the ones not broken, with stops, than not....

as I surmised, since 'the 95 %' were assuming break below NASDAQ 2,000 immediately, I figured that would not occur, at least not before more bounces, and, I personally was as worried as I get, psychologically, late last week, which also historically marks 'toes into the water' bottoms....and, thankfully from a PSYCLE p.o.v., big headline 3/5 L.A.T. was, "is NASDAQ's crash just the start of something bigger (worse) ?", came right at the V.S.T. lows, yes ? now, we may still end up with a longer H & S bottom ahead, but it WILL occur....actually, there are already a bunch of recent longside winners given, acting fine, in section (4) below....

So looks like the pendulum will shift again -away from 'defensives', into Techs, S.T. anyway....have been trying to take advantage of this probable trend ....and it ain't been easy....but I am tired of aplogizing for an aberrative period, because, as I have been saying lately, even with some losses, it is still more important to be further invested down here, with stops, and having had some puts, than not to have been in enough, where suitable....

it is interesting all the 'scary' stories/items recently, at one time, terrifying nearly everybody - again, only after big stock price drops in Techs - and remember all the unpredicted-by-them drops in cyclicals, consumer, trans., and other stocks, in 1998 and 1999 and 2000....but the NASDAQ is already down about as much as in 1973-74....hmmmm....I would not be underestimating the ingenuity and talent in the Tech. stock co. area in this country....and am glad to be reading the neverending-since-1970's parallels to 1929, etc., we always see after the horse is out of the barn....

LAT 3/4, "Down market is battering investors' psyches", said drop had "seen $ 4 trillion disappear" - but, to whom went, the $ some lost ?

always try to also VIEW charts of the ones we 'just miss' to learn the patterns even further, as they were also given herein specifically as well, yes ? more proof of "PSYCLE sm" power/value....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) CNBC gal, Fri. 11 am, said Chems. and Steels, were recent best performing IG's, which I was the first to give out herein for you, yes ? .... 2) you know I have been among the surper-few who are looking at some Foreign and Asian stocks longside - well, CNBC, Fri. showed Nikkei chart back 10 years, and both analysts called it (incorrectly) 'a falling knife' - when anyone can easily see a potential double-bottom (sound familiar ?) with the 1998 crisis low ! neat....yet, the Nikkei. made a minor new 15-year low, with an analyst saying, "no one has a clue how the TEch. stocks will do from here".... 3) as I figured, seeing more potential Puttables among extended Apparel, Drug Stores, Food-relateds, Utils....as usual, I am the first/only to put this out (pun intended).... br>
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) 3/5 L.A.T., front-page article (again, way too late and low, as usual), about worries about 'when/if boomers cut back on their stock market investments, could spell trouble' - when, in fact, the vast majority of those effects may already have taken effect; i.e., all those Tech stocks are ALREADY down -50 to -90 %, yes ? So, the 'if' questiojn they pose should already be here, right ? One yuppie interviewed said, "history shows these depressed stocks will eventually rise again, so all the stocks I want are 'on sale', today"....another mentioned, also correctly, 'stocks don't go down forever, either." Last, yuppies interviewed said they will be more conservative - uh, exactly what does that mean ? they won't buy depressed scary stocks near their lows, but, instead, only good-seeming ones already way up ? ....2) LAT 3/4, "consumer sentiment nears 5-year low", more worries....again, this reading did not come out at the highs in the NASDAQ, did it ?, but only after big drops in stock prices....the poller said, "these figures make no sense" - I agree....remember, I teach to watch what people DO, not just what they SAY, in spending, etc. Also, recall, the last time those figures were this low, was in 5/96 - just off the R.E. bottom out here, yes ? hmmmm....

3) in yet another S.T. bottom sign, CNBC's gal reporter, Mon., said, "well, I hope it won't be a toughj year for Tech. stocks going forward...." When, of course, it already has been....they never learn....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or stock price moves:
1) for edecdaes, people have been trying to 'seasonalize' stock price moves (please read my Booklets - 'scenarios'), and, guess what ? heard NO one liking it at lows, but please view HRB, up steadiily./nicely recently - just before tax season....hmmmm....where were all those 'obvious bulls at the lows', ay ? they all missed it.... 2) front-page LAT 3/4, "Taiwan's bank debt starting to raise concerns", again, comes out only after big drops in their stocks, RE, etc., yes ? more scary stories, but their 'stock prices' look bottomy still....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) Fri. 12;27, on CNBC, Steven Leuthold, someone I have respect for, who, along with me, awas among the few to be bearish near last years' parabolic tops, now says we could be close to buys long, and, that, in the nine past years of last several decades, when the S & P earnings rate was negative, the S & P stock index ROSE every year ! and by +10 to +20 %.... 2) L.A.T. 3/5 chart showing "still no shortage of major B--firm bulls " - without mentioning, that, of course, ALL firms have ALWAYS been mainly massively bullish most all the time going back decades, anyway ! Actually, that more than a few firms listed have as much as 30-40 % in bonds of cash lately, IS about as BEARISH as firms get, dig ?

3) and, more 'firms lowering opinions after big drops", in, INTI, CMRC, ORCL, SEBL, ITWO....great calls from the highs, guys.... 4) Bernie Schaeffer, until recently pretty bullish again, is now officially a L.T. bear....first time for him since AFTER the 1987 crash....hmmmmm....wish I knew his VLT past T.R., ....he says S & P breaks below recent low and its 40-wk. MA, and says sentiment not bearish enuf for a bottom....but you probably still do not have enuf Puts, either way, right ? ....5) Hot Stix, the web NL who said we had an impending bottom NASD, now says, "danger, once below 1860 NASDAQ, no support to 1400" - but I hear that from others as well....wish I knew their past T.R.'s....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) frojnt-page LAT, article on the Irvine Co. creating much smaller new apartments - 512 sf at $ 985/mo., and 664 sf, at $ 1250/mo. rent, yikes.... 2) LAT 3/4, headlines, "PCG refinances with $ 1 billion loans from GE, paid $ 500 mmm previously in default, and $ 400 mm L.O.C.", and, "EIX skips $ 711 mm power payment, has cash on hand of $ 1.6 billion, but, if had to pay everything it owes, cash balance would be negative -$ 850 mm"....PCG also agreed to consider selling its transmission lines to Calif., as EIX has....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....