1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
I am now reading some of the most bullish "scenarios" I have ever seen, as if the multi-year rise of some stocks we have already had, is just a warm-up, and, as a fall-back position for those tomes, that "the rest of the markets' stocks might play catch-up", which is what I see here as more likely....Either way, I hear/read very, very few truly bearish/toppy missives....A few big prognosticators had today, Monday, as, in their opinions, "guaranteed to be liftoff to a skyrocketing rise", yet, again, we see few new highs among extended stocks, and no such thing, yet....Those people seem to be trying to "talk", or "will", already-extended stocks, even much higher....Unlikely....But, we're still buying our depresseds, and looking to Put, our extendeds, with stops, based on patterns that has existing and worked, for decades, the vast majority of the time....
An idea: After you have VIEWED the charts of all sec. (3) ideas, if you have time, do take just a few minutes to try to view a Different bunch of stocks from sec. (6) and (7) below, each day, instead of trying to view all of them at once ....There is NO excuse for you not have viewed the charts of every single stock in sec. (3), or (6) or (7), over a period of time, especially since many stocks have BEEN on the lists, many times, for weeks, already !!! Again, YOU are responsible for knowing when/if, for instance, a Puttable stock falls to its Moving Averages/potential support....I have taught you how, many times, yes ? See ? Perhaps you ARE learning a lot, and if so, I applaud you....there are plenty of places on the web for free historical price charts....Use them !
IMPORTANT new note: since most all longs, and most all puts, have similar chart patterns (otherwise, they wouldd not be listed, right ?), viewing, say, a bunch, each day, should yield you plenty of "actionable" stocks, anyway, without you having to view every single stock, every single day....my software allows me to follow about 500 stocks, and when they hit certain pre-entered upside/downside prices, I am alerted....then I view just those charts, at those times, maybe takes 10 seconds each, to see whether I should act, buy, sell, log that price move into my brain, or watch it more closely, etc. Simple, quick, effective....
Also, Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable,
staged, stocks, longs and puts, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm"
patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that
best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR
educational/trading benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most
Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And note, the
"learning/feeling/sentiment" items, are in section (2) and (8). Longer lists and
I.G.'s, are in section (6) and (7)....and all follow-ups, are in sections (4) and
(5). Eight, Very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage.
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) Gosh, I hope you have not been impatient (an emotional reaction we try to avoid) with our Oil Service stocks, and are "in"....the Phila. "OSX" Oil Service Index, itself, has/had a base, in the $ 47-50 area, since last August 1998....with 5 touches of the base, without breaking down, dig ? But, as say herein, some stocks are approaching their 200 DMA's already, so unlikely to explode above those S.T. resistance levels much, on "this" move, yet, but more likely, after S.T. pullback after this rise ends, S.T. If I had to "scenarioize" (and you know I hate to), I can see some of these stocks approaching their Oct./Nov. '98 levels at least, later in 1999.... 2) note the S.T. pop in Utilities, as expected, but the DJUA still has resistance overhead around the 305 to 307 area, and, notice how the T-bond yield rise stopped right at 5.75 %, as expected/prdicted....Note: in each of the last 3 years, Bond yields rose from mid-Feb., then declined again by April....seasonal ? ....3) and cash Gold itself still looks like a nice S.T. saucer base, as I have been saying here....it actually looks now, like the Oil Service chart looked, several weeks ago.... 4) recall last time here, when I mentioned a long-term double-bottom in the NYSE's A/D line itself, going back to last Fall ? well, it's happening, for some of the depresseds, for us.... 5) let me also be among the first/only, to call a L.T. "PSYCLE sm" bottom, in many Brazilian stocks.... 6) also, am watching for some EVB's among Utilities, those still right near their recent lows, for bounces.... 7) also note added more depressed Financial (and, Nursing Home, stocks, as double-bottoms), to sec. (6) below, and some Extended Cleaning and Food and Apparel- Retail, stocks in sec. (7) below.... 8) some of the "data storage" stocks which I caught as longs in 1997, then as puts in 1998, then as longs in 1998-99, are pulling back towards potential buy levels, but are just not yet ready.... you know, stocks like, KMAG, WDC, RDRT, MXTR, etc., dig ? ....9) and, last, some "Auto-parts" stocks are improving, as well....a new potential I.G. ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, improper comments from Financial media, reporters, etc.: 1) I hate Fundamental "links", but, in my assuming the DELL/IBM news turns out to be a "hook" (explained in my booklet), Barron's 3/1, Andrew Bary article, pointed out exactly what I mentioned here recently: that is, that PC growth is slowing, and lower prices are fading higher unit growth, causing more disappointments in earnings for momentum traders....Gosh, can you believe I just said that ? ....2) Barron's, also 3/1, as exactly as I teach in my booklets, Laszlo Birinyi, did more recent research, showing that quarterly earnings/profit trends, have little or NO historical relationship, to any D.A.F.P. quarterly movements in the S & P Index....Among other things, he pointed out that the S & P had its worst year of this decade, 1994, while corporate profits had their strongest year of the decade....and, coversely, the S & P did real well in 1991, which was the worst year for corporate earnings....the continuing "PSYCLE sm" lesson: there are almost NO direct "links", between stock price moves, and any fundamentals/news items/values !!! But, of course, he also had NOTHING of helpful substance to say about future stock prices from here....oy.... 3) I heard, last week, specifically, from CNBC, Barron's, Hambricht & Quist, and a big B-firm, that the Internet stocks are now somehow a "safe haven" (that's a quote, folks), and some B-firms have actually raised their price targets for several biggies....
4) same Barron's, 3/1, from an "index-only" p.o.v., a study going back to 1987, showed that "intraday volatility" of the S & P, that is, number of days that the S & P traversed more than 1 %, and 2 %, in a day, HAS made a new modern high ....So, I do stand corrected on this item....in 1987, the S & P moved 1 %, on 68 % of the trading days, and in 1990, on 61 % of the days....and in 1997 and 1998, it moved more than 1 % in a day, 69 % and 70 % (in between, 1 % days were MUCH rarer) ....but, in 1999, so far, it has moved intraday, more than 1 %, on 97 % of the days, wow, and more than 2 % intraday, on 41 % of days....yikes....Among reasons given, were, loosening of exchange "trading collars", earnings disappointments, and more day-trading....Like all trends, such volatility will be temporary, as well.... 5) Last, Barron's, 2/22, Cheryl Einhorn had a nice treatise regarding a possible bottom coming among "commodity producers"....As to Copper, which I am also looking to bottom ahead as you know, all fundamentally, of course, she mentioned, each one-cent move in copper, equals 17 cents a share in earnings at Asarco, its stock selling at 1/3 of its book value, and how their cost of production continue to decline big-time, and that the next two years will set "consumption" records for copper, for the 15th consecutive year....hmmmm....we'll be watching "AR"....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "fundamentalists/
companies/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) a good "PSYCLE sm" pattern lesson: O.C. Register, 3/4, article on how ICN Pharm., takes a huge write-off of foreign assets (it's a long story)....note, how, I gave you ICN as a Put, around $ 45-50., Spring 1998, when Wall St. loved its prospects, as it got FDA approval opf a drug (at its top, get it ?), then, gave it you you herein as a Long Buy around $ 15., late Summer 1998, when those same analysts hated it, saying their foreign assets would drag the company down....and, recently, they love it again, up around its $ 26., 200 DMA, dig ? the pattern/sequence never changes.... 2) Barron's, 3/1, recalled how, just two months ago, their year-ahead "blue-ribbon panel" of Interest-Rate prognosticators, unanimously predicted I.R.'s would FALL 0.5 % to 1.0 % lower --- WRONG, in perfect "PSYCLE sm" contrariness....on avg., their "panel of experts" (sic) is already off, by 0.75 %, in just 2 months....some experts....yeah, right....gee, they could have called us.... 3) Barron's, 3/1, Gene Epstein's article, "Relax, the Economy Can Stay Strong Even if the Stock Market Fizzles": oy.... Reporting on what analyst Jason Benderly said, as to why, in his opinion, the "stock market wealth effect" does NOT, and will not, matter (an opinion I differ with, big-time), who says that, because, in his opinion, the S & P would have to decline 30 %, in order to hurt U.S. GDP growth by 1 %, Housing prices have "little chance of declining (from up here) the next time Mr. Greenspan sneezes"....hmmmm....Gee, it seems, Home prices DECLINED, in some places big-time, from 1990 to 1997, while "big stocks" ROSE a ton during that same period, yes ? Once again, an improper "linkage" attempt, you should be aware of....in a long, semi-useless article in a major financial periodical. Do you believe that, because human nature has most people spending/borrowing against at least portions of their "paper stock market gains", future home price gains may indeed be affected negatively, when/if we get larger corrections in big stocks ? we shall see....
d) more, late, and/or misleading, Brokerage/NL writer/Analyst comments: 1) I love it....Alex, Brown, finally lowered their incorrect opinion on COMS, from "buy", to market perform" (a cop-out if I ever heard one), only after its big drop, which I predicted for you herein....but now, of course, COMS is around its support, going back a while, yes ? ....2) KWHY-tv, last week, Ralph Bloch, RJF's chief technician, and one of the few I have valued over the years, has been pretty bearish recently, saying still too few advancing stocks, too few new highs, to support a huge new rise, in big stocks, or bonds....
As you have seen the last several months, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, technically/sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming a "1/2 and 1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "Covered
(previous) Short Sale", where no puts options existed....
bal. puts NVLS (73 to 57) for Q 111% Gain....bal. puts LRCX (38 to 29) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts ETEC (55- to 44+) for VQ 100% G....bal. puts GTSG (64 to 51) for Q 100% G....puts XRX (62- to 52+) for VQ 100% G....bal. puts RATL (34+ to 26+) for Q 100% G....bal. puts ART (28+ to 23+) for Q 90% G.... bal. puts MHK (40- to 31+) for Q 125% G....1/2 pos. calls BTC (12+ to 15+) for 66% G....bal. puts JBL (38- to 31) for Q 90% G....1/2 pos. calls DRC (29- to 36-) for VVQ 111% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. REF (6++ to 8++) for VVQ 50% G....stock TXB (3+ to 5- to 4-) for small % G....
and/but, longs, CSRE, ALR, PIR, HXL, and, puts, CNET, NOVL, ESRX, AMGN, NEON, SDLI., COX, GDT, POS, for VQ, very small losses, of little overall consequence to a properly diversified portfolio....some of these cut PUT sales were "immediate"....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
just prefer not to buy any Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns
are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying
those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less
risk, and similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right
? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short
holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" have always been listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then losses....
(new ones) 1/2 pos. APM 3 13/16, DETC @ 8++, GHM @ 7+, LKI. @ 7+, LTV @ 5+, NWK @ 8 1/4, OS @ 9+, OXY @ 15, PRT @ 8, TAM @ 6, UQM @ 4+, WTT @ 1 9/16....
(NOTE--- Read full list again, carefully, for several New, "re-added" repeats) ADM @ 15, AG @ 6 5/16, ALN @ 4 13/16, AOI. @ 2 1/2, ARG @ 8.06, AZC @ 9/16, BBA @ 3 13/16, BEZ @ 19, BGO @ 11/16, BIR @ 4 1/8, BLM @ 2.06, CAU @ 0.31, CCH @ 3/16, CFS @ 4.06, CLCDF @ 9/16, CNJ @ 16+, COL @ 17+, CXI. @ 5/16, DAY @ 3/16, DSGIF @ 3-, ECO @ 1 11/16, ESOL @ 1 5/16, FLS @ 15 9/16, FNL @ 5 1/4, FWC @ 12, GGC @ 15-, GW @ 3/4, HBI. @ 5 3/16, HDG @ 1.06, HL @ 3 9/16, HMY @ 6, IGL @ 19-, IMG @ 5 7/16, ISCO @ 1.06, ISV @ 1.06, KTEC @ 6+, LXR @ 15/16, MB @ 2 5/16, MLP @ 9+, MRII. @ 2.06, NGX @ 1/2, NOV @ 2.06, PAH @ 5+, PAM @ 3 5/8, PIN @ 4+, PSFT @ 18-, PZN @ 20-, SAA @ 0.75, SDC @ 13.06, SSC @ 11/16, SSM @ 14+, TBP @ 5.06, TMO @ 13 5/8, UMR @ 11/16, UPR @ 8 11/16, VGZ @ 3/16, WCCI. @ 3/4, WLM @ 9, ZITL @ 2 13/16....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or low-priceds ...."buy low", right ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide" Booklet, and herein, countless times, you should already understand/know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....I give it all, for all your situational needs....
*** therefore, remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every
time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns
....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, OLGC, RAL, BOY, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol: (new ones) ARMHY @ 122, AXNT @ 37-, CLX @ 129+, EAT @ 29+, HRL @ 37+, KR @ 64, LBTYA @ 54+, LNC @ 96-, LSI. @ 28+, LVCI. @ 30-, MCLD @ 41-, SDS @ 41+, SEQU @ 21-, SYY @ 28+, TMPW @ 58, TWTR @ 38-, TWX @ 66++, VRTY @ 38-,
(and, note, some "new" repeats again) ADTC @ 41+, ALSI. @ 68, AMCC @ 46+, ATHM @ 121, BBY @ 95+, BMY @ 66+, CNCX @ 48+, DY @ 40+, FRX @ 51++, KSS @ 69++, LVLT @ 60, MKL @ 186-, OK @ 46-, ORCL @ 38+, PSIX @ 38-, SFXE @ 61+, SGP @ 57-, TAGS @ 43-, TJX @ 31+, UMG @ 57+....
note how some of these "repeated" stocks, popped back up, allowing us to catch them, again, yes ?
For the umpteenth time: recent pops are giving us (i.e., YOU) mutliple opportunities to catch some of our Puttables, as some stocks go, say, from, 60, to 56, to 60, to 57, to 60, to 58, to 60+, etc., get it ? each time, provided it does not break its top pattern, it will be (re)added herein, around 60, get it ? it will also be listed in sec. (5) below as +3, or -4, etc., in the meantime, each move, followed-up, get it ? good....
and/but, Took, RTRSY, GBLX, ZION, TSFW, NTRS, NTLI., CNET, AMO, AGN, PKS, VMC, SKO, NAB, HD, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here).
IMPORTANT: sometimes, just in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....And, of course, sometimes suggested stocks hit their "buy, or put" levels in between NL's, in which case they are still added, as above....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them if their immediate patterns have aborted....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's, then incorrectly blaming me, when that part of the process is your own doing.
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", PCAR, SLVR, ACX, MLT, HCC, BKI., FHS, BRI., LMT, SLF, NOI., GIS, PB, HP, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PWAV, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. Also, by viewing such charts, tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
AZC 12/16 up 3/16, PLC 4 1/8 up 3/4, TAM 7 1/4 up 1 3/8, WND 7 1/8 up 1 1/8, IDTC 14 1/2 up 2 1/4, BTC 16 up 1 5/8, SDC 16 1/4 up 1 3/4, RXSD 17 3/8 up 2 1/4, TOY 18 up 1 7/8, NE 14 1/4 up 1 3/8, ATW 20 up 2, BJS 17 3/8 up 1 5/8, UPR 10 3/8 up 1 1/4, BIR 4 3/8 up 3/8, CNC 31 7/8 up 2 1/2, DRC 35 5/8 up 2 5/8, DETC 9 1/4 up 3/4, ARG 8 1/2 up 1/2, OS 10 1/8 up 1, ESV 10 1/2 up 7/8, RDC 10 5/8 up 3/4, FGI. 12 5/8 up 3/4, NEM 18 5/8 up 3/4, WAC 24 3/8 up 1, HAL 33 3/8 up 1 3/8, FHCC 16 1/2, WHR 45 1/2, FJ 29 5/8, SCZ 14 3/8, BHI. 21 1/4, TMO 14 1/8, SCZ 14 1/4, GSB 21, REF 8 3/4, XTO 6 3/4, including our Oil Services, up/further, since last time here....
note: please try to appreciate, that I have some subscribers who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....
IMPORTANT, new: note how many of our Oil Service stocks are popping towards their 200 DMA's....when.if they get there, they will, still likely pull back again thereafter, and THEN, I think, a bigger rise may unfold....down the road, at least towards their 1998 highs, but that's later....separately, note how BTC, UWW, TOY, GSB, BJS, HAL, HOT, have risen to, or near, their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, HMY 6 3/4 up 7/8, ISSI. 3 up 3/8, KTEC 6 7/8 up 5/8, CWC 8 3/8 up 7/8, CYM 11 1/2 up 1, MEA 29 dn 1, UBIX 6, TOY, FLH, MRVC, COL, BEZ, WHR, MANU, PAH, PAM, CENT, WLM, GYMB, SAMC, APFC, IGL, BUNZ, KTEC, AIMM, GKI., MGN, FTL, CCLR, PIR, TAROF, MAH, WFT, ELY, ALN, NPRO, BLM, TFN, COE, NPSI., NDE, GGC, MCL, CFS, UMR, UPX, ISCO, KRY, IMG, SAA, WKGP, FNL, LXR, SUL, SSC, CCH, PB, Metals....some of these are also in "ms" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) COE, ICI., HIV, MAH, DSGIF, HIV, DRC, HXL, MANU, WORK, MEA, ADGO, NPRO, CMND, ESOL, CENT, NOV, ADM, HDG, SAMC, TMO, VLO, HBI., AOI., MRII., GGC, SAA, MSN, TPS, TBP, UPX, EAR, IMG, RYO, UPX, GDC, NDE, LFB, IGL, FLS, LXR, WKGP, MCL, CYM, SSC, SOC, CAU, ISV, ICI., WS, AG, MB, cheap golds, oil services....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
*** this list, for the last time: see how, BRCM, CDWC, SNPS, THQI., XRX, MHK, ART, BCE, HLI., MC, fell to their 200 DMA....and, GTSG, METZ, MOB, SBL, UFS, approached their 200 DMA....and, TCOMA, ASML, fell to its 50 DMA....and, PDX, fell, more, to 24, IDXC to 14+, NSIT 22, SUT 24, LAF 31, DFG 28, PLL 16, GPSI. 38, and, MCK to 60....and, INTC -6 (S), COMS -7 (S), CTSH (S), EGRP, AMTD, LXK, RAD, fell lower still....and, PLCE, CPWR, ECLP, FLEX, PAYX, fell anyway, after fakeout breakouts....all given you herein, near their highs....also see 'bouncers' below....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points falling", from
most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for Your Benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
**** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and
present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....period....
* but, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness (sow): (some new names here) many, many bounces: remember, as I have been saying, almost all Puttables must, still, break below their recent lows, as "follow-through", obviously, including, PMCS +8, SUNW +7, ADLAC +4, AMCC +5, TLAB +3 1/2, VCELA, RTRSY, BOBJY -2 1/2, ATHM +10, PMCS +4, VOD -4, +4, PEGS, RATL +2, -3 (S), NVLS -3 1/2 (S), ORCL -1 3/4, PROX, SLVN +1, CCU -2, +2, AFL, MKL -1 1/4, KLAC +4, CNCX, SGP, JCOR, SYKE, MTNT, TXN -3, +2, ADCT, LLTC -5, +2, EMC +3, TCOMA, QWST, IMNX +3, LVLT, TAGS, CMVT, XRX, CTAS, KSS +2, GEOC, ETEC -2, +2, MHP +2, -1 3/8, GMH, PERC -1, PSIX, JCOR +2, GDT, CSGS +1, TYC -2, +2, TWX, XMCM, ZD, FRX, IIN, UMG, BEL, GE +2, UMG, TD, OK....
again, we need to see many stocks break below recent lows/necklines, and, so far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? seeing too many bounces, but note, how few still make new highs, yet, right ?
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE: obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
"Leisure/Entertainment": (besides, ELY, PIN, PRD,
WCCI.), found some other real cheapies in the Mansfield charts, which I share
below here.
Computer/Techs: please see Techs, listed, in the "watching" section, just below.
(Y2K) "Year 2000": (ZITL, SAA, UBIX, CMND, Only near recent lows)
Prec.Metals (NGX, TVX, GLDR, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, some real cheapies, riskier, most need more work/time)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel, Copper) (LTV, WLM, BS, BIR, RTC, CSE, FNL, GGC, AGR, IGL, AG, OS)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (EEX, UMR, ESV, RDC, SDC, UPR, NE, etc., near their recent lows, Only....many more on bigger pukllbacks again....also see section just below here)
Biotech/Health/Medical (TAROF, FHCC, NOV, TOX, CCLR, TXB, HIV, COL)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (KFI., MSN, BLM, HBI.)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (HMT, LOD, PAH, PAM, SER)
And, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E.I.T./Financials/ Mtg.-type/R.E., stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends (more boring, though), may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, add, HPT, SRE, ESC, to, FCH, MT, CNO, AIJ, EOP, SMT, WIR, LTC, LSN, BD, PRT, SMT, WDN, RTC, CPT, ARI., NHR, BRE, AAC, ALF, AML, BNP, BRI., CPP, CRO, PMC, BED, ENN, FBG, NDE, JPR, MAA, RFS, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy
list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": OLGC, RAL, BOY, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY:
added many more (hey, its what the market tells me to add), added, ABH, BMS, CAS, CBZ, COC, FHS, FLM, FTR, GHM, HWS, KNE, MLT, MXTR, MWHS, NOI., OEI., OXY, PLX, RCGI., RJF, SEV, SMD, TMD, WAXS, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) AAC, ACX, ADGO, ADM, ALN, ALR, AOI., APAC, APM, ARG, ATV, ATW, BCP, BEZ, BKI., BMC, BSX, CAI/B, CFS, CFK, CGN, CLCDF, CNB, CNJ, COMS, CS, CWC, CXI., CYB, DE, DETC, DRC, EAR, ECO, EEX, ELCO, FCH, FGI., FJ, FLH, FRTE, FTL, GDC, GGC, GNSA, GW, HCC, HDG, HL, HMY, IAD, IDTC, IMG, ISCO, ISSI., ISV, JLG, LKI., LXR, MAH, MB, MEA, MGN, MLP, MLT, MRVC, NEM, NOI., NPSI., NSI., NVX, NWAC, NWK, ORI., PB, PCAR, PLC, PMA, PRD, PSFT, PZN, RML, RSC, SAMC, SCZ, SOC, SSM, SSN, SWK, SWW, SYC, TAM, TAROF, TBP, TGX, THC, TMAR, TMO, TPS, TXM, UAG, UPX, UQM, UWW, VRC, WAC, WEC, WFT, WHR, WKGP, WIT, WLV, WND, WTT, VSNR, XTO, Z., ZITL, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls., Foreign, Health, Energy, Airlines").... some here, some Not just yet, as some still need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....
Remember, this is just a "watching" list !!! they only become Buys in sec. (3) above, when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....note, we re-added some previously given names, above here....
these are longer, tighter depressed bases, directly from longer-term, 2 1/2-year, "Mansfield" charts (note, no sexiness here):
health, medical/pharm. (AIMM, MRII., NPRO, TAROF, VMRX)
comp./tech./s'ware: (CSRE, GTSI., LSKIC, MIDI., KTEC, PNCL)
leisure/entert.: (SHOW, FAIRE, ONST, WCCI., (all real risky/cheap)
capital goods: (DETC, DSGIF, FAVS, ISCO, JPEI.) (most are bigger companies)
Note, some of these have high $ cash/share, little or no debt, and/or earnings, for those of you who value those things....others are REAL
cheapies/very risky....there are others I am checking, with similar patterns,
will let you know....mind you, these are NOT "very-short-term" trades....but some
subscribers wanted some longer, depressed basers, so here they are....just
providing something for every need....but not very sexy....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on
some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this
time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take
weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or
rise, dig ?
Fuller, Potential Puts
list, by Industry groups where practical, near their highs ONLY --- do NOT "chase
down" much:
note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are
the ONLY Puttables here, all others have been removed....
**** add, ABOV, ARMHY, ATHM, BEM, CLX, DLJ, EAT, ECILF, ECL, FDC, HRL, IDPH, INSP, KR, LSI., LNC, LVCI., MSS, ODP, OSI., PHCC, PKE, ROST, ROV, SDS, TMPW, TWTR, USAI., VCI., VRTY, WCOM, WHIT, WTSLA, to,
("repeats") AAS, ADCT, AFL, ALSI., AMGN, AMO, AOL, ASML, AXNT, BBOX, BBY, BMY, BOBJY, CCL, CI., CM, CNMD, CNCX, CSCO, CSGS, CTAS, CTL, CYCLD, DCLK, DH, DISH, DNEX, DS, EDMC, EMC, ENE, ESRX, FRX, GE, GILTF, IMNX, INTU, JCOR, KSS, LBTYA, LUK, LVLT, MACR, MANH, MCLD, MCRL, MFNX, MHP, MKL, MLNM, MNMD, MRIS, MTNT, NDN, NEON, NOK/A, NTLI., NXTL, OK, ORCL, PERC, PKN, PMCS, PROX, PWAV, QRSI., QWST, RDA, RNWK, SAPE, SEEK, SEGU, SEPR, SEQU, SFE, SJR, SLVN, SPLS, SUNW, TAGS, TCOMA, TD, TJX, TWX, TY, UMG, UNPH, USM, USTC, UVN, VOD, VTSS, WPO, XMCM, XRX, YNR....
Note, added still more ---again, this is what the market is telling me to show you is happening....obviously, some of these are already down, and may be too late if not Put already, yes ? Note, we are also revisiting more previously given stocks....obviously, a large list here, as I told you to expect recently....VIEW the charts, before acting....take the time....my goodness, how else are you going to learn the patterns ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and, understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least Semi-parabolic, Retail, Cap. Goods, Blue Chips, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Consumer, Banks, Insurance, Finance, Computer, Internet, Banks, High-PE Techs, and all Tele.-Commun., near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW item: all day Fri. Mar. 5th, CNBC had segments about the phenomenon of "Day Trading", which, as you should know, I am still against on principle, for many logical historical reasons, too long to go into in depth herein (maybe another time, I can rehash my litany of reasons)....But, overall, you gotta understand: in ANY human endeavor, there is very likely to be a normal, "bell curve" distribution of "results" spread among such traders, yes ? Sure, 50 % may win, but less than 50 % of those winners are going to do "really well"....Because most loser-day-traders tend to quit quickly (right ?), they tend to lose less money, meaning, there must, by definition, be many more "small money losers", than "big money winners", among day-traders....
We can discuss various facets of this all day (pun intended), PSY-chologically, but, there are now too many people are 'new' at this, and/or are trying to make 'day trading' their full-time livelihood, to warrant this as a logical and attainable endeavor, versus 'regular' trading/investing, while keeping one's job/business....The coming "Wade C ook effect" will also likely eventually hurt many people, over time, sentiment-wise, as they drop out, turn off, get impatient, have family pressure, or lose, then get angry at his teachings....
While this point will upset many people, the fact is, that "day trading" is often just a veiled attempt by some lazy people, to "avoid hard, or physical or corporate work"-type activities (most retirees excluded)....Sure, "a small percentage" of such traders WILL do well, and WILL attain their dreams by doing it --- but the vast majority will fail, creating a ground-swell of bad feelings about "the market", which can only hurt the industry, ahead...Note, this recent growth of 'day-trading' differs from other normal, long-existing, historical types of endeavors in equities and commodities markets, in that the 'attention span' has been shortened so much, for millions of people, their disappearance over time WILL have a negative effect for some businesses, and stocks, as they fall out or quit or lose money or lose interest....Yet, what is most interesting, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., is that the 'patterns' of behavior among people, and chart formations, remain similar to how they have always been, dig ? Just some thoughts for you....
As far as possibly holding "brokerage firms" 100 % responsible for day-traders' behavior (and mostly only their losses, not their gains, get it ?), this is symptomatic of the general (and very unfortunate in the main) litigiousness you are already aware of, but more, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., while there are many issues involved, Primarily, this points to how more people are NOT taking proper responsibility for THEIR decisions, (in)actions, intellectual laziness, impatience, unrealism, lack of work ethic, and waning morality which pervade our existence, yes ? Last, the whole concept of 'day-taraders' is, supposedly, by their not holding anything overnite (or even for more than a few minutes) they supposedly have eliminated much risk --- which is NOT true, statistically--- and/but, they have also simultaneously, cut their potential as well, right ?, since they also have no opportunity to MAKE money from the next days' opening price moves, or garner longer-term price moves, yes ?
Plus, they have to sit and watch their computers all day long, worrying about every little price move, purposely increasing their blood pressure and stress, and, hurting their eyes and necks and hands, etc. Free enterprise and free activity choice are often a very good thing, and if they can do it, to the degree expected, fine for them....But I still have yet to meet many individuals who have vastly outperformed averages achieved by "more normal" trading approaches....Some of these people have just substituted "external, office, corporate" atmospheres, with possible benefits, like, matched pensions, insurance, sociality, etc., for a "room-based" activity, which also says a lot, PSY-chologically, about many of these people, which I will not go into, here....
Once this group of "I want big-things-for-nothing, guaranteed, and right NOW" -type traders fades (and they WILL), we can get back to basics: quiet, consistent, repeating patterns, of human, media, and chart-patterns....Does this make sense to you ? Individuals having more and more useful information, is great for all, overall....But this whole 'dozens of trades intraday' churning thing, does not help much of anyone....even most of the B-firms used don't make money, even with all that activity....have I got this right ? 'nuff said.
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding, and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, I have not had time to give more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real valuable "Booklets"....Besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets, I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a stock herein
may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at any
given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in sec.
(3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen or
fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then is pulling back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it
pulls back towards $ 6 again,. without breaking its original pattern, is remains
a buy (sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. 3,
ilisutrates this helpful item....It is very simple, as I have said umpteen times:
all suggested stocks remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original
prices, in the future, provided their original chart pattern is still intact....
period.
Plus, as you have seen among "repeats" in sec. 3, often, a stock WILL
sometimes return to its original actionable price levels, and some will end up
"revalidating" after initial slight breaks of patterns, which is also of little
consequence, since your transaction costs are so low, and you have eliminated all
emotions from the process, you can always get back in, at those times, yes ?
(plus, as I taught you, we give a bit more 'leeway' at the special year-end
period, employing a bit less strict/tight stops, right ?)
Remember, the time length of the full trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc., depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential 10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use 1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds, and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
Remember, WE tend to ONLY trade long, from stage 1, into stage 2, with stops,
and often miss potential stage 3 rises....and we try to Only get Puts at what we
think might be a stage 4 top, with stops, and often miss stage 6 and 7 drops, but
more on that later....The highest-reliability, reward/risk plays, are in stage 1
and 4, even with occasional stops triggered.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is
also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable,
than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close
stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves....
this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a
"scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by
nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows,
in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ?
and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/
logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct
profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops, and July '98 tops, and drops, have
proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under my
main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my future performance will always match
my excellent, real, actual past track records, as each person will, obviously,
have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things,
properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for understanding. It is also assumed that you
actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE
you "do" anything for real, and that you are aware of their recent highs/lows,
for stops price levels, and past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming
you have learned to eliminate the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from
the decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....